Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. I just listened to the report on Labor during QT and Shorten tabling the documentation proving he had renounced British citizenship on PM.
    I reckon Labor set ’em up and the Libs walked straight into it.
    Keating was right. Turnbull has no political judgment.
    Despite the Turnbull boosters in the CPG, they’re still behind, dangerously so, for 19 Newspolls in a row. According to Billbowe’s bludgertrack, tey’s lose 17 seats on current polling.

  2. Guytaur – Sudamalis will keep until the HC delivers its decision. Then it should be obvious whether she has to resign or not. If she doesn’t, I think her position will become untenable.

  3. Barney in Go Dau
    I reckon the fun is just about to begin in the HC. Am anticipating the HC will throw out the stupid $120 million survey on ME just on the grounds it is in no way urgent and was certainly anticipated, as it was Lib policy prior to the last election.
    Then the dual citizenship hearings.
    I keep having the delicious thought that we might actually have an election sooner rather than later.

  4. monica,

    I agree.

    I think we’re in a bit of a holding pattern awaiting the Court outcomes.

    Hopefully 5-6 weeks of drawn out pain for the Government.

  5. monica,

    The HC challenge on the survey is more important to me than the citizenship thing. I just wish I was as confident that the survey will get blown up as I am about Barnaby getting blown up.

    It all revolves around whether the funding is urgent and not just politically urgent. No way to know how a HC more interested in letter of law issues is going to respond to that.

  6. Barney in Go Dau
    Yep. That’s pretty much is how I see it.
    The thing that has me rivetted is the prospect of Trump and Kim the current threatening nuclear armageddon with Barnaby as Acting PM.
    It’s like some strange surreal Monty Python script with music by Tom Lehrer.
    Cue: We will all go together when we go, Every Hottentot and every Eskimo.

  7. It all revolves around whether the funding is urgent and not just politically urgent.

    One of the government’s arguments is that it’s urgent because the Finance Minister says it’s urgent. They claim there’s no need to see if it is actually urgent (in the reasonable view of the Man On The Clapham Omnibus, or the motorist stuck in traffic on Sydney’s M5 – as the case may be).

    George Williams says this is not a good argument, because it would first go against other High Court decisions, and secondly would permit any expenditure that the Minister reckons is “urgent”, including pork-barreling, ex-gratia payments to retired ministers, etc. etc., that were not considered at Budget time. He says this is against both the spirit and the letter of the Constitution.

    If Williams is correct,the survey is goin’ down, on a highway to political hell.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/legally-dubious-why-you-shouldnt-bet-on-the-postal-vote-going-ahead-20170904-gya5fi.html

  8. cud chewer
    I guess what I was relying on in relation to the urgency issue is that a plebiscite on the issue was the Libs policy before the election. I don’t know whether the HC will judge a survey to be a different animal, but I’d be damned surprised.

  9. Gee, if youre a HC judge and your watching the evening news, you’re thinking: boy, Bill Shorten knew he had to renounce his English citizenship. Why couldn’t Barney?

  10. BB

    One of the government’s arguments is that it’s urgent because the Finance Minister says it’s urgent.

    Yep.

    The Finance Ministers advance meant to fund un-expected events that could not be reasonably budgeted for, not to fund something the government chooses to spend on within the FY.

    The ‘plebiscite’, if the Govt wanted one, should have been budgeted for.

  11. Curious that the government is resorting to the tactic of disputing the right of the challengers to bring the action.
    Why would you resort to that tactic if you were confident of your main argument?

  12. Sudmalis a standout as a ‘box ticker’ – either “didn’t care” or “didn’t read”.

    The fact that she lived in the UK for a period as a child can hardly be ignored.

    She’s actually worse than Joyce who at least can say he’s always lived in Australia.

    (I’m wondering who knew enough about her to provide detailed information required to locate an ‘inward passenger card’ for her dated 1966?)

  13. CTar1

    It would be a very small list of people who would have both the ability and inclination to dig up such an obscure piece of “trivia” .

  14. I don’t know whether the HC will judge a survey to be a different animal, but I’d be damned surprised.

    A plebiscite is run by the AEC and is compulsory, while the survey is run by the Bureau of Statistics is is not compulsory.

    The survey is the equivalent of those “unscientific” polls you see in the newspapers all the time, the ones that find Tony Abbott is preferred PM by 30 points clear of Dutton, with Turnbull on 3%; the ones that say 75-25 that Climate Change is a fraud put about by greedy scientists to get more grants; the ones that say the verdict is out on whether the Earth is flat, or that the Liberals will win the next election in a landslide.

    Complete crap, in other words.

    What the government is arguing is that none of this matters, as long as the Finance Minister subjectively reckons it matters. THEN it’s urgent. He doesn’t have to prove it’s urgent. He only has to say it’s urgent. Having said this, he can order any money at all to be spent for any purpose, which is completely outside the Constitution’s letter and spirit. As long as he says it urgent.

    This is why George Williams says the government will probably fail: we just can’t have unlimitedamountsof money spent outside the Budget without recourse to a vote on it, or reasons being given for it to be spent.

  15. Turnbull’s 30 Newspolls trigger was after the LNP had been watching in dismay for some time as they kept clocking up; so the itchy trigger finger must have started well before the 30 milestone.
    Given we are now up to 20 with the present incumbent i would expect the itchiness in today’s LNP to have already reached plague proportions – I am not sure they will give him the same latitude that they gave Tony.

    How about (say) 25 and no obvious pullback in sight before they pull the trigger this time?
    Of course there is the matter of which bunny gets to make the deeply sad & serious announcement that they are now the embodiment of hope and joy for the LNP.

