Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I know Crikey runs on a shoestring, but if I can put together a website that is fully functional on all platforms I do not feel I should have to modify my browser with add-ons (with attendant security issues) to get a fully functional Pollbludger. I pay full freight for Crikey and I expect full operation.

    Sorry, but that is how I feel.

  2. Ronzy
    Regarding the current format of the blog, since “the load rest of comments” so you get all the comments on one very long page without having to continually loading more I have found navigating to a particular “time” quite manageable.

    That is a useful feature. However sometimes blocks of comments will (a) appear in reverse time order or (b) will be duplicated.

    A few random comments are still appearing in tiny font on my computer but not as many as before.

  3. Nearly 4,000 sheep and more than 500 cattle died while being shipped overseas in the first half of 2017, a report tabled to federal parliament has said.

    One particularly deadly voyage, where almost 100 cattle died on an eight-day trip, is under investigation by the Department of Agriculture and the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/01/more-than-4000-livestock-die-in-export-trade-over-six-months-report-says?CMP=share_btn_tw

  4. Just watched Lyle Shelton (in bits) on SKY and it is apparent he really fears temptation and wants to eradicate all forms of temptations so he might be righteous in his ‘god’s’ eyes.

  5. We have to assume now that none of our records are safae.

    Methods reported to the consumer watchdog’s Scamwatch program also include con-artists pretending to be from the tax office, chasing fines.

    Some have posed as Telstra employees, contacting people out of the blue to say hackers are trying to access their devices and the iTunes cards will be used as a “trap” to stop the breach.

    Some victims have been tricked into buying thousands of dollars worth of gift cards, including a woman who thought she was paying for her broadband connection.

    “If someone asks you to pay for anything using an iTunes gift card, it is a scam. There are never any circumstances where a legitimate business or government department will ask for payment this way,” ACCC deputy chair Delia Rickard said in a statement.

    The con-artist’s calls from a Canberra number, his knowledge of some of Richard’s details, and the initial recorded call made things seem legitimate.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/itunes-gift-card-scam-targeting-pensioners-accc-warning-20170910-gyebrq.html

  6. Our ‘leaders’ are happy campers at the moment.

    Joyce complaining about SSM protesters/campaigners and Turnbull looking like he’d rather be naked in the open at the South Pole than being trapped in Samoa with Peter O’Neill giving him grief.

    🙂

  7. lizzie (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 11:54 am
    Comment #158
    Boerwar

    I have never agreed with live export for slaughter. I don’t care if farmers cry for months. It’s cruel.

    Agreed. It’s disgraceful – and all because of some stupid religious bullshit.

  8. From Simon Benson in ‘The Australian’


    …Trade Minister Steve Ciobo will issue a direction this week to Australia’s export credit agency to broaden its mandate and ­extend loans to viable small-to-medium sized onshore resource ventures including coal projects and related infrastructure struggling to secure private-market ­finance.
    …’

  9. Darn
    Unless you worship the almighty dollar, religion has got precious to do with it.

    Shipping animals live and slaughtering them o/s is cheaper than slaughtering them using Australian labour in Australia.

  10. Boerwar (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 11:49 am
    Comment #155
    lizzie
    The RSPCA is now complicit in industrial-scale cruelty to animals.

    They always have been. Battery hens is another classic example.

  11. Darn

    It’s disgraceful – and all because of some stupid religious bullshit.

    Not entirely. We have been exporting frozen/chilled ‘halal’ meat to those markets for years. I suspect someone making more money out of selling “fresh” meat is in there somewhere as a reason.

  12. Trade Minister Steve Ciobo

    Another Lib politician who we haven’t heard much of recently. Lots of the Turnbull supporting variety have gone to ground.

  13. Joyce must be one of Canavan’s ‘delicate little flowers’.

    “I don’t want to be yelled at by groups who tell me I’m somehow less than human if I’ve got a different view from them and sometimes that comes from both sides,” Mr Joyce told ABC radio.

