Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 11
1 2 3 4 … 11

  1. TPOF – There are some links to earlier Kohler articles on Pearls and Irritations. This has been a constant theme with him.

  2. For those of you who read the Raw story article re Pompeo, who clearly is a dangerous ideologue, I hope you wll take a deep breath before rushing to impeachment for Trump.

    Pompeo is Pence’s man. They are friends and share similar values.

    Trump is a fool and a loose cannon but he is NOT a Christian Tea party zealot, unlike Pence.

    If I had to choose between a Tea Party zealot and a bumbling idiot, I go for the idiot. Much safer.

  4. BK
    Check each of the links. I suspect that William (or Crikey) have some weird screening in place to block certain links. If you stick to MSM you should be OK but if their is any unusual one (especially a left leaning link) then excise it and try again.

    Post the excised link separately to see if it is the problem.

    I will go over to the other place to see if I can spot a troublesome link.

  6. guytaur

    Have some respect – dtt is a genius. Therefore she cannot possibly be wrong about anything ever.

    It’s only us lesser minds who don’t appreciate her.

  7. michaelkoziol: The National Mental Health Commission’s statement on the marriage survey mentalhealthcommission.gov.au/our-work/state… pic.twitter.com/xD97QsRAb7

  8. BK

    Nothing obvious, but try excising all the google links and just post the SMH ones. That might at least nrrow down the problem

  9. p
    ‘It can herald a profound transformation of society by making the most pre-political institution a servant of the PC state.’

    Bwahahahaha…

    Our Parliament starts the year with the Lord’s Prayer.

    The RC ran europe for centuries.

    Lying, it appears, is no longer a sin.

  10. Guytaur

    Putin is paying me nothing. Clearly I am underrated. Perhaps I should apply in writing for some funding. I guess the influence I have on hear is worth about 25 cents, but the stamp would cost more.

    Well Zoomster you said it I did not. It does take brains and self awareness to understand hypocrisy, especially when one is engaging in it.

  11. dtt

    ‘It does take brains and self awareness to understand hypocrisy, especially when one is engaging in it.’

    Ah, that explains a lot.

  13. [daretotread
    Guytaur

    Putin is paying me nothing. Clearly I am underrated. Perhaps I should apply in writing for some funding. I guess the influence I have on hear is worth about 25 cents, but the stamp would cost more.]

    I’m sure we could organise some funding, about $250 should buy enough stamps to cover your screen.

  15. What gets me is the persisting belief in an interventional diety. Like the one in the Lord’s Prayer who helps things go lovingly and goodly in Parliaments. One that can intervene. Meddle with / in the business of being (an occupant 0f) a planet. Goo gaaing at sunsets is one thing. But the annihilation of populations as the hands of catastrophes like droughts and earthquakes surely makes some question the goodness of the good loving intervential deity to whom they pray for good things. Like passing exams.

    The one who will stop hurricanes if you get the numbers down onto beach. How many supplicants does god need? Fifty maybe. That should impress god. Get god away from the tele. G of T probably.

    So the rationale behind wipeouts is what exactly. God nodding off for a few months? Gone on holidays to Universe 2Trillion and Nine? Nah. It’s the gays and the wicked in society. The ones who want to help the sick and poor. Not the righteous capitalists. They go bath in the river Jordan. God loves that. And them.

    https://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/15/rupert-murdoch-and-family-find-faith-and-fame-at-the-river-jordan/?mcubz=0

  16. Labor faces revolt from a large section of the white-collar workforce in the lead-up to the next election over plans to limit to $3000 the amount that can be claimed for getting your tax return done.

    Individuals, self-managed superannuation funds, trusts and partnerships will be subject to the cap, which Labor Leader Bill Shorten says will stop “clever” advisers whittling the tax bills of their wealthy clients down to zero.

    He cites 48 taxpayers who earned an average of nearly $2.5 million in 2014-15 yet paid no tax as justification for the cap.

    “One of the biggest deductions claimed was the money they paid to their accountants, averaging over $1 million,” Mr Shorten said in his budget reply speech in May, when he announced the cap.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/tax-advisers-vow-to-fight-bill-shortens-direct-attack-on-their-existence-20170905-gyawbe#ixzz4sK3KZavC

  18. ItzaDream

    I’m not awake enough for a full discussion, but I have always understood that “Man” has free will to behave as stupidly as he likes.

  21. lizzie @ #118 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 9:44 am

    ItzaDream

    I’m not awake enough for a full discussion, but I have always understood that “Man” has free will to behave as stupidly as he likes.

