Sunday snippets

A whole bunch of preselection news, plus retrospective findings from an Australia Institute survey on the Rudd government’s handling of the global financial crisis.

Three bits of opinion polling news:

• As you can see in the post below this one, there is a poll of Queensland state voting intention in today’s Sunday Mail newspaper. This presumably means a result on federal voting intention from the same poll can be expected this evening.

• An in-house survey from The Australia Institute examines “public attitudes to the federal government’s handling of the global financial crisis, ten years on”. The Labor government of the time is remembered as having done a good job, with 57-24 breaking in favour of the proposition that “Australians should be proud of how its government handled the GFC”. Other findings are a 62-22 split in favour of the proposition that a recession would have unfolded without “large fiscal stimulus”; 48-31 considering borrowing to fund the stimulus was the right thing to do; 45-37 lining up against the proposition that it would have been better to go without stimulus to avoid further debt; and, more narrowly, 42-37 opposed to the notion that the fiscal stimulus policies were “poorly designed and excessive”.

• A ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on same-sex marriage, targeting six seats in Queensland and Western Australia with Coalition MPs with undeclared positions on the subject, finds support for same-sex marriage at over 50% in Hasluck, Moncrieff, Ryan, Swan and Tangney, and at 48% in Stirling with 42% opposed. Similar proportions of respondents favour a free vote being held in parliament “as soon as possible”.

And a whole bunch on preselection, where balls are already starting to roll ahead of a federal election still nearly two years away:

• Western Australia’s Liberal Party has confirmed Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, to fill the casual Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Back. Brockman won 89 votes out of 131 at a vote of the party’s state council held on July 22, from a field that also included former state MPs Michael Sutherland and Mark Lewis.

• The New South Wales ALP’s Left faction has endorsed Tim Ayres, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, to take a factionally reserved Senate position presently occupied by Doug Cameron, who will not contest the next election. The Australian reports the ballot was boycotted by the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Maritime Union of Australia, who were apparently angered by the AMWU’s lock on a seat that stands to be filled consecutively by three of the union’s leaders (George Campbell, Doug Cameron and now Tim Ayres).

Samantha Hutchison of The Australian reports that Michael Danby, Labor’s member for Melbourne Ports since 1998, is “facing pressure to bow out” at the next election. Labor has held the seat since 1906, but Danby was given a two-pronged scare at the last election, only narrowly edging the Greens by 24,340 votes to 23,387 to survive to the final count, and then emerging with a 1.4% margin over the Liberals, down from 2.2% in 2013. According to the report, Ari Suss, a Linfox executive and former staffer to Steve Bracks who shares Danby’s Jewish background (together with Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth, Melbourne is one of two seats in the country where over 10% of the population identifies as Jewish). The Greens have already preselected their candidate from 2016, Steph Hodgins-May, whom Danby placed last on his how-to-vote card after she pulled out of a debate organised by Zionism Victoria.

Katie Burgess of the Canberra Times reports preselection reforms in Labor’s Australian Capital Territory branch have been “criticised by the party’s right as a way for the left to gain control of a possible third federal seat”, which the territory stands to gain with the latest population-related entitlement determination. The changes have dispensed with requirements that members be branch members for at least 12 months and attend a certain number of meetings in a year to be eligible to vote in preselection ballots, which will reportedly triple the voter base. Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times earlier reported that the most commonly mentioned name for a new position secured by the Left was Angie Drake, staffer to Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry and unsuccessful candidate for Brindabella at last year’s territory election.

Sky News reports that John Ruddick, a prominent proponent of reforms to democratise the party’s preselection process, as endorsed a fortnight ago at a special party convention, will challenge Trent Zimmerman for preselection in his seat of North Sydney. Zimmerman is a moderate factional operative, and one of the Liberals’ four openly gay federal MPs.

• State upper house MP Mehreen Faruqi has announced she will seek preselection to lead the party’s Senate ticket at the next election, setting up a contest with Lee Rhiannon should she choose to nominate again, which is yet to be determined.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

541 comments on “Sunday snippets”

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  1. Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #357 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:07 pm

    rewrite

    So are those picked up for the alleged plane plot charged with anything to do with terrorism? The MSM is telling me that we just avoided a near-miss of terrible proportions but other media, linked here and other sites, and including one ABC report on this by a terrorism expert one of our universities, say the plot was not feasible. Apparently, the suspects have not been charged with anything to do with terror plots, and are out on bail.

    Since when do alleged terror plotters get bail?

    They don’t as far as I am aware.

