No change on voting intention from Essential Research this week, at all – Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 6%. Nonetheless, there is a net positive response for the budget, which records 41% approval and 33% disapproval, and for each of eight individual measures, ranging from 82-7 in favour of a levy on vacant properties owned by foreign investors to 49-39 for the Medicare levy increase. However, 56% felt the increase should be higher for high income earners, as per Labor policy, with 27% favouring a flat increase (though no allowance was made for those who didn’t think it should happen at all). For all the “Labor lite” talk, the Liberal Party’s reputation dies hard, with the budget rated best for “people who are well off” and “Australian business”, and worst for “you personally” and, suggesting at least some insight as to what the budget specifically contained, university students. On the question of preferred Treasurer, Scott Morrison (26%) and Chris Bowen (22%) ran a distant third behind “don’t know”.
Good Morning!
Counterpunch with an alternate view on the Trump – Lavrov ‘leak’ brouhaha
http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/05/18/fast-and-furious-now-theyre-really-gunning-for-trump/
Jen,
The Gallup tracking, which I believe is national, currently has approval on 38. The lowest they have had him as POTUS is 36 at about the time his destruction of Obama care was foiled by his own party. But it might have had nothing to do with that, it could have been some comment that sounded like back-tracking on the wall that got the low rating for all we know.
It really is deplorable : )
don @ #930 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 7:35 am
Maybe they get tip offs about ostentatious spending such as Ferraris, mansions and expensive boats? The sort of spending that attracts attention.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christian-porter-begins-task-of-convincing-states-to-join-child-sex-abuse-compensation-scheme-20170518-gw81pi.html
Here’s a better idea:
We go through the list of organisations identified as having abused children under their care and identify who the ultimate parent entity is. Identification of the ultimate parent entity is required because in a great many cases the specific legal entity that committed the abuses (and as such is liable to pay compensation) will be long gone.
The government then tells these identified parent entities that we are dispensing with the legal fiction that they are separate from the responsible entity and as such are not responsible for the compensation owed by those organisations.
The government then makes the ultimate parent entity an offer: you voluntarily pay your share of the compensation owed, or we’ll do it for you by introducing legislation to strip your assets so that we have sufficient funds to pay the compensation.
In terms of the process of making the parent entity liable, there is already provisions in the Corporations Act to make parent entities liable for the debts incurred by their subsidiaries.
To illustrate my point about common control, does anybody seriously accept that whatever the specific legal arrangement, that their local Catholic/Anglican/Baptist/Salvation Army etc. organisation (school, church, hospital, job network provider, nursing home etc) is not ultimately responsible to it’s Church head office?
I am sick of the corporatisation of profits and the socialisation of losses.
Politico has a thought provoking piece on the Special Counsel..
Robert Mueller might just be America’s straightest arrow—a respected, nonpartisan and fiercely apolitical public servant whose only lifetime motivation has been the search for justice. He was the most influential and longest-serving FBI director since J. Edgar Hoover himself, and someone who has settled since his retirement from government in 2013 into being that rare voice-beyond-reproach that companies and organizations recruit to lead investigations when they need to tell shareholders or the public that they’ve hired the most seasoned and respected person they can find, someone who will pursue a case wherever it leads without fear or favor. He became the first FBI director to serve a complete 10-year term since Hoover, only to then see Barack Obama reappoint him for a special two-year term, a decision that required a special act of Congress and made him the only person to be appointed head of the FBI by two different presidents, of different parties.
“His gift is that he’s decisive without being impulsive,” Comey told me several years back, recalling his years working alongside Mueller. “He’ll sit, listen, ask questions and make a decision. I didn’t realize at the time how rare that is in Washington.”