  14. The export of live sheep for slaughter has been banned in New Zealand since 2003, cattle since 2007. Doesn’t seem to have hurt them.

    For those interested, what the consequences were from the bans .

    Live animal trade: the New Zealand experience

    Geraldine Doogue talks to the former New Zealand Agriculture Minister who introduced a ban on exporting New Zealand livestock for slaughter in 2007. He talks about the reasons for the decision and the economic consequences.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/live-animal-trade-the-new-zealand-experience/2917316

  15. In his book Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell describes a double-speak totalitarian state where most of the population accepts “the most flagrant violations of reality, because they never fully grasped the enormity of what was demanded of them, and were not sufficiently interested in public events to notice what was happening. By lack of understanding they remained sane.”

    Orwell could have been writing about climate change and policymaking.

    International agreements talk of limiting global warming to 1.5–2°C, but in reality they set the world on a path of 3–5°C. Goals are reaffirmed, only to be abandoned. Coal, by definition, is “clean”. Just 1°C of warming is already dangerous, but this cannot be said. The planetary future is hostage to myopic, national self-interest. Action is delayed on the assumption that as yet unproven technologies will save the day, decades hence. The risks are existential, but it is “alarmist” to say so. A one-in-two chance of missing a goal is normalised as reasonable.

    The irresponsible invective passing for political debate on climate and energy policy is replete with assurances that politicians are devoted to ensuring the security of the Australian people. Nothing could be further from the truth. Those assurances are meaningless unless climate risk is honestly addressed and that must happen long before we are confronted with our own equivalent of Irma. At present that risk is totally ignored.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/11/hostage-to-myopic-self-interest-climate-science-is-watered-down-under-political-scrutiny?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  16. Boerwar (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 12:04 pm
    Comment #165
    Darn
    Unless you worship the almighty dollar, religion has got precious to do with it.

    Shipping animals live and slaughtering them o/s is cheaper than slaughtering them using Australian labour in Australia.

    BW

    It seems we both may be right to some extent (see below). But I do concede that my perception that it was purely religiously based was wrong. Thank you for the correction.

    Money is a driving factor today, as always. Among the many reasons why animals are shipped over great distances is the fact that the cost of transporting animals is lower than the cost of shipping feed. Another is that live animals are shipped for slaughter abroad to take advantage of the opportunity to label the meat misleadingly. For example, producers find it easier to claim that meat from animals slaughtered in the Middle East is in accordance with Islamic halal regulations, whether or not it is true

  17. VE
    Germany – the CDU is not in majority government but a grand coalition with the SDP. This was forced on Merckle when the CDU’s ally, the FDP, fell under the 5% bar to enter the Bundestag
    A SDP/Gruen coalition looked likely in March when anger against Merckle’s refugee policy was at its greatest. Now it looks like the CDU/FDP will win in a land slide.
    I do not think a left government is likely in Germany until the SDP and Gruen come to some arrangement with Die Linke (a grouping of far left West Germans and the residual of the East German Communists)

  18. lizzie (Block)
    Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 11:32 am
    Comment #154
    Nearly 4,000 sheep and more than 500 cattle died while being shipped overseas in the first half of 2017

    Poor bastards. And they were probably the lucky ones.

  19. Gabrielle Deydier’s book about being obese has ignited her native France. She tells Stefanie Marsh how her life has been a battle against ‘grossophobia’, discrimination and verbal abuse – until now

    Gabrielle has two degrees, a pleasant and open manner and weighs 150kg, or 23½ stone. She also has the misfortune of both being French and living in France, which means that her physical appearance counts for everything, including her employability. In France, she says (and all the facts of her experience seem to bear this out), being fat is considered to be a grotesque self-inflicted disability. At any given time, 80% of Frenchwomen are thought to be on a diet. In the south of the country, there’s a lively gastric-band industry (50,000 operations a year).

