YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9

Gains for Labor in the latest YouGov poll, as private polling records solid support for One Nation in the Hunter region.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for FiftyAcres is more conventional than its previous efforts in that the major parties’ share of the primary vote has increased, with Labor gaining three points to 35% without biting into the Coalition’s 34%. Of the others, the Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is steady on 9%, the Nick Xenophon Team is down one to 3%, “Christian parties” are steady on 3%, Katter’s Australian Party is steady on 1%, and others are down two to 3%. Despite Labor’s improvement on the primary vote, two-party preferred is unchanged at 50-50 due to weaker respondent-allocated preference flows to Labor, of 67% from Greens voters, 22% from One Nation voters and 50% from the rest. With preference flows more like last year’s election, at which Labor got 82% of Greens preferences and 49% of everybody else’s, Labor would lead 54-46.

Also in the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull has a 37-29 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, compared with 34-27 last time. A high “not sure” result has been a feature of the pollster’s form in this area.

• Head-to-head questions on leadership attributes found Bill Shorten leading Malcolm Turnbull 30-17 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians; Turnbull leading 28-20 on being a strong leader; and Shorten leading 24-22 on sticking to what he believes in. For a lot more of this sort of thing, I had a paywalled article on Crikey which placed the detailed leadership attributes polling of Essential Research into broader perspective.

• Support for same-sex marriage was at at 59%, with 33% opposed. Eighty per cent rated themselves likely participants in the postal survey compared with 13% for unlikely, but there are no breakdowns for the yes and no camps.

• Sixty-six per cent favoured the proposition that “Australia should move towards more alternative energy source (e.g. wind or solar)” over an alternative, that “Australia should continue to use coal-fired power stations”.

• Forty-three per cent of respondents thought it likely a country would be attacked with a nuclear weapon during their lifetime, compared with 44% for unlikely.

Elsewhere:

• Progressive think thank the Australia Institute has polled the Hunter region seats of Hunter and Shortland, to gauge the impact of AGL’s decision to close the locally situated Liddell coal-fired power station. On two-party preferred, Labor holds respective leads of 60-40 and 58-42, which compare with 62.5-37.5 and 59.9-40.1 at the last election. The other story is that the primary votes show the One Nation well into double digits in both seats. After including results of the follow-up prompt for the undecided, primary votes in Hunter are Labor 44.1% (51.8% at the election), Nationals 21.9% (26.3%), Greens 7.3% (7.1%) and One Nation 15.8%. In Shortland, the results are Labor 44.8% (51.2%), Liberal 26.5% (35.2%), Greens 7.8% (9.5%) and One Nation 14.3%. Despite everything, the poll finds more support than oppose AGL’s decision, and that renewables are heavily favoured over coal. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL on Friday and Saturday nights, from respective samples of 714 and 643. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

Sky News reports that polling conducted by the “no” campaign has support for yes down over the first ten days of the campaign from 67% to 60%, although there’s no insight into how this was conducted or by whom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,776 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9”

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  1. senthorun: It’s telling that #VoteYES repudiates its non-existent associations with violence but #VoteNO continues to attack us with impunity. Far out. twitter.com/joshgnosis/sta…

    joshgnosis: Contrary to what was inferred last night, Sky News now reports that the man who allegedly assaulted Abbott said nothing about marriage.

  2. Boerwar @ #1395 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 1:45 pm

    DG

    It is an interesting question. My gut view is that once the citizenry starts to assault their politicians, democracy is at risk. If it is OK for the Left to physically assault the Abbotts of the world, it must be OK for the Right to assault the Albos of the world.

    IMO, where it all ends is not very good for democracy.

    Ok. No argument from me on that one, however my question was based on civilians attacking civilians.

    Does that change your view at all, or do you believe that the same principle should apply across the board.

  3. Boerwar – I made no assumptions about your leanings, as I already knew you were a supporter. Furthermore, I agree with the your last point: most of the attacks on GG’s religion HAVE been way over the top – but when it comes to conservative men experiencing vitriol, I’m playing the world’s smallest violin.

    They need to suck it up, just like every other minority groups have been doing since forever. Besides, all the sound and fury from the no campaign is pure artifice, and they are cynically using religion to that effect.

    As an aside, I vehemently agree that tarring all religious folk with the same brush is a massive error. Both my parents, and their friends, are quite religious and have always been highly supportive of myself and my relationship.

  4. boomy1

    FMD.

    In my case I raced out and posted it as soon as I got the form. As for my religious friends I knew that they were going to vote ‘yes’ before they had even told me they were going to do so.

    They are good people.

    Now, have YOU secretly voted ‘No’?

    Go on, prove that you did not!

  5. Boerwar @ #1380 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 3:24 pm

    Yabba

    You are dancing at shadows. I was quite specific about three things, which you persistently ignore.

