Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull records an eight-point deterioration in his net approval rating, as Labor’s lead on voting intention widens still further.

Newspoll breaks out of its 53-47 straitjacket to record a 54-46 lead for Labor, from primary vote of Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 38% (up two), Greens 9% (down two) and One Nation 9% (up one). Leadership ratings also record substantial change for the first time a while, with Malcolm Turnbull down three on approval to 35% and up five on disapproval to 55%, and Bill Shorten down two to 34% and up three to 54%. Malcolm Turnbull leads 43-33 as preferred prime minister, down from 46-31 last time. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1675 from Thursday to Sunday. The Australian’s paywalled report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

920 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Should add I believe that Shorten has renounced and dual nationality. Zoomsters evidence has mostly settled my concerns. (There may be one Labor member who slipped up)

  2. alias

    I’m frankly baffled why Shorten doesn’t present his paperwork. Tony Jones will give him a very rough going over on that tonight – and rightly so in my view.

    ________________________________

    If past experience is anything to go by, you can bet your bottom dollar that this issue has been war-gamed to death by Shorten in preparation for tonight.

  3. Rex Douglas

    On the other hand, if Bill Shorten is indeed a dual citizen, a quick and clean transition to a new leader would be best for the ALP.
    _______________________________________

    If Bill Shorten is a dual citizen I’ll vote PHON in the next election. The one thing that I’ve seen 100% about Shorten is that he does his homework – and he doesn’t phone it in.

  4. TPOF

    I think Ms Maiden and Shorten are correct. The constitution isnt broken. Some people cant read their forms!!!

  5. bemused @ #600 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:14 pm

    TPOF @ #596 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:13 pm

    Bemused

    Why are people still on this treadmill?

    Here, its because it is an ongoing political discussion. In hothouse (but effing cold otherwise) Canberra it is because the Coalition are desperate for a distraction and the press gallery circle jerk still feel they owe it to the government to find some ‘balance’ by finding some Labor person with a dual citizenship.

    Well they sure have got a lot of people on PB chasing their tail.

    Just because you’ve moved on, Father Knows Best, let others have their say.

    Why don’t you do what the rest of us do when some are trying to thrash out an understanding that we’ve no interest in, or have moved on from.

    You could use the scroll wheel, there’s a thought, or introduce a new topic.

  6. I’ve discovered another problem with posts.

    The gerbils do not always clear a previous post after it appears, and then refuse to accept further posts, saying it is in moderation. I only found out because one of mine was still sitting in the comments box after it appeared lower down the page.

  7. BK @ #612 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:21 pm

    Does this come as a surprise?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/21/homophobic-anti-marriage-equality-material-surfaces-in-postal-survey-campaign
    Thought not.

    Just today I thanked doG that we didn’t end up with the full Monty Plebiscite, with both sides funded by the taxpayer. Just imagine what a long, drawn out campaign would’ve produced!

    Thankfully, this shorter, sharper campaign has caused the ‘No’ side to overplay it’s hand early.

  8. kezza2
    I don’t know if you read zoomster’s description of the process potential candidates go through in order to establish bona fides for not being dual citizens some time ago. I was reassured. I think zoomster has also commented here earlier that Shorten had done the same as the 3 MPs you referred to.
    Anyway, I’m off for the now, branch meeting.

  9. Baaaarnyard bringing out the Rygun Shearer to do some crutching of the be-wigged ones

    “When Barnaby Joyce heads to the High Court to seek a ruling on his dual Kiwi and Australian citizenship he’ll be bringing a childhood friend, groomsman and Tamworth personal injury lawyer Mark Grady, to represent him.

    In scenes reminiscent of movie classic The Castle, Mr Grady, 42, will head to the highest court in the land to test the vibe of section 44 of the Australian Constitution in a case that has never been heard before­ and which will decide the parliamentary future of Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce.

    “Barney called me up last week and said, ‘Could you represent me?’, and I said yes,” Mr Grady told The Australian. “I’ve been looking very diligently at the High Court case law and the Constitution ever since.”

    Asked when he last practised constitutional law, Mr Grady said: “Next question.” The truth of it is that he hasn’t had cause to revisit it since his studies.

