Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Most post-budget opinion poll stasis, this time from Essential Research.

No change on voting intention from Essential Research this week, at all – Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 6%. Nonetheless, there is a net positive response for the budget, which records 41% approval and 33% disapproval, and for each of eight individual measures, ranging from 82-7 in favour of a levy on vacant properties owned by foreign investors to 49-39 for the Medicare levy increase. However, 56% felt the increase should be higher for high income earners, as per Labor policy, with 27% favouring a flat increase (though no allowance was made for those who didn’t think it should happen at all). For all the “Labor lite” talk, the Liberal Party’s reputation dies hard, with the budget rated best for “people who are well off” and “Australian business”, and worst for “you personally” and, suggesting at least some insight as to what the budget specifically contained, university students. On the question of preferred Treasurer, Scott Morrison (26%) and Chris Bowen (22%) ran a distant third behind “don’t know”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,263 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Two former Mossad bosses have publicly sunk the slipper into Trump over his stooopid behaviour with their hard-won intel.
    End of story.

  2. c@tmomma @ #1030 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    Another one of Turnbull’s BIG announcements failing to live up to the hype and being positively Machiavellian in it’s intent upon closer inspection of the fine print:
    More hype than hope: history says the PM’s betting-ad ban is a slow, hollow sham
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/sport-focus/2017/05/18/betting-ads-ban/

    Turnbull’s announcement said nothing about on-ground and perimeter advertising, TV commentators and their guests mentioning betting odds or the many sneaky ways direct advertising bans were subverted by the masters of the art, Big Tobacco.

    Yet another Turnbull announceable that falls apart after 5 seconds of scrutiny. How surprisement. The Hollowmen would be proud (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hollowmen).

  3. Grimace
    I think we may on different but somewhat parallel tracks.
    Ultimately those organisations got away with serial rape of children because the state was negligent.
    (This is quite apart from those state-owned institutions that are accountable for the serial rape of children.)

  4. Humpty Trumpy sat on a wall
    Humpty Trumpy liked to appall
    All of Trump’s tweets
    And all his yes men
    Couldn’t get Trumpy elected again

  5. G
    So the free to airs (a) get a massive licence cut because they are going to get a cut to gambling revenue and (b) won’t get a cut to their gambling revenue.
    They are so lucky they are not ex’s ex cats.

  6. a r @ #1050 Friday, May 19th, 2017 – 2:14 pm

    poroti @ #1041 Friday, May 19th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    You would not shout it out to the world almost immediately.

    You would if you had reason to believe the administration was going to cover up the blunder and make it look like the compromise never happened. Which is exactly what some reports indicated they were trying to do; redacting official transcripts of the meeting to remove the parts that made it clear that Trump was using classified intel as bragging material.

    To run dead on the issue just gives the administration what it wants; time to bury the truth.

    And as I recall, at least the outlets that originally broke the story did the responsible thing and redacted the actual city involved.

    Unless of course what was given to the russians was in reality not that yuuge a deal ?

    It may not have been, but that misses the point. The intel was shared by a U.S. ally who wanted it kept secret. It wasn’t Trump’s to share, and by sharing it he undermines confidence in the U.S. and makes allies less likely to continue sharing vital intel in the future.

    Even if the info was of no actual consequence, this time, the nonconsensual sharing of it is.

    There was a report earlier that the leaker was a Trump staffer who having grown exasperated at Trump’s meandering style of Presidency wanted to teach him a lesson about consequences. So, that fits in with the intell not being critical.

  7. victoria @ #1043 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    Catching up on posts.
    Thanks Grimace for the advice. We asked for a confirmation number of the phone call with The ATO and the person we spoke to as well. I can’t recall if they said we would get confirmation in writing. Perhaps we should call again and ensure that occurs

    Once the say they’ve done it ask for a copy of your Running Balance Account statement (individual) or Integrated Client Account statement if the problem relates to a BAS or IAS.

  8. GG, the only party that could know whether the intel was critical or not was the Israelis, not a disgruntled staffer.
    Once you know the city, for all any of us know of the world of spies, you know the ISIS group that was infiltrated. There are likely to only be a certain number of people who are plausible infiltrators and, as part of their cover, they are likely to have loved ones and other “assets” that would give comfort to ISIS that they were not spies.

