Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.
Meanwhile in an alternative universe we have this headline in the GG. Apparently we are not meant to fall about laughing at Scomo “speaking in tongues” a la his church.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/scott-morrison-says-case-building-for-wage-rises/news-story/111bd12900f5094130a6d0325d31425d
I can’t see significant wage rises, one off bonuses possibly, for companies that are doing well.
The problem is that companies are uncertain of future consumer spending, this doubt is fueled by, you guessed it, weak wage growth.
smh.com.au @smh
·
7h
‘Real concern’: Clock ticks down on $2.8b uni reform bill
He does what? How could a government Minister… oh.
poroti @ #51 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 9:10 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/scott-morrison-says-case-building-for-wage-rises/news-story/111bd12900f5094130a6d0325d31425d
I also hear the Scott is looking forward to Holt coming back from his swim.
OK. This is gun nuttery beyond belief. They really have had to tell USAians not to shoot at the tornado.
KB
“My opinion is better because I’m paid to have one”
Millennial
“I also hear the Scott is looking forward to Holt coming back from his swim.” . Indeed apparently the delay was caused by Harold’s spear gun hitting the very hard to land Loch Ness Monster.
What was the PPM doing in the lead up to the 2007 election?
cud chewer @ #59 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 10:58 pm
Rudd took the lead in February and never lost it from then on, but at times it was close. In the last five polls before the election Rudd led by 7, 4, 8, 4, 3.
Cool thanks.
Coorey on the poll
Labor thumps the Coalition 53pc to 47pc but not on the economy: Fairfax/Ipsos poll
http://www.afr.com/news/labor-thumps-the-coalition-53pc-to-47pc-but-not-on-the-economy-fairfaxipsos-poll-20170909-gyeb0d?btis
Apparently Turnbull is more popular than Shorten, and the government is preferred to manage the economy.
Oh and if an election were held now Labor would win in a landslide.
Actually Coorey finishes strongly criticizing the government for their OTT attacks on Shorten as projection.
“No cute jokes here. Just this point: accusing Shorten of cynically exploiting the reality that enough Australians have forgotten about 20th century history is one massive projection.”
Kenny also finishes strongly
“Turnbull may have a path to recovery in 2018.”
But his party room must give him the space to do it. So far that latitude has been absent. And Turnbull has lacked the courage to demand it. The big test is the clean energy target.
Turnbull needs a proper carbon abatement policy, rather than a political fix transparently designed to appease recalcitrants. That means staring down the Nats, staring down the right, staring down coal.”
Turnbull needs strong stance on energy
It’s not the current size of the poll deficit per se, but rather, the sheer immovability of the damn thing. It’s like the voters’ minds are closed off, made up.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-its-the-economy-stupid-20170910-gyehto.html?btis
Morning
Kenny’s still a huge fanboi of Malbott
Good morning dawn Patrollers.
Massola joins the “it’s ll about Shorten brigade” when analysing poll results that would sweep Labor into power.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-labor-maintains-electionwinning-lead-despite-bill-shorten-nosedive-20170910-gyehpf.html
Peter Hartcher deduces the voters have had enough of the recent political scene.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-voters-are-desperate-for-a-different-political-story-20170910-gyeh4e.html
Urban Wronski says that Turnbull is no Pacific leader and nor is he a leader at home.
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/09/10/turnbull-no-pacific-leader-nor-a-leader-at-home/
Greg Jericho explains the fallacy of trickle down economics.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/sep/10/tax-cuts-for-the-rich-dont-help-the-rest-dont-take-my-word-for-it-ask-the-imf
Australians doing it tough must be fed up with being told by the excitable Treasurer Scott Morrison that there are better times ahead. Mr Morrison’s optimism would be encouraging if not for economic indicators rarely supporting his upbeat sloganeering.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/09/10/scott-morrison-economy-up-to-job/
The Nationals have voted to remove all subsidies for renewable energy providers over a five-year period and to freeze them at their current level for the next year. You can just about hear the banjos!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-party-votes-to-remove-all-subsidies-for-renewable-energy-20170908-gydw5m.html
Beware of “credit repair agencies”.