    Mr Grady studied economics at the University of New England, where the now Deputy Prime Minister studied accountin­g. During this time, Mr Grady was working behind the bar at the Wicklow Hotel in Armidale and managed to get Mr Joyce a job as a bouncer.”

  10. monica @ #613 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:25 pm

    kezza2
    I don’t know if you read zoomster’s description of the process potential candidates go through in order to establish bona fides for not being dual citizens some time ago. I was reassured. I think zoomster has also commented here earlier that Shorten had done the same as the 3 MPs you referred to.
    Anyway, I’m off for the now, branch meeting.

    Monica, quickly before you go.

    Yes, I have.

    And, that’s why I think it’s silly, politically silly, not to affirm it with docs.

  11. I’m a great believer in judging the strengths and weaknesses of a public person on what they do time and again, not on expectations or hope possibly enlivened by one or two actions which go against the run.

    Most people, it appears to me, seem desperate to cling to what they want to see in spite of mounting evidence to the contrary if only they open their eyes and look. That’s why Turnbull love endures. And Abbott love has endured for some until his conduct began to pose a personal threat to adherents like the Kipfler and the Terminator.

    Bill Shorten, on the other hand, has to deal with a different lot of expectations. Time and again he has done all the smart things, made all the smart moves and maintained a patently committed team. And yet some people here, and a lot more in the wider world, still expect him to do one day what arrogant fools like Turnbull do every day.

    Anyone who thinks that he has not got the question of his own citizenship status totally locked down and covered has been watching something other than the reality actually playing out in the world before them!

  12. Tesla’s Elon Musk and Google’s Mustafa Suleyman are leading a group of 116 specialists from across 26 countries who are calling for the ban on autonomous weapons.

    The UN recently voted to begin formal discussions on such weapons which include drones, tanks and automated machine guns. Ahead of this, the group of founders of AI and robotics companies have sent an open letter to the UN calling for it to prevent the arms race that is currently under way for killer robots.

    In their letter, the founders warn the review conference of the convention on conventional weapons that this arms race threatens to usher in the “third revolution in warfare” after gunpowder and nuclear arms.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/20/elon-musk-killer-robots-experts-outright-ban-lethal-autonomous-weapons-war?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=240256&subid=22688624&CMP=ema_632

  13. It’s a premise. The fact is that citizenship can create legal encumbrances, even if one allocates their allegiance elsewhere.

  14. So Barnaby calls a friend, who may not be the most expert.

    Asked when he last practised constitutional law, Mr Grady said: “Next question.” The truth of it is that he hasn’t had cause to revisit it since his studies.

    Mr Grady studied economics at the University of New England, where the now Deputy Prime Minister studied accountin­g. During this time, Mr Grady was working behind the bar at the Wicklow Hotel in Armidale and managed to get Mr Joyce a job as a bouncer.”

  15. TPOF @ #617 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:29 pm

    I’m a great believer in judging the strengths and weaknesses of a public person on what they do time and again, not on expectations or hope possibly enlivened by one or two actions which go against the run.

    Most people, it appears to me, seem desperate to cling to what they want to see in spite of mounting evidence to the contrary if only they open their eyes and look. That’s why Turnbull love endures. And Abbott love has endured for some until his conduct began to pose a personal threat to adherents like the Kipfler and the Terminator.

    Bill Shorten, on the other hand, has to deal with a different lot of expectations. Time and again he has done all the smart things, made all the smart moves and maintained a patently committed team. And yet some people here, and a lot more in the wider world, still expect him to do one day what arrogant fools like Turnbull do every day.

    Anyone who thinks that he has not got the question of his own citizenship status totally locked down and covered has been watching something other than the reality actually playing out in the world before them!

    I think the same as you.

    All I’m saying is: Don’t give them any rope.

  16. kezza2

    And, that’s why I think it’s silly, politically silly, not to affirm it with docs.

    ________________________________________

    All of this will be settled long before the next election. In the meantime, every day that this dominates the news is a day when the Government looks like a bunch of incompetent, distracted buffoons. Even when they are trying to cast doubt on Labor, there is still backwash on the government.

    Shorten does not release documents because he wants the Government to keep this in the news. And they are so stupid they are doing exactly what he wants.

  17. If there was an election looming tomorrow, Shorten would be wise to put any citizenship speculation to rest tout suite.

