BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

Labor records a second week of solid movement on the poll aggregate, although this doesn’t yet account for the Coalition’s relatively good result from ReachTEL.

BludgerTrack moves half a point and three seats in favour of Labor this week, which mostly reflects the fact that it’s been a while now since the Coalition had one of the relatively good data points that are discernible in late May and early June on the two-party trend chart below. This week’s movement may have been ameliorated if the ReachTEL result had been included, but it hasn’t been because I haven’t yet seen the primary vote numbers inclusive of the forced response for the undecided. In other words, the only new result is a strong one for Labor from Essential Research. On the seat projection, Labor is up one in Queensland and two in Western Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings.

Another new poll worth noting is the Political and Social Views Survey from JWS Research, based on an online survey of 1251 respondents earlier this month. Respondents were asked to identify where they placed parties, leaders and themselves on a zero-to-ten scale along two dimensions: left-right politically, and progressive-conservative socially. The average respondent identified as fairly solidly right of centre, with respective mean scores of 6.3 and 6.0. However, this may indicate a bias towards right-of-centre results across-the-board: even the Greens barely made it to the left on the left-right dimension, and all comers were in the conservative half of the conservative-progressive dimension. Respondents overall saw little distinction between the Coalition and One Nation, and regarded Tony Abbott as the most radical actor out of those on those offer. While the average respondent identified slightly closer to the Coalition on left-right, they landed much closer to Labor on conservative-progressive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    I think what this poll shows is that Labor has to tack Centre Right when necessary, say on National Security and Anti Terrorism measures, to the centre on Health and Education, and to the Left on issues such as Same Sex Marriage. Although I wouldn’t actually put SSM into a Left/Right paradigm any more, so broad-based is it’s support.

    I don’t know where I would place IR either. A bit all over the place? I do know that retaining Penalty Rates at the level they were is popular, and with the Employment market going well at the moment an argument can be made wrt the fact that retaining them won’t have a deleterious effect on the Economy.

    As far as the Economy itself goes, I think the common perception is that it needs re-balancing away from tax breaks for the wealthy and towards a bit more fairness and equality.

    I think Labor are well-placed to offer the best set of policies to get the balance right.

  2. Looking at the measures for SA (59.1/40.9 and 8/2), and the necessity for a redistribution in which one seat will be lost, and considering that NXT hold a seat, it must be possible that the Liberals will be reduced to a lone Pyne at the next election.

  3. If Labor gain 4 seats in WA….Pearce, Swan, Hasluck would be on the list along with one of Stirling, Canning, Forrest or Durack…..