http://www.smh.com.au/money/ask-an-expert/credit-repair-agencies-charge-through-the-nose-for-what-you-can-do-yourself-20170906-gybzv7.html
As counting continued on Sunday across 46 council districts, including 22 Sydney councils, early results showed voters had punished the Liberal party across the board, but surprisingly including deep into its Sydney heartland.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/liberals-facing-a-backlash-as-voters-deliver-verdict-on-council-mergers-20170910-gyem0s.html
Luke Foley gives his idea of what caused the significant swings.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-says-overdevelopment-agenda-cost-the-liberals-in-sydney-20170910-gyee0q.html
Julie Szego tells us that accusing Shorten of cynically exploiting the reality that enough Australians have forgotten about 20th century history is one massive projection.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/if-shorten-really-is-playing-politics-with-our-memory-lapses-hes-not-alone-20170908-gyda2o.html
Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner
The Black Economy Taskforce is recommending a crackdown on illegal gambling after investigations revealed illegal betting exchanges operating in Australia, some connected to Asian crime gangs.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/illegal-gambling-under-watch-by-black-economy-taskforce-in-the-leadup-to-spring-racing-20170908-gydqbf.html
The slowdown in the apartment market is worsening and will have a severe impact on the economy if it is not arrested, according to the country’s biggest apartment builder, billionaire Harry Triguboff. Google.
/business/property/apartment-slowdown-to-hit-economy-hard-harry-triguboff/news-story/8d0c4f1c4066cf29b489f7274bcf6658
Adele Ferguson tells us that Myers is running out of chances. Google.
/business/retail/myer-running-out-of-chances-board-renewal-on-the-cards-as-fullyear-results-come-in-20170910-gyee35
Matt Golding heralds the return of spring with some circumspection.
Pat Campbell on the desperation of the coal protagonists.
Matt Golding with his thoughts on energy policy.
The six stages of a Richmond Tigers fan.
Glen Le Lievre sheets it home to Turnbull.
Yet another disturbing bedroom scene from David Rowe.
Andrew Dyson is worried about SSM climate change.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
I’m in all sorts of trouble getting Section 2 of the Dawn Patrol from going into moderation. I’m running out of ideas.
You can see it over the road at https://pbxmastragics.com/2017/09/08/it-aint-all-bad/comment-page-4/#comment-278560
Rudd was ahead of Howard as PPM in 2007.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2007/02/20/rudd-overtakes-howard-polls
Vote YES and prepare for the Four Horses of the Apocalypse and the end of civilisation as we know it………….apparently
Google au/opinion/columnists/jennifer-oriel/samesex-law-should-see-exodus-from-marriage-act/news-story/81d160c0f4b85ba4fe92a86b1aa9f2ee
BK
You can wipe the ‘memory’ of section 2 by deleting it, then refresh the page. Then try again.
If that doesn’t work, delete and restart computer.
Or perhaps you’ve already tried that?
JOHN BOY
Puff piece on Morrison.
Sure did read that way as well lizzie
They must enjoy a latte or 2 in the Parliament cafe
BK
Perhaps the words “lashings” and “child abuse” in the same post are the problem.
Urbanwronski is scathing on Mal’s attitude towards the Pacific Islands and our poor treatment of Polynesian job seekers. No doubt Michaelia cheers him on.
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/09/10/turnbull-no-pacific-leader-nor-a-leader-at-home/
Turnbull needs a strong stance on something. Anything, really.
Oh, apart from “It’s all Labor’s fault and Bill Shorten is a poo bum.”
Good Morning
SkepticNikki: Christians standing on the beach trying to “pray #HurricaneIrma away.”
Yes. Even in the 21st century humans are still this stupid. pic.twitter.com/zTEt07Md5C
guytaur
They’re not stupid. They’ve probably enjoyed the benefits of an American “Christian” education.
I did not hit a paywall on this
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/coalition-disgust-over-vile-filth-tweets-of-gay-vows-campaigner/news-story/af7579ee984fd04c6702a61377c2d340
Gives you an idea of what the no crowd think is abusive
is paywalled guytaur…
ABC RN show reported ” a positive movement to the government in the latest Ipsos ”
Interesting take
JB
Hmmm. I wonder why I did not hit a paywall then. As soon as I pressed the close x of the advertisement I could read it. Newscorpse paywall is strange.
More Christians:
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/straight-out-of-the-handmaids-tale-insiders-claim-cia-director-pompeo-is-turning-agency-into-a-christian-hotbed/
If true, this is a very worrying development. The same is happening in the US military academies.
Only a matter of time before they try to bring it to Australia, given our new joined-at-the-hip relationship.
The public service is not supposed to be captured by any religion.
JB
Its worth getting round the paywall. They are upset at Mr Benjamin Laws quarterly essay.