    1. I referred to the RC in Australia, not anywhere or everywhere else. (The situation in the Philippines and elsewhere, for example, is atrocious.)

    2. I stated that the RC in the past was an organisation that protected pedophiles and, in doing so, routinely made the suffering of their victims worse. I should know. I gave evidence Project Argo which contributed to two perps going to jail.

    3. I also stated that, with the heightened scruitiny, improved reporting procedures, improved behaviour guidelines, mandatory reporting to the civil authorities, and heightened awareness of parents, there are no recent reports of child sexual abuse by catholic priests in Australia.

    Neither you, nor Guytaur not Yabba have been able to point to any evidence that RC priest in Australia are currently carrying out child sexual abuse.

    The notions that religious organisations cannot or will not reform is ludicrous.

    I agree with much of what you have to say, BW.

    HOWEVER, you cannot state No. 3. and then unequivocally conclude that the Catholic Church has cleaned up its act.

    Just because there has not been any “recent reports of child sexual abuse by catholic priests in Australia” does not mean it is still not occurring.

    I mean, that’s the whole idea of child abuse. It never comes out until years later, because of grooming, threats, etc. and the reluctance of people like you, as youngsters, not willing, or able, to come forward to attest to what they witnessed until years later.

    By then the damage is done. And it just does not mean it is still happening.

    These bastards, not just the clergy, will keep on adjusting . . .

  6. Shellbell

    What’s ‘awesome’ is the stupidity of people sending stuff using work e-mail addresses and face book pages and then wondering why their employer gets ‘annoyed’.

  7. Boerwar @ #1387 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 3:37 pm

    People keep leaping to various conclusions about my views and then slaying me on the basis of their leaps of imagination.

    Just to clarify:


    11. I believe that the language and framing used to attack GG has been over the top, disrespectful, unjustified and vicious.

    Yeah, right. Just like GG’s routine behaviour.

  8. ‏ @YaThinkN · 7m7 minutes ago

    and… SKY now goes to Karina from the No campaign for comment…
    AGAIN! Your own bloody colleague confirmed with staffer NO mention of #SSM

  9. DG

    An even harder question, IMO and the answer might need to be a plastic, it all depends.

    For example, I believe that pressure for some successful social reforms has involved a mixture of ‘reasonable’ reformers with small bands of ‘irrational’ and violent reformers working on the outside. The mainstream gets into bed with the reasonable ones because the irrational ones frighten them.

    Not at all easy, IMO.

    OTOH, I think I would stick with the general principle that the less political violence in a democracy the better it is for the democracy. And vice versa.

  10. ‘CTar1

    Shellbell

    What’s ‘awesome’ is the stupidity of people sending stuff using work e-mail addresses and face book pages and then wondering why their employer gets ‘annoyed’.’

    I still sweat blood about the time I as a very, very junior APS person, faxed a draft brief to the Shadow instead of to the Minister.

  11. Oh FCS. The headbutter wore a YES badge.

    What else could it mean, other that he was a ME supporter!

    And as Andrew Bolt solemnly claimed last night, wtte that alleged perp had tatts, shaved head, etc., not someone you would normally associate with the YES vote.

    That sounded a bit suss to me.

  12. k2

    I agree with you to a degree. My point is that if there was the sort of extensive child sexual abuse going on now that was going on, say, 20 years ago, it would be being reported in significant rates. It isn’t.

    You are right to point out that the RC church having cleaned up its act is not a 100% thing. It is a matter of degree and my view is that it is of a very significant degree.

  13. JD

    Saying using religion to oppose Same Sex Marriage which is marriage equality is not attacking all the religious. There are a lot of religious people supporting the yes case. e.g. Fr Rod Bower.

    Its only thin skinned people saying this is attacking all religious people.

    Just as stating views about the catholic church is not attacking all religious. Its not even attacking all christians. Not that I call them attacks. I cll them pointing out facts.

    BW disagrees but thats his problem. Not mine. The facts are clear despite his denial.

    The child abuse royal commission was very clear. The primary cause was cannon law being seen as above secular law. The catholic church is s ticking to this at least with Bishop Denis Hart.

    Thats it thats all the attack on religion there has been.

    The argument that you cannot use religion to discriminate against gay people. Thats been expanded into an attack onto all religion by BW.

    If it was an attack it was a very specific attack on a particular church hierarchy.

  14. I still sweat blood about the time I as a very, very junior APS person, faxed a draft brief to the Shadow instead of to the Minister.

    ROFL

  15. kezza2 @ #1419 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 4:02 pm

    Oh FCS. The headbutter wore a YES badge.

    What else could it mean, other that he was a ME supporter!

    And as Andrew Bolt solemnly claimed last night, wtte that alleged perp had tatts, shaved head, etc., not someone you would normally associate with the YES vote.

    That sounded a bit suss to me.

    An Optus employee! Seems obvious to me.

