The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.
Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.
“Senator Smith he will not attempt to introduce his bill until after the plebiscite and postal vote options are exhausted.
He is “disappointed we didn’t win the day” but the past few weeks have shown the community is ready to support same-sex marriage.
“We have moved further down the road of being able to secure a parliamentary free vote.”
How sadly predictable.
MagdaSzubanski: If u r associating me with supporting pedophiles you might want to lawyer up This exactly the kind of ugly smear we concerned about twitter.com/sharpfang/stat…
https://twitter.com/magdaszubanski/status/894765788283805696
Bob’s Uncle @ #350 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 1:42 pm
Yeah, and the road is filled with potholes and landmines, and doesn’t go anywhere anyway.
Bob’s Uncle @ #350 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 1:42 pm
I think what he meant to say was “We have kicked the can further down the road of being able to secure a parliamentary free vote”
“Nationals senator Matt Canavan says he doesn’t believe he contravened Section 44 of the Constitution, but supports the matter being referred to the High Court.
Senator Canavan says he will not vote in the Senate while the court investigates his citizenship records.”
Interesting, so current numbers with Roberts still voting will be
LNP 26 (29 minus Canavan minus pairs for Ludlam and Waters)
Labor 26
Greens 7 (9 minus Ludlam and Waters)
Other 12
71 total votes, so 36 for a majority.
So a blocking vote is Labor + Greens + 3 others. This means that NXT can currently block without anyone else joining.
Has anyone else noticed that the pollbludger.com domain isn’t working?
You wonder what planet these parents live on …
… but wherever it is, you can bet it is chock full of easily preventable communicable diseases!
Same sex marriage is one of a number of issues where the Liberals basically can’t move because of the opposition of key (and mostly well-funded) supporters to any effective action to address what is clearly a mess. The list includes:
– Effective action on Climate change (mining and other business interests)
– Housing affordability (so-called “investors”, developer interests, real estate industry)
– Indigenous recognition (mining and pastoral interests, bigots)
– Tax avoidance (Big Business)
– Banking behaviour (the big banks)
– power costs (privatised power distributors. See also “climate change”)
– same sex marriage (Big Churchianity, bigots)
Good afternoon all,
Interesting that Turnbull made the deliberate statement that he was ” a strong leader”.
During my travels through life I have found that people who pump themselves up and feel the need to vocally assert a particular positive character trait about themselves are, in fact, very insecure and the direct opposite of what they articulate.
If Turnbull felt the need to state he was a ” strong leader ” then he is in a lot of trouble and he knows it.
Cheers.
Anyone with a legal background got an opinion on the way the shambolic sham of a federal government is using the Australian Bureau of Statistics to run the postal plebiscite, in conjunction with the Electoral Commission? Is that the way they can legally get around being able to do it and thus will survive the challenge to it in the High Court?
Just testing to see if the new site can embed tweets. I’m sure it has been tried before.
EDIT: Kind-of worked I guess.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/it-it-gets-up-the-samesex-marriage-postal-plebiscite-could-break-the-abs-20170808-gxrmml.html
Interesting that Turnbull made the deliberate statement that he was ” a strong leader”.
I also noted that in his Plebiscite press conference today Turnbull affected a swagger by putting his hand in his pants pocket and grinning like a loon.
I wasn’t convinced. Well, I was, actually. I was convinced it was just another act from Turnbull. Just another carapace he has assumed in his ongoing and endless attempts to convince the nation he is something that he is not. However, as Howard was wont to say, wtte, ‘in the end the great good sense of the Australian people will find you out’.
Amen to that.
@ C@t – the economists all seem to believe a challenge would have a good chance.
The Age’s economics editor, Peter Martin, writes.
Economics reporter Eryk Bagshaw makes a point about the “Finance Minister’s advance” mentioned by Senator Cormann (see 12.09 pm post).
cud chewer
What is it that is not working? What are you looking for?
guytaur @ #317 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 12:41 pm
guytaur @ #320 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 12:45 pm
guytaur @ #325 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 12:52 pm
guytaur @ #345 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 1:32 pm
All so so so true. All so so so sick and sad. All so so so predictable.
There may have been a time where it was reasonable to be a Liberal voter. But that time is long past. There is nought but bigotry, stupidity, and venality among the lot of em. If you support these arseholes you can be nothing but an arsehole yourself. Any ‘Liberal’ (sic) who tries to bullshit you that their’s is the party of individual freedom deserves a punch in the mouth. Any ‘Liberal’ (sick) who tries to bullshit you that their’s is the party of economic responsibility deserves a kick in the groin followed by a brick upside the head.
What they are has been hidden in plain sight so long it takes a huge effort to ignore it. But let’s cut to the chase. It isn’t really ignored, it’s celebrated. The one unifying belief is simple – ‘it’s better to be the one doing the kicking than the one being kicked’. It doesn’t matter who the target is, poor people, low paid workers, young people, foreigners, gays. Just so long as they can define their tribe against the other and give em a damn good kicking. They might let some of these groups into the fringes of the tribe if they have a bit of dough or are particularly keen on kicking on of the other targets, but those kind are never really in. I cannot imagine a more contemptible shitcan of turds.
So the SSM ‘plebiscite’ will be a glorified survey by the ABS – at $122 million it would have to be pretty glorious.
I have no idea what the legalities are. We can assume that plans have been drawn up and legally vetted and the Government is pretty sure that they can get away with it. To risk sounding like a broken record, what if Labor in Government tried something similar. Just imagine the howls of outrage from the usual quarters.
The proposed all-voter postal survey is a totally inappropriate abdication of the responsibilities of government, a huge waste of taxpayers’ money and potentially a terrible precedent for Australian national governance.
Even though I strongly support marriage equality I feel more strongly opposed to the use of a public survey or plebiscite other than when it is required for a process of proposed Constitutional change.
For my part, I will mark any plebiscite or survey paper with a statement that it is not an appropriate act of government. I hope many others do the same and show up this process for the political farce that it is.
“If the plebiscite results in a majority ‘Yes’ vote, Coalition MPs will be allowed a free vote in Parliament on a bill to legalise same-sex marriage. They will not be bound to vote in line with the result of the public ballot. If the plebiscite returns a majority ‘No’ result, the government will not allow a free vote, meaning MPs will remain bound to change, even if in opposition.”
This is silly.
Since a YES vote in any plebiscite leads to a free vote in Parliament where members are not bound to vote according to the plebiscite result, a NO vote in any plebiscite should also lead to a free vote in Parliament where members are not bound to vote according to the plebiscite result.
That would be fair and reasonable under the circumstances. A vote in Parliament costs nothing to do.
As against $122M for a fwarking plebiscite that has no authority or real meaning (doesn’t bind anyone) that is happening purely to paper over cracks in the Liberal and National parties, and so that they can bang on about keeping promises when they have a history of breaking them anyway.
Pure nasty politics. Turnbull is weak as. He has totally rolled over and is waving his paws in the air to appease the RWNJ element.
Doyley
Good afternoon all,
Interesting that Turnbull made the deliberate statement that he was ” a strong leader”.
During my travels through life I have found that people who pump themselves up and feel the need to vocally assert a particular positive character trait about themselves are, in fact, very insecure and the direct opposite of what they articulate.
**********************
As Granma used to say “Self Praise is no recommendation “
zackster: Looks like Matthew Guy is gonna resign at 2:30pm #springst
So, after their cosy and expensive dinner, can we now say, in police speak, that Matthew Guy is a “known associate” of notorious Mafia boss Tony Maddaferri?
Cracker of a question from Shorten.
Mr Turnbull angry in response. Not going to look good on tele tonight
[Greensborough Growler
Going by the reports I have read, he did more than that. But, as i said, I think he’s in trouble.
The question for the Labor MHR is whether sending the application is sufficient to comply with the letter of the law.
My understanding is notification that her application was processed did not occur till after the election.
But, these are only my observations.]
Yes, by the letter of the Constitution she should be deemed ineligible as she held citizenship of another country at the time nominations closed.
But the HC has ruled that a person is not disqualified if they take reasonable steps to renounce any other citizenships they have.
