BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Labor records a second week of solid movement on the poll aggregate, although this doesn’t yet account for the Coalition’s relatively good result from ReachTEL.

BludgerTrack moves half a point and three seats in favour of Labor this week, which mostly reflects the fact that it’s been a while now since the Coalition had one of the relatively good data points that are discernible in late May and early June on the two-party trend chart below. This week’s movement may have been ameliorated if the ReachTEL result had been included, but it hasn’t been because I haven’t yet seen the primary vote numbers inclusive of the forced response for the undecided. In other words, the only new result is a strong one for Labor from Essential Research. On the seat projection, Labor is up one in Queensland and two in Western Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings.

Another new poll worth noting is the Political and Social Views Survey from JWS Research, based on an online survey of 1251 respondents earlier this month. Respondents were asked to identify where they placed parties, leaders and themselves on a zero-to-ten scale along two dimensions: left-right politically, and progressive-conservative socially. The average respondent identified as fairly solidly right of centre, with respective mean scores of 6.3 and 6.0. However, this may indicate a bias towards right-of-centre results across-the-board: even the Greens barely made it to the left on the left-right dimension, and all comers were in the conservative half of the conservative-progressive dimension. Respondents overall saw little distinction between the Coalition and One Nation, and regarded Tony Abbott as the most radical actor out of those on those offer. While the average respondent identified slightly closer to the Coalition on left-right, they landed much closer to Labor on conservative-progressive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. I agree with others that Shorten’s interview on Insiders this morning was very good.

    He’s doing an outstanding job of setting the agenda for the next election around inequality and has distilled this down to several easily digestible messages: the economy isn’t working for the majority of Australians; the working/middle class get a pay cut while the well off get a tax cut; two class tax system etc.

    He’s also done an outstanding job of having a strong and easily communicated rebuttal to claims of class warfare: it’s not class warfare to expect everyone to pay their fair share.

  2. I agree BK on the nbn question. We have ftp and pay a premium, but because we are opposite a school, our speeds plummet during the day when school is in session. We get no compensation for that either.

  3. BK
    My understanding is you can move down provision levels without penalty until you hit the point where they can actually provision you.

    You’re still sorta fucked if they can’t even manage 12 Mbps though because that’s the lowest tier they offer and you can’t decline service from NBN alltogether because they often take over providing phone service as well.

  4. Gee it’s sounding like the NBN isn’t worth bothering with. WA Labor have been complaining about its inadequacies, esp for regional and rural communities. But as with most things, it’s going to take a federal Labor govt to fix the mess Turnbull created.

  5. BK @ #147 Sunday, July 23rd, 2017 – 1:01 pm

    If there are two households being serviced on the same reseller agreement through the same NBN node and one, through distant proximity to the node, to gets terrible download/upload performance compared to on closely proximate is there a case for negotiating the price down or the plan up at no cost?

    I assume that if the retailer is nice, they’d let you downgrade to a cheaper plan that more accurately represents the capabilities of your link. As in, if you pay for 100/40 but only end up getting 20/5, a good retailer may let you switch to a 25/5 plan because your line can’t go faster than that anyways.

    And a bad one might just say “nope, you’re locked in to 24 months of 100/40, so pay the early termination fee or deal with it, because the quality of your copper loop is none of our business”. Which is a position they’d probably lose on if the matter went to court. But that doesn’t mean they won’t try it anyways.

    If they ordered 10 tonnes of sand to be delivered for $400 and one only received 5 tonnes surely there would be a case to answer and easy recourse.
    What’s the difference?

    I think the difference is that in this case your deal is with the RSP, and their role is only to provision an AVC from NBNCo that matches the bandwidth parameters you ask for. It’s then NBNCo’s job to actually deliver that bandwidth to your premises. If they don’t or can’t, there’s literally nothing the retailer can do about it, because they don’t own and connot remediate the deficient infrastructure. NBNCo does.

    So you ask for 15 tons of sand. The retailer in the middle passes on your order for 15 tons of sand to the sand mine. The sand mine only sends you 5 tons of sand. The retailer did what you asked; it’s the sand mine that screwed up.

    The sand mine has a very clear case to answer to the retailer (retailer paid for the delivery of 15 tons of sand, but only got 5). The retailer has a less clear case to answer with the consumer (the retailer did everything in their power to get the customer their 15 tons of sand; but they don’t control the sand mine and can’t force it to deliver the correct amount).

