Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. A chicken hawk is somebody who demands that others go to war and kill or be killed, but do everything they can to avoid they or their family having to do so.

    Examples include, George W Bush and almost his entire Iraq war cabinet. Ditto for the likes of Blair, Trump, & Abbott.

    Big brave tough people, as long as somebody else is paying the price.

    You know, scum.

  2. BIDG
    Of course, with one of the Coalition’s Bad Debt Prevention Kits handed to each youth upon entering juvie, there would be no talk about political footballs.
    They would be obsolescent.

  3. Lizzie,
    There used to be quite a large mobile home village at Parklea in western Sydney. It closed down some time in the last 10-15 years with the residents turfed out to make way for a housing development. I think the mobile home village looked better than what replaced it and I seriously doubt any of the former residents were able to afford to buy in. Parklea Markets are across the road and were recently sold for high rise development of course.

  4. Just Me

    It was quite a !!! to see how to a man the leading lights of the pro war charge to invade Iraq had moved mountains to avoid going to Vietnam. Then to cap it all off later on the same people slimed Kerry, who actually went to Vietnam .

  5. boerwar @ #300 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 7:00 pm

    BIDG
    Weasel words spoken by a true piker, I am afraid.
    Of course there will be some turbulence as the Bad Debt Units choose to go to Heaven in the heavens.
    But when the ripples in the pond die down, the Non Bad Debt Units will have Heaven on Earth.

    Boerwar,

    I’m sorry I have fallen short in your brave new world.

    I’ll just take my kit into the next room, 🙁 🙁 🙁

  6. It is not only the long stay folk.
    Beachside camping and caravan parks were your working man’s holiday spots.
    Not any more. They are now very, very expensive.

  7. BIDG
    In the true spirit of the times, and as a bad debt reduction initiative, the Coalition has just announced that you will have to pay for your personalized Coalition Bad Debt Prevention Kit.

  8. I’m sure there’s a former Liberal or National politician out there who has already taken out the patent, website address and ordered the machinery for the Aus Soylent Green franchise. They’ll make lots of ‘Good’ Profit from it.

  9. Turnbull’s latest word is ‘decisive’ as in he is taking decisive action.
    I guess that means that all the focus groups and polls are coming back with words like ‘wishy washy’, ‘unfocussed’ ‘waffling’ etc.

  10. Australia could not possibly afford a continent-wide missile defence shield.
    I am thinking that the obvious place to put the defensive line would be somewhere south of Brisbane, say on the latitude of Coffs Harbour.

  11. Given education & health care is now ‘bad debt’ we will most certainly have to slash the budget for these items. Has Senator Brandis just added to our ‘bad debt’ by returning money to social legal support services?
    I assume that defence spending tens of billions on submarines & wobbly F34 strike fighters is ‘good debt’.
    Is support for Joe Hockey in the US a ‘good debt’ or a ‘bad debt’?

  12. B
    You are garnering plenty of brownie points for head-of-the-queue access to the Coalition’s Bad Debt Unit Prevention Kits.

  13. Boerwar @ #318 Thursday, April 27th, 2017 – 7:20 pm

    Australia could not possibly afford a continent-wide missile defence shield.
    I am thinking that the obvious place to put the defensive line would be somewhere south of Brisbane, say on the latitude of Coffs Harbour.

    I’d go with Wangaratta. There’s nothing north of there worth fighting for!

  14. Chicken hawks are the lowest of the low.

    A truly despicable breed. Having shot more than a few rounds through SLRs and Steyrs it doesn’t take much imagination at all to realise how being at the other end would feel. And then you realise actually you probably don’t get even the half of it. The guys in the trenches of WW1 or the Deserts and Jungles of WW2 and the guys in the thick of Korea and Vietnam and all the other adventures since, they were facing an ugly reality daily. Getting your head blown off was one of the least worst things that could happen to you. Coming home without a physical wound was no guarantee that the war wouldn’t kill you.