The unclear point here as I understand it is;
1. does the reasonable measures only apply in the case of a country that refuses to accept renouncement’s of citizenship;
or;
2. does it also apply to someone who has started the process to renounce their citizenship but have yet to receive notification of the renouncement. Here the HC would have to decide at what stage in the process it was deemed reasonable steps had been taken.
If the Roberts case is referred, the HC may address this point as it seems relevant to the case.
If they came down with position 1, then the Tas. Labor Member would be in trouble.
If they came down with position 2, then opinion suggest she would meet any reasonable steps guidelines.
@guytaur – who is zackster. Are they reputable?
TheKennyDevine: Why so angry, @TurnbullMalcolm?
It’s not as if you’ve been forced to abandon everything you once stood for.
Oh…
#qt
VE
Guy is dong a presser at 2:30. Age has transcripts of telephone recordings contradicting Guy’s morning statements.
As for zackster. I have found a good source to watch for looking for breaking news
TPOF @ #367 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 2:08 pm
All this and more. This is a flat out attack on our system of representative government and brazen theft of millions of dollars so a ‘leader’ (sic joke) so piss weak he has to tell people how strong he is might keep his job for a few more weeks. It didn’t work for piece of shit that thought it up and it won’t work for the even bigger pile of shit that has picked it up and taken it as his own.
Conservatives! What a fucking joke. Reactionary ratbags. Scum.
We have a functioning representative democracy (although how functional seems to be inversely proportional to how many Liberals (sic sic sic) are involved in it). A real conservative would be disgusted by even the idea of this sham. A real conservative would be screaming the house down on how this is the thin edge of the wedge and how all sorts of madness is likely to follow.
But there are no real conservatives now. Just right wing nutjobs of varying flavours but all of them a variety of bile. Tribalists who couldn’t give a flying fuck who gets hurt so long as they win power and keep power. This country needs to wake the fuck up.
[guytaur
SkyNewsAust: .@vanOnselenP: the postal plebiscite on gay marriage is driven to a large extent by ‘bigotry’ from the Liberal right bit.ly/2woJEGK pic.twitter.com/8tDs2HZByv
https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/894760906248167430]
That is scathing, good to see some are willing to expose them for what they are.
Barney – I will be amazed if the High Court makes eligibility depend upon whether a foreign country is fast or slow in processing the paper work. You submit the paper work and, surely, that is enough.
Dorothy Dixer is very concerned about security.
Tanya nails it:
Tanya Plibersek to Turnbull: Why is it that a no vote will be binding on the government but a yes vote will not?
Turnbull:
The commitment we took to the election was simply this, that we would ask all – give all Australians their say. If they supported same-sex marriage being legalised, we would facilitate a bill, a private member’s bill, coming forward into the parliament. If they did not support it, we would not.
VE
Everyone disqualified by HC stuff has been granted a pair (someone who would vote opposite abstaining). Also the Senate almost never requires absolute majorities (no one is presumed to have control so there’s no reason to in day to day operation), as such you can deduct any absent / pairs / abstainers from the size of the senate before calculating the required threshold).
That changes your numbers a bit (it’s something like a majority of 3 before ALP defections in the Senate. It may actually be 5 since it seems like there’s a non-zero chance Lambie had changed her position).
Out of interest, I looked up non-response rates for the 2016 Census.
The best response rates were the over 65s; the worst were the under 30s.
Something tells me these stats were already in hand before the decision was made …
guytaur
TheKennyDevine: Why so angry, @TurnbullMalcolm?
It’s not as if you’ve been forced to abandon everything you once stood for.
Oh…
********************
A total hypocrite , we can all ask whether you have abandoned good principles ………. or whether you ever had any.
Speaking of security, haven’t all events in OZ that could be called terrorism happened since the L-NP got elected Federally?
Great. Shorten calling them out. Wow just wow. Turnbull being forced to associate with the bigots.
[Voice Endeavour
“Nationals senator Matt Canavan says he doesn’t believe he contravened Section 44 of the Constitution, but supports the matter being referred to the High Court.
Senator Canavan says he will not vote in the Senate while the court investigates his citizenship records.”