To understand what they’re now up against, Trump’s embattled White House aides should spend the day reading Mueller’s 2015 report to the NFL, which recruited him to investigate the league’s culpability in Ray Rice’s domestic violence case. Mueller’s subsequent lengthy report oozes thoroughness and the unique gravitas of an experienced prosecutor—his team, some of whom will now be working alongside him in the Russia investigation, devoured millions of documents, text messages and emails; tracked down nearly every person who had been in the building; and called all 938 telephone numbers that called in and out of the league headquarters during the period in question. His rundown of the NFL headquarters’ procedures for receiving mail and packages alone runs to five pages—he almost surely learned things that the NFL’s own mailroom staff didn’t know about who signs for what packages when.
That thoroughness and Mueller’s strong independence should terrify the Trump White House.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/18/james-comey-trump-special-prosecutor-robert-mueller-fbi-215154
PhoenixRed
Hope Claude Taylor is right about this too!!
f**k me – this just gets messier by the day …special counsel Robert S. Mueller is now under conflicts of interest review
Justice Dept. to review possible ethics conflicts involving Mueller’s former law firm
Newly appointed special counsel Robert S. Mueller III will undergo a Justice Department ethics review that will examine possible conflicts of interest regarding his former law firm, which represents several figures who could be caught up in the probe into Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election.
For the past three years, Mueller has been a partner in the Washington office of WilmerHale, whose attorneys represent former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, Trump’s daughter Ivanka and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/justice-department-will-review-possible-ethics-conflicts-involving-muellers-former-law-firm/2017/05/18/fff63f00-3bfa-11e7-a058-ddbb23c75d82_story.html?utm_term=.3bc85d1d01cc
Goodness and I just finished reading Sprocket’s great review of This guy.
victoria @ #938 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 7:58 am
I’m a CPA, DO NOT take anything the ATO tell you verbally as authoritative. ALWAYS get written confirmation. ALWAYS CHECK later. These are the words of bitter experience.
The Carmichael mine has very little to do with business. It is pure politics. Since it is almost certainly never going to get up on commercial grounds the political task is to avoid being blamed when the project is scrapped. The Federal LNP are doing everything they can to appear to be supporting the obviously unsupportable. The QLD government is likewise offering phantom help to a phantom project.
This is little more than theatre in the politic of the absurd. There is no commercial case for the development of the basin. In fact, the competitive economics are very clear. Development would harm every other existing producer and every other existing job. In offering subsidies to the incomer, the LNP and the QLD government are showing a willingness to finance the destruction of other businesses and other jobs. This really is an absurdity proposed in the name of new development and new jobs.
Then there are the environmental considerations and the matter of inter-generational responsibility for the prevention of climate change. These matters affect everybody and will arouse far deeper reactions than the possible subsidisation of a few jobs in the QLD hinterland.
victoria @ #958 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 9:03 am
AAT = Administrative Appeals Tribunal.
“I am sick of the corporatisation of profits and the socialisation of losses.”
Me too. This sums up the LNP objective of governance exactly. You see it everywhere and at every level of government, and it is slowly destroying so many positive aspects of this country.
Also a great idea re institutions and responsibility for the sexual abuse of children within their care.
G
The ultimate parent identity, if I am not mistaken, is the state.
There is nothing phantom about what Labor is doing in Queensland; it is a crime.
Comey friend says ex-director was ‘unsettled’ by Trump’s repeated attempts to influence him and FBI
In a Thursday New York Times interview, senior Brookings Institution fellow — and Lawfare blog editor — Benjamin Wittes described Comey as a meticulous record-keeper who was uncomfortable with the Trump administration’s repeated violations of longstanding policies designed to keep a firewall between the FBI and the executive branch.
Comey, said Wittes, repeatedly “throw some brushback pitches to the administration” in an attempt to establish proper boundaries with the White House, but Pres. Trump continued to make overtures — and then veiled threats — attempting to sway Comey’s thinking with regards to investigations of Trump and his 2016 campaign.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/comey-friend-says-ex-director-was-unsettled-by-trumps-repeated-attempts-to-influence-him-and-fbi/
zoomster @ #979 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 9:42 am
And some people objected to me referring to it as the VI.