  16. The “Tony Dalton” who signed Shortens’ “bit of paper” –

    “A LONG-SERVING gymnastics coach who has worked for the Home Office for more than 40 years has been to Buckingham Palace to collect his MBE.

    Tony Dalton, 61, of Harbury Avenue, Ainsdale, joined 100 other people from across the country in a ceremony in which Prince Charles awarded them their medals.

    Mr Dalton was instrumental in introducing citizenship ceremonies into the United Kingdom when he was a senior executive officer in Border Agency’s policy unit.”

    http://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-news/ainsdale-man-tony-dalton-goes-6621280

  17. poroti

    It seems to me that someone very close to Sudmalis would have to be the source.

    I know for example that such a card must exist for me (also father and one sibling) in the second half of 1969 but who else would?

  18. CTar1

    That is what I thought, someone close who would know of its existence. There would need to be a bit of “family feudin’ ” going on for them to do a bit of mongrel stuff like that .

  19. Would a family coming in be able to get a copy at the time as a bit of a souvenir ?I would imagine that for many migrants it would make a nice keepsake. Perhaps she had hers framed in the office ? 🙂

  20. My 2 shekels worth on the HC cases.

    1. SSM postal survey. HC dismisses challenges, the Appropriation Act was lawfully passed. No line can be drawn between purpose of measures, and ministerial discretion in drawing down on funds appropriated.

    2. S.44 on Baarnyard, Canavan, Nash, Waters, Ludlum. HC rules them ineligible due to dual citizenship, with no evidence of any, let alone reasonable, efforts to renounce.

    3. S.44 on Malcolm Roberts. HC rules ineligible, the plurality noting that “. Climate denying faarkwits are a pox on our polity…”

    4. S.44 on Xenophon, HC rules eligible, as he made reasonable attempts, and could not be expected to know nuances of British colonial rights.

  21. sprocket_ @ #527 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    My 2 shekels worth on the HC cases.

    1. SSM postal survey. HC dismisses challenges, the Appropriation Act was lawfully passed. No line can be drawn between purpose of measures, and ministerial discretion in drawing down on funds appropriated.

    Unfortunately I think you may be right here. So a boycott is the next best choice for rational people : )

  22. Player One @ #535 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 8:20 pm

    sprocket_ @ #527 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 8:14 pm

    My 2 shekels worth on the HC cases.

    1. SSM postal survey. HC dismisses challenges, the Appropriation Act was lawfully passed. No line can be drawn between purpose of measures, and ministerial discretion in drawing down on funds appropriated.

    Unfortunately I think you may be right here. So a boycott is the next best choice for rational people : )

    Because raising the white flag to the ‘No’ camp is such a genius move.

  23. poroti

    Would a family coming in be able to get a copy at the time as a bit of a souvenir

    A small card with green printing on it filled out onboard and handed to immigration with passport on arrival?

    A bit before photocopiers or smart phone cameras!

    Why keep??

  24. 1. SSM postal survey. HC dismisses challenges, the Appropriation Act was lawfully passed. No line can be drawn between purpose of measures, and ministerial discretion in drawing down on funds appropriated.

    If the postal survey goes ahead it’s even more reason to achieve a resounding yes vote.

  25. P1
    I feel similarly torn but have decided to vote yes for no other reason than the on balance thing is that the perfect is the enemy of the good on this one.
    It is, IMO, a matter of judgement, of fine balances, and of working with greys rather than with black and white.
    Ultimately, IMO, it is more likely than not that it will be Prime Minister Shorten who will fix this one for everybody.
    In the mean time, I feel it is important to be plugging along.

  26. CTar1

    Abbotts’ letter dated 2015 from the UK Govt saying he renounced UK Citizenship in 1993 good enough for me.

    It’s a long time ago and that neither Abbott or the UK govt still have the original bits of correspondence is not surprising. The UK Citizenship Register records that he did it.

    Thanks CT, I did not know that that was the case.

  27. So what?

    @samanthamaiden

    “In fact for many months when I asked for it @TonyAbbottMHR after leadership spill office said couldn’t find but did have it. I have emails”

    Obsessed with her importance?

  28. I think the the postal thingy might come down to what is urgent.

    Urgent to me implies that the need was great enough and that legislation could not be passed by the Parliament in time. i.e. Parliament not sitting at that time.

    But Parliament was sitting at the time of the announcement and so nothing was stopping a bill for the money being presented to Parliament.

  29. Ooh, look! The APVI has just updated their graphs to incorporate the most recent quarter of solar PV growth …

    http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses

    But … hang on a minute … now that’s a bit odd. There must be some mistake here – this graph still looks absolutely linear, and still shows no sign at all of the exponential growth that the solar enthusiasts here keep assuring us is really happening “out there”.

    I guess the APVI didn’t get the RenewEconomy memo?

  30. I suspect this “survey” won’t be a flier at all. Ever.

    Firstly, the HC has to agree it was both urgent for the government to go down this route and.secondly, be mindful that this has to be a reasonable precedent to set. I suspect the HC will be loath to set a precedent such as this, even if they were prepared to entertain the notion that this was the government’s only option – and one that was so urgent it didn’t require the assent of parliament.

    But, for mine, I think the hardest hurdle for the HC to overcome will be finding that 16 and 17 year-olds, who are normally able to participate in ABS surveys, have to be excluded from this one.

    I’m no lawyer, but I have read the opinions of those who are, and the consensus seems to be that this has half a chance of getting up. And if it does, the NO case is stuffed.

  31. Sorry; premature entering.

    I meant to add that I know of at least 4 or 5 16 and 17 year-old who hurriedly registered over the 24-48 hour period when there was some confusion about whether or not they would get a chance to participate.

    If I’m not the only one with this experience, then it may add even greater numbers to the YES vote than people realise.

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