Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Meanwhile in an alternative universe we have this headline in the GG. Apparently we are not meant to fall about laughing at Scomo “speaking in tongues” a la his church.

    Positive signs for wage rises

    Scott Morrison is “looking forward” to bosses handing their employees wage rises on top of improving profits.


  2. I can’t see significant wage rises, one off bonuses possibly, for companies that are doing well.

    The problem is that companies are uncertain of future consumer spending, this doubt is fueled by, you guessed it, weak wage growth.

  3. He does what? How could a government Minister… oh.
    poroti @ #51 Sunday, September 10th, 2017 – 9:10 pm

    Meanwhile in an alternative universe we have this headline in the GG. Apparently we are not meant to fall about laughing at Scomo “speaking in tongues” a la his church.

    Positive signs for wage rises

    Scott Morrison is “looking forward” to bosses handing their employees wage rises on top of improving profits.


  4. KB

    A foolish quote something like “We understand Newspoll because we own it” comes to mind.

    “My opinion is better because I’m paid to have one”

  5. Millennial
    “I also hear the Scott is looking forward to Holt coming back from his swim.” . Indeed apparently the delay was caused by Harold’s spear gun hitting the very hard to land Loch Ness Monster.

  6. Actually Coorey finishes strongly criticizing the government for their OTT attacks on Shorten as projection.

    “No cute jokes here. Just this point: accusing Shorten of cynically exploiting the reality that enough Australians have forgotten about 20th century history is one massive projection.”

  7. Kenny also finishes strongly

    “Turnbull may have a path to recovery in 2018.”

    But his party room must give him the space to do it. So far that latitude has been absent. And Turnbull has lacked the courage to demand it. The big test is the clean energy target.

    Turnbull needs a proper carbon abatement policy, rather than a political fix transparently designed to appease recalcitrants. That means staring down the Nats, staring down the right, staring down coal.”

    Turnbull needs strong stance on energy
    It’s not the current size of the poll deficit per se, but rather, the sheer immovability of the damn thing. It’s like the voters’ minds are closed off, made up.

  8. Good morning dawn Patrollers.

    Massola joins the “it’s ll about Shorten brigade” when analysing poll results that would sweep Labor into power.
    Peter Hartcher deduces the voters have had enough of the recent political scene.
    Urban Wronski says that Turnbull is no Pacific leader and nor is he a leader at home.
    Greg Jericho explains the fallacy of trickle down economics.
    Australians doing it tough must be fed up with being told by the excitable Treasurer Scott Morrison that there are better times ahead. Mr Morrison’s optimism would be encouraging if not for economic indicators rarely supporting his upbeat sloganeering.
    The Nationals have voted to remove all subsidies for renewable energy providers over a five-year period and to freeze them at their current level for the next year. You can just about hear the banjos!
    Beware of “credit repair agencies”.
    As counting continued on Sunday across 46 council districts, including 22 Sydney councils, early results showed voters had punished the Liberal party across the board, but surprisingly including deep into its Sydney heartland.
    Luke Foley gives his idea of what caused the significant swings.
    Julie Szego tells us that accusing Shorten of cynically exploiting the reality that enough Australians have forgotten about 20th century history is one massive projection.

  9. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The Black Economy Taskforce is recommending a crackdown on illegal gambling after investigations revealed illegal betting exchanges operating in Australia, some connected to Asian crime gangs.
    The slowdown in the apartment market is worsening and will have a severe impact on the economy if it is not arrested, according to the country’s biggest apartment builder, billionaire Harry Triguboff. Google.
    Adele Ferguson tells us that Myers is running out of chances. Google.

    Matt Golding heralds the return of spring with some circumspection.

    Pat Campbell on the desperation of the coal protagonists.

    Matt Golding with his thoughts on energy policy.

    The six stages of a Richmond Tigers fan.

    Glen Le Lievre sheets it home to Turnbull.

    Yet another disturbing bedroom scene from David Rowe.

    Andrew Dyson is worried about SSM climate change.

  10. Vote YES and prepare for the Four Horses of the Apocalypse and the end of civilisation as we know it………….apparently

    the Liberal Party’s draft same-sex marriage bill could empower a state-funded assault on religions across the nation.

    ………….It can herald a profound transformation of society by making the most pre-political institution a servant of the PC state.

    Wherever the state has codified neo-Marxist minority politics in discrimination law, the institution of marriage is gradually subordinated to the dictates of political correctness. In the context of codified neo-Marxism, the legalisation of same-sex marriage is not what it seems. Instead of creating equal­ity, it can create inequality by empowering the persecution of dissenters from PC politics
    ……………….the same-sex marriage bill could empower taxpayer-funded activism against freedom of thought, freedom of speech and freedom of religion. Consequently, I believe that legalisation of same-sex marriage should give rise to the withdrawal of churches, temples and mosques from the Australian Marriage Act.