  16. BW The Royal Commission has reported that, at a conservative estimate, around one in every thirteen of members of the religious hierarchies of the Australian Roman Church was involved in the abuse of minors. What proportion of them have been brought before a civil court? A tiny proportion. Why? Because the church and its various ‘orders’, including many of the current ‘leaders’, protected the perpetrators, and used all of their ‘god given’ persuasive powers to silence the victims.

    The organisation betrayed its followers, and continues to do so. What their legal representatives are doing, as directly reported to me, right now, is effectively torture. Very similar to what our esteemed foreign minister allegedly (good word, that) did to Hardy’s mesothelioma victims. Wait them out (oh, so slowly), challenge the expert evidence, beat them down, until, hopefully, the victim dies. And, of course, force their silence, no matter what, so that BW never gets to hear about it.

  17. Have not been on here for a while but needed to see what the left of the lefts views would be on the Tony Abbott’s alleged assault and true to form you have not let me down. Please read Mark Kenny’s piece in the age. Tony Abbott ‘assault’ a gift to the ‘no’ case, plain and simple. Have a read of the first few paragraphs, recognise anyone?

  18. bemused @ #1422 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 4:06 pm

    kezza2 @ #1419 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 4:02 pm

    Oh FCS. The headbutter wore a YES badge.

    What else could it mean, other that he was a ME supporter!

    And as Andrew Bolt solemnly claimed last night, wtte that alleged perp had tatts, shaved head, etc., not someone you would normally associate with the YES vote.

    That sounded a bit suss to me.

    An Optus employee! Seems obvious to me.

    Didn’t think of that. But what sort of Optus employee has a shaved head, tatts, etc.?

    Fck this is crazy.

  19. seearjay: #Abbott’s determination to link his assault with #YesToEquality is like #LyleShelton blaming federal pollies for the #ACL car explosion!

  20. kezza2 @ #1427 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 4:09 pm

    bemused @ #1422 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 4:06 pm

    kezza2 @ #1419 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 4:02 pm

    Oh FCS. The headbutter wore a YES badge.

    What else could it mean, other that he was a ME supporter!

    And as Andrew Bolt solemnly claimed last night, wtte that alleged perp had tatts, shaved head, etc., not someone you would normally associate with the YES vote.

    That sounded a bit suss to me.

    An Optus employee! Seems obvious to me.

    Didn’t think of that. But what sort of Optus employee has a shaved head, tatts, etc.?

    Fck this is crazy.

    The type that would allegedly biff Abbott! Obviously.

  21. Yabba88

    We agree that the RC was peccant in the past. So, there is no need for you to prove that again.

    There are no current reports of child sexual abuse by RC priests.

    Until you come up with some evidence, your suspicions are baseless.

  22. YaThinkN: And if you watch SKY and follow ABC you would think only YES campaign can be held responsible for ‘randoms’ acts ARGH! twitter.com/Paul_Karp/stat…

    Paul_Karp: Regret the plebiscite? Turnbull: it was an election commitment. Have been some “ugly incidents” but they’re “a tiny minority” #auspol

  23. ‘shellbell

    I faxed a guilty plea to the Burwood branch of Westpac instead of Burwood police prosecutors’

    So, did they flee the country?

  24. BW There were virtually no reports in Ballarat, or Newcastle, when the behaviour was rampant. Don’t pretend to be obtuse. The abuse of victims is, as I have pointed out, continuing.

  25. There is a “Straight Lives Matter” rally being held tomorrow at Green Park in Sydney, near my home. Next to the Gay and Lesbian Holocaust Memorial. I understand it’s been organised by some far-right loons, so I suspect there’ll be some violence. Right in time for discussion on Insiders.

  26. ‘Yabba88

    BW There were virtually no reports in Ballarat, or Newcastle, when the behaviour was rampant. Don’t pretend to be obtuse. The abuse of victims is, as I have pointed out, continuing.

    I am trying to be polite, but are making it difficult.

    I have already told you repeatedly that I agree that the RC was bad. You also seem to have ignored the fact that I gave evidence to that effect in the Royal Commission process and that evidence subsequently helped jail a couple of the perps. So spare me the misery guts side of things. I was there.

    Your assumption that nothing has changed since then is false for the following reasons:

    1. The RC has acknowledged its guilt.
    2. The RC has set in place various process and standards that did not then exist. This includes mandatory reporting to the police of child sexual abuse references.
    3. RC parents no longer accept priestly omnipotence.
    4. RC parents are alert, aware and ready to be alarmed.
    5. Lines of responsibility and accountability are much more clear than they used to be.
    6. Literally hundreds of perps from that era have died, been kicked out or are in jail.
    7. Priests are no longer given automatic, privileged and isolated access to potential victims.

    I repeat, until you provide some (any!) evidence of current child sexual abuse, you are making baseless accusations.

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