    But, as AR points out, it is the breach of trust that is important, not the consequences.

  11. Greensborough Growler

    I am not talking about “the administration” they would naturally want to “cover it up” . I am talking about the actions of whoever leaked ASAP to “the world” rather than go to what ever secret squirrel group covers such stuff so as to give them time to protect the asset and all sorts of other things that would need to be done.

    ‘Revelations’ about whatever Trump did can come after what needed to be done has been done.

  12. Trog

    One of Truffles’ mantras is:” if we don’t supply coal to Adani/India, they’ll just buy it from somewhere else.”

    That’s not the bloody point, Mal.

  13. Should note there was a protest group outside the Combank Branch I went past today regrding Adani. Solid conservative area but they where collecting a number of signatures. (Should also note there is a small but dedicated enviro grouping in the area)

  16. Lizzie
    (Turnbull is using the drug traffickers defense.)
    They won’t buy it from somewhere else, they are cutting out coal imports altogether. Turnbull needs to listen to the Indian government. All we end up with is an unremediated hole in the ground, and to the extent that coal is exported in the interim, flood the market and push the price down for existing coal miners.

    Piyush Goyal, the Indian energy minister, has been clear about his intention to phase out foreign coal. “I urge you to stop all coal imports,” he told his state counterparts at a conference in October, adding that he was meeting private industry representatives to help wean them off the fuel “to the highest extent possible”.

    Goyal told the Indian parliament’s lower house in March that coal imports for the 2016-17 financial year had fallen for the third year running to about 145m tonnes, compared with 218m tonnes in 2014-15.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/11/malcolm-turnbull-talks-up-coal-delhi-india-stop-imports

  17. boerwar @ #1053 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 2:21 pm

    Grimace
    I think we may on different but somewhat parallel tracks.
    Ultimately those organisations got away with serial rape of children because the state was negligent.
    (This is quite apart from those state-owned institutions that are accountable for the serial rape of children.)

    Yes, agree we seem to have got on slightly different tracks and we are in agreement.

    The state was negligent in its duty to step in to protect the victims and the relevant institutions need to be held accountable for that failure.

    I do not want to see the parent entities of those institutions using that fact to reduce any liability they may otherwise face in the same way that contributory negligence reduces the liability of a negligent party: the victims get 100% of the damages payable as a result of the criminal and tortious behaviour of the relevant institution, then get another 100% bite at the state institutions that failed them.

  19. lizzie @ #1062 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 2:56 pm

    Trog
    One of Truffles’ mantras is:” if we don’t supply coal to Adani/India, they’ll just buy it from somewhere else.”
    That’s not the bloody point, Mal.

    Well if that’s how Brian Trumble sees things then I’m going to manufacture some crystal meth and sell it outside the local high school. When I eventually get busted my defence is going to be “it’s actually ok for me to be doing this officer, you see, if I didn’t sell crystal meth to these school children then someone else would have done it”.

    Perhaps Mal could represent me in court, I can’t see that defence going down too well with the magistrate if it only comes from me.

  20. “Trump is heading to Saudi Arabia today. What could possibly go wrong”
    Perhaps he’ll grope one (or more) of the King’s wives.

  21. trog sorrenson @ #1066 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 3:08 pm

    Lizzie
    (Turnbull is using the drug traffickers defense.)
    and to the extent that coal is exported in the interim, flood the market and push the price down for existing coal miners.

    That may be Labor’s end game here, get the coal miners to draw themselves into a death spiral. The market gets flooded with coal, substantially dropping the price, resulting in a number of coal mines going out of business, never to return from voluntary administration due to falling demanded and a poor long term outlook.

    In the scheme of things, one more unrehabilitated mine is a drop in the ocean of that problem and is for the greater good.

  22. Trump’s media statement while in Saudi.
    ” I love Muslims. Ever since I saw Peter O’Toole as a Muslim I knew they were good.
    Lots of oil here. Lots of great oil.
    I know you get criticised for cutting off heads sometimes. But I know how you feel. Sometimes it’s better to just to end things quickly. I would like to have cut off Comey’s head! But no. I am joking.
    Do you know I am the most persecuted President in American History? Very bad. Very sad.”