    Aussie soldiers may have been famous for a macabre sense of humour, but you can be sure that they were scared shitless, suffering from exposure to unspeakable horrors, and never going to be the same again. The meaning of Lest We Forget is simply to not do this to our young people again. It’s simply too appalling.

    But when you’ve never had to face even the merest thought of being in the middle of a firefight it’s easy to dehumanise the fallen and convert them from young men blown apart and dying in agony into the ‘Glorious Fallen’. As though instead of a body bag of bits it’s just that smiling youth in the photos in eternal peace. The point of Lest We Forget is to make us have that visceral experience of the utter horror of war. I honestly can’t imagine anyone who can feel that, even only mildly, wanting a bar of the self appointed arbiters vision of Anzac.

    My last Anzac Day was over 20 years ago. I was in the Catafalque Party. Rest on arms reverse and all that stuff. But I’ve never played two up, and I’ve never got pissed on Anzac Day. And I’m perfectly happy for anyone to exercise their freedom to say their piece on Anzac Day, although I’ll hold those who try to shout down others by appealing to some sort of ‘you can’t say that on Anzac Day’ rule they made up as being frauds and knobs.

    I suspect that makes me unAustralian.

  15. booleanbach @ #313 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 7:16 pm

    Turnbull’s latest word is ‘decisive’ as in he is taking decisive action.
    I guess that means that all the focus groups and polls are coming back with words like ‘wishy washy’, ‘unfocussed’ ‘waffling’ etc.

    All decisions and actions are decisive, that is until you decisively change them. 🙂

  16. poroti @ #307 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 7:11 pm

    Just Me
    It was quite a !!! to see how to a man the leading lights of the pro war charge to invade Iraq had moved mountains to avoid going to Vietnam. Then to cap it all off later on the same people slimed Kerry, who actually went to Vietnam .

    Sickening and terrifying.

    Lest we forget, a special note needs to be made of Murdoch’s rather critical role in bringing about that butchery.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/chilcot-inquiry-report-iraq-war-rupert-murdoch-connection-a7125786.html

  17. boerwar @ #321 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 7:21 pm

    B
    You are garnering plenty of brownie points for head-of-the-queue access to the Coalition’s Bad Debt Unit Prevention Kits.

    I just remembered I have some money in the bank and am not the recipient of any Government largess, so I’ve put the kit in the cupboard. Sorry. 🙂

  18. The budget tips are coming out.

    This quote by Richard Dennis at the end is relevant regarding the good/bad debt division.

    “The government’s started a new conversation about good debt and bad debt, which is appropriate because we should have a conversation about the things we should invest in and things we can do without,” he said.

    “But the problem for the government is they’re in the middle of a fight to deliver a $1bn loan to subsidise a coalmine at precisely the point that the world is buying less coal.

    “Does anyone think that’s good debt? It’s kinda ruining their narrative.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/27/greg-hunt-hints-at-medicare-breakthrough-as-scott-morrison-workshops-good-and-bad-debt

  19. Yikes, Ian McFarlane is on 7.30 spruiking the benefits of coal seam gas mining.

    All part of the ABC’s diversity program I guess.

  20. Abbott.

    And how could I forget our very own Deputy Sheriff, John Howard.

    So much love of uniforms.
    So much time at Sydney Uni.
    Too hard to wander across City Rd and sign up with SUR.

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #333 Thursday, April 27th, 2017 – 7:40 pm

    The budget tips are coming out.

    This quote by Richard Dennis at the end is relevant regarding the good/bad debt division.

    “The government’s started a new conversation about good debt and bad debt, which is appropriate because we should have a conversation about the things we should invest in and things we can do without,” he said.

    “But the problem for the government is they’re in the middle of a fight to deliver a $1bn loan to subsidise a coalmine at precisely the point that the world is buying less coal.