  2. Why would anyone be carrying a meat mincer in their carry-on luggage? Especially if no-one recognised it?
    It would be certain that the bag would be opened and inspected, even just to find out what the strange object was.

    These alleged plotters must be dopes or the whole thing is a convenience for Truffles.

  3. poroti @ #301 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    The latest Shock Horror news on the “terrorists”. A plastic sword must be due for an appearance.

    THE last of the four men to be arrested over an alleged Islamic State-orchestrated terrorist plot to blow up a passenger plane has been freed by police this afternoon with no terror charges being laid.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/final-suspect-arrested-during-raids-charged-with-weapons-offence-and-freed/news-story/5744c1855aae4c38cd5699352766cb64

    What happened to the father and son who were going to be charged?

  4. Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #363 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    Why would anyone be carrying a meat mincer in their carry-on luggage? Especially if no-one recognised it?
    It would be certain that the bag would be opened and inspected, even just to find out what the strange object was.

    These alleged plotters must be dopes or the whole thing is a convenience for Truffles.

    Do you even listen to reports or read them?
    The meat mincer was concealed in the luggage of an unwitting brother of one of those now facing charges.
    Imagine the type of person who would do that to their own brother or any close relative.

    I am starting to understand why you hold some of the beliefs you do.

  5. It’s Time @ #365 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:16 pm

    poroti @ #301 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:17 pm

    The latest Shock Horror news on the “terrorists”. A plastic sword must be due for an appearance.

    THE last of the four men to be arrested over an alleged Islamic State-orchestrated terrorist plot to blow up a passenger plane has been freed by police this afternoon with no terror charges being laid.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/final-suspect-arrested-during-raids-charged-with-weapons-offence-and-freed/news-story/5744c1855aae4c38cd5699352766cb64

    What happened to the father and son who were going to be charged?

    Pay attention. They are in custody and facing serious charges. Being held in Super Max.

  6. I don’t think there’s anything known to criticise plod about re our latest terror plot foiled on the actual catch the bad guys front.

    BUT.

    The miraculous coincidence that TV crews are right on the spot, and the PM taking the lead role in breaking the news are symptoms of a rotten state. It’s one thing for a head of government (or state) to make a major announcement after an ACTUAL Terrorist attack. But the politicising of policing is a dangerous and reflects badly on both the police and politicians involved.

    The fact I’m not more surprised to see Trumble trying to play terrorism for votes than I was when Abbott did it makes it no less disgusting. The issue isn’t if the accused are convicted or not. The bloody PM’s job is not and should never be announcing arrests for any accused crime. Separation of powers exists for a (good) reason. The ways Trumble has disqualified himself from his job are of course limitless, but this is one of the more serious ones, but sadly overlooked.

  7. Socrates
    Briefly
    I agree with you about the risks you describe, and that any bank can commit a crime. In fact, we seem to have a few that actually do commit crimes. But not many bankers are getting charged.

    The point is that the banks themselves – the corporate entities – have the capacity to commit crimes.
    What do we do with bank that has a criminal conviction or that faces criminal charges? They cannot be imprisoned, but they can be fined. And they can – indeed, they must – have their licences revoked. Entities that have convictions that involve the deceptive and/or dishonest use of monies really should not – must never – be allowed to operate in the financial system. Yet they do.

    This is the single most important prudential issue in banking in this country as well as in every other jurisdiction. But it has been studiously ignored.

    One day, some hedge fund is going to realise they can make a killing by betting against a criminally-liable bank. There is nothing to stop that. It will happen. It could happen here. It might happen to the CBA…and if it were to happen, it will affect Commonwealth finances and taxpayers.

    The Banking act must be reformed to deal with such situations so that dishonest banks can be dealt with other than by invoking criminal laws.

  8. Confessions

    As usual you have comprehension issues.

    My comments had NOTHING directly to do with Trump. I am working on the assumption that he will leave, either by resigning or impeachment.

    As I assume you do understand, this means Pence becomes POTUS (or do you think there is another election? – there aint’)

    The chances of the republican dominated congress impeaching one of their own (Pence who is one of theirs unlike maverick Trump) are next to zero unless he is caught kiddy fiddling.

    So I was moving on 3 years. Get it.

    Pence is the most likely winner -even you I guess can grasp this, given historical precedent.

    Then we come to my conjecture which is that even if Pence falls out of it, the NEXT most likely will be another maverick populist eg a military guy or just possibly Bernie.

    Third likely is a mainstream democrat. Is this so very complex.

    Now partlythis was triggered by THIS article
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/08/do-the-democrats-know-how-much-trouble-they-are-in.php

    Yes it is from a RWNJ outlet (posted on the very sane RCP) and it is the map and the numbers that are interesting. It a bloody great sea of Red. Not sure why. Those of you who spend your days scouring the US media could perhaps source some explanations. But whatever way you look at it, especially after the recent failure to win seats, the Democrat position looks troubling.

    Comprehend or should I put it in words of one syllable.

  9. bemused @ #333 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:55 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #339 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:51 pm

    The problem I have with the meat grinder theory is that it is not a sealed container. Packed with explosives it would function more like a rocket than a bomb.
    Over to you, P1.

    It would obviously have to be sealed in some way.

    Okay, so I think that we are functioning here by thinking about the wrong sort of meat grinder. It wasn’t the hand-cranked traditional Italian or Spong types that have been pictured around the place. I actually saw the one that was going to be used on one of the news broadcasts and it looked like one of these (which could be easily stuffed with explosive and sealed):

  10. ratsak:

    There is also the Abbott era history of asking agencies to trawl for media opportunities for announcements re terror related incidents.

    This latest incident was obviously a hot one given they’ve got arrests and people facing court. But when it comes to this mob, I don’t think you can 100% rule our opportunistic populism.

  11. Good evening all,

    I note that there has been some reference in posts to members of the labor caucus voting against any SSM legislation presented in coming days or at the very least abstain.

    When I last looked the current labor policy re SSM is for caucus to have a conscience vote on the issue, a position confirmed at National Conference. Any member(s) of the labor caucus who votes against the legislation or decides to abstain is therefore perfectly entitled to do so.

    Cheers.

  12. bemused @ #332 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:55 pm

    It would obviously have to be sealed in some way.

    Not necessarily. Not if it’s being used on an aircraft, at cruising altitude and speed anyways. And wasn’t that the idea?

    You just need to generate enough of an overpressure front to rupture the cargo container and the exterior skin of the aircraft (doesn’t take much to do either). The internal pressurization and the rapid increase in drag as the airframe suddenly becomes significantly less aerodynamic will amplify the damage, possibly to catastrophic levels.

  13. grimace
    briefly @ #361 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 5:20 pm

    Socrates
    Briefly

    The Banking act must be reformed to deal with such situations so that dishonest banks can be dealt with other than by invoking criminal laws.

    Quite easy, you lock up the directors.

    Yeah. But this does not alter the situation for the financial system or the economy. A criminal bank will be an insolvent bank. If a major bank were to become insolvent, there would be very serious economic consequences and the reverberations would be felt in public finances and in heightened risks to taxpayers.

    The Banking Act needs to be reformed.

  14. ratsak @ #369 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:19 pm

    I don’t think there’s anything known to criticise plod about re our latest terror plot foiled on the actual catch the bad guys front.

    BUT.

    The miraculous coincidence that TV crews are right on the spot, and the PM taking the lead role in breaking the news are symptoms of a rotten state. It’s one thing for a head of government (or state) to make a major announcement after an ACTUAL Terrorist attack. But the politicising of policing is a dangerous and reflects badly on both the police and politicians involved.

    The fact I’m not more surprised to see Trumble trying to play terrorism for votes than I was when Abbott did it makes it no less disgusting. The issue isn’t if the accused are convicted or not. The bloody PM’s job is not and should never be announcing arrests for any accused crime. Separation of powers exists for a (good) reason. The ways Trumble has disqualified himself from his job are of course limitless, but this is one of the more serious ones, but sadly overlooked.

    Well I can and do criticise the plod on this case.
    Unless I have missed some reporting, our Border Farce and plod were entirely unaware anything was afoot until they were tipped off by overseas authorities.
    Happy to be corrected on this.

  15. What the hell is that last sentence supposed to mean?
    I am trying to clear up the confusion I have around what is going on with reports of this incident. And if one brother set the other up like that, then he is a dope and a bastard to boot.

    If you don’t like my beliefs perhaps you would like to suggest some more to your liking?

    bemused @ #356 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:47 pm

    Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #363 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    Do you even listen to reports or read them?
    The meat mincer was concealed in the luggage of an unwitting brother of one of those now facing charges.
    Imagine the type of person who would do that to their own brother or any close relative.

    I am starting to understand why you hold some of the beliefs you do.

  16. bemused

    WTF is going on with Border Farce?

    In regard to incoming freight bugger all of it is checked. We don’t have the numbers of people or equipment to scan/check it. What we do check is a result of profile targeting.

