Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. zoomster,
    Putting the shoe on the other foot, it seems to me that being Mr Reasonable isn’t winning Bill any favours from the electors.

    Anyway, he doesn’t have to be spiteful, simply put the verbal knife between Malcolm’s ribs and twist for maximum effect, the exact same way the Coalition are successfully, it seems from the above evidence, are doing to him.

    For if there is anything that I would put my money on, it is that Labor better not be too complacent about their present lead in the polls, as a concerted effort against Bill can bleed into that quite easily if they are not careful and let it.

  4. Wow! This crackpot central with Terry McCrann.
    Paywalled so I won’t bother with a link, google the headline.

    Renewables ruin energy security

    There are two overarching things to be said about the disastrous mess Australia has got into with electricity, which should be cheap, plentiful and reliable in an energy-rich country and is increasingly none of those.

    The first is that the primary cause, the secondary cause and indeed every cause is the mandatory imposition of the use of so-called but utterly misleading “renewable energy”. The second is that it has all been entirely self-inflicted: we chose to do it to ourselves.

    The choosing started with John Howard, who, like his great political mentor Margaret Thatcher, at a seemingly critical moment in the heat of political battle, bent to the hurricane-force winds of global warming hysteria.

    She at least subsequently publicly recanted; her Down Under acolyte has never properly done so.

    It was his government that embraced the “feel-good” ban on incandescent light globes — the easy “seeming to do something” suggestion of an ambitious then-environment minister named Malcolm, cooked up in the green laboratory that was and remains the department.

    Ah, if only it had remained that simple, that pointless — making even less difference than absolute zero to the world’s temperature or even our own.

    It was his government that set us on the path to the forced incorporation of ever-increasing inputs of especially wind into our national electricity generation. Again, when wind was barely 2-3 per cent of supply, the fetish could be comfortably accommodated, barely noticed, both in price and supply terms.

    Indeed, after Howard, who could then really blame idiots like Opposition Leader Bill Shorten at the national level, and South Australian Premier Jay Weather-dill and his Victorian counterpart Daniel “Hey, hey, how many birds did you kill today?” Andrews at the state level, taking it to the next illogical stage.

    You offer 20 per cent renewables? That’s pathetic; we’ll enforce 50 per cent.
    —

  5. Interesting that NZ banned ritual slaughter including Kosher and Halal in 2010. Australia now exports virtually all this meat to NZ.
    I don’t think a ban like this would go down well in the PMs electorate

  6. C@t and Zoom

    Shorten always comes over best when he is relaxed and smiling. Even in QT he needs to turn down the volume a bit.
    (Just my view.)

  7. Obviously Terry McRann doesn’t believe in using freely available and pollution-free sources of electricity and working towards making them capable of supplying that energy 24/7.

    Sad.

  10. C@tmomma @ #201 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:19 pm

    zoomster,
    Putting the shoe on the other foot, it seems to me that being Mr Reasonable isn’t winning Bill any favours from the electors.

    Anyway, he doesn’t have to be spiteful, simply put the verbal knife between Malcolm’s ribs and twist for maximum effect, the exact same way the Coalition are successfully, it seems from the above evidence, are doing to him.

    For if there is anything that I would put my money on, it is that Labor better not be too complacent about their present lead in the polls, as a concerted effort against Bill can bleed into that quite easily if they are not careful and let it.

    Bill needs to let others do the dirty work and stand above the fray.

  12. The downturn in better PM figures for Shorten came about in last few weeks. Probably because Malcolm had opportunities to look prime ministerly with N. Korea, Australia day beat up, statues, trying to act tough on power companies etc.

    I don’t think there is anything substantial that has changed and it’s mostly fluff. In an election period Shorten can and will close the gap because Labor has positioned itself on popular policies.

  13. Bemused,
    Bill needs to let others do the dirty work and stand above the fray.

    Well then, he needs to get those others to up their game. The Coalition are getting away with blue murder when it comes to mischaracterising Bill. Also, no one in Labor seems to be able to put a put-down of the Coalition into every media appearance effectively.

    You don’t have to be nasty. ‘Mr Harbourside Mansion’ wasn’t nasty. It WAS effective.

  14. Alt-Shorten seems a little rattled today after that terrible PPM poll.

    Let’s face it, the ALP would be much better off installing Albo as LOTO.

  15. Shorten’s approval rating ? Remember JWH attracting the headline “Mr Eighteen Percent. Why does this man bother ?” ?. While over the Ditch Helen Clark before becoming PM had at one stage a PPM % roughly equal to the margin of error.

  16. Fairfax seems to be laying the groundwork for a Coalition revival.
    Turnbull tweets his contrived little “aussie values” pic, and this is grounds for a puff piece by Maley.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-prime-ministerial-beer-and-baby-controversy–fake-news-at-its-finest-20170911-gyesxc.html
    Then we get the world’s greatest treasurer treatment for Morrison, heading up treasury for the ” do nothing except tax cuts for the wealthy” government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-no-mistakes-scott-morrison-has-grander-ambitions-20170910-gyehd4.html

  18. C@tmomma @ #213 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:39 pm

    Bemused,
    Bill needs to let others do the dirty work and stand above the fray.

