BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

A recalibrated BludgerTrack records a big swing to Labor in Western Australia, and a smaller but even more consequential one in Queensland.

There are finally some interesting developments to report from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, although they have nothing to do with the headline reading on voting intention, of which the only point of interest is that One Nation has lost its lead over the Greens. Rather, there has been an important change to the way state breakdowns are calculated, which only now is being determined on the basis of trend measures of each state’s results since the previous election, since a fairly substantial number of data points is needed before such measures can be meaningful. In particular, the crude averaging that was being done before was obscuring the big move to Labor in Western Australia amid the backwash of the state election there. It was also dampening the swing to Labor in Queensland, while amplifying it slightly in Victoria and South Australia. The new figures result in a haul of extra seats for Labor on the seat projection, reflecting in particular the richness of marginal seats in Queensland, and the relative paucity of them in Victoria and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,083 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. It’s a con job’: Turnbull’s visa plan is fast unravelling
    Malcolm Turnbulls visa changes would affect just 8 per cent of current 457 holders

    Oh the lulz! ROFLMAO 😀

  3. Bill O’Reilly Could Be Out At Fox News By Week’s End As Boycotters Are Close To A Huge Win

    With advertisers gone and the protest movement against him growing more intense, Bill O’Reilly and Fox News are discussing his departure from the network, which could come as soon as the end of this week.

    The end of the O’Reilly era could also mean the end of Fox News’s ratings dominance, but more importantly, a forced retirement for Bill-O would kick a disgusting sexual predator to the curb.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/18/bill-oreilly-fox-news-weeks-boycotters-close-huge-win.html

  4. Meanwhile…….

    1h
    Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated
    So not only is Donald Trump a corrupt mobster who committed treason he’s also got a degenerative brain disorder. Well, isn’t that grand.
    Jason Karsh‏ @jkarsh
    Donald Trump is in Wisconsin and just forgot Paul Ryan’s name. He called him Ron. Twice.

  7. REVEALED: FBI used contested Trump ‘British spy’ dossier to obtain FISA warrant against Carter Page

    The FBI used a contested dossier alleging ties between Russia and Donald Trump’s campaign in order to convince a judge to grant approval for FISA warrant against former Trump aide Carter Page, CNN reports.

    Officials told CNN the use of parts of the dossier by the FBI means the bureau has corroborated at least some of its contents. Earlier this month, it was reported the FBI obtained a FISA warrant against Page during the presidential election, meaning they had probably cause to convince a judge he was acting as an agent of a foreign government. Page has denied any wrongdoing.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/revealed-fbi-used-contested-trump-british-spy-dossier-to-obtain-fisa-warrant-against-carter-page/

  10. **So far it does appear that the 457 changes was just an announceable – Should we be surprised**
    Are the ABC still performing a fluff job on it? Has the fluffer been caught with their pants down again?

  11. Malcolm isn’t sad that 457 visas are on the way out. Even though some employers have used them to undercut wages, he has got plenty of options in the pipeline to screw the proles even more. Cue his version of the old Len Barry hit, “1-2-3”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An1-ntyBcz8

    4-5-7’s, oh without ‘em, in heaven we’re gonna be
    C’mon, let’s re-install, it’s easy (it’s so easy)
    The old black-birdin’ (the old black-birdin’) easy peasy

    The A-B-C (A-B-C) will just fall in line as they easily do (they easily do)
    And we will do it, too, it’s easy (it’s so easy)
    A-slave-tradin’ (a slave-tradin’) and their babies

    Really, there’s nothin’ hard about it
    Basically, it’s as easy as pie
    De-cremate Johnny’s old WorkChoices
    Sign up the reffos, work ‘em til they die

    4-5-7’s…4-5-7’s…
    Without ‘em it’s easy (it’s so easy)
    Restore slave-tradin’ (restore slave-tradin’) and their babies, yay

    With Fleets One and Two (with Fleets One and Two)
    The Poms sent their convicts well out of view (well out of view)
    Again with Brexit it’ll be easy (it’ll be easy)
    Pay ‘em wages that are measly (oh so measly)

    4-5-7’s, oh without ‘em, in heaven we’re gonna be
    C’mon, let’s re-install, it’s easy (it’s so easy)
    Black-birding, WorkChoices, Transporting and slave-trading visas (oh yummy visas)
    Oh, that’s how elementary it’s gonna be…(it’s gonna be)

  12. The new Guardian Essential survey has Labor well ahead of the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure, leading on 54% to the Coalition’s 46%. Last week’s two-party preferred vote had Labor leading the Coalition 53% to 47%.

    The latest poll of 1,804 voters has 50% of the sample saying super should be preserved for retirement, while 38% think it should be available to buy a home.

    Only 34% of Coalition voters approved of using super for home ownership, with 58% in favour of keeping the nest egg for retirement.