Interesting, so current numbers with Roberts still voting will be
LNP 26 (29 minus Canavan minus pairs for Ludlam and Waters)
Labor 26
Greens 7 (9 minus Ludlam and Waters)
Other 12
71 total votes, so 36 for a majority.
So a blocking vote is Labor + Greens + 3 others. This means that NXT can currently block without anyone else joining.]
My understanding is that the Green pairs would come from both Labor and the Government.
If the Greens are opposing legislation then the Government would supply the pairs,
but if they are supporting the Government and Labor is opposing then Labor would supply the pairs.
This would maintain the position that would exist if they were both sitting in the Senate.
laurenhilbert: Matthew Guy referring himself to IBAC, says he’s confident he has done nothing wrong. @3AW693 #Springst pic.twitter.com/Zy32xIQgXH
https://twitter.com/laurenhilbert/status/894778503467384832
[antonbruckner11
Barney – I will be amazed if the High Court makes eligibility depend upon whether a foreign country is fast or slow in processing the paper work. You submit the paper work and, surely, that is enough.]
It seems the common sense approach but …
Dorothy is back on security.
The last time a PM was so off side with a social issue with the Australian people was Howard with the apology.
SwannyQLD: The Trumpification of the Turnbull Liberal Party is in full swing – irrational plebiscite, pandering to the hard right… #auspol
The HC may actually consider processing time relevant. Going through the normal process could potentially be rejected on some technicality that requires trivial correction, and following standard procedures like that is probably within reasonable means.
It depends on how anal-retentive this HC bench is. The 92 was extremely so, so precedent leans towards that standards wise.
Morrison very shouty today.
Ratsak, TPOF and others – I am totally disgusted by the possibility that my rights and the rights of LGBT people are being put up for a vote. I am also disgusted with this abuse of Australia’s democratic and constitutional norms.
However, I would respectfully ask that if a plebiscite/postal vote does take place, that everyone here and anyone reading who supports marriage equality, make the time and effort to vote. If the plebiscite/postal vote does occur, then it will requires the pragmatism of good people to overcome this blatantly harmful outcome into a better one.
It is so important that the bigots, homophobes, craven opportunists, and the selfish all be shown that they are a minority and that those supporting justice and equality comprise the great majority of the Australian people.
Never fear, Scotty is here. He’s a bit angry-happy.
Did the Sex Pistols ever do Happy days are here again?
WeFightForFair: We will provide pro bono legal advice for plebiscite or postal vote vilification cases #marriageequality #auspol
mauriceblackburn.com.au/about/media-ce… pic.twitter.com/s14EaZqrgY
https://twitter.com/wefightforfair/status/894771458609528832
https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/894760906248167430
So close PVO. Yes, it’s an attack on our institutions that real conservatives wouldn’t countenance in a million years, yes it’s driven purely by bigotry.
But not blaming Trumble. Saying he’s not a bigot? It is his fault. It can only happen because of his rank cowardice. A bigot is as a bigot does. This is driven by bigotry and everyone involved in it is a bigot.
If Trumble wasn’t a bigot he’d have stopped it. He might not be so much of a bigot that he’d die in a ditch to stop the gays getting married. But he’s more than enough of a bigot to continue the farce when he has the power to end it. Oh, but it might cost him his fucking precious if he did the right thing? Disgusting slug, and everyone who makes excuses for him is a fool.
Previous leaders may have failed to make this happen when it should and could have been done and they wear their failure. But this invertebrate has the overwhelming support of the country to just stand the fuck up for once in his miserable existence. But he squibs it because doing the right thing for people being discriminated against might cause on of the most privileged men in the country to lose a position he hasn’t the first idea how to perform. It might be bigotry driven by cowardice, but that doesn’t stop it being bigotry.
Abbott will always be a better man than you Trumble. Tony Fucking Nutjob Abbott. The man who is a very disease on our nation. That Tony Abbott. He will always be better than you on your best day Brian Trumble.
JimmyDoyle @ #395 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 2:41 pm
Unfortunately, many people outside places like this blog have no strong feelings one way or another on this issue, so I expect there will be a huge non-response to any postal survey. Of course, this is probably exactly what the LNP hopes for.