    But there isn’t. The next election should not be happening for a long time yet.

    So at present it’s to Labor’s advantage to let the citizenship issue run. If that means Shorten and other Labor MPs don’t settle questions, and thus keep the issue alive a little longer, all to the good.

    In a year’s time, a very very few voters will remember whether Shorten produced his documentation on Monday, August 21 or September sometime or if he didn’t at all – and if they do, it won’t matter.

    In the meantime, they will have gained the clear impression that the average Coalition MP can’t fill out a simple form.

  18. So, Davis wants to go back to negotiating trade at the same time as the big three exit issues?

    The Tories are serpentine.

  19. Rex earlier
    “On the other hand, if Bill Shorten is indeed a dual citizen, a quick and clean transition to a new leader would be best for the ALP.”.

    Detailed analysis of Rex’s posts gives one the suspicion that he doesn’t like Bill.

    Also, given the ALP leadership election process I can’t see how it can be ‘quick’. Which is no bad thing.

  20. That hokey persona Joyce loves to parade is nothing more, nor less, than a guise of a younger idiot son competing for his parents’ affection.

    People who think he’s smart or intelligent make this same mistake every time.

    Joyce is what he is: a dickhead with a 1st yr knowledge of accounting.

    What the hell is this twat doing as the DPM of Australia, especially when his credentials to be in parliament are under question?

    Like the rest of the LNP, he has no integrity.

    A man, or woman – nod to Monty Python – would have stepped aside while eligibility was determined.

    Not these folk. Mal the Lesser can be out the country, and allow Baaa-na-by to step up to the post without a pause.

    This whole shebang is just as nauseatingly pathetic as Donald Trump and his acolytes.

  21. ‘In the meantime, they will have gained the clear impression that the average Coalition MP can’t fill out a simple form.’

    As it turns out, I am a duel citizen. I didn’t know this a few days ago, and only took only a few minutes to find. I imagine there are lot of people doing the same thing and also seeing how easy it is to check. This will fuel the impression that the adults running the place are slack.

  22. John Reidy @ #623 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:43 pm

    Rex earlier
    “On the other hand, if Bill Shorten is indeed a dual citizen, a quick and clean transition to a new leader would be best for the ALP.”.

    Detailed analysis of Rex’s posts gives one the suspicion that he doesn’t like Bill.

    Also, given the ALP leadership election process I can’t see how it can be ‘quick’. Which is no bad thing.

    If there’s only one candidate (Albanese) the transition can be clean and quick

  23. TPOF @ #602 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:19 pm

    alias

    I’m frankly baffled why Shorten doesn’t present his paperwork. Tony Jones will give him a very rough going over on that tonight – and rightly so in my view.

    ________________________________

    If past experience is anything to go by, you can bet your bottom dollar that this issue has been war-gamed to death in preparation for tonight.

    How does a very busy LOTO find the time for all the war-gaming I read about here?
    I think it is far less a deal than you would make of it.
    Labor has done its homework and the answers were there prior to the last election.

  24. Rex

    It’s a moot point, but there wouldn’t be just one candidate. Just as well, because Albanese would be a bad choice.

  25. zoomster @ #624 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:37 pm

    If there was an election looming tomorrow, Shorten would be wise to put any citizenship speculation to rest tout suite.

    But there isn’t. The next election should not be happening for a long time yet.

    So at present it’s to Labor’s advantage to let the citizenship issue run. If that means Shorten and other Labor MPs don’t settle questions, and thus keep the issue alive a little longer, all to the good.

    In a year’s time, a very very few voters will remember whether Shorten produced his documentation on Monday, August 21 or September sometime or if he didn’t at all – and if they do, it won’t matter.

    In the meantime, they will have gained the clear impression that the average Coalition MP can’t fill out a simple form.

    Let’s agree to disagree.

    To you, it’s a tactical advantage. So be it.

    To me, it’s useless tactically, because it gives the impression Bill has something to hide. And that’s something to exploit.

    And, some people have very long memories. I’m already being asked why.

    Shall I refer people to you?

  26. The Govt needs to be careful what they wish for with the Bill Shorten citizenship question.

    You’d think they would probably prefer the unpopular Shorten as LOTO.