    Stay dozing lizzie. Nothing to see here, except the list of the holy of holies, dressed in white, flowers in the hair, god’s special lovelies – the Murdochs, the Blairs; the Kushners, the Kidmans, et al.

    Key word though was interventional

  23. Much as I feel sorry for William, the sad fact is that this site is just not very user friendly any more. The way the comments are organised is bizarre and somehow working from most recent to older just is counter-intuitive. With no page numbers it is impossible to negotiate back to the start of a threat.

    Much as I actually dislike the thread type of blog I think NOW it would be an improvement on what we have now. At least you could navigate a bit better.

    Morever for thse sensible posters who dislike abuse they could skip over easily the boring abuse exchanges (and the cricket, AFL etc if not interested).

  25. daretotread @ #123 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 9:52 am

    Much as I feel sorry for William, the sad fact is that this site is just not very user friendly any more. The way the comments are organised is bizarre and somehow working from most recent to older just is counter-intuitive. With no page numbers it is impossible to negotiate back to the start of a threat.

    Much as I actually dislike the thread type of blog I think NOW it would be an improvement on what we have now. At least you could navigate a bit better.

    Morever for thse sensible posters who dislike abuse they could skip over easily the boring abuse exchanges (and the cricket, AFL etc if not interested).

    Have you installed the C+ Plugin which AR created?
    It does improve things a lot on a computer.

  26. daretotread

    Reading on a mobile is stressful as the blog does not stay with one order. I’ve almost given up reading during the night for this reason.

  28. Barnaby Joyce: “Matt Canavan is one of the smartest people in Australian politics”

    My mind is boggling at this evidence of Barnaby’s IQ.

  30. The current layout of this website is working just as the developers intended.
    The speed has improved and the bottlenecks are reduced as there are less comments because the site is too hard to read

  32. [lizzie
    Barnaby Joyce: “Matt Canavan is one of the smartest people in Australian politics”

    My mind is boggling at this evidence of Barnaby’s IQ.]

    They both may be smart, but they have a lot of dumb ideas!

  33. Lizzie

    I have found that refreshing frequently restores the order to something sane. Otherwise it just flicks randomly from place to place. There seems no rationality to the order at all!!!

  41. I love that Barnaby Joyce is tired of the public debate about ME.

    If you didn’t want to hear a debate, you could’ve just done your job and had a vote on ME instead of forcing a public argument, and then complaining about it.

  43. [Still in the Senate and One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts has a bit to say about the Electoral and Other Legislation Amendment Bill – he called the Mediscare campaign “deplorable”.

    He says One Nation will support the bill because they want to start putting “the trust back into politics” and believes this is one of the first step to putting “people first”.]

    Malcolm, is that anything like the trust that politicians say what they have actually done?

  46. Regarding the current format of the blog, since “the load rest of comments” so you get all the comments on one very long page without having to continually loading more I have found navigating to a particular “time” quite manageable.

  48. This article has some issues, but even so, the conclusion is inescapable …

    From http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-11/gas-not-coal-the-fix-to-australias-soaring-electricity-prices/8890818 …

    The fix to Australia’s soaring electricity prices? Longer term, it is greater investment in renewables and energy storage such as batteries. Short term, it is to fix the gas crisis.

    And the reason for the gas crisis?

    In case you have not noticed, gas prices have quadrupled because the exporters — many of which are the electricity generators — have sold more gas to offshore customers than their reserves. So, they pillaged local supplies, sending domestic gas prices through the roof

    Until this problem is fixed, there is little hope – we will continue to burn coal. Which of course is precisely what industry and the government want (for different reasons) – the government wants it because they are backed by the coal industry, and the gas companies want it because they have over committed themselves, selling our gas at knock-down prices to customers who are obviously far more canny than we are.

  49. What countries are there where the right is currently doing well in the polling?

    Aus – 19 consecutive Newspolls for Labor
    NZ – 4 consecutive polls to Labor, including a 15 point margin in the latest.
    UK – Since the election, 17 polls to Labour, 1 tied and 2 to the Tories (although probable Labour govt with SNP and maybe Lib Dems even in those 3)
    USA – Trump’s approval/disapproval is atrocious.
    Canada – Liberals (actual Liberals) have lost 1 poll, tied 2, and won way more than I care to count.
    Germany – The CDU is winning the primary vote, but from the looks of it will fall from majority government to minority.

  50. Billie

    The speed has improved and the bottlenecks are reduced as there are less comments because the site is too hard to read

    Laughing through my sighs!!

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 11
1 2 3 4 … 11