  23. For the record, I wish to state Ms P’s and Queensland Labor’s actions in relation to Carmichael are utterly despicable.

  24. trog sorrenson @ #1059 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 2:43 pm

    Thoughts of a former Coal Association Chairman

    Tim Dunlop now gets it … even if he was one of those responsible …

    Dangerous climate change, which the Paris Agreement and its forerunners seek to avoid, is happening at the 1.20C increase already experienced as extreme weather events, and their economic costs, escalate. 1.6oC is already locked-in as the full effect of our historic emissions unfolds.

    Our current path commits us to a 4–5oC temperature increase; a totally disorganised world with a substantial reduction in global population, possibly to less than 1 billion people from 7.5 billion today.

    The voluntary emission reduction commitments made in Paris, if implemented, would still result in a 3oC increase, accelerating social chaos in many parts of the world with rising levels of deprivation, displacement and conflict.

    It is already impossible to stay below the 1.50C Paris aspiration.

  27. The commenters are getting stuck into Kat Murphy over at the Guardian again. Perhaps Lenore will eventually realise that getting rid of Murpharoo might bring some subscriptions, although they don’t seem too bright over at the Grauniad.

  28. For the record BW, I do not think a bludger has come on site to defend her. Nor for the record does her environment minister, who says no cabinet decision been made. Finally, for the record, nor do I think there is a plausible defence to Premier P’s suggestion as a matter of policy.

    Briefly’s post that it was explicable as meaningless political theatre in circumstances where P does not want to be blamed for the loss when Adani does not go ahead is the only thing that makes any sensel.

  29. sohar @ #1077 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 4:05 pm

    The commenters are getting stuck into Kat Murphy over at the Guardian again. Perhaps Lenore will eventually realise that getting rid of Murpharoo might bring some subscriptions, although they don’t seem too bright over at the Grauniad.

    I suspect most of those commenters would simply be blinkered party shills.

    GA is a fine publication worthy of support support.

  30. steve777 @ #1076 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    P1 @3:46. I am amusing that you are taking about 4-5, not 4-50, but 5 is bad enough.

    That’s a copy& paste error – it is supposed to be 4-5 (degree symbol) C! Same for the other temperatures. The really worrying bit is that a planet 4-5 degrees warmer may only be able to support around 1 billion people. That’s 1/8 of the people alive today.

  31. Player One @ #1079 Friday, May 19th, 2017 – 4:11 pm

    The really worrying bit is that a planet 4-5 degrees warmer may only be able to support around 1 billion people. That’s 1/8 of the people alive today.

    Yes, and the 7/8ths that die will mainly be from the ranks of the world’s poorest. Which is perhaps why the wealth-favoring parties of the world are so deliberately oblivious to the subject.

  32. Mr Albanese went further, labelling the reports “fake news”

    A day too late Albo. This sort of BS from the likes of Massola needs to be addressed early. If Albo had called it fake news to begin with then there’d be fewer news outlets prepared to run with it.

    Now, having said that what about this for a gob smacking comment from two people who call themselves journalists.

    Mr Albanese …consistently denies rumours he is agitating for the top job but the media stories keep coming.

    You represent the media you farkwits! You’ve been told (belatedly) that it’s fake news. What a sad and sorry state the ABC has become.

  33. “GA is a fine publication worthy of support support”
    It has a few good bits (specialist writers, cartoonists), but overall it is as shallow as the Fairfax fluff. The Guardian has long been a faux lefty rag, but scratch beneath the surface.

  34. “GA is a fine publication worthy of support support”

    I subscribed to the NYT yesterday. So long as Trump is providing great damage to the USA and the world generally I need a source that’s prepared to tell it straight.

    I wouldn’t subscribe to Fairfax or News Corp rags and now I have lost the taste for The Guardian. I don’t trust any of them to tell it straight.

  35. a r @ #1081 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 4:14 pm

    Yes, and the 7/8ths that die will mainly be from the ranks of the world’s poorest. Which is perhaps why the wealth-favoring parties of the world are so deliberately oblivious to the subject.