    “Does anyone think that’s good debt? It’s kinda ruining their narrative.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/27/greg-hunt-hints-at-medicare-breakthrough-as-scott-morrison-workshops-good-and-bad-debt

    Good debt versus bad debt will die a very quick death. The Liberal heartland will not be tolerant, understanding or confused. Morrison and co ran for years on the perils of being in debt, any debt. Turnbull will give them a weapon to bludgeon his Government to death.

    Shorten will become PM without puffing.

  22. Gloves are off
    Show us the money
    No parallel talks

    Theresa May, who is already facing calls from British business leaders not to let the divorce bill stand in the way of more valuable trade ties, could find herself having to explain how she had committed the UK to pay tens of billions of euros before she had anything to show for it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/angela-merkel-attacks-british-illusion-of-keeping-benefits-of-eu

  23. When I was studying economics and had the requisite enthusiasm to pore over budget papers, I recall reading about the current account and the capital account.
    Isn’t this what Morrison is now raving about as if it is something new?
    Current account is your operational expenditure and Capital account is your investment expenditure.
    What’s the big deal?

  24. I had the pleasure of going to the Drama Theatre at the Sydney Opera House and seeing a new play by Jonothan Biggins of wharf Revue fame – Talk. Its about a shock jock who orchestrates an incident, and the way the ABC (on the left of the stage) and the Daily Telegraph (on the right) deal with the evolving situation is reflective of what we see and read every day.

    If Talk comes around to your town, see it if you can.

    The early reviews (by journalists) were scathing, and after seeing how Biggins removes their clothes and whacks them with a cane (metaphorically speaking) you can see why they were upset.

  25. Price and Bolt now panning the government over the good debt bad debt concept. Bolt says it smacks of desperation.

    They are currently asking their audience to ring in and say whether they buy it or not.

  26. Channel 10 is in the sick ward, with the stretcher being prepared to relocate the indebted broadcaster to the morgue. They fessed up to the stock exchange today that the can’t repay their debt, and major backers Jamie Packer, Lachlan Murdoch and Bruce Gordon need to throw their good money after bad.

    In my view, Channel 10 went into a nosedive when they brought Steve Price onto the Project, which used to be attractive to a younger, progressive audience. Instead, the dead hand of a bad shock jock drove ratings down.

  27. They are currently asking their audience to ring in and say whether they buy it or not.

    Their audience had Howard and Costello tell em for over a decade that debt is BAAAAAADDDDDD!
    and they were stupid enough to believe them

    Trumble as LOTO also ran with debt is baddd!
    and I suppose any of them that were listening to him probably believed him

    Then Abbott ramp up DEBT IS BBBBBBBBBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! to 11.
    to be a Liberal voter Bolt listen is to be dumb as a box of rocks so they believed him.

    You can see how they might be a little confused.

    I wonder if Abbott’s next helpful intervention might be around this point.

  28. Prudent expenditure – Imprudent expenditure
    Effective revenue raising – lost revenue raising
    Better than good debt – bad debt?

  29. In my view, Channel 10 went into a nosedive when they brought Steve Price onto the Project

    But he’s cheap. And Gina likes him.

  30. Ratsak @ 324 & 332

    You rarely hear those who actually did time on the front line arguing for more war.

    > “Coming home without a physical wound was no guarantee that the war wouldn’t kill you.”

    My grandfather, the one who actually went to war, came home with serious permanent physical damage, and equally serious mental trauma, and was shat on by his own society, the one that demanded he go to war but then failed to respect or support him when he came back broken.

    They sacrificed him twice, and it destroyed one side of my family. I do not forgive Australia for that.

  31. Just Me, your story sadly is one of many many thousands of similar tales throughout the years. They were killed by the war as sure as being shot, but their names don’t appear on any memorials. If the point of Anzac Day isn’t to make sure we do everything in our power to make sure we don’t have those stories anymore.

    I signed up for the ADF because I believed in the cause of defending my country. But the way some chicken hawks like to play it it’s like we’re still the AIF simply waiting for the Empire’s call. The empire in question may have changed, but the enthusiasm to show how tough you are by sending others to fight and die remains.

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