  6. AR

    The retailers have a case to answer. See ACCC case against retailers false claims on ability to deliver. If however you are told up front what they can deliver then retailers have no case to answer

  7. a r @ #156 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    BK @ #147 Sunday, July 23rd, 2017 – 1:01 pm

    If there are two households being serviced on the same reseller agreement through the same NBN node and one, through distant proximity to the node, to gets terrible download/upload performance compared to on closely proximate is there a case for negotiating the price down or the plan up at no cost?

    I assume that if the retailer is nice, they’d let you downgrade to a cheaper plan that more accurately represents the capabilities of your link. As in, if you pay for 100/40 but only end up getting 20/5, a good retailer may let you switch to a 25/5 plan because your line can’t go faster than that anyways.

    Nope.

    Let’s say your 100/40 line operates at 50% of its theoretical capacity for simplicity, so your 100/40 link actually operates at 50/20.

    You then decide to switch to a 50/20 connection because that is the real world capacity of your link. What will happen is that your actual performance would then be reduced to 25/10 because your link would be operating at 50% its theoretical capacity (being 50/20).

  8. Bill Shorten‏Verified account @billshortenmp · 2h2 hours ago

    The postal plebiscite is a policy for a government that has neither the intellect to know what to do, nor the courage to do what is right.

  9. confessions @ #155 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 1:30 pm

    Gee it’s sounding like the NBN isn’t worth bothering with. WA Labor have been complaining about its inadequacies, esp for regional and rural communities. But as with most things, it’s going to take a federal Labor govt to fix the mess Turnbull created.

    At least the debacle which is MTM (FTTN, HFC, wireless and Skymuster) is now getting mainstream traction. This issue should get red hot by the time of the next election as the lived experience of a significant portion of voters with the NBN differs from coalition rhetoric.

  10. I am not a Greens voter and definitely not a supporter of Di Natale’s leadership style.
    If Labor came out more strongly in environmental matters, I’m sure they could take votes from the ineffective Greens.

  11. Lizzie

    Yes. Bob Brown and Christine Milne were more effective. I think McKim would be effective. He proved that in Tasmania. Got to be a minister.

  12. What I liked about Shorten’s appearance on Insiders was that he was confidently not coming from a position of weakness, unlike the bellicose verbiage of the Cons with their props.

  13. Itza@#87:
    Rhw – Are they ropeable enough to get the Medical Board / Council together and issue a public health statement of dissent and take the spivs on?.
    Yes, they are/have, however the money dynamic in Brisbane medicine (thanks Newman) is such that I suspect that they will be told to shut up an resign – which some of them may do. Ethics and morals come a poor second to profit in the Catholic hierarchy.

  14. Shorten’s interview was OK until Cassidy asked about where the growth was coming from. Shorten’s reply of “from increased confidence” was weak.

    Here are some points he could have made:
    – economic stimulus from having more money in the hands of the poor and middle class (or “working Australians” is probably more media savvy)
    – more money to invest in infrastructure
    – innovation from a greater focus on education and science
    – massive jobs and growth opportunities in the transition to 21st century energy infrastructure and the resulting cheaper power

    The political problem with framing the debate around fairness alone, is that it leads to the trap of being branded with the “populist” tag; a tag created by conservatives to imply that tackling inequality is all about feel-good politics and ignores practical economics.
    The reality is that tackling inequality has major economic benefits, in that it frees up money locked up in unproductive financial instruments, land and mega yachts in the Caymans.
    Shorten needs to talk about fairness and economics.

  15. Fixed terms are a mistake. Flexibility is actually important at times, and giving away flexibility in the interests of whatever benefits are supposed to accrue from fixed terms isn’t worth it in my opinion.

    I think a lot of the ‘appeal’ of fixed terms is related to (a) people hating elections and not wanting them any sooner than they have to, and (b) some nonsense that it isn’t “fair” to allow the executive to choose the timing of the elections. Perhaps moving to 4 year terms might alleviate (a) to some extent – I can take or leave 4 year terms over 3. But the ‘fairness’ aspect is just silly – there is no parity between the party in power and the parties in opposition. Governments destroy their electoral support over time – they can mitigate to varying degrees by being a good government, but there is an inherent and increasing electoral disadvantage in being in government which automatically throws out this notion that the government and the opposition can or should be on an even footing. Sure there are advantages in terms of power and access to funding, but the point remains that the various parties are necessarily structurally in differing roles going into elections, and there is next to no point in thinking that fixing the election date will balance this out in any meaningful way.