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Trump has gone even more troppo!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-says-he-has-complete-power-to-pardon-as-russian-investigation-intensifies-20170722-gxgqtb.html
    In a long discussion Paul McGeough tells us how Justine Damond’s killing could change police culture in the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/will-justine-damonds-killing-change-police-culture-in-the-us-20170720-gxflsa.html
    Lenore Taylor says that the inadequacy of unemployment benefits has been accepted pretty much across the board, but Tudge is now trying to define the problem away.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/22/alan-tudge-waves-his-wand-and-turns-welfare-debate-upside-down
    Michael Short laments the mess our politics have gotten into.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-can-no-longer-tell-our-left-from-our-right-20170720-gxf00g.html
    The UK Brexit negotiations are powered by little more than hope.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/22/uk-brexit-negotiators-powered-by-hope-little-else
    Ross Gittins with a positive outlook on jobs with differing cognitive structure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/human-factor-keeping-jobs-growth-alive-and-well-20170721-gxfthl.html
    Labor is preparing to put a compromise technology known as fibre-to-the-kerb at the centre of its plans for the National Broadband Network should it win the next election. Labor communications spokeswoman Michelle Rowland said the opposition still favours its original fibre-to-the-premise technology, but accepted its options are limited given the network will be almost finished by the next election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/realities-on-the-ground-labor-to-embrace-compromise-fibre-option-for-nbn-rollout-20170721-gxg3zm.html
    Paul Malone writes that the decision to create a super security department and the suggestion that Australia should have its own space agency must be generating whoops of joy in the bureaucracy-generation business.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/space-agency-super-security-department-mean-more-time-wasted-in-meetings-20170720-gxeyq8.html
    Prominent conservatives within the Coalition are split over whether to hold a postal vote plebiscite on same-sex marriage to stymie a push by Liberal moderates for a conscience vote on the issue. What a useless waste of money THAT would be!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-conservatives-split-over-postalvote-plebiscite-20170720-gxfmzu.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    In a piece of bureaucratic prose that would do the writers of ABC’s television’s public service mockumentary Utopia proud, Australia’s foreign affairs department has told a recently departed officer she is unable to learn of the outcome of a harassment complaint she lodged due to “privacy reasons”.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/a-utopia-moment-in-foreign-affairs-when-life-imitates-art-20170722-gxgj0w.html
    Praise through gritted teeth from Abbott?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-praises-malcolm-turnbull-for-backing-party-reform-20170722-gxgiry.html
    Imre Salusinszky has a humorous look at various Premier’s Challenges.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-praises-malcolm-turnbull-for-backing-party-reform-20170722-gxgiry.html
    Could cricket collapse if the Ashes, and the summer, is scuttled?
    http://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/could-cricket-collapse-if-the-ashes-and-the-summer-is-scuttled-20170722-gxgj95.html
    Russia’s ambassador to Washington was overheard by US spy agencies telling his bosses that he had discussed campaign-related matters, including issues important to Moscow, with Jeff Sessions during the 2016 presidential race. Tick tick . . . .
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/russian-ambassador-sergei-kislyak-discussed-us-campaign-with-jeff-sessions-20170722-gxgjwj.html
    There is a growing gap between the infrastructure investment that our inner and middle ring in Melbourne is receiving, and that which is being directed to the growth areas. Peak-hour commuters coming in and out of the overcrowded CBD train lines feel this every day. But the infrastructure backlog gets worse in the areas that need this investment most.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-the-victorian-governments-spare-500-million-should-be-spent-20170721-gxfv1n.html
    Jess Irvine has a quirky look at the citizenship rules for MPs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/i-would-like-to-announce-my-candidacy-for-us-president-in-2032-20170721-gxga3f.html
    Karen Hardy on the phenomenon of workplace relationships.
    http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/canberra-life/why-you-shouldnt-sleep-with-a-work-colleague-20170718-gxder8.html

  6. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Reg Lynch and citizenship qualifications.

    Matt Golding with His Spudship.

    Mark David at the NSW Liberal Party convention.

    Paul Zanetti and the politics of birder protection.

    Sean Spicer finally lets go.

    Matt Golding also marks Spicer’s departure.

    As does Alan Moir.

    Andrew Dyson with the new rage of fidget spinners.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Ron Tandberg sees through the elevation of His Spudship.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Mark Knight cruels the Greens again.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/17be7c1c4517335be6ed7fe32d80de26?width=1024

  7. Morning all.

    Latika M Bourke
    1 hr ·
    This AAP capture of Malcolm Turnbull and his predecessor (and hopeful successor) Tony Abbott is a classic. Reminds me of that interview with Mark Riley: https://youtu.be/rJ9y1c73-IM

    Ah yes, that classic interview!

  8. Japan’s approach to stewardship of its land and water resources is distinct from that of the U.S. As an island nation with a millennia-long history, the concepts of reuse, repurposing and multiple use are intrinsic to Japanese culture. In 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and subsequent Fukushima nuclear disaster caused Japan to reassess its dependence on nuclear power as a primary source of electricity generation. Building renewable-energy capacity, predominantly in the form of photovoltaic projects, is one answer in the nation’s quest for alternatives.

    These images, from a series of flights over the Tokyo and Kobe/Osaka regions of Japan, show a range of photovoltaic projects on former golf courses, quarries, dams, man-made islands and floating projects on ponds and reservoirs.

    (This one is particularly interesting: A 5Mw solar farm sits off the angled base of the Kotani Dam in Hyugo Prefecture.)

    https://about.bnef.com/blog/japans-renewable-energy-revolution/

  9. :large

    I think this is the pic Latika is referring to. Others have captioned it: “Just let me give him one punch.”

  10. Ides:

    This dual citizenship thing is getting out of control. Born in India, a citizen of Australia, but possibly a citizen of the UK? Just ridiculous.

  11. BK

    Empirical Evidence? I think we need British Empire evidence!

    It is ironic that sovereignty could trip up our sovereign citizen?

    I could go on for a while…..

  12. C@Tmomma

    I think what this poll shows is that Labor has to tack Centre Right when necessary, say on National Security and Anti Terrorism measures

    You mean support a police state?

  13. Not sure if this has come up yet. But it appears that PHON Senator Malcolm Roberts may be a British citizen and dual national (not an Indian citizen)

    You mean he’s multicultural? 😉

  14. You mean support a police state?

    Trog, maybe hit ‘Pause’ in your brain before you type things that suggest you are bringing the stupid in a BIG way. 🙂

  15. Hundreds of climate scientists, including many from the United States, have applied to work in France under a €60-million (US$69-million) scheme set up by the country’s president, Emmanuel Macron, after his US counterpart Donald Trump rejected the Paris accord on global warming. And Germany has announced that it will set up a similar programme to lure researchers.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-01713-4

  16. C@tmomma
    Dutton’s prescription for combining all policing agencies into a single entity with him at the top is a clear step towards a police state. It removes accountability.
    Do you think Labor should agree to this?
    It’s a simple proposition, nothing stupid about it.

  17. C@tmomma
    You treat policy like some sort of smorgasbord of options to be selected purely on the basis of their contribution to the electability of your party.

  18. Some of Trump’s anger tweeting simply has to be seen to be believed. He truly is unhinged.

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 11h11 hours ago
    While all agree the U. S. President has the complete power to pardon, why think of that when only crime so far is LEAKS against us.FAKE NEWS

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 11h11 hours ago
    So many people are asking why isn’t the A.G. or Special Council looking at the many Hillary Clinton or Comey crimes. 33,000 e-mails deleted?

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 11h11 hours ago
    …What about all of the Clinton ties to Russia, including Podesta Company, Uranium deal, Russian Reset, big dollar speeches etc.

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 11h11 hours ago
    My son Donald openly gave his e-mails to the media & authorities whereas Crooked Hillary Clinton deleted (& acid washed) her 33,000 e-mails!

  19. Hello all,
    Cold up here in Brisbane. Being a Queenslander I’m only really comfortable when the temperature is 30 degrees, even that is mild.

    My take on the polls is that Malcolm Turnbull and his party have pragmatically responded with policies to suit any group/interest in Australia, be the policy for the Left, Centre, Right, Conservative or Greens – it matters not. Each policy is designed to appease and gather support by gaining pockets of votes from all over the place, adding it all up to a successful Newspoll.
    I think it is the most innovative approach to governing in a very very long time.
    It seems a logical way of approaching the diverse community that Australia now is?
    So I think we all wait to see if it is successful.

    Just possibly the days of a government being considered conservative, working class, centre, or left of centre, Greenish, etc, etc – is all old hat.

  20. lizzie @ #8 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 8:08 am

    Japan’s approach to stewardship of its land and water resources is distinct from that of the U.S. As an island nation with a millennia-long history, the concepts of reuse, repurposing and multiple use are intrinsic to Japanese culture. In 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and subsequent Fukushima nuclear disaster caused Japan to reassess its dependence on nuclear power as a primary source of electricity generation. Building renewable-energy capacity, predominantly in the form of photovoltaic projects, is one answer in the nation’s quest for alternatives.
    These images, from a series of flights over the Tokyo and Kobe/Osaka regions of Japan, show a range of photovoltaic projects on former golf courses, quarries, dams, man-made islands and floating projects on ponds and reservoirs.

    (This one is particularly interesting: A 5Mw solar farm sits off the angled base of the Kotani Dam in Hyugo Prefecture.)
    https://about.bnef.com/blog/japans-renewable-energy-revolution/

    Thanks Lizzie,

    I have always thought the floating option on dams is a great option for Australia as it has the added benefit of reducing the loss of water through evaporation.

  21. TrogS,
    Dutton’s prescription for combining all policing agencies into a single entity with him at the top is a clear step towards a police state. It removes accountability.
    Do you think Labor should agree to this?
    It’s a simple proposition, nothing stupid about it.

    There would be a world of difference between Peter Dutton and Malcolm Turnbull’s version of a HAM, and the Labor version. How a Minster directs their department makes the world of difference to how it functions. You appear not to have comprehended this basic fact.

  22. Prettyone

    I appreciate your posts, because it give me a window into a different world.

    I really do not understand how you think “Malcolm Turnbull and his party have pragmatically responded with policies to suit any group/interest in Australia,”
    unless you mean that the policies will assist in fragmenting existing communities.

    How do you justify Alan Tudge’s latest demonising of the poor, for instance?

  23. Could someone tap on the door of the TV Room in the White House and tell Donald Trump neither Hillary Clinton nor James Comey are the President of the United States, he is? Therefore any crimes involving Russia and the POTUS are of a whole different universe in scale of importance.

    Though I will admit that one of the best skills Trump does possess is muddying the waters.

  24. Barney In Go Dau

    The ‘floating option’. To us it may seem very practical (wasn’t there also a suggestion to cover irrigation drains with solar cells?) but Frydenberg and his ilk would want to insert coal power into the system, no doubt!!

  25. Is this ‘The World According To Trog’ way of looking at politics and analysis? If it doesn’t conform to your perspective but tries to take a nuanced approach to all areas of policy, then it is a crap smorgasboard?

  26. C@t:

    He also tweeted that Scaramucci wanted to endorse him but at the time he wasn’t a candidate.

    This is in direct opposition to footage of Scaramucci himself declaring Trump a hack candidate and a bad candidate. Trump just lies without shame.

  27. C@t

    How a Minster directs their department makes the world of difference to how it functions.

    The first thing that Labor should do is to block the idea that Poytatohead will control all the departments. That would be a good start.

  28. So the days of Malcolm Turnbull as a Moderate are dead? Because if he gives the Rank and File of the Liberal Party the Warringah Motion changes, then he is steering the party towards Conservatism forevermore.

  29. ‘Fess,
    Trump thinks and Tweets like the slate is wiped clean every day.
    It does take the media a lot of their time trying to keep up with it all, which he also plays on.

  30. Scaramucci decides to delete some past tweets that could’ve come back to haunt him.

    He began hitting the delete button on Friday, binning a tweet that praised 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney for staying out of the Trump “spectacle” and another that said former House speaker Newt Gingrich showed “no judgment” by backing the Trump campaign.

    Also gone was a 2012 tweet in which Scaramucci praised Hillary Clinton, who remains a Trump obsession, as “incredibly competent”.

    He also posted: “I like Hillary. Have to go with the best athlete. We need to turn this around.” In October 2015, he predicted that the former Florida governor Jeb Bush “will make a great president”.

    There were more. Trump has described climate change as a “hoax” and has presided over a succession of directives and Environmental Protection Agency changes that have alarmed green groups. Last year, Scaramucci wrote: “You can take steps to combat climate change without crippling the economy. The fact many people still believe CC is a hoax is disheartening.”

    The millionaire from working class roots on Long Island has also tweeted about immigration and Islam, two Trump national security obsessions.

    “Walls don’t work,” he wrote. “Never have never will.” Scaramucci also opined that the “overwhelming majority see Islam as a religion of peace, want to live in multiracial/ethnic/faith democracies”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/22/new-communications-head-anthony-scaramucci-deletes-old-tweets

  31. Mumble from the other day on Abbott-Turnbull:

    New Liberal Party president Nick Greiner uttered a formulation this week that made no sense whatsoever. Warning that disunity is death for political parties, and that continuing public bickering within the Turnbull government would lead to defeat at the next election, he declared that Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott need to get together and sort out their differences.

    “Only they are capable of resolving it,” he explained. “They need to resolve it face-to-face, they need to solve it directly, not through intermediaries.”

    Has the former NSW premier really been away from politics for so long he’s forgotten it involves actual human beings, with flesh and blood? These are matters that go to people’s very sense of themselves and their place in the history books. It’s not a simple falling-out: certain irresistible dynamics are at play, some of them elements we’ve already witnessed in action, between 2011 and 2013, during the Julia Gillard–Kevin Rudd saga.

    Two months shy of two years ago, Abbott was toppled as prime minister, a traumatic experience from which he will never recover. The poor 2016 election result and subsequent run of bad opinion polls mean that Turnbull is now a weakened prime minister. The deposed leader perceives a fatally wounded prey and is going for the kill. Deep down, he craves vindication, and this can’t be sorted out in any number of private tête-à-têtes.

    http://insidestory.org.au/mr-greiner-and-the-battle-of-the-titans

  32. I’d vote for four year terms for the house. Not sure how you’d fix the senate.

    Quick Check Pending Referendums:

    Local Govt Recognition – lapsed 2013.

    Aboriginal Recognition

    Republic

    Four year terms?

  33. Swamprat:

    I think the short cycle of elections under three years is too short. 4 is better. In terms of accountability, that could be solved by publishing MP/Senators meetings, real time donation reporting, Federal ICAC, govt stop hiding behind FoI denials etc.

  34. Swamprat

    The problem is that the average term is so much less. They hardly get their office and staff settled down before they’re into another election.

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