    Google au/opinion/columnists/jennifer-oriel/samesex-law-should-see-exodus-from-marriage-act/news-story/81d160c0f4b85ba4fe92a86b1aa9f2ee

  11. BK

    You can wipe the ‘memory’ of section 2 by deleting it, then refresh the page. Then try again.
    If that doesn’t work, delete and restart computer.

    Or perhaps you’ve already tried that?

  12. Urbanwronski is scathing on Mal’s attitude towards the Pacific Islands and our poor treatment of Polynesian job seekers. No doubt Michaelia cheers him on.

    When there’s a clear choice between saving his own leadership and the chance to lead or even save others, Turnbull gives up a whole six hours of his time. Just enough time to announce a new kanaka recruitment drive.


  13. Turnbull needs a strong stance on something. Anything, really.

    Oh, apart from “It’s all Labor’s fault and Bill Shorten is a poo bum.”

  14. Good Morning
    SkepticNikki: Christians standing on the beach trying to “pray #HurricaneIrma away.”

    Yes. Even in the 21st century humans are still this stupid. pic.twitter.com/zTEt07Md5C

  15. JB

    Hmmm. I wonder why I did not hit a paywall then. As soon as I pressed the close x of the advertisement I could read it. Newscorpse paywall is strange.

  16. JB

    Its worth getting round the paywall. They are upset at Mr Benjamin Laws quarterly essay.

    I think its the term hate f**king that has got under their skin.

    mrbenjaminlaw: @llfowkes @YaThinkN @jmodoh @fergushunter Rape is non-consensual and nothing to be joked about. Hate f **king is a Gen Y term that refers to consensual sex with someone disagreeable.

  17. There’s a joke in Christian circles — I’m reminded of it by the picture of those people on the beach –

    A Christian hears on the radio that a huge storm is approaching, and that everyone is advised to evacuate now. He says to himself, “That’s OK, I have faith in God; He will protect me.”

    His friend arrives on his doorstop, offering him a ride to safety. He says, “I’m OK, God will protect me.”

    As the floodwaters rise, a policeman knocks on his door and tells him to evacuate. The Christian says he’s fine, God will protect him.

    The waters lap around his house. A fire engine makes its way up his drive; same response. A few hours later, he’s had to move to the second storey, and a boat appears. He waves it away.

    Finally, he’s on the roof. A helicopter hovers above him.

    “It’s OK!” he shouts. “I have faith in God! He will protect me!”

    When he arrives at the Pearly Gates an hour later, he’s very aggrieved.

    “I had faith that God would protect me,” he says to St Peter. “Yet here I am.”

    “God sent you a warning, a friend, a policeman, a fire engine, a boat and a helicopter,” St Peter says dryly. “I’m not sure what else he could do.”

  18. abcnews: Live: Barnaby Joyce tells same-sex marriage campaigners to ‘get out of my face’ #auspol #ssm ab.co/2xV0sF2 pic.twitter.com/Gw5iCyqxzQ
    NMaconachie: Forces #postalvote on us.
    Sends 122 million dollars of mail.
    Doesn’t want to hear about it.
    Not bright.

    #marriageequality twitter.com/abcnews/status…

  19. Joyce is backtracking.. Not wanting to offend no votes but not repeating his marriage equality is a threat to Indonesian Beef exports. Now not even wanting to say he is going to vote no.

  20. Guytaur – they must know, at the Australian, that lots of people are evading the paywall by googling articles, but they turn a blind eye so they get lots of clicks. So, in essence, they are selling their paying subscribers short, but they don’t care.

  21. Bill McKibben‏Verified account @billmckibben · 9h9 hours ago

    As we helplessly watch Florida suffer today, remember that the the fossil fuel companies knew all about climate change in 1980s. And lied.

  22. antonbruckner11

    Yes it must be deliberate as years before they started paywalling the GG Rupes had paywalled The Times of London. It too was Google jumpable at the time so it is not as if they would be caught by surprise re the GG.

  23. [lizzie
    Will someone please collect the Nationals together in a room and beat their stupid heads together?

    And that would achieve what? 🙂

  24. antonbruckner11


    For those who missed it, Alan Kohler’s demolition of the LNP energy policy – though I suggest you also jump behind the paywall to read the comments on the Oz. Absolute comic gold.

    Amazing that someone calls it as it is:

    “The result was that the bright promise of 2015 was unfulfilled. There have now been eight years of energy policy inaction in Australia because of the Liberal Party’s decision in 2009-10 to politicise it, then to pretend to be in favour, and then to pull the rug out.”

    Congrats to Kohler for finally abandoning the ‘both sides were to blame” circle jerk cliche.
    Edited to note that I visited the comments in the GG and was surprised by how many posters bagged Kohler for not understanding physics and science. The surprise, which was enough to make me go back and read the article again, is because Kohler’s article was purely about business and economics. Not only were the posters scientifically and economically illiterate, they were failures at reading comprehension.

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