Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Bk

    And those numbers have no recognition of the cost of emissions.

    Yes – no one is going to take the risk of seeing a future carbon tax lobbed on a fossil fuel plant.
    Apart from a bit of minor gap filling, it is renewables all the way from here.

  2. There was some chatter here last night about a Labor candidate being caught in the dual citizenship net in years gone by…

    The previous case was Sykes v Cleary in 1992. The case disqualified Independent MP for Wills Phil Cleary for holding an “office of profit under the Crown” by Section 44(iv) of the Constitution. This is another archaic part of Section 44, but I won’t delve into its difficulties here.

    The Sykes v Cleary judgement also examined the citizenship status of Cleary’s election opponents. The Liberal candidate was born in Switzerland, was a naturalised Australian citizen, but still had Swiss citizenship. The Labor candidate was Greek born and caught in the same trap, a naturalised Australian but still possessing Greek citizenship.

    The majority of the High Court ruled that both were disqualified as they had not attempted to rid themselves of their foreign citizenship.

    Would have been an incentive for Labor to tighten its candidate vetting procedures.

  3. Pyne named the 5 labor parliamentarians in the house yesterday.

    Braddon MP Justine Kay
    Frank Zappia in S Aus
    The MP for Calwell in VIC

    The two others I forget.

  4. Elaugaufein

    ‘A vetting process is a reasonable step, but I’m doubtful that Labor’s process in particular will set a lower bar, it’s far too high in terms of institutional resources for smaller group..’

    I disagree – as I’ve shown – with several nationalities – it’s fairly easy to check out your status with a quick google. Most countries have on line questionnaires about eligibility. Most also provide information (and downloadable forms) to relinquish citizenship as well.

    Of course, if teh net can’t help, you’d ring the embassy.

  5. Yesterday’s Murdoch tabloids had a megaphoning bootstrap attempt to brand Labor as big taxing – $167b the headlines screamed And in the clever pincer movement, the SmearStralian had Bill Shorten whilst at AWU allegedly donating $100,000 of union money to GetUp!

    And the poor old Greens dreading the tearing apart with the Black Wiggle versus the Trot Lee Rhiannon and her NSW ‘collective’.

    But what to we have today? All these stories swamped by the Bro.

  6. Zoomster
    Labor’s process includes lawyers and checks back to your grandparents. That’s a tad different than some quick checks online.

  7. I checked. Pyne named the labor MPs for the following seats as dual nationals.

    Makin – Tony Zappia.

    Longman – Susan Lamb

    Braddon – Justine Keay

    Calwell – Maria Vamvamkonis

  8. @ Trog – to be completely fair, the Solar Thermal @ $78/MWh is presumably only possible with the Federal Government providing a loan at (I am guessing) a lower repayment rate than a commercial bank would charge. This certainly wouldn’t take the cost to the ~$200 Finkel/Jacobs are implying for 2017, but it would likely be higher.

  9. peg

    The question was whether a Labor candidate had been ‘done’ for holding a position of profit under the Crown, not citizenship.

    My own response outlined the relevant cases, and referred to Phil Cleary ‘et al’ – indicating that more than one candidate was involved in the case, but as it wasn’t for holding a position of profit, I didn’t specify the Labor candidate involved.

    If the question had been around dual citizenship, I would have.

  10. Much was made of these four (thought there was another?) on AM this morning with Pyne hinting that the govt may take it further if these lot didn’t prove that they weren’t dual citizens. WTF indeed.

  11. The question was about me making a comment about a hazily remembered ALP candidate getting hit with s44. Anything else was me trying to recall in response to the usual passive aggressive questioning.

  12. Ides

    I think number 5 was Brendan O’Connor.

    I don’t know about the others, but Vamvakiou and O’Connor are safe seat holders and veterans of several elections, so their backgrounds would have been gone through with a fine tooth comb, not once but several times (if nothing else, by factional opponents looking at knocking them off at pre selection!)

  13. Methinks the Libs are just trying to muddy the waters so they don’t cop the flak alone.

    That ploy of ‘they’re all the same’ tends to stop people blaming one side or another.

  14. Morning all. Interesting comment from Albo on the Greens and their latest crisis:

    Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese said he found Dr Brown’s criticism “surprising”, but correct.

    “He’s quite right in calling out people who’ve gone into his party but who aren’t really loyal to that party,” Mr Albanese told reporters in Canberra.

    The Greens were secretive and harboured many former members of “far-left political parties”, he said.

  15. Elaugaufein

    Yes, as a many times candidate, I know what Labor’s processes are.

    Yes, it’s certainly easier to get admin to do the checks for you.

    No, it’s not at all onerous for the candidate to do the checks themselves.

  16. Z,

    Believe it or not, but my post had nothing to do with anything you might or might not have said.

    Labor got caught in the past and from that point on ensured a more vigorous candidate vetting process was implemented.

  17. I gotta hand it to Albanese, he’s got brass balls for saying that given the early history of the Labor party through significantly after the DLP split.