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/10/gabrielle-deydier-fat-in-france-abuse-grossophobia-book-women

  20. I understand that a portion of our lamb exports are for the Eid slaughter when every righteous Muslim male is required to slit the throat of a sacrificial animal.

  21. Remember he(Lyle Shelton) said that if gays get married then he risked not having any way of being differentiated.

    No, I think it will be entirely obvious to all that he is a bigot.

  22. Boerwar @ #164 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 12:02 pm

    From Simon Benson in ‘The Australian’


    …Trade Minister Steve Ciobo will issue a direction this week to Australia’s export credit agency to broaden its mandate and ­extend loans to viable small-to-medium sized onshore resource ventures including coal projects and related infrastructure struggling to secure private-market ­finance.
    …’

    Ciobo and the Coalition abandoning all pretence to not being full-on Socialists in a Command and Control government.

  23. German SDP seems to be suffering from being the junior partner in a coalition. Hard to campaign against the government when you are part of it.

  24. OC
    That may be a practice in some place but I can find no link that says it is a religious requirement.

    In any case there are only 1 billion sheep and around 1.6 billion muslims, sheep would quickly become extinct if your idea was applied with gusto.

  25. Ms Merkel is rather well-known for knocking off opposition party policies and putting them to bed.

    Despite decades of being against ME, Ms Merkel recently led the passing of ME legalization in Germany.

    From the announcement on Monday to the passing of the legislation on Friday, it took a week.

    This happened a couple of months ago.

    Germany is still there, BTW.

  26. Boerwar

    Ms Merkel is rather well-known for knocking off opposition party policies and putting them to bed.

    Despite decades of being against ME, Ms Merkel recently led the passing of ME legalization in Germany.

    From the announcement on Monday to the passing of the legislation on Friday, it took a week.

    ************************************************

    Could be all done and dusted in Australia this afternoon by putting the survey question up in parliament …….. and $ 122 million could then go to health, homeless, education …

  27. In the old days, the Libs didn’t have to worry too much about the Nats being a drag on their vote because the Nat leaders were relatively sane (for people with cow-pat brains). But Barney is a completely different kettle of fish. Do people think he’s dragging down the Lib vote?

  28. I think the problem Bill Shorten is having with his approval ratings is down to the fact he doesn’t do derision, personal degradation and contempt as well as the Coalition does. He really hasn’t framed Malcolm Turnbull in a relentlessly negative way to the same extent as the Coalition has done to him.

    Every single media opportunity they are afforded they always insert a crack at him, even if it is essentially unrelated. They’ll draw a long bow and take a pot shot at him.

    I think it’s way past time that Bill Shorten and Labor took off the gloves and started hand to hand combat with the Coalition. No more Mr Nice Guy.

    I can pretty much guarantee that I squelched a lot of votes for a front party for the Liberals in our Council elections because I kept telling people so. Sure, they made complaints about me to the AEC staff, but all I ended up with was a few finger waggings and stern looks. However, I also did my best to make sure they couldn’t get away with their subterfuge.

    Play to win. Not, go along to get along.

  29. antonbruckner11 @ #191 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:04 pm

    In the old days, the Libs didn’t have to worry too much about the Nats being a drag on their vote because the Nat leaders were relatively sane (for people with cow-pat brains). But Barney is a completely different kettle of fish. Do people think he’s dragging down the Lib vote?

    I think he’s doing a fantastic job of dragging down Bill Shorten, quite frankly.

  30. The Wikipedia version: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eid_al-Adha
    At least 10 million sacrificial animals in Pakistan alone and the Haj is not complete for the 2million who undertake it unless they make sacrifice
    A requirement for male heads of families who have the means to sacrifice their best animal. This is apparently to celebrate Abrahams willingness to sacrifice Isiah (or is it Isaac, I forget)

  31. C@tmomma @ #192 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 1:04 pm

    I think the problem Bill Shorten is having with his approval ratings is down to the fact he doesn’t do derision, personal degradation and contempt as well as the Coalition does. He really hasn’t framed Malcolm Turnbull in a relentlessly negative way to the same extent as the Coalition has done to him.