Update:
Rang the collection agency. They gave us a number to ring at Centrelink. Rang the Centrelink number, followed the prompts….and ended up back with the collection agency!!
The wonders of the NBN.
Currently connected to FTTN.
Download running at about 56 Mbps.
Upload running at about 27 Mbps.
Internet stopped working abt 8.00 this morning and my Netgear modem would no longer connect.
Startrack have my connection kit on board for delivery today (sometime).
I connected using the ADSL Gateway Connection Kit I have from my “Bundle” excitement days. Ha, Ha, Ha de Ha for those days.
I already have my house set up with Ethernet cable and have run a line from the phone table to my “computer” room and into my Netgear modem currently set up for WiFi.
When I get the kit later today I will set it up with connections to my other computer and TV etc.
Considering that when my ADSL speed dropped to 5 Mbps recently and I didn’t notice for a while – the current speed is excellent.
What difference time of day makes remains to be seen.
Brown Bear appears to be unimpressed but so far I am quite pleased.
:big cheesy smile just like Burt Lancaster used to do:
peter jk @ #1000 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 10:23 am
Interesting, well argued piece.
He certainly removes the hysteria and emotion from the issue.
He makes the point that leaks from the WH and the media themselves made more inappropriate and dangerous disclosures than apparently Trump did.
The site seems to be credible with a strong left bias from what I have found.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/counterpunch/
OK, that was entertaining.
Rang the Centrelink number that the collection agency gave me. Followed the prompts. Ended back with the collection agency.
Rang Cathy MacGowan’s office. Lovely people, but they all have ‘portfolios’. The person with the Centrelink portfolio isn’t in til Monday.
Rang Allan Tudge’s parliamentary office. Explained problem and was transferred directly to someone in Centrelink. My issue is being investigated and they’ll be in contact with me by Tuesday at the latest.
Turns out it is a Family Benefit overpayment dating back to 2014. This is weird because we have always gone with under reporting income and leaving it to Centrelink to determine what we should receive/pay back after we’ve done our tax. (In other words, all we do is fill out our tax return, and it’s up to Centrelink to work it out).
Recommendation: when in doubt, ring the relevant Minister’s parliamentary office.
The best compensation schemes in Australia relate to asbestos disease sufferers.
In Queensland, there are statutory entitlements for workers which normally equate to or exceed what an ordinary judicial assessed amount would be. Common law rights are otherwise preserved.
In NSW, there are statutory entitlements for workers which provide more moderate compensation (but a greater sum on death). Common law rights are otherwise preserved. Quick court assessments are available.
In SA, there are statutory entitlements (thanks to Nick Xenophon) and common law rights are otherwise preserved. Quick court assessments are available.
These systems are funded by wrongdoers and insurers and work reasonably collaboratively.
The sexual abuse compensation scheme can work from these. If there is a liability issue, the states can deem a liability to whomever they like (except maybe Cth agencies). The Cth is more restricted because of its “just terms” obligations when it comes to taking property.
Vic
I’m sure all sorts of shade will be thrown at the sharks circling the embattled SS Trump, fakenews, alternate facts, Foxnews, sundry RWNJ will all have a go a discreditting Mueller and Comey.
But as the Politico article implies, this is boys against men, and juvenile boys at that. They would have war gamed the inevitable blowback, and how to deal with it.
Regarding Mueller’s law firm, he was a partner there and has resigned to take up tye new role. The appointment my assistant A-G stands until it is rescinded.
Can’t wait for Comey’s testimony.
BiDG, I disagree the article in Counterpunch is well-argued. It completely misses the point in a rush to reach a bizarre anti-israel conclusion.
The point it misses is that some of the info Trump provided to his Russian pals was Codeword security info. Including the name of the Syrian city. Sure there was public info previously of the potential banning of laptops in planes based on security risks. This would have been known to Trumps Russian pals.