    Well then, he needs to get those others to up their game. The Coalition are getting away with blue murder when it comes to mischaracterising Bill. Also, no one in Labor seems to be able to put a put-down of the Coalition into every media appearance effectively.

    You don’t have to be nasty. ‘Mr Harbourside Mansion’ wasn’t nasty. It WAS effective.

    Time and time again, virtually nobody on the Labour side seem willing or able to engage the coalition at their own game, as though they are intimidated by the media attacks that they will inevitably receive.

    Speaking of Albo, where the hell is he?

    Used to be a great fan, but lately he’s gone soft.

  19. @Trog

    Fairfax loves their messiah “sensible centre Malcolm”. When Malcolm knifed Abbott, for next 3 months they were literally worshipping the guy.

  21. Oakeshott Country @ #194 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:05 pm

    The Wikipedia version: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eid_al-Adha
    At least 10 million sacrificial animals in Pakistan alone and the Haj is not complete for the 2million who undertake it unless they make sacrifice
    A requirement for male heads of families who have the means to sacrifice their best animal. This is apparently to celebrate Abrahams willingness to sacrifice Isiah (or is it Isaac, I forget)

    Jesus was analagized or even actualised as the sacrificial lamb of god.

  22. Rex Douglas (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:39 pm
    Comment #214
    Alt-Shorten seems a little rattled today after that terrible PPM poll.

    Let’s face it, the ALP would be much better off installing Albo as LOTO.

    Still playing the role of court jester I see Rex. But you really need to get some new material. Even the best comedians can’t survive on the same old stuff day in and day out.

  23. adrian @ #218 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:46 pm

    C@tmomma @ #213 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:39 pm

    Bemused,
    Bill needs to let others do the dirty work and stand above the fray.

    Well then, he needs to get those others to up their game. The Coalition are getting away with blue murder when it comes to mischaracterising Bill. Also, no one in Labor seems to be able to put a put-down of the Coalition into every media appearance effectively.

    You don’t have to be nasty. ‘Mr Harbourside Mansion’ wasn’t nasty. It WAS effective.

    Time and time again, virtually nobody on the Labour side seem willing or able to engage the coalition at their own game, as though they are intimidated by the media attacks that they will inevitably receive.

    Speaking of Albo, where the hell is he?

    Used to be a great fan, but lately he’s gone soft.

    No-one else is good enough… Bill is the messiah !

  27. Jesus was analagized or even actualised as the sacrificial lamb of god.

    Right on. Jesus was the lamb of God who takes away the sins of the world.

    Yep. The people who believe that Jesus was the sacrificial trade off for original sin and who thereby made salvation and heaven a possibility for all humanity are also inordinantly terrified of marriage equality.

    The cross was not a bit of an event in the life and death of Jesus.

    It saved us all from ourselves.

  30. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 21m21 minutes ago

    I’ll give $50 to charity the day the ABC finance crew has a comprehensive report on the true state of financial stress in Australia

  31. poroti @ #215 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:41 pm

    Shorten’s approval rating ? Remember JWH attracting the headline “Mr Eighteen Percent. Why does this man bother ?” ?. While over the Ditch Helen Clark before becoming PM had at one stage a PPM % roughly equal to the margin of error.

    The question in the case of Howard was well put since that was in his first tenure as Leader of the Opposition in the 1980s, in which he lost one election and was removed before he could get to another.

    In fact Opposition Leaders who have polled below 20 as preferred leader, either state or federal, have virtually never won the election that followed (and have usually been removed by their parties before it). The only sort-of winner in that category was Borbidge.

    Shorten is nowhere near that sort of danger zone yet but he is doing worse as preferred leader than he should be after taking into account the 2PP and personal satisfaction ratings for both leaders.

    As for Clark her very bad preferred PM figures were recorded in the lead-up to the 1996 election, which she lost with her party going backwards. Her preferred leader rating improved sharply in the next term but in any case NZ PPM figures aren’t always comparable as they often include more than two leaders.

  32. Looks like a few fireworks are on the way:

    <p.Labor will step up its attacks on the Turnbull government over the legality of ministerial decisions made by three senior Nationals MPs, including Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, based on new legal advice from two eminent lawyers.

    The advice, prepared by respected barristers Matthew Collins QC and Matthew Albert, raises the possibility that any decisions the three made as ministers after October 20, 2016 could be open to challenge if the High Court finds they were invalidly elected.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/uncharted-territory-labor-readies-new-attack-on-nationals-trios-ministerial-decisions-20170911-gyewoo.html</a.

  33. Adrian,
    Time and time again, virtually nobody on the Labour side seem willing or able to engage the coalition at their own game, as though they are intimidated by the media attacks that they will inevitably receive.

    Yep.