  27. kezza2 @ #607 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:23 pm

    bemused @ #600 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:14 pm

    TPOF @ #596 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:13 pm

    Bemused

    Why are people still on this treadmill?

    Here, its because it is an ongoing political discussion. In hothouse (but effing cold otherwise) Canberra it is because the Coalition are desperate for a distraction and the press gallery circle jerk still feel they owe it to the government to find some ‘balance’ by finding some Labor person with a dual citizenship.

    Well they sure have got a lot of people on PB chasing their tail.

    Just because you’ve moved on, Father Knows Best, let others have their say.

    Why don’t you do what the rest of us do when some are trying to thrash out an understanding that we’ve no interest in, or have moved on from.

    You could use the scroll wheel, there’s a thought, or introduce a new topic.

    Much easier to just real what a knowledgeable poster (Zoomster) has to say on the topic, take it in and ignore all the static.

  28. …and I remind people of the factional nature of the Labor party. Shorten was not ‘given’ his seat – he tore down a sitting member, who had been invulnerable (despite not doing much) because of his factional connections. Any flaw in Shorten’s candidacy (then or since) would have been thoroughly examined – not by the Liberal party, who know that his seat would be retained by Labor, but Labor colleagues not just in the lead up to 2006 but every election since. People will do a lot if there’s the chance of a guaranteed income for life.

  29. Those lovely christians think that not having a lady mummy and a man daddy is ipso facto per se just because child abuse in itself.

  30. When are the Christian churches and pastors in support of SSM going to get their act together and make their public pitch I wonder?

  31. Bemused

    “Much easier to just real what a knowledgeable poster (Zoomster) has to say on the topic, take it in and ignore all the static”

    Yeah, well do that then, instead of indulging in your favourite pastime of giving any one else who happens to have a different point of view a put-down serve.

    Read and learn.

  32. Rex Douglas (Block)
    Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:17 pm
    Comment #600
    On the other hand, if Bill Shorten is indeed a dual citizen, a quick and clean transition to a new leader would be best for the ALP.

    You’re grasping at straws Rex.

  33. zoomster @ #637 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:53 pm

    …and I remind people of the factional nature of the Labor party. Shorten was not ‘given’ his seat – he tore down a sitting member, who had been invulnerable (despite not doing much) because of his factional connections. Any flaw in Shorten’s candidacy (then or since) would have been thoroughly examined – not by the Liberal party, who know that his seat would be retained by Labor, but Labor colleagues not just in the lead up to 2006 but every election since. People will do a lot if there’s the chance of a guaranteed income for life.

    Well that’s dressing it up somewhat.
    The numbers controlled by notorious branch stacker and rorter, George Seitz, were used to destroy a sitting ALP member who had been good enough to make the ministry.
    I have no particular brief for Bob Sercombe and barely knew him.

  34. kezza2 @ #641 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Bemused

    “Much easier to just real what a knowledgeable poster (Zoomster) has to say on the topic, take it in and ignore all the static”

    Yeah, well do that then, instead of indulging in your favourite pastime of giving any one else who happens to have a different point of view a put-down serve.

    Read and learn.

    I read a lot and learn a lot.

  35. Can I echo Zoomster’s sentiments. It was Bill Shorten’s efforts that gave the disability sector the kick along it needed to organise themselves into a coherent ‘NDIS’ movement. I know because I been working in the sector for over 16 years and attended meetings in 2008 where Shorten really revved up CEOs and other executives from disability agencies to start agitating for an insurance scheme of some type.

  36. bemused @ #647 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 7:10 pm

    kezza2 @ #641 Monday, August 21st, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Bemused

    “Much easier to just real what a knowledgeable poster (Zoomster) has to say on the topic, take it in and ignore all the static”

    Yeah, well do that then, instead of indulging in your favourite pastime of giving any one else who happens to have a different point of view a put-down serve.

    Read and learn.

    I read a lot and learn a lot.

    Good, look forward to you putting in into practice.

  37. One big difference between Labor and those heading for the HC is, not one Labor person replied, “Oh, sh!t!.”

    Their responses have been, “Yeah, so what! I renounced it in mmyy.”

    They’ve all been aware of the issue and have said they took the appropriate actions.

    Most those heading for the HC seem to have been caught off guard and unaware.

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