BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll aggregation records a slight trend in favour of the Coalition ahead of Tuesday’s budget.

Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.

The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:

In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.

The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:

The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 33 of 38
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  2. I foresee how we need to spend bigly on police, surveillance and military hardware.

    We’re under attack youse know, never been a more dangerous time to step outside your front door.

  4. Now we know debt is still rising.

    This just in from AAP:

    The treasurer has lifted Australia’s credit limit to $600 billion as debt continues to rise.

    Scott Morrison on Tuesday issued a direction to increase the value of stock and securities that are on issue – how much the government can borrow.

    The figure hit $490 billion as of May 5, according to the Australian Office of Financial Management.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/may/09/australia-federal-budget-2017-live

  6. **We’re under attack youse know**
    Damn right. I am under attack from Shiraz drinkers.

    FYI, I dont judge all y’all just because you lack a little refinement.

  7. mikehilliard @ #1602 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    I foresee how we need to spend bigly on police, surveillance and military hardware.
    We’re under attack youse know, never been a more dangerous time to step outside your front door.

    I’d like to see a boost in the policing of illegal drug importation and distribution and fund it by scrapping the $50,000,000,000 waste on submarines.

  8. I remember the ‘ALARM’ from the libs when ALP wanted to make the debt ceiling $300B

    Now, less than 5 years later, they’re pushing that out to $600B FMD this mob is hopeless

  10. Barney
    This just in from AAP:
    The treasurer has lifted Australia’s credit limit to $600 billion as debt continues to rise.

    Or as Costello used to claim about Labor on his “debt truck”: $600,000,000,000.
    Crikey, thats about $25,000 for every ‘man, woman and child’ in Australia!

  12. Confessions,
    Ta! I was aware of the numbers for Essential – just that this blog entry has been up for ages and Essential probably a good opportunity to update it. Unless William is waiting for some post-budget stuff.

  16. Late mail on Medicare rebate. Gone completely.

    Until then, just some late mail on the Medicare rebate freeze. Sky News is reporting that the freeze will be completely lifted, not partially as was thought earlier. Terry Barnes, a former advisor to Tony Abbott, has warned the issue poses a problem for the Coalition, regardless of what they do. Not acting on the rebate will leave them exposed to another Medicare attack campaign from Labor, which proved successful at the last election.

    “So if they don’t do that, they’re in political difficulty, but doing it is going to cost a bomb,” Barnes told Sky News.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/may/09/australia-federal-budget-2017-live

  19. rex douglas @ #1607 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    mikehilliard @ #1602 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    I foresee how we need to spend bigly on police, surveillance and military hardware.
    We’re under attack youse know, never been a more dangerous time to step outside your front door.

    I’d like to see a boost in the policing of illegal drug importation and distribution and fund it by scrapping the $50,000,000,000 waste on submarines.

    Where would you get your drugs then Rex?

  20. Sohar:

    Perhaps there will be some post budget polling that William will post, sweeping up Essential in that.

  28. Voluntary contributions to superannuation will be available for withdrawal for a first home deposit. Up to $30,000 can be contributed and withdrawals allowed from July 2018 onwards.

    Stupid, stupid, stupid ScoMo.

    But hey if these dopes break the economy and the housing bubble bursts maybe adding to demand won’t hurt too much

  30. Ratsak,

    Can you see how voluntary contributions to super are any different to saving through a bank for a house deposit ? Or am I missing something.

    Cheers.

  32. You can rely on the CPG to incessantly ask the question of where’s the money coming from, just like they would if it were Labor.

  36. Anton,

    That is what I am having a problem with. Why not just save with a bank. You would have much more flexibility with the money as well. Add in having to pay back HECS.

    Cheers.

  37. Can you see how voluntary contributions to super are any different to saving through a bank for a house deposit ? Or am I missing something.

    Preferential tax treatment and I am assuming it includes previously invested contributions that would otherwise be locked away.

    So tbf, I can’t confirm the second part, and if it excludes that then it’s not a horrid idea. The problem though is that we already offer far too many tax benefits on the demand side (particularly for investment over occupiers). So best outcome, tinkering with a minor assistance to FHBs (minor addition to already excess demand). Worst outcome, significant addition to already excess demand PLUS serious erosion of retirement incomes and additional pension costs for some future government.

  38. Simon Aussie Katich

    A while back

    Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 4:01 pm
    “Kez – I dont have IBS. I ate a lot of dirt as a child. And it was a long ways to the doctor so ear aches etc tended to get treated with a dash of whisk(e)y – not antibiotics.”

    Yep, same here. -well, not whisk(e)y, but creek water, and a hot water bottle. You either sank or swam as a kid in our neck of the woods. You had to be more than half dead before a doc was called.

    I read (reed, not red), today, that it is better not to discourage children from picking their noses (and eating the produce of same). Apparently good bacteria is helpful (loads in the nose) against bad bacteria, and obviously against shitty bacteria.

    Suspect that’s what you’re on about, about poos stuff. It’s all so timely, isn’t it?

    Who’da thunk that we really are masters of our destiny; if only we didn’t take heed of all the PR bullshit/advertising that does the rounds.

    I think we instinctively know what’s good for us. So, therefore, a person who has difficultly digesting a wheat product, will avoid it, likewise a person who has difficulty digesting dairy.

    But, for those same people to proscribe, nay insist, that a diet that works for them, should benefit a population at large, is bullshit.
    —
    I’m waiting to hear good things about the NDIS in the budget.

    Dear friends of mine, who had twins, almost 18 years ago – one of whom survived, and became severely disabled at age 3, with an extremely rare genetic condition – have been advised that as at the end of August, when their child will be 18, they will no longer be able to access the services to which their son has become accustomed.

    I don’t know what they’re going to do.

  42. ratsak @ #1637 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    Can you see how voluntary contributions to super are any different to saving through a bank for a house deposit ? Or am I missing something.
    Preferential tax treatment and I am assuming it includes previously invested contributions that would otherwise be locked away.
    So tbf, I can’t confirm the second part, and if it excludes that then it’s not a horrid idea. The problem though is that we already offer far too many tax benefits on the demand side (particularly for investment over occupiers). So best outcome, tinkering with a minor assistance to FHBs (minor addition to already excess demand). Worst outcome, significant addition to already excess demand PLUS serious erosion of retirement incomes and additional pension costs for some future government.

    Problem here is it only benefits those with a large disposable income already and who probably don’t need the assistance.

  47. They are pushing towards the center, wonder what their conservatives will think. Bernardi might get some mates.

  48. Perhaps the battle Morrison and Turnbull have in getting the budget passed isn’t with the cross bench but with their own partyroom.

  49. No budget commitment for the environment? Big surprise.

    iView kept crashing for me so might have missed it.

  50. The other issue for me is the subtle shift from Super being about (and only about) your retirement income.

    Now it is also about saving for a deposit to get into the Real Estate market (and there is no way this can be prevented from being used by wealthy young ‘uns to get into the investment market). So what is next for Super? Dip in to pay out a HECS debt? It makes a minor but important dent in to idea of what Super is for.

    Also Anton makes the very good point that most young people won’t have much voluntary super stored away. There would be one demographic that would of course. The fact they are the 1% (or sprogs thereof) that vote Liberal wouldn’t have been lost on the drafters of this idea.

    So the already rich will get another tax break to increase their purchasing power and therefore demand to help drive everyone else out of the housing market. Liberal genius.

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