Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for a while has a conventional two-party preferred result, while continuing to record much stronger support for the Greens than other pollsters.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, we have our first Ipsos poll since May, and it’s your usual 53-47 to Labor on the headline two-party preferred. However, the primary vote results are rather less orthodox: only 35% for the Coalition (down two) and 34% for Labor (down one), with the Greens on 14% (up one) – high results for the Greens having long been a feature of Ipsos. Ipsos publishes both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party results, and I’m not sure which is being invoked here: my rough calculation tells me a previous election result would be more like 54-46 to Labor, although the very high minor party vote means the final total is very sensitive to small changes (UPDATE: Turns out this is previous election preferences; respondent allocation is a bit better for the Coalition at 52-48, a pattern now evident across multiple pollsters). On leadership ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 47%, Bill Shorten is down six to 36% and up five to 52%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 47-35 to 48-31. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

534 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Boerwar @ #235 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 2:11 pm

    US folk eat a lot of turkeys for Christmas and Easter.

    If you enjoy animal carnage you could Google ‘Slaughter Turkey U tube’. If you don’t enjoy it, I would advise against. Strongly.

    http://extension.illinois.edu/turkey/turkey_facts.cfm

    When I was a tot, Turkey was a country, and chicken was expensive and the thing for Christmas and birthdays. Lamb was all day every day, except Friday.

  8. Lamb of God, who takes away the sins of the world, have mercy on us, grant us peace
    (my parents were borderline Tridentine)

  16. Zoomster, Turnbull is living proof that you don’t need much intelligence to make a lot of money in our society. All you have got to do is inherit it (tick), have slippy morals (tick) suck up to the right people (tick), and get lucky (tick).

  17. Simple question Bowen could ask, ‘Why don’t people have more wages in their pay packets now than when the Coalition came to power? ‘

  20. Apprpo PPM polling, Fairfax is a dying media organisation surviving on Click Bait.
    Their quality journalism didn’t survive the transition from printed broad sheet to tabloid digital.
    Can’t tell the difference between the Telegraph & SMH any longer.

    Their only asset is Domain fed off the Sydney market obsessed with the rise & fall of house prices.
    Fairfax / Domain change the naritive every month to generate more panic & more click baits

    IPSOS & PPM spruking / click bait is just an attempt to slow their inevitable decline.

  21. Now, at least, the idiot media won’t be able to say that Labor has been hiding from the energy issue (when in fact they were chasing an ineligible acting PM).

  22. Nationals demand “coal target” as energy politics spirals into loony fog

    It barely seems believable, but the politics of energy has just gotten worse. A week that began with a bizarre push to extend the life of a decrepit, 50-year-old power plant in the hope of keeping the lights on, finished with the Nationals demanding that no further subsidies be given to renewable energy.

    Instead, they said, they should be given to last century’s technology: coal. At their annual conference on the weekend, the National voted, in effect, for a coal energy target. It wants the federal government to give out loans to support the coal industry.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/nationals-demand-coal-target-energy-politics-spirals-loony-fog-37878/

  24. Remember how the media was crapping on on the last sitting day about labor shying away from a debate about energy. I think that QT just killed that bullshit.

  25. This is now being said so often!!

    Rob Mitchell‏Verified account @RobMitchellMP · 4h4 hours ago

    mate for someone being silenced @LyleShelton spends a lot of time on @SkyNewsAust sprouting his untruths #auspol

  26. C@tmomma @ #267 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 3:06 pm

    Simple question Bowen could ask, ‘Why don’t people have more wages in their pay packets now than when the Coalition came to power? ‘

    That is the question, but they also need to answer it for the numnuts with a cutting perjorative. Without resorting to Bill’s Zingers, they need to get with the verbal knife you referred to. PK did, with his Katana (samurai sword) tongue.

  27. The Matt Hatter‏ @MattGlassDarkly · 1h1 hour ago

    When, after 4 years & billions of $, your energy & climate change policy consists of calling your opponent “Blackout Bill.” #qt

  32. Player One
    Turnbull is “urbane and intelligent” and “the most intelligent man in the room” according to Katherine Murphy.

    As an ALP partisan Murphy is one of my favourites. I bet that was either written back when everyone (except me) was saying Mal Baby was going to rule for 100 years, or with more irony than is apparent without context.

  34. Itza
    They liked the old ways and would do the Latin when they could and Vulgate at other times. They were by no means Sede Vacante.

  37. I take it that ‘urbane’ and civilized includes swearing in anger while staff who can do nothing much about it have to cop your ‘ urbanity’.

  39. Question @ #282 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 3:41 pm

    Player One
    Turnbull is “urbane and intelligent” and “the most intelligent man in the room” according to Katherine Murphy.

    As an ALP partisan Murphy is one of my favourites. I bet that was either written back when everyone (except me) was saying Mal Baby was going to rule for 100 years, or with more irony than is apparent without context.

    Murphy just has the hots for Mal. One of those quotes was written yesterday.

  40. Turnbull is “urbane and intelligent” and “the most intelligent man in the room” according to Katherine Murphy.

    I think that she and Trumble were the only ones in the room.

  41. Boerwar @ #287 Monday, September 11th, 2017 – 4:03 pm

    I take it that ‘urbane’ and civilized includes swearing in anger while staff who can do nothing much about it have to cop your ‘ urbanity’.

    Oh that behaviour is a stratagem, along with leather jackets, two now even, brown and black. One of the lads just disguised as the owner of a harbourside mansion.

  43. Being a n abusive proma donna is not has never been a career stopper in politics or life really. Look at Rudd, Abbott, Ketaing, Hawke et al.

  45. P1

    Abbott grabbed the short-term incentive in return for long-term cost to the country, and when you hear a character as urbane and intelligent as Turnbull banging on about “Blackout Bill”, you can’t help but feel you are watching the opening credits of Groundhog Day.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/09/the-coalition-wants-to-shift-the-energy-policy-blame-voters-just-want-it-fixed

    In context it doesn’t quite read the same way though. Does it?

    In the past week or so Murphy has been one of the few to call BS on the line that energy policy is “a pox on both their houses”, and accurately laid blame entirely on L-NP partisanship. In that article she again blames Abbott, and the quote actually says Turnbull is sounding just as stupid as Abbott.

  46. I think it’s pretty clear that most MSM commentators (including the centre-left variety such as Murphy) would tend to associate more with a witty, urbane and very white collar Turnbull than with a rougher and more straightforward ‘unionist’ like Shorten. See how Turnbull’s connections to business and wealth reinforce his credibility, whereas for Shorten these connections are signs he’s a sycophantic wannabe.

    The CPG don’t really see policy development as something to report on – other than to comment on the “perception” or political effects of such policies. Unfortunately I don’t see Shorten ever really being considered as legitimate in their eyes regardless of what he says or does.

  47. ItzaDream

    Without resorting to Bill’s Zingers, they need to get with the verbal knife you referred to..

    Or Shorten could take a leaf out of Gillard’s book..
    “I will not be lectured on energy policy by this empty suit.”

  49. I have absolutely no advice for Shorten. He quickly got the better of Abbott, and Turnbull for that matter. The only reason Turnbull hasn’t been replaced is because the L-NP have nothing but empty chairs.

    “Kill Bill” is not a new strategy. It has been a constant since he became opposition leader. “Electricity Bill” is about as lame as it sounds, and I rather like the way it’s all water off a duck’s back to him.

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