BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017

A closer look at federal polling trends at state level, as Labor surges in Western Australia as One Nation loses some of its lustre.

Below is a detailed look at what the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is picking up at state level, enhanced now with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, to add to the unpublished breakdowns provided by Essential Research and a few scattered results from Galaxy, ReachTEL and Ipsos. Of greatest note are the state election-fuelled blowout to Labor in Western Australia, and the apparent downturn for One Nation over the past month or two, not just in Western Australia but also in Queensland.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,002 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdown: March 2017”

Comments Page 18 of 21
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  1. Ivanka Trump is engineering Steve Bannon’s White House downfall: report

    Saturday New York Times article revealed that President Donald Trump’s eldest daughter Ivanka is the individual most responsible for the diminution of former Breitbart.com CEO Stephen Bannon’s role in the White House.

    Bannon has made his contempt for the “globalist,” “cuck” wing of “West Wing Democrats” led by Kushner abundantly clear. This week, speculation has abounded as to whether Bannon, if forced out, would take vengeance against the Trump administration.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/ivanka-trump-is-engineering-steve-bannons-white-house-downfall-report/

  2. Just a comment.
    Using Windows 10 and Firefox, my page is centered and as good as it gets.
    The emojis is/are a varying problem. I get very confused with truncation, non truncation, deletions.

    If Musrum is around I would like an explanation of what the latest CCCP does in regard to square brackets and emoticons. PLEASE.
    If any of the Poll Bