Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After two successive stronger results for Labor, Essential Research is back on Team 53-47.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has recovered a point in the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which returns to 53-47 in favour of Labor after two weeks at 54-46. After accounting for an apparent transpositional error in the report, I believe the primary votes are Coalition 38% (up two), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (up one). The poll also finds that 56% approve of the new national security ministry, with 18% disapproving; 45% expect it will strengthen national security, 28% think it will make little difference and 8% think it will weaken it; and 45% registering concern that Peter Dutton will have control over all security services, with 35% not concerned. The report provides an incomplete account of questions on an emissions intensity scheme taxing pollution above a certain level (54% are in favour) and the National Broadband Network (48% of the 40% who have it say it beats their previous service, but only 19% say it is much better, and 51% say it’s about the same or worse). Full results should be with us later today.

In other news, if you’re a Crikey subscriber you’ll find that I’ve had a lot to say about the Greens recently, in a report on the succession to Scott Ludlam’s Western Australian seat that may be showing its age; an account of the deficiencies of Section 44 (see also Laurie Oakes); and a look askance at conservative suggestions that the party is, uh, “cooked”.

UPDATE: Full report here. We also have bonus Newspoll questions on Tony Abbott, which find 58% favouring Malcolm Turnbull on “best values and leadership credentials” against 23% for Abbott, and pose a question on his future in politics that unusually doesn’t feature an option for him to leave it.

NOTE ON NEW COMMENTS ARCHITECTURE: Regular visitors will shortly notice that the design of the comments section has been overhauled. This has mostly been done for site performance reasons, to which it has made an immediate and massive difference. As you can see, there are lots of new features that people have long asked for. If we can get used to reverse chronological comments, I think it will prove to be a great outcome. A tip for acclimatising yourself here: you do not need to refresh the page to see new comments, and you will cause yourself an annoyance if you try. You will see, at the top of the comments thread, a green “x new comments” button when new comments appear – all you need to do is press this and they will slot into view. Also, for emoji that work, see here.

One way or another though, this is how it will be for the next few days, after which the situation may be reviewed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Puffy

    Yes if you hail from Barcaldine it might be wise to pack your toothbrush. I am afraid i will get sent further into hell. My grandaddy was a mate of Billie Lane.

  2. Bemused,
    I don’t agree with some of DTT points but I will argue the points, not resort to the abuse routinely used here with the apparent acquiescence of the moderator.

    Typical. Not that I take what you have to say wrt dtt seriously as you always omit all the abuse she has dished out to us. Especially the fact that it was her that instigated it. Usually after we actually had taken the time to constructively critique her verbose posts.

    So, basically, it is you who are taking the disgraceful position. Not that I expected you to end your jihad against female posters here who regularly point out the mote in your own eye.

    Don’t worry, I understand, any port in a storm. 🙂

  3. The thing I find interesting about my family line is that in Britain there is no way the English, Scottish and Irish branches would ever have married. They all had to come here to meet and marry and interbreed. Also, they lived longer than their people back in their home countries, the Irish especially. They missed the famines.

    I also have NT Aboriginal relatives, half siblings. by my father’s remarriage, although I have never been able to meet them, sadly. That is a missed opportunity in my lifetime.

  4. Zeh

    @bemused, the threaded comments/reply feature has been disabled for the time being
    Thanks, I have only just returned.

  5. Confessions

    That comment was particularly loathsome and inappropriate, especially since it obviously applies also the Cat, puffy and roger.

    Not sure why I bothered to even drop by. Dogs and fleas and all that.

    What a rotten set of vicious twits many of you are.

    There are some really decent people but getting to be fewer and fewer.

  6. Bemused,
    But then I guess you would support someone who questions other contributor’s mental capacity, without even knowing them from Adam or Eve.

  7. C@tmomma

    Bemused,
    But then I guess you would support someone who questions other contributor’s mental capacity, without even knowing them from Adam or Eve.

    Yeah, I don’t question any more, I reached my conclusions long ago.

  8. DTT
    My family hail from Barcaldine and the area. A toothbrush would be a considered too threatening.

    Speaking of such, if I could find the bastard who poisoned The Tree I would string them up by the gonads and use ’em for stockwhip practice.

  9. Bemused,
    DTT is female and I am defending her from your gang.

    Frankly, I don’t think she needs your help, she’s doing well enough at proving how she gets down in the gutter again pdq, all by herself. You’re just acting as her cheer squad. Without reference, as I have said over and over again, to any of the loathsome things she has said to us. First!

  10. DTT:

    Whatever. I find it hard to take you seriously given you have no probs trash talking others. Self awareness much?

  11. Yeah, I don’t question any more, I reached my conclusions long ago.

    That comment says all we need to know about you, Bemused. Not that we didn’t know it already.

  12. Talk about wow!!

    <blockquotePeter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 30m30 minutes ago
    Honestly, given all the uninspiring aspects to #auspol these days, I don't really care anymore… Time to find other interests

  13. I honestly can’t emphasise enough how vehemently opposed I am to the idea of giving posters the ability to rate each other’s comments.

  14. Geez. You go away for a while, and the world turns upside down!

    Canavan – pot, kettle, black etc. It was bound to happen, and they have only just started ….

  15. “Things ain’t what they used to be and probably never was”

    Will Rogers, American actor, social commenter, humorist.

  16. Dr Kevin – I like your smoothed aggregate.

    “In polling terms, everything the government sends out comes back dead.” – there’s a reason for that. Everything they send out is reactionary fluff, designed, they hope, to improve the poll numbers, which, of course, it doesn’t. Exhibit A – super secure Home Affairs – well that worked well Malcolm …. perhaps not.

    “Hanson Is The Sensible Centre of The L-NP” – now THAT is depressing.

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