  17. C@tmomma @ #374 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:25 pm

    bemused @ #333 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:55 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #339 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:51 pm

    The problem I have with the meat grinder theory is that it is not a sealed container. Packed with explosives it would function more like a rocket than a bomb.
    Over to you, P1.

    It would obviously have to be sealed in some way.

    Okay, so I think that we are functioning here by thinking about the wrong sort of meat grinder. It wasn’t the hand-cranked traditional Italian or Spong types that have been pictured around the place. I actually saw the one that was going to be used on one of the news broadcasts and it looked like one of these (which could be easily stuffed with explosive and sealed):

    That is a powered appliance so they would have to remove the motor etc to pack much explosive in it. That would be picked up easily with an X-ray.
    The hand types I have seen have a larger tube to feed in the meat. I would guess that would be where the explosive would go.
    Were the cops showing off their evidence? I would be surprised and suspect the TV program just grabbed whatever meat mincer they could to show off.

  18. Briefly

    I am not going to argue th economics of the US with you but ffs read just a little wider.

    There are huge issues on the horizon. Sure they might be avoided but they might not.

    1. There is another of the US debt ceiling issues looming on 29 September. With the tea party congress plus Trump who can say they WILL lift it. I could see Trump deliberately defaulting on the Chinese debt (and even the Japanese) – he is unlikely to be gone by 29 September.

    2. Even if it does not happen in a hurry there are obviously pressures on the US dollar as the reserve currency. You can bet 100% that one outcome of the sanctions on Russia and Iran plus the THAAD in South Korea will be to encourage definitely Iran and Russia and China (which has this as a long term aim) to settle debt in gold or maybe yuan. Now all the theory says that this will push up interest rates, consumer prices and slow economic growth – I am not going to try to explain this as it is just theory I have read and make no claim to be fully on top of it.

    The bland assumption that the US debt does not matter is true but ONLY because they are rthe reserve currently. If that takes a hit then everything I have read suggests that it would be bad news for the US economy.

  19. Catmomma,
    That picture of the meat grinder clears things up a bit. As you said, not the old hand crank thing, one of which is in the back of a cupboard in my kitchen.

    Still, not the sort of thing to go into hand luggage unless one is avoiding checked-in luggage and the wait at the carousel.

  20. daretotread – re the phone/ADSL problem with Telstra:

    This happened to us a year or two back, the ADSL working but the phone not.

    First I checked the Telstra website which said how to run tests (on ADSL splitter etc). When that didn’t fix the problem we rang Telstra using Skype on the computer and waited an hour to be connected to somebody at their Philippines call centre. (Ringing a 1300 number on the mobile would have been prohibitively expensive.) They then told us to run the tests again but I said “no” as I would lose my place in the long queue at the call centre. Essentially Telstra wants to firstly blame the customer for any problems.

    They then posted the job and a few days later the phone started working again, so at least it wasn’t my fault.

  21. a r @ #378 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    bemused @ #332 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:55 pm

    It would obviously have to be sealed in some way.

    Not necessarily. Not if it’s being used on an aircraft, at cruising altitude and speed anyways. And wasn’t that the idea?

    You just need to generate enough of an overpressure front to rupture the cargo container and the exterior skin of the aircraft (doesn’t take much to do either). The internal pressurization and the rapid increase in drag as the airframe suddenly becomes significantly less aerodynamic will amplify the damage, possibly to catastrophic levels.

    I stopped dabbling with explosives when fireworks were banned. 😛
    I bow to your superior knowledge.

  22. bemused

    until they were tipped off by overseas authorities.

    Said to be due to UK authorities telling us that unless action was taken in regard to info previously given they would issue a travel warning.

  23. Doyley
    Good evening all,

    I note that there has been some reference in posts to members of the labor caucus voting against any SSM legislation presented in coming days or at the very least abstain.

    When I last looked the current labor policy re SSM is for caucus to have a conscience vote on the issue, a position confirmed at National Conference. Any member(s) of the labor caucus who votes against the legislation or decides to abstain is therefore perfectly entitled to do so.

    Cheers.

    I wonder if there is a mystery rule somewhere that would allow the National Executive Committee to suspend the National Conference policy and enforce a vote.

    Or if…on the day…those opposed to ME may simply abstain…

  24. Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #381 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    What the hell is that last sentence supposed to mean?
    I am trying to clear up the confusion I have around what is going on with reports of this incident. And if one brother set the other up like that, then he is a dope and a bastard to boot.