    And, again, any benefits seem incredibly marginal compared with giving up the ability of parliament and government to respond flexibly to the circumstances of the day and how they might change.

    Two recent examples:
    * the last NSW ALP government was mortally wounded for the last 3 of its 4 year term, and it would have been very much in the interests of both the ALP and the state for there to have been an early election to put them out of their misery, prevent some of the Obeid/Macdonald nonsense and limit the electoral backlash against the ALP so that they could have been a much better opposition and been in a better position to come back sooner. I genuinely thought that at the time it would have been worth the Keneally government voting no confidence in itself just to get it to an election – the ALP being the ALP they probably wouldn’t have taken the opportunity to give up power in the short term for a better medium term outcome for themselves and everyone else, but still the fixed term strictures prevented there even being the option for them to do the ‘right thing’.

    * The Baillieu/Napthine minority government being held hostage by Geoff Shaw. Shaw would have been in a much weaker position had the government been able to go to an election if his demands were too unreasonable, or the functioning of parliament became unworkable, as it certainly seemed to at various times when Shaw sided with the ALP in causing chaos with the Speaker. But an election to resolve the minority/Shaw situation was simply not an option, and that inflexibility seems like a big problem and the benefits of fixed terms just seem trivial in comparison.

  16. He’s also done an outstanding job of having a strong and easily communicated rebuttal to claims of class warfare: it’s not class warfare to expect everyone to pay their fair share.

    Heh,heh, heh………..robust ducks all lined up in a row…..

    On NBN. Just got all sorted at my place.
    Had < 3Mbps ADSL before FTTN went live in June.
    Tech probs meant about 2 weeks downtime in the switch over and then billing hassles as the RSP fwarked up badly on process. All sorted now.

    Am 840m from the node in a suburb with old copper. So, signed up initially for the slowest 12/1 plan. Tested and could max that out on downloads for speed. So got the RSP to temporarily, with no cost to downgrade later, bump me to a 25/5 Unlimited Data plan so i could test actual real world delivery on my specific line.
    I can hit 25Mbps so am keeping it at that and am paying an extra $10/mth over what i was on for ADSL or 12/1 NBN. Reliability wise connection has been rock solid even when it rains (a big improvement on my old ADSL connection) and i dont seem to have been hit with any serious time of day / congestion issues as yet.

    Have decided that there is NO benefit in my current situation in either going for a faster plan (extra $) or upgrading the line from my house to the pit.
    Interestingly, up the road is an NBN micro-node. The houses up that way were in the pre NBN days connected to a different, close exchange than me. Dont think they are live on NBN as yet as there have been reported probs with the micro-nodes getting switched on.
    Anyway, from what i have researched i will NEVER get any better than 30-34Mbps if i was real lucky on FTTN, regardless of the "up to XXXMbps" plan i chose to pay for.
    So will be staying on what i have until they upgrade the infrastructure here and i'm not going to hold my breath on when that will happen.

    FTTN deployment means effectively permanent 3nd / 4th class infrastructure provision to myself, while other taxpayers are getting 1st class FTTP, or 2nd class FTTdP.
    Its obviously unfair and a part of the fwark up that is the Liberal MTM policy.

  17. Rhw
    Ethics and morals come a poor second to profit in the Catholic hierarchy

    U betcha. A hospital board no doubt stacked with Catholic bankers who go, and are seen to go, to Mass on Sunday in the hope they might be spared an eternity in Hell. Oh, I know their kind.

  18. If McKim wins his seat at the next half-Senate I’d say he’d be in a reasonable position to seek leadership if he so desired (I haven’t checked Tas polling recently but I image that’s a near certainty), he’s kept a relatively low profile so far though, after getting a pretty decent set of issues as his “portfolio”. Wants to let some water pass on losing his state seat in Tasmania first maybe ?

    On four year terms:
    I thought (and still think) it’s an awful idea in Queensland where a unicameral Single Member Electoral system tends to lead to whoever’s in power doing whatever the fuck they want until they have to face the music. Bligh and Newman both failed impressively due to this and the 3 year terms at least ameliorated some of the damage Newman could have done. But we decided to have 4 year terms because we’re a state of morons with a long history of loving overly authoritarian leaders.

    In case where there’s actually capability for reasonable checks and balances on the Government, I’m not adverse to four year terms.

  19. Shorten’s reply of “from increased confidence” was weak.

    Hmmmmm..maybe not so much. Remember, a lot of the success of the ALP’s response to the GFC was based on them actually following through on the policy measures they put in place and THAT kept confidence up during a pretty shaky period.

    Its a statement from Shorten that should probably be seen in the context of stuff they have announced already on tax / finance, as well as what seems to be planned for announcement in the next week or so.

  20. Elaugaufein,
    McKim only got in by the skin of his teeth last time. As a Tas government minister he was a waste of time, money and space.

  21. confessions @ #163 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 1:57 pm

    Grimace:
    It would be great for the NBN to get more mainstream traction in the electorate.

    I think it will because the FTTP vs MTM debate is no longer a technical discussion that most don’t have the time for, even fewer understand or are able to participate in.

    Lived experience has demonstrated that MTM is a gross waste of money and is vastly technically inferior to fibre, and worse, in many cases provides a service that is inferior to the one it is replacing.

    If the election is towards the middle of 2019 or later things will really get nasty for the L/NP as it becomes mainstream knowledge that the NBN has placed a small but significant portion of premises in the “too hard” basket, in order that they can claim the rollout of MTM is going much more quickly than FTTP would have, and to artificially lower the cost per premises to connect. On this, Labor needs to smash the social media “airwaves” that any job is quicker, easier and cheaper if you leave out the hardest 10% of the job.

  22. Imacca
    I believe that FTTN can theoretically hit 100 Mbps but thats it’s technically limit. You’d basically need to live right on top of the node to do that though. At almost 1 km away, I might test out 50 Mbps and see if you can get a decent fraction of it, your estimate of 30-40 Mbps seems reasonable.

    The FTTdp / FTTB / FTTC all cap at at 100 Mbps too because of the copper intermediataries but you should get that fairly reliably, as long as your “local copper” is good and some of the wacky stuff they want to do with copper might let you raise that by fairly trivial multipliers (like x2).

    FTTP also caps at 100 Mbps because that’s all that’s offered on backend at NBN, it’s technically capable of 1 Gbps or more without any user side changes but of course you should have no problems whatsoever with congestions etc on your side , if you are your ISP is probably skimping on what they are paying for , so hopefully you’re seeing savings on that side.

  23. Barry
    2nd Green on a DD ticket pretty much always only gets in by skin of teeth, Lambie certainly didn’t help there (just like NXT seriously took wind out of the sales in SA and SHY didn’t even pull a Quota). But since a Green got in in 1st 6 at a DD, they should get one at both half Senate elections if votes hold up.

    As I’m not a Tasmanian I have no ability to comment on McKim’s time as Minister.

  24. Grimace
    Yes indeed ‘The proof of the pudding is in the eating’. The meeja and the Truffles and before that the Abbott boosters could sell all the glossily wrapped crap they liked and make any old claim. Well large numbers of people are now getting to unwrap the shit sandwich that they were sold by Mal and Tones and have a bite of it.

    The LNP must cringe when the NBN shouts about how many homes are connected or soon will be. More angry voters added to the list.

  25. Grimace
    Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 1:16 pm
    I agree with others that Shorten’s interview on Insiders this morning was very good.

    He was very good…more relaxed than I’ve seen and more fluent too. He certainly presents as a viable alternative PM with a coherent set of ideas.

    On the relevance of “confidence”, I think there are hard economic measures that will make a difference…making investments, shifting income into the lower deciles, shifting the tax load.

    But at another level, confidence really is an issue. I think lack of confidence applies not merely in economic terms but to institutions more generally. There is a sense – quite a pervasive sense – in which people have lost their belief that everything will be all right in the end. This is not a trivial thing. It is expressed in grievance politics, in pop-left and pop-right romanticism, in the depth of partisan hostilities, in the rise of cult-media….and in many other ways.