  18. peg

    You referred to yesterday’s conversation, and characterised it incorrectly.

    I was sure you would want the truth to be out there.

  19. Even Dennis Shanahan thinks Barnaby should stand down from Cabinet.

    Barnaby Joyce will have to step aside at least as a cabinet minister or have the Turnbull government face ongoing parliamentary chaos directed by a determined Labor opposition.

    The ALP’s prime aim is to block the vote of the member for New England in a parliament where the government rules by just one vote, thereby reducing the Coalition to a minority government.

  20. Z

    All in your own mind.

    Your persistent attempts to try for a personal gotcha are always pathetic. But do keep trying.

    All, I did was provide some factual info about something that was discussed last night.

    So shoot me.

  21. Pegasus:

    Di Natale is a failed leader who obviously can’t manage his partyroom. It’s a shame that Ludlam has gone because he’d be a much more inclusive leader than the incumbent.

  22. The line that I can see emerging is that Labor has learnt well from the Abbott/Gillard years and is going to use the same techniques of disruption that Abbott used. So bad Labor.

    False equivalence.
    And when Abbott was a wrecker it was brilliant opposition tactics.

  23. The good people of Sturt need to do Australia a favour and turf him.

    Most of the good people of Sturt like him. I wouldnt rule him out of a tilt at the top job. He cant be worse than the last 2 and would be better than the other 5 many suggest are next in line.

  24. Fess

    Of those that remain only those that did not go on 4Corners are serious about challenging Di Natale as leader.

    How long before they are confident of the numbers will be interesting.

    The tensions were there under Brown and Milne which was amply clear in the 4 Corners piece.

    So I think you are correct and as with all weak leaders its only a matter of time before a challenge unfolds.

  25. There was some chatter here last night about a Labor candidate being caught in the dual citizenship net in years gone by…


    It was about a candidate in an office for profit under the Commonwealth and it was Mike Kelly, as I recall. Better than you it seems. And it was just ‘chatter’ from last night you were unable to recall correctly!

  26. Anyone know if other media outlets are running with the

    Barnaby Joyce citizenship remarks by Malcolm Turnbull close to interfering with High Court: Labor

    as per ABC?

    If it aint interfering it is incompetence. How many times does he have to fluff things before the shine wears off? Is Turnbull a Teflon turd?


    Leader of the New Zealand Labour party, Jacinda Ardern has commented on whether the ALP asked her party to prod the Internal Affairs Department on Barnaby Joyce’s citizenship.

    Ms Ardern has told reporters over the ditch her colleague, Chris Hipkins asked the Internal Affairs Minister a Question on Notice about Mr Joyce.

    She’s implied he was pulled into a broader plot, and he shouldn’t have done it.
    (Chris) was asked a question by an acquaintance in the Australian Labor Party which he couldn’t answer, he asked a question to clarify – he didn’t know who was involved.

    Chris has asked thousands of questions over his time as Education spokesperson – this is not one that should have been a priority for him and I’ve made that very clear.
    Interesting to note, the Kiwis are heading to the polls in a matter of weeks.

    Maybe Ms Ardern reckons it’s a bad look for her MPs to get involved in cross-Tasman party politics.

  28. guytaur:

    Di Natale has tried to be too clever and tricky in transitioning the Greens to the post-Brown and Milne era. Obviously getting rid of Rhiannon is a big part of that, but he botched it, ending up just exacerbating the tensions. He is most definitely a ‘my way or the highway’ type of leader which is never going to work.

  29. C@t,

    I think you will find it was Liberal Jackie Kelly, who got the double whammy of having an office of profit (ADF) and duel citizen. (NZ)

  30. Confessions

    Yes. The arguments from the NSW Greens not being addressed shows.

    As does the fact that Di Natale chose the Gonski funding of public schools as the hill to die on.

    Its why I find the silence of people like Adam Bandt significant.

  31. Hang on. Your logic is that Rachel Siewert, Hanson-Young, Wish-Wilson and Bandt are likely challengers ?

    Unless we’re going to do the idiotic thing where we assume the Greens leader can be in the House the Greens have least influence on, Bandt is instantly out.

    Wish-Wilson will be regarded with even more hostility than Di Natale by Rhiannon’s given his history and some of his prior comments, so that’s not bloody likely

    And Rachel Siewert lacks much in the way of national profile.

    SHY is the only likely contendor from that list, in House, temperament, history and profile and her seat is deeply fricking unsafe , it’s only due NXT also devestating to the ALP vote she held it on preferences at a DD.

    If your logic leads to these people as the likely challengers your logic needs reworking.

  32. BK @ #49 Tuesday, August 15th, 2017 – 7:59 am

    The SMH editorial asserts that Turnbull now must act to change section 44 of the constitution.–the-constitution-must-change-20170814-gxvv4c.html

    I wondered when the campaign for revoking section 44 started in the MSM a few weeks ago whether the government knew they had a few skeletons in the closet. Turns out they probably did.

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