    I know. But we will not be immune. Wars, crop failures, famine, disease, fresh water shortages, climatic disasters and mass migrations will take a toll in even on the wealthiest nations. Being an island continent we will probably not lose 7/8, but it is easy to foresee scenarios where we could lose 1/4 or even 1/2.

  36. tom hawkins @ #1082 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    Mr Albanese went further, labelling the reports “fake news”

    A day too late Albo. This sort of BS from the likes of Massola needs to be addressed early. If Albo had called it fake news to begin with then there’d be fewer news outlets prepared to run with it.
    Now, having said that what about this for a gob smacking comment from two people who call themselves journalists.

    Mr Albanese …consistently denies rumours he is agitating for the top job but the media stories keep coming.

    You represent the media you farkwits! You’ve been told (belatedly) that it’s fake news. What a sad and sorry state the ABC has become.

    Albo is a frustrated man… and who could blame him !

    Shorten and Palaszczuk are dirtying the ALP brand.

  37. sohar @ #1083 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    “GA is a fine publication worthy of support support”
    It has a few good bits (specialist writers, cartoonists), but overall it is as shallow as the Fairfax fluff. The Guardian has long been a faux lefty rag, but scratch beneath the surface.

    GA concentrates far more on policy substance in an unbiased fashion than Fairfax/News. The latter are simply gossip/opinion columns.

  39. For the record, I wish to state Ms P’s and Queensland Labor’s actions in relation to Carmichael are utterly despicable.

    +1

  40. On the question of preferred Treasurer, Scott Morrison (26%) and Chris Bowen (22%) ran a distant third behind “don’t know”.

    Bowen at 22% is damning assessment from respondents.

  41. Tom Hawkins
    “You represent the media you farkwits! You’ve been told (belatedly) that it’s fake news. What a sad and sorry state the ABC has become.”

    Who was the reporter?
    Sabra Lane interviewed Andrew Leigh this morning, and although most of the interview lacked the usual govt talking points/gotchas, of course she had to ask about leadershit speculation.

  42. Albo is a frustrated man

    Tough luck Albo. There are millions of Australians who are frustrated and they are doing it far harder without the support of a shadow ministers salary.

  43. tom hawkins @ #1089 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    For the record, I wish to state Ms P’s and Queensland Labor’s actions in relation to Carmichael are utterly despicable.

    +1

    Reluctantly, I have to agree. At first I thought they were just playing ‘chicken’ to see who would back down first. But it seems no-one is going to back down, so now it just looks utterly insane.

  45. Grimace, being abused by 6 posters on a blog is not evidence of the truth or otherwise of anything, merely evidence of the tenor of any particular blog and the personal views of the protagonists. Such a failure of logic – i’m surprised it went unremarked!

  46. Albo is a frustrated man

    It comes with the excuses he’s made in the past i.e. “I voted that way because it’s Labor tradition” or “I’m only standing for leader because otherwise no ballot would be required”.

  47. I am not convinced about the bruited population consequences of an increase of 4-5%.
    There will be severe opportunity costs involved in avoiding mass starvation but, on balance, we should probably be able to avoid mass starvation.
    The reasons are manifold.
    They seem to underestimate the massive adaptive potential of agriculture systems.
    GMOs have given humans a rapid crop genetic response capacity that has never before existed.
    There is huge spare capacity in ag systems.
    Globally, all ag commodities are in glut right now.
    Just getting rid of meat protein alone gives us a buffer of a billion people fed.
    Getting rid of global food waste from the paddock, through storage, to preparation and eating – probably another half a billion people could be fed.
    Population increase is predicted to finish by the middle of the century – another consideration.
    The huge nutrient pulse as lowlands are flooded is likely to bring with it a massive huge seafood pulse.
    Closed systems become more, not less possible with a five per cent increase.
    Eg:
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/world-first-solar-tower-powered-tomato-farm-opens-port-augusta-41643/

    We may also have to get ready for ugh food grown using GM bacteria/plant associations. The more free heat the better, in general.

  49. The Plutus tax scam is getting whiffy, how did they get 9 government agencies signed up. How many government contracts did they have to cream off $165 million in one financial year.

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