    Every single media opportunity they are afforded they always insert a crack at him, even if it is essentially unrelated. They’ll draw a long bow and take a pot shot at him.

    I think it’s way past time that Bill Shorten and Labor took off the gloves and started hand to hand combat with the Coalition. No more Mr Nice Guy.

    I can pretty much guarantee that I squelched a lot of votes for a front party for the Liberals in our Council elections because I kept telling people so. Sure, they made complaints about me to the AEC staff, but all I ended up with was a few finger waggings and stern looks. However, I also did my best to make sure they couldn’t get away with their subterfuge.

    Play to win. Not, go along to get along.

    This is very true.

    Time and time the media players will let the coalition get away with these attacks while simultaneously complaining that Labor is just as bad as Abbott was. So they have nothing to lose.

  32. KB

    My own concern regarding scrutiny of the MLPS is that it fundamentally differs from normal statistical processes such as the Census in view of the accuracy demands. In a Census process, it is not important whether 18.10% or 18.11% of the residents of a particular suburb identify as Anglicans (for example). But in the Marriage Law Postal Survey, the government’s imposition of a 50% cutoff for same-sex marriage legislation to be brought on means that the normally insignificant difference between 49.999% and 50.001% could, in theory, in the end determine the issue.

    Even if the overall vote is not that close, there is also the likelihood that specific MPs may impose such a cutoff on an electorate or state basis in deciding their vote on a bill to legalise same-sex marriage. In all likelihood the result won’t be so close for the difference between a statistically accurate and an election-level accurate (and scrutinised as such) count to matter, but if it does, there will be trouble.

    I’m sure there will be “highly intelligent” Coalition MPs who will try every trick to cause trouble (and even some from other Parties if they think it worth their while).

  33. 2. If yes to 1, what will happen if a respondent reports that their survey has been stolen (or that they did not receive a survey) after their vote has already been received and processed.
    If an eligible Australian reports that a form has been stolen, the ABS will mark the original barcode as invalid. The ABS will count the replacement form when it is returned, rather than the original form. The processing of valid and invalid forms will be conducted at the end of the collection period so there is no risk the survey return is already processed.

    It is adorable watching the ABS try so hard. So I can invalidate anyone’s ‘vote’ in this ‘election’ if I provide their name to the ABS.

    Run the below code on the last day surveys can be returned.

    for int i=0; i<australianPopulation.size(); i++{

    if australianPopulation[i].getName != Voice Endeavour{
    sendEmail("Hi, my name is"+ australianPopulation[i].getName + ". My survey result has been stolen. Please do not count it, and send a new one to my address");

    }
    }

    Guaranteed 100% 'yes' vote to the ME survey, with 1 vote for and 0 votes against.

  34. I don’t see any reason for Shorten to get down and dirty, or compete in the realm of personality politics. We’ve had too many Messiahs on both sides recently.

    In the end, whether or not people love or hate or are indifferent to the party leader is not as important as whether it wins seats.

  35. A confidentiality breach by the federal government’s $5 billion infrastructure body shows it is now considering loaning public money to two new rail lines supporting mining projects.

    The unintended leak of classified documents by the vaunted Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility shows it has been approached for funding by the proponents of the Balla Balla project, which comprises a port and railway to the Pilbara Iron Ore project in Western Australia. The port, rail line and a new mine are expected to cost about $6 billion.

    To protect the identity of the source, Fairfax Media cannot reveal exactly how it obtained information from the documents. However the method reveals critical shortcomings in the way NAIF handles and secures sensitive information.

  36. @ Oakeshott

    As a kid I always used to look forward to Eid. It was a great day where families get together. Putting aside animal slaughter overall it was fantastic as the day has a charitable spirit where poor get to enjoy meat. I also used to receive a lot of pocket money which was awesome.

    At least where I am from it wasn’t overly religious either, more of a tradition.

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