    Though it is preferable to the ‘Nobody Likes Him’ attacks. Better to try and step up the free character assessments of Turnbull. As the guy doing the precis of the papaers on ABC Breakfast this morning said of the photo of Turnbull with a beer and baby in hand, it was likely a set up for the camera to increase his ‘Everyman’ appeal.

    So THAT’S what I would say if I were Bill. Viz, ‘Well that photo looked to me like the PM was trying to tell people he really isn’t Mr Harbourside Mansion at all. But he is, really. At home it’s more likely to be a nice Red wine with dinner and dinner guests on the A List of Sydney society.’

  34. Amanda takes a swipe at the lycra wearer et al:

    I’ve had quite enough of some Liberals claiming to represent our base, claiming to speak on its behalf. They just anoint themselves as spokespeople. Some clearly are not smart enough to see that history is the great story of inevitable change. Why else would you try to rebuild the world your parents or grandparents lived in?

    Well, they don’t speak for me or the vast majority of the Liberals I know.

    This has been on my mind after hearing some more conservative members talk about the need to look after our “base”. Of course every political movement does that. Labor, Liberal, the Greens, Get Up!. The question is whether you know what your base is. Do you think, as some people do, that it’s made of people like you ?

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/the-liberals-i-know-are-not-stuck-in-a-time-warp-20170908-gydwoe.html

  36. lizzie @ #230 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 2:00 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 21m21 minutes ago

    I’ll give $50 to charity the day the ABC finance crew has a comprehensive report on the true state of financial stress in Australia

    Hell, I’ll give $50 to charity the day the ABC political crew has a comprehensive report on the true state of politics in Australia.

    Or $100 to charity when their environmental or science division (they have one?) has a comprehensive report on the impact of global warming in this country.

    Amazing how their one science program studiously ignores this biggest of elephants in the room.

  38. I will be glad to see the smirk on the face Member for Chisholm wiped off at the next election, i used to think Griggs and MacNamara were annoying.

  39. The Silver Bodgie @ #239 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 2:14 pm

    I will be glad to see the smirk on the face Member for Chisholm wiped off at the next election, i used to think Griggs and MacNamara were annoying.

    I think that will depend on Labor’s choice of candidate and how good a campaign is run.
    I would be even keener to see her neighbour Sukkar go.

  42. Actually, Bill’s response to that photo was very smart.

    It is quite obvious that the Libs are trying to lift MT out of his doldrums (therefore the party) with that ‘I’m just a regular guy’ photo. And perhaps to pull at the heartstrings of women (awww, isn’t that cute).

    But by saying ‘Let him be a grandpa’ he is both aging him, and showing empathy with the ‘awwww, isn’t that cute’ demographic.

    Had he trashed the photo as either staged, or beer/baby = bad, he’d have offended some who might be sitting on the fence.

  43. ‘Turnbull is “urbane and intelligent” and “the most intelligent man in the room” according to Katherine Murphy.’

    To be fair, she is not alone in this opinion. Malcolm thinks this too – and I’m sure he’d tell us that Lucy does, as well.

  44. Player One @ #241 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 12:21 pm

    C@tmomma @ #233 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 2:07 pm

    Better to try and step up the free character assessments of Turnbull.

    Turnbull is “urbane and intelligent” and “the most intelligent man in the room” according to Katherine Murphy.

    Going back quite a while I worked at a university and got to know a fair few academics and it was my observation that the smartest people often had difficulty playing nicely with others. Just like Brian (reportedly).

  45. zoomster @ #198 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:14 pm

    I don’t see any reason for Shorten to get down and dirty, or compete in the realm of personality politics. We’ve had too many Messiahs on both sides recently.

    What I think is an imperative is that the myth that the Cons are the better managers of the economy has to be countered all the time. It’s deeply embedded , and Labor needs to learn how to spruik its credentials , clean, dirty or any which was but loose.

    The latest figures of preferred economic managers are 39% v 28% and they parallel preferred Treasurer. I understand it’s hard to assess treasurer potential when in opposition, but basically Morrison has been talking complete crap, and Tony Burke making enormous sense in dealing with the ballooning debt and deficit crisis, that particularly effective bull shit slogan from Abbott and that stumble bum Hockey, to which Labor seemed blindsided, aided and abetted I know by the Dark Forces.

    And now they are playing the energy crisis with the Blackout Bill meme. It cuts through, the implication that the back pocket pain from energy prices is … drum roll … all Labor’s fault.

  46. Perhaps the ATO could employ the Pizza Hut app to massively increase tax revenue:

    Sunday night dinner did not go to plan for Pizza Hut customers, when a technical glitch on the chain’s new website and app left many overcharged and without the pizzas they ordered.

    Customers took to social media to vent their frustration after being charged up to five times for a single order despite being met with error messages saying the order had not gone through.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/pizza-hut-app-technical-glitch-charges-customers-up-to-five-times-20170911-gyew81.html

  47. Don’t forget that Malcolm is soooooo eloquent. I mean, he has memorised and quote Plato ffs – he MUST be intelligent.

    The fact that he always takes 3 to 5 goes at starting a sentence (drives me absolutely nuts!) has nothing to do with it, of course.

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