    Support for the concept has dropped since May 2015, when 46% of those surveyed said super should be reserved for retirement and 41% said home ownership should be permitted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/19/more-voters-oppose-use-of-super-for-housing-than-support-it-guardian-essential-poll

  15. Yep. Louise Mensch had this six months ago

    17m
    Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated
    Are you going to update your reporting to include that @LouiseMensch had this on Nov 7? I’ll wait, thanks.
    Gabriel Snyder‏ @gabrielsnyder
    Biggest news here: FBI has corroborated info in the Trump-Russia dossier and used it for FISA warrants (link: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/fbi-dossier-carter-page-donald-trump-russia-investigation/index.html) cnn.com/2017/04/18/pol…

  16. Turnbull has lost the politics on the 457 issue. He just does not realise it.

    As from today Turnbull, Dutton and the government own the skilled migrant visa programme. No excuses no blaming labor ( though they will try ).

    By making the changes such a huge issue instead of just issuing a statement outlining the changes or a low key presser Turnbull decided to go the full monty. According to Turnbull 457 visas are dead. This is a brand new coalition government initiative.

    He has once again over egged and every rort or misuse that bubbles to the surface from now on is his. The unions and labor will be all over this issue. Rorts and misuse will continue. That is a given.

    Turnbull is hopeless.

    Cheers.

  18. Just heard chap from Organic Australia mentioning that organic farmers need labourers (such as 457s) because their production is more hands on than those who use sprays, ie for weed control. Then saw that Dutton wants to charge (tax?) firms who use 457 workers.

  23. Claude Taylor‏ @TrueFactsStated

    The trailblazer on Trump & his declining mental health has been @docrocktex26 Also both @DMRDynamics & @bjimd have been important sources.
    11:32 AM · Apr 19, 2017 from Takoma Park, MD
    61 RETWEETS
    149 LIKES

  24. Based on NYT results on GA-6, Orsoff (Dem) is struggling to hold on to an outright majority of the vote. Still an excellent result. But he needs to win an outright majority or else they’ll be a run-off election.

  25. Kakaru

    With close results like that deep in a GOP safe seat complete with gerrymander win or lose the Democrats are looking good for Midterms

  27. Latest update took it from 40% counter, Orsoff on 50.8% to 46% counter, Orsoff on 51%.

    Probably just some particularly heavy Democrat booths coming in, but good to see his vote share go up, instead of the general downwards trend as the early votes are washed out.

  29. Lizzie,

    Businesses which use 457 visa workers already pay a certain amount to the government when a application is approved. It is nothing new. All the government will do is increase the payment, pretend it will be used for training programmes for Aussies and pocket it in the budget as revenue.

    There is nothing new here just a bit of garden weeding. The rorting etc will continue.

    Cheers.

  31. I dont get the excitement about Georgia 6. The Dems total seems to be only about 2% higher than Clintons was (in the counties with currently high returns). Why is this such a great result? Is it because historically Dems dont perform well in mid-terms and special elections?

  35. Simon Dagg Katich Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:02 pm

    I dont get the excitement about Georgia 6. The Dems total seems to be only about 2% higher than Clintons was (in the counties with currently high returns). Why is this such a great result? Is it because historically Dems dont perform well in mid-terms and special elections?

    Yep. Historically turnout has been lower at mid-terms, and tend to skew older and whiter. So the Republicans tend to do better.

  37. SKatich
    Yes, Trump only “won” the district by 1% (Obama “lost” here to Romney by over 20% in 2012). But the GOP held GA-6 on a margin of 23%. So if the Dem candidate pulls off a win (or close to a win) it suggests a huge swing against the GOP. So that’s why it’s a great result for the Dems.

  42. On Wednesday he said the government was of the view that people applying for Australian citizenship needed to demonstrate adherence to Australian values and a concrete commitment to abide by Australian laws.

    The immigration minister said “measures” would need to be taken before people achieved permanent residency under the revised test.

    His comments are consistent with a proposal under which would-be permanent residents would be granted a provisional visa before achieving permanent residency. Documents obtained by Fairfax Media last November indicated the government was contemplating such a system.

    The leaked documents also made it clear that federal officials had significant concerns about the government’s proposal, with a briefing note that said: “The proposed reforms could undermine Australia’s social cohesion and potentially increase the risk factors that may lead to violent extremism by creating a two-tier society where migrants are treated substantially differently to Australian citizens.”

    The briefing paper also suggested the overhaul could contravene Australia’s internal obligations if the provisional visa system imposed an additional waiting period for access to the social safety net.

    Dutton might as well belong to PH One Nation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/19/citizenship-changes-will-put-australian-values-first-malcolm-turnbull

  46. BC – Kakaru
    Thanks. So Nate Silvers piece about ‘reluctant’ Trump supporters being not particularly tied to the GOP is playing out. I would throw a educated guess that many rabid Trump supporters that came out in the Presidential election arent regular mid-term voters either.

    So although the GOP currently has immense power in congress – the GOP ‘brand’ is trashed.

  47. Nate Cohn’s predictions:

    1 hour ago, forecast Orsoff @ 48%
    35 minutes ago forecast him at 48-48.5%
    3 minutes ago forecast him at 48.7%

  48. Lizzie
    Wednesday, April 19, 2017 at 12:11 pm
    Briefly

    I don’t think anyone is going to be satisfied when this fight is over.
    (Links to other articles on the situation at the foot of this page.)

    Yes Lizzie…I’m sure you’re right. Brexit will cause nothing but grievance.

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