    When people declare themselves as being frustrated by politics-as-usual, I think it is because they have lost confidence in the efficacy of the order. Why should this be so? In many small ways, the order functions perfectly well. But in relation to the meta-issues, the order seems either irrelevant, impotent or paralysed. This is a malaise that should be remedied by good government, but this itself seems to have eluded us. So I think that “loss of confidence” is a very important point of reference. I think it accounts for a kind of vengeful nostalgia – for the politics of grievance & jealousy, for greed & bitterness, for insult & escape.

    Shorten has touched on this. He’s is exactly on the mark. Truculence and loss of confidence are twins.

  26. Here is a very sobering analysis of how we are really progressing on reducing our dependence on fossil fuels …

    http://www.nationalobserver.com/2017/07/13/analysis/these-missing-charts-may-change-way-you-think-about-fossil-fuel-addiction

    The conclusion? Essentially, that we’re not yet making much progress at all. Our overall use of fossil fuels is still rising, and the growth of renewable energy sources is quite slow compared to the growth of both oil and gas.

    Yes, coal use is reported to be down – but it is not renewables taking up the slack. Instead it is oil and gas, and by a wide margin. Normally, I’d say the increase in gas use was a good thing, because on first reading it looks like gas is seriously displacing coal, for an overall greenhouse gas reduction benefit … but the article then goes on to explain why the apparent decline in coal burning may simply be wrong. If so, the increased gas use is simply meeting new demand, not replacing old demand that was previously being met by coal.

    For one thing, coal use is likely still being seriously under-reported by both China and India – both countries have recent form of doing exactly that. For another, there are still massive investments in new coal plants underway worldwide. We all hear how China has scrapped plans for over 100 coal plants … but how often do you hear that they are still planning to build another 700 coal plants? The situation is similar for India – the closures and abandoning of coal projects gets wide coverage, but the building of new coal plants – which is still going on – does not. This may help explain why when you listen to media reports, the Adani coal mine makes absolutely no sense … but when you follow where money is actually being invested, perhaps it still does.

    Not trying to make any particular point here – I just thought this was an interesting analysis (in a depressing kind of way). And it is very current – it is based on data released within the last month.

    The really sobering part is that if present trends continue, we could hit 450 PPM C02 in less than 10 years – this is a long way short of the 20 – 25 years being predicted as recently as last year. This indicates that the pace of climate change is rapid and still accelerating. 450PPM is a fairly arbitrary line, but it is one of the lines the Paris Agreement was specifically designed to avoid crossing.

  27. Labor needs to campaign hard on a genuine FTTP NBN plan next election.
    This time, to keep the jackals at newscorpse at bay (and because it’s the right thing to do), labor need to develop and release a detailed business plan.
    There are so many economic benefits from a proper, FTTP NBN that it should be a no brainer.

  28. Imacca & Elaugaufein you may find this useful:

    NBN MTM Alpha: Unofficial Tech/Speed Estimates
    Read Disclaimer First: This is an unofficial best estimate on both NBN technology and estimated speeds to act only as a guide and overview of the network/tech only. There is no affiliation with NBNCo, and is only an enthusiast site trying to bring visibility to what’s being deployed. Your actual tech/speeds will vary. Click on a premise dot (zoom in) to get more detail per premise. Not all FTTN premises have estimated speed (yellow). This is a work in progress and technology on the map will change.

    Always visit the official NBN website at nbnco.com.au for their latest information per address including build/rfs timeframes. Feel free to request NBNCo to provide this information officially

    Status: 18/07: Updating to latest available info. Eastern Perth suburbs updates. ~7400 pillars in total (+400). FTTN with new speed range. Known issues: Satellite in fixed line (ongoing), Ballarat routes, Wireless over small fixed line area (manual fix needed), bug identified in FTTN routes (fix in progress). Also recommend new Optus SQ Tool that gives FTTN speed estimates

    http://nbnmtm.australiaeast.cloudapp.azure.com/

  29. Henry
    They can’t. Its simply not possible to make a business case for FTTP given FTTN is mostly rolled out by the next election. Unless the rollout is stupendously incompetent, it’s only those who can afford to pay for their own fibre extension who are likely to be particularly hampered by the 25-50 Mbps you’ll get from FTTN.