    If you don’t like my beliefs perhaps you would like to suggest some more to your liking?

    bemused @ #356 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 6:47 pm

    Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #363 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    Do you even listen to reports or read them?
    The meat mincer was concealed in the luggage of an unwitting brother of one of those now facing charges.
    Imagine the type of person who would do that to their own brother or any close relative.

    I am starting to understand why you hold some of the beliefs you do.

    Just a reference to your counter-factual beliefs on Australian politics circa June 2010.

    To simplify the latest terrorism issue.

    4 taken into custody.
    1 fairly quickly released.
    2 charged with serious terrorism offences and banged up in the Super Max.
    1 Charged with a firearm offence and released on police bail.

  25. Citizen

    re the phone/ADSL problem

    Won’t disconnecting the splitter and plugging the phone in by itself tell you if the splitter is faulty?

  26. CTar1 @ #383 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:32 pm

    bemused

    WTF is going on with Border Farce?

    In regard to incoming freight bugger all of it is checked. We don’t have the numbers of people or equipment to scan/check it. What we do check is a result of profile targeting.

    So we don’t place much value on checking incoming freight. Or at least the Govt doesn’t.

  27. Citizen

    Absolutely
    Same with me. They tied to make out it was internal and I said rubbish.hey checked the line and agreed there was a problem, but that was Thursday and I still have no phone.

  28. As usual you have comprehension issues.

    No, it isn’t me accusing PhoenixRed of being a Pence supporter or a warmonger, something I’ve noted you’ve done on numerous occasions now, even though there is nothing in his posts that could lead any rational, sensible person to believe that’s his motivation.

    Instead, as usual, it’s your own lack of comprehension that means you can’t possibly fathom that people could want to see Trump gone because of his chaotic, dysfunctional and incompetent leadership is a danger to the rest of the world. Instead you choose to take childish potshots at those of us who are alarmed at this chaos and dysfunction by acting out irrationally simply because you don’t have the intellectual heft to wrap your uncomprehending brain around a simple concept that it is possible to disagree with the policy platform for the Republicans and simultaneously see the greater danger in the incumbent Potus and want him gone even if it means a more stable GOP Potus in Pence.

    But this is why most PBers regard you as a joke and a flake. You just don’t get it. You never have and it’s highly likely you never will.

  29. Fess
    Armadillo 1, Armed Idiot 0.

    The man was airlifted to a nearby hospital, where his jaw was wired shut, according to Rowe.

    Probably to stop his tiny brain rolling out.

  30. daretotread
    Briefly

    I am not going to argue th economics of the US with you ..

    There is no problem with the US debt. The US will not repudiate its debts…and in any case would have no possible means of choosing “Chinese” or “Japanese” creditors.

    All manner of individuals, corporations and governments need to hold reserves for all kinds of purposes. The USD is a preferred reserve unit. This is not going to change unless of course Trump goes totally off his rocker…in which case he will be instantly removed.

  31. Briefly,

    It will be interesting to see what some caucus members do if the legislation is actually presented.

    Perhaps, as you have considered, some may simply abstain. However, current policy is clear and was hard won at National Conference so I see no change to that policy even being considered.

    As they say in the classics, it is what it is.

    I have no problem with any caucus member who does vote against or abstains.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  32. confessions

    …..this is why most PBers regard you as a joke and a flake. You just don’t get it. You never have and it’s highly likely you never will.

    Oh, so well put, fess. Nailed it!

  33. CTar1
    Citizen

    re the phone/ADSL problem

    Won’t disconnecting the splitter and plugging the phone in by itself tell you if the splitter is faulty?

    Doing that was probably part of the required test – unfortunately I don’t remember the details.

    Telstra now seems to have a website where you can raise issues and other more technologically minded people give answers (useful or not).

    https://crowdsupport.telstra.com.au/t5/Home-Phones/landline-keeps-going-dead-no-dial-tone-but-adsl-internet-works/td-p/390743 for this particular issue.

  34. Doyley @ #367 Sunday, August 6th, 2017 – 7:27 pm

    Good evening all,

    I note that there has been some reference in posts to members of the labor caucus voting against any SSM legislation presented in coming days or at the very least abstain.

    When I last looked the current labor policy re SSM is for caucus to have a conscience vote on the issue, a position confirmed at National Conference. Any member(s) of the labor caucus who votes against the legislation or decides to abstain is therefore perfectly entitled to do so.

    Cheers.

    Exactamundo. I predict there may be some who will do it. Maybe not all of those who have been identified.

  35. Doyley
    Briefly,

    As they say in the classics, it is what it is.

    “It is what it is.”

    Only until it was what it was… 🙂

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