One only has to watch a half-decent movie to know that reverse-engineering certain information – such as the name of a city – can give enormous clues to the identity of the source of the information. How big? Who knows? Certainly big enough for the Israelis not to want it made public. Which they didn’t.
A US President who cannot be trusted to keep secret that which is wished to be kept secret is a VERY big deal. Whether or not it matters whether there is any harm or even benefit in revealing the secret. And it is hard to see how revealing the name of the City source could be of benefit, but I digress. As Donald Trump tweeted of Hilary in relation to the emails (had it been proven) it made her unfit for the office.
The article ignores that point in its rush to conclude that just because it was Israeli intelligence their Dem and Republican Party lickspittles are now jumping to impeach the President. A ridiculous conclusion based only on an evident wish to somehow implicate the Israeli’s in a conspiracy to impeach the US president with all the anti-semitic “World Domination” themes I have heard too many times to give a stuff about.
New Trumpy Dumpy Poll:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/17/trump-approval-rating-238457
Windhover
Friday, May 19, 2017 at 11:42 am
Yep, the counterpunch piece is well-embroidered anti-Democrat, pro-Trump, pro-Putin, anti-Israel left-pop. It’s not about Trump. It’s intended to discredit his opponents and invokes so-called Deep State actors.
It is conspiracy on conspiracy.
Windhover
Do you have any suggestions as to why the russians having obtained the information would want or try to harm or endanger the ‘asset’ ? The russians are prime ISIS targets and have already had one plane blown up over the Sinai so why would they damage the source ?
Who did the most damage, trump at the meeting or those who shouted it out to the world alerting everyone including ISIS ?
Grimace, re Grattan’s article on the budget, she also makes a false equivalence between Labor in opposition and Abbott.
While they support more spending, e.g. for Gonski, they have proposed several policies that would improve the budget bottom line.
Not to mention rejecting the company tax cuts.
This is conveniently forgotten.
windhover @ #1022 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 11:42 am
I agree with much of what you say about Trump.
But the article wasn’t so much about Trump but about the media’s reaction to the incident and how through their reporting actually revealed more information on the subject than Trump did.
His final conclusions did not make much of an impression on me as I knew the site was noted for having an anti-Israel bias.
You know, people have been predicting Trump’s downfall for a long time now. He has no hope in the election. He won. He won’t last two minutes. He’s still there.
I’ll believe he’s gone when he’s gone.
Another one of Turnbull’s BIG announcements failing to live up to the hype and being positively Machiavellian in it’s intent upon closer inspection of the fine print:
More hype than hope: history says the PM’s betting-ad ban is a slow, hollow sham
http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/sport-focus/2017/05/18/betting-ads-ban/
toorak toff @ #1028 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 12:24 pm
We are all just spectators watching a game, unsure of the rules we still enjoy the spectacle.
I’m assuming that half of the 39 percent of people who support Trump are just anti-government in general. Their gripes and ideological complaints have coalesced into a desire for pure anarchy and it that sense they ‘approve’ of what he’s doing i.e. making a mockery of American democracy and the US government. The other half are simply deluded enough to believe in his innocence and don’t want to admit they were wrong. If Trump were truly innocent, wouldn’t he be co-operating with the investigation in order to prove he did nothing wrong and get it out of the way, not attempting to stifle it? Innocent suspects don’t lawyer up. Trumps protestations and resistance to investigation is damning.
I’m assuming that half of the 39 percent of people who support Trump are just anti-government in general. Their gripes and ideological complaints have coalesced into a desire for pure anarchy and it that sense they ‘approve’ of what he’s doing i.e. making a mockery of American democracy and the US government. The other half are simply deluded enough to believe in his innocence and don’t want to admit they were wrong. If Trump were truly innocent, wouldn’t he be co-operating with the investigation in order to prove he did nothing wrong and get it out of the way, not attempting to stifle it? Innocent suspects don’t lawyer up. Trumps protestations and resistance to investigation is damning.
I found this Politico article well worth the read
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/18/james-comey-trump-special-prosecutor-robert-mueller-fbi-215154?lo=ap_c1
[President Trump impulsively fired Comey in the hope that it would shut down the Russia investigation; one week later, though, he finds himself facing not just one esteemed former FBI director but two: the first a wronged martyr for the bureau, and the second a legendary investigator without a hint of politics.
…
It is as if, after having an unrelated disagreement over movie trivia in a bar, Trump has challenged Usain Bolt to a 100-yard dash or John Cena to a cage match to the death.]
The trouble with Trump is that about half the people who bothered to vote chose him. Even now, surveys show nearly 40% of US voters think he’s doing a good job. That’s not going to change if Trump goes.
This ties in a bit with a news item I heard saying that since Ailes left, Fox News has been flailing. Apparently many in its core audience find it ‘too liberal’ and are drifting away to more extreme sources.
The faces may change but the underlying problems / malaise remain. Come the next economic collapse there’ll be lots looking for someone to blame, and those who caused the problems will be pointing to ‘liberals’, Muslims, greenies, Mexicans, Blacks or “Welfare Bludgers”. Any many will believe them.
It looks like Paul McGeough has found form again after the Fairfax editors told him to go easy on Trump:
In the eye of the storm, Donald Trump has good reason to worry
http://www.smh.com.au/world/in-the-eye-of-the-storm-donald-trump-has-good-reason-to-worry-20170518-gw8e7n.html
Poroti at 12.12 pm
Your questions are beside the point. The point is that the Israeli’s wanted to keep the name of the City a secret. Trump was given the info as Codeword security access info and failed, without any justification, to keep it a secret.
The info Trump passed on relating to laptops was NOT secret at that time. It had already been reported in the press.
You ask why would the Russians, having been provided with the source City wish to do anything to harm the source. The answer is “knowledge is power”. If the Russians can work out the Israeli spy network that operated in the City this could be very useful info for them to keep or trade. In any event the Israeli’s thought it important to keep secret. Having provided the info on trust it is usual to honour that trust, particularly if you want to know the next dirty trick iSIs might be trying to develop – before the plane goes down.
Don
Billie, or anyone else, exactly how does the ATO know how much you spend?
Do they have access to all of your credit/debit card records? I know they have access to the records of your interest bearing deposits, what else do they have that would allow them to work out your spending patterns?
Since the inception of Capital Gains Tax the ATO has mirrored all ASX and banking transactions.
Hence I always use ATO eTax to prefill my tax return just in case i have forgotten a bank account or a share.
There is a fair slab of dobbing in. In Plutus case an IT contractor couldn’t explain why he had underpaid his PAYG tax
if the asset is in your name you better have the income to explain your ownership.
I think the Plutus properties and fast cars were in other people’s names
billie @ #1037 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 1:04 pm
Thanks Billie. Now you mention it, the ATO does have our shares on their list when you do your tax.
I find it a big relief not to have to go and tot up all your bits of interest from banks and from your share dividends and so on.
I just wish Centrelink would do the same.
Re Plutus in one of the SMH reports, they set of a range of shelf companies to obscure the underpayments. Apparently Cranston provided information to his son if one of the companies was suspected by the ATO.
They could then keep one step ahead of the ATO.
This could have been innocuous where the son told him that they had doubts about one of their clients say Company A, and could he check the tax office records for them.
The problems with Centrelink and reporting casual earnings, especially for people paid by universities.
Centrelink expect you to report how much you earnt in the fortnight you worked, even though you might be paid in a following reporting period. This means that if Centrelink allow you to submit bank deposit records for pay earnt 6 or 7 years ago you might have a devil of a time reconciling your bank statement to your reported earnings.
I am reminded that Deakin University used to pay its sessional staff who developed the material and ran the subject a lump sum at the end of the semester.
Really if Centrelink can’t catch you by Oct-Nov after the financial year you worked they shouldn’t be allowed to pursue you
Windhover
The question is very much to the point. IF Trump let slip something then the obvious thing to do would be , quietly , alert the people, in this case Israel, as to what happened. Keep it secret so that action can be taken to protect sources and give time to muddy any trail . You would not shout it out to the world almost immediately. Unless of course what was given to the russians was in reality not that yuuge a deal ?
*******
Billie:
I am reminded that Deakin University used to pay its sessional staff who developed the material and ran the subject a lump sum at the end of the semester.
**********
And the problem is that if you report the income only when it is actually paid, and tell them when you worked, you are fined!
They seem to work on the old ‘get your paypacket every week’ principle.
However you can make arrangements with them for very variable earnings if you are self employed to make an estimate and divvy it all up, plus or minus, when you go in to report to them once a year after you have done your tax.
The caveat for that is that it may be only for cases where your earnings are not important for centrelink purposes, where your centrelink payment is actually dependent on assets.
Catching up on posts.
Thanks Grimace for the advice. We asked for a confirmation number of the phone call with The ATO and the person we spoke to as well. I can’t recall if they said we would get confirmation in writing. Perhaps we should call again and ensure that occurs
Sprocket
agree that Trump and his cronies are rank amateurs!
Well yes, I’ll believe it when I see it too.
The extraordinary thing is that he has behaved exactly as you would have guessed by judging his campaign. The confused contradictions, petty point scoring, and boastful ignorance have been entirely consistent.
This is obviously just what his supporters want.
His unwillingness or inability to learn on the job because he doesn’t read, has trouble with comprehension, and perceives the world wholly within the prism of his own selfish myopia, makes him impossible to work with. Perhaps his supporters will have to see the results of this before they realise it is a recipe for failure.
shellbell @ #1021 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 11:35 am
This is the reason I made the point about establishing control over the entity. Per the Corporations Act, once you’ve established “control”, you’ve got your “just terms”.
Humpty Trumpy sat on a wall
Humpty Trumpy had a great fall
All the spin doctors
And all the psephollies
Couldn’t put Trumpy together again.
boerwar @ #1013 Friday, May 19, 2017 at 10:47 am
I don’t know the contractual history of the children in care – whether the offending organisations had contracts with the state or federal governments to provide the services, or it was purely “charitible”.
Under a contractual model, without being a lawyer, my guess is that the state or federal government would not be ultimately legally liable for the tortious or unlawful behaviour of organisations it contracted to perform a service. Politically the issue of liability would undoubtedly play out differently, as we saw with the home insulation program.
If the church organisations were performing a purely “charitible” role, then I can’t see how the state could be in any way liable for their tortious or unlawful behaviour.
Let me make it clear that I find it absolutely unacceptable that many government employees and organisations (police, teachers, Department of Child Protection etc) knew, or ought to have known, what was going on and did nothing or were involved in the cover-up of the abuse of children. The liability here is a separate issue to the direct liability of the churches.
poroti @ #1041 Friday, May 19th, 2017 – 1:29 pm
You would if you had reason to believe the administration was going to cover up the blunder and make it look like the compromise never happened. Which is exactly what some reports indicated they were trying to do; redacting official transcripts of the meeting to remove the parts that made it clear that Trump was using classified intel as bragging material.
To run dead on the issue just gives the administration what it wants; time to bury the truth.
And as I recall, at least the outlets that originally broke the story did the responsible thing and redacted the actual city involved.
It may not have been, but that misses the point. The intel was shared by a U.S. ally who wanted it kept secret. It wasn’t Trump’s to share, and by sharing it he undermines confidence in the U.S. and makes allies less likely to continue sharing vital intel in the future.
Even if the info was of no actual consequence, this time, the nonconsensual sharing of it is.