    Its about 2030 when the shit will really hit the fan, when 1 Gbps is common in the first world and most of Australia is stuck at < 50 Mbps and it'll probably take a decade and a fortune to fix the stupid thing. More if NBN Co is privatised by that time.

    Even FTTC is pushing it, but it seems like NBN Co has done such a shit job of delivering FTTN in some areas that they can make the case.

  30. poroti @ #176 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Grimace
    Yes indeed ‘The proof of the pudding is in the eating’. The meeja and the Truffles and before that the Abbott boosters could sell all the glossily wrapped crap they liked and make any old claim. Well large numbers of people are now getting to unwrap the shit sandwich that they were sold by Mal and Tones and have a bite of it.
    The LNP must cringe when the NBN shouts about how many homes are connected or soon will be. More angry voters added to the list.

    My in-laws live in Manjimup and the node is probably 20 meters from their front door, so in theory, they can get very close to 100%. When I was last down there I speed tested their connection (25/5) at various times of the day. The best I got was between 23mbps and 24mbps down, and the worst I got was two, which was most likely due to congestion. The download was pretty consistent at just under five. Their NBN connection was a debacle which took 3 months to fully resolve.

    They are rusted on Liberals and they raised hell with everyone that would listen about it.

    My sister in law and her husband are on Skymuster and were staying with them in a couple of months and I’ll be able to report back the speeds I achieve at their place.

  31. I think it will because the FTTP vs MTM debate is no longer a technical discussion that most don’t have the time for, even fewer understand or are able to participate in.
    Lived experience has demonstrated that MTM is a gross waste of money and is vastly technically inferior to fibre, and worse, in many cases provides a service that is inferior to the one it is replacing.
    If the election is towards the middle of 2019 or later things will really get nasty for the L/NP as it becomes mainstream knowledge that the NBN has placed a small but significant portion of premises in the “too hard” basket, in order that they can claim the rollout of MTM is going much more quickly than FTTP would have, and to artificially lower the cost per premises to connect. On this, Labor needs to smash the social media “airwaves” that any job is quicker, easier and cheaper if you leave out the hardest 10% of the job.

    I do not have confirmation, but I think we are caught in just this situation. Small pocket that has not gone live for NBN while the rest of the town has. NBN Co saying nothing. Even the Federal member’s office (ALP) unable to get any real information. As we should have gone live in Jan they have until the middle of next year to do something. Lots of complaints about NBN on local facebook sites, but I wonder at the level of understanding as to why the service is so poor and who’s fault it is.

  32. Good afternoon all,

    Re fixed terms. How do the states with four year terms currently deal with their upper houses ? Would the same process not work for the federal parliament ?

    Otherwise, if it is good enough for the HOR why not have full senate elections every four years as well ? I understand re quotas etc and the possibilities that may arise but it seems atm that a number of senators, across the political divide, sit and hibernate knowing they have six years to navel gaze. A full senate update every four years may shake a few out of their slumber perhaps.

    Anyway, as a purely enthusiastic amateur I support four year terms and I am sure there are enough intelligent people both inside and outside Parliament to work through senate problems arising from fixed terms.

    Cheers.

  33. ‘fess / Poroti

    [It would be great for the NBN to get more mainstream traction in the electorate.]

    It’s greatly to the Government’s advantage that both the delays to be connected and then the post-installation speed problems and connection failures only get occasional coverage by the non-specialist media.

    Not enough really ‘steamed up’ people yet I guess but sooner or later the delivery of the service, and the fact that a huge amount of money has been spent to deliver a 3rd class service that will require even more money to upgrade it in the relative short term future.

    Turnbull will wear, as he deserves, the responsibility for the largely failed NBN.

    Just another example of Turnbull being expedient (Fu#k the national interest) to keep himself as PM for even one more day.

    He must be hoping that installations continue to be s-l-o-w and that he can keep riding the horse to the next election.

  34. @ Laughtong

    Who is actually at fault is a complicated issue and saying “it’s a bit of everything” won’t work for the L/NP. Because of their lies about being able to do it faster, cheaper and just as good as Labors plan, they now own every cock up.

    The media loves winner vs looser stories too, so pretty soon there will be comparisons of those with FTTP and everyone else; and stories like my electorate (Pearce) where there is a hodgepodge of FTTP, FTTN, HFC and wireless.