I think its the term hate f**king that has got under their skin.
mrbenjaminlaw: @llfowkes @YaThinkN @jmodoh @fergushunter Rape is non-consensual and nothing to be joked about. Hate f **king is a Gen Y term that refers to consensual sex with someone disagreeable.
First image of the SSM postal survey form
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJW5Z2AUQAE65I6?format=jpg&name=large
There’s a joke in Christian circles — I’m reminded of it by the picture of those people on the beach –
A Christian hears on the radio that a huge storm is approaching, and that everyone is advised to evacuate now. He says to himself, “That’s OK, I have faith in God; He will protect me.”
His friend arrives on his doorstop, offering him a ride to safety. He says, “I’m OK, God will protect me.”
As the floodwaters rise, a policeman knocks on his door and tells him to evacuate. The Christian says he’s fine, God will protect him.
The waters lap around his house. A fire engine makes its way up his drive; same response. A few hours later, he’s had to move to the second storey, and a boat appears. He waves it away.
Finally, he’s on the roof. A helicopter hovers above him.
“It’s OK!” he shouts. “I have faith in God! He will protect me!”
When he arrives at the Pearly Gates an hour later, he’s very aggrieved.
“I had faith that God would protect me,” he says to St Peter. “Yet here I am.”
“God sent you a warning, a friend, a policeman, a fire engine, a boat and a helicopter,” St Peter says dryly. “I’m not sure what else he could do.”
Good one Zoomster. I suppose Dog only helps those who help themselves.
abcnews: Live: Barnaby Joyce tells same-sex marriage campaigners to ‘get out of my face’ #auspol #ssm ab.co/2xV0sF2 pic.twitter.com/Gw5iCyqxzQ
NMaconachie: Forces #postalvote on us.
Sends 122 million dollars of mail.
Doesn’t want to hear about it.
Not bright.
#marriageequality twitter.com/abcnews/status…
Richardson in today’s GG is a concern troll about Shorten apparently all at sea on energy policy.
Apparently Albo can fix it.
Joyce is backtracking.. Not wanting to offend no votes but not repeating his marriage equality is a threat to Indonesian Beef exports. Now not even wanting to say he is going to vote no.
Will someone please collect the Nationals together in a room and beat their stupid heads together?
https://johnmenadue.com/alan-kohler-coalitions-retreat-back-to-coal-fired-power-stations/
For those who missed it, Alan Kohler’s demolition of the LNP energy policy – though I suggest you also jump behind the paywall to read the comments on the Oz. Absolute comic gold.
Guytaur – they must know, at the Australian, that lots of people are evading the paywall by googling articles, but they turn a blind eye so they get lots of clicks. So, in essence, they are selling their paying subscribers short, but they don’t care.
The national economy has not been travelling to well ever since Hockey was Treasurer, so I suppose this is what the COALition means when they refer to “good economic management”.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/nsw/federal-coalition-porkbarrels-own-queensland-seats-1381-20170909-gye5bg.html
antonbruckner11
Yes it must be deliberate as years before they started paywalling the GG Rupes had paywalled The Times of London. It too was Google jumpable at the time so it is not as if they would be caught by surprise re the GG.
[lizzie
Will someone please collect the Nationals together in a room and beat their stupid heads together?]
And that would achieve what? 🙂
antonbruckner11
https://johnmenadue.com/alan-kohler-coalitions-retreat-back-to-coal-fired-power-stations/
For those who missed it, Alan Kohler’s demolition of the LNP energy policy – though I suggest you also jump behind the paywall to read the comments on the Oz. Absolute comic gold.
_____________________________________________
Amazing that someone calls it as it is:
“The result was that the bright promise of 2015 was unfulfilled. There have now been eight years of energy policy inaction in Australia because of the Liberal Party’s decision in 2009-10 to politicise it, then to pretend to be in favour, and then to pull the rug out.”
Congrats to Kohler for finally abandoning the ‘both sides were to blame” circle jerk cliche.
Edited to note that I visited the comments in the GG and was surprised by how many posters bagged Kohler for not understanding physics and science. The surprise, which was enough to make me go back and read the article again, is because Kohler’s article was purely about business and economics. Not only were the posters scientifically and economically illiterate, they were failures at reading comprehension.
In NZ the conservatives are getting nervous about the wind of change. They are now going for invented smears, based on stuff the Labour leader never said.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11920894
I doubt there is a spare shredding machine still available for hire anywhere in Wellington.