BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll aggregation records a slight trend in favour of the Coalition ahead of Tuesday’s budget.

Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.

The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:

In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.

The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:

The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. Thanks Fess,

    Can’t access the AFR. I’m sure I’ll get the gist later on, here or somewhere else. But ta!

  2. These big debt figures are a bit meaningless and hard to understand. We should adopt a unit of measure we can understand. Let us call a Rudd a debt of $188 billion. Then we can express our debt now as 2.4 Rudds, climbing to 3.0 Rudds before stabilising, and the budget deficit as 0.2 Rudds per year.

  3. Kezza:

    Tingle sums up:

    A massive tax hike? A redefinition of government debt? A slug on the banks? The Coalition would have – and indeed has in the past – told Labor it was dreaming to consider such measures.

    This budget doesn’t just bury Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey but much of the legacy and rhetorical overhang of Peter Costello. This is a government that might say it aspires to smaller government but, under the banner of “fairness, security and opportunity”, puts “guaranteeing essential services” at the heart of its pledge to voters.

    The political strategy of the budget was set out months ago. It is based on extensive polling which shows that voters place an even greater premium on access to services like health and education at a time when slow wages growth is making them feel insecure than they do at other times.

    The Opposition will find plenty to attack in the 2017 budget – we already know there will be fights on higher education and schools funding.

    But the truth is this is a budget built on the issues of concern to voters rather than the budget parameters, from housing affordability to anger about banks, to a lack of urban infrastructure.

    Read more:
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  4. Jokes aside, the bank levy is a good idea, and long overdue. I actually wonder if some of the revenue measures will be passed by the Liberals. This is the Hockey budget taken out to sea and sunk as an artificial reef. It is a soft budget, a Poll Budget to discuss on Poll Bludger.

  5. Barney In Go Dau

    Problem here is it only benefits those with a large disposable income already and who probably don’t need the assistance.

    In other words the spawn of their dearest LNP supporters. Warm and fuzzy headlines and graduates from their incubators are looked after. Win win for Scrott.

  6. Sales is right. This is Labor lite though because there is still one thing missing – fixing the housing market

  7. One more thing – as always, the future growth assumptions are heroic. With them replaced by reality, we are looking at big deficits and debts.

  8. Socrates

    Good thought: These big debt figures are a bit meaningless and hard to understand. We should adopt a unit of measure we can understand. Let us call a Rudd . . .”

    Bemused will pop up shortly with a Gillard ratio to redundatise (is that word?) your filthy vilification of Rudd. Watch yourself.

  9. Crikey
    3 mins ·
    Who said the Coalition was fiscally conservative? The 2017 budget seems to say the hell with living within our means — let’s just fund everything.

  10. Zombie measures killed, billions in new spending, massive increases in existing spending yet only the banks, some multinational tax avoiders and foreign property investors ate going to pay a bit more?

    I smell bullshit and predict the usual outcome from whatever cunning plan that Turnbull has dreamt up. The wheels will have fallen off and the latest reset will be in tatters by the end of the week.

  11. Morrison: “This is a smart tax”. And we have “good debt”. And a “fresh approach”, not a Labor budget. Orwell would have been so proud, to hear the Newspeak.

  12. Morrison is saying there will be a $7b surplus in 20/21. Does this include “good debt” spending?

    He truly is a terrible salesman. Tingle called this “a glib political budget”.

  13. Grimace
    You are correct. They are assuming big increases in growth, including wage growth, to get their future revenue forecast. Wage increase have been zero in real terms, yet they are assuming large real increases. All with no unions of course.

  14. And was anything mentioned about climate change? Or even the environment? After their fuss and carry on about electricity, this was their golden opportunity to act meaningfully in terms of promoting alternative renewable energy options.

  15. I haven’t been listening to Morrison. Just cannot do it.

    Has the government recommitted to their big end company tax cuts ?

    Thanks in advance.


  16. Socrates
    They have been assuming Yuuge wage growth for years. Obviously on zero evidence. From the early days of the NE’s reign the moan was that bracket creep alone would deliver the surplus.

  17. The ‘center’ is in the US. Australia has a ‘centre’.

    Yes, and we bloody get a kick up the arse, not the ass.!!! That’s for donkeys.

  18. “Politicians should lead the way and submit to drug testing themselves.”

    I’d rather see them all given some psychometric tests. Lets see Scott Morrison defend this budget with a polygrpah attached to his… fingers. Now Mr Morrison, are you sure these growth forecasts are true?

    Bowen going well “playing catch up…”

  19. Confessions
    Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 8:27 pm
    And was anything mentioned about climate change?

    No, that’s a 4th order issue.

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