    Further, there are streets like mine where some (like me) are getting FTTP and the rest are getting HFC. When the inevitable comparisons hit the paper the voters won’t be pleased.

  35. toorak toff @ #101 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 11:11 am

    After the redistribution, SA will have the most populous federal seats in the nation and all parties will be affected. There will be a lot of heartache but probably little change in the Lib/ALP balance.
    A very small increase in the state’s population would have maintained the status quo. If only we’d had more blackouts!

    Unfortunately your solution would take about 19 years to trickle through. 🙂

  36. New polling reveals Labor Leader Rebecca White preferred Tasmanian premier over Will Hodgman.

    Ms White, who replaced the unpopular Bryan Green as leader in March, has a slender lead over Premier Hodgman in a ReachTEL poll commissioned by the Sunday Tasmanian.

    The 34-year-old former health spokeswoman was the preferred premier for 50.6 per cent of respondents in a poll of 2817 Tasmanians taken on Friday night.

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/politics/new-polling-reveals-labor-leader-rebecca-white-preferred-tasmanian-premier-over-will-hodgman/news-story/adadd43f1c58f9f22094b97397bda4e6

  37. imacca @ #123 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 12:10 pm


    SSM was disallowed at law by a vote of parliament. Its entirely appropriate and consistent that the question of whether or not to change the law to allow SSM should be dealt with in the same forum.

    Actual, no, it wasn’t.

    The HC in its ruling against the ACT legislation made it clear that Howard amending the legislation to define marriage basically had no impact on their decision, to the HC the intent of the Act before the amendments was that marriage was between a man and a woman.

    The true value of Howard defining marriage and the HC decision was that the HC by not overturning the legislation showed that Parliament has the power to define marriage.

    So ME would finally become legal in Australia by the simple mechanism of amending the definition in the Act.

  38. Part of the deliberate structure of parliament and government is to act to slow down the exercise of power, and the arrangement whereby Senate terms are twice House terms is directly part of that. The Senate has inertia – you can’t (in the normal course of events) change it overnight with a change of government, and (again, barring DD conditions) a single landslide election is not generally enough to completely change the way the Senate is made up.

    I think that’s a good thing. If some populist comes along and wins big at one election they are still unlikely to control the Senate. If the populist can win big at two consecutive elections then they will gain control of the Senate and do what they please, but that’s fair enough. If they can sustain their popularity then ultimately they get all the power, but a single election is not (and IMO should not) be enough to do this.

    I wouldn’t mind 4 year Federal terms – but not fixed! Just extend the current maximum limit from 3 years to 4. So the Senate terms go to 8 years – as others have said, the DD mechanism still exists to resolve deadlocks that arise.

    If you want stability and longer term thinking from government (which is what everyone says they want from 4 year terms) I’m not sure why 8 year Senate terms would be a problem except that the public hate politicians and it’s easy to appeal to that sentiment when talking about 8 year cushy taxpayer funded jobs…

  39. Grimace

    Thanks for those “lived experiences” of the NBN .Stories like that will become legion. Truffles will live up to my prediction that he will be Australia’s most expensive politician.

  40. grimace @ #158 Sunday, July 23rd, 2017 – 1:40 pm

    Let’s say your 100/40 line operates at 50% of its theoretical capacity for simplicity, so your 100/40 link actually operates at 50/20.

    You then decide to switch to a 50/20 connection because that is the real world capacity of your link. What will happen is that your actual performance would then be reduced to 25/10 because your link would be operating at 50% its theoretical capacity (being 50/20).

    What’s the technical basis for that? What would cause a copper loop to operate at <50% of whatever its configured sync speed happens to be>, as opposed to <up to 100% of the maximum sync speed that the loop is physically able to support>?

    Isn’t that interpretation basically saying that if the maximum speed a FTTN user can attain when running a 100/40 plan is, say, 30 Mbps, then on a 12/1 plan that same user will only get ~4 Mbps? People should be screaming bloody murder, if that’s how it works.

  41. Its not rocket science.
    Shorten has come to the same conclusion as Sanders & Corbyn, because much the same dissatisfaction exists in Australia for much the same reasons as in the US & (lesser?) Britain.
    There should be no problem with espousing the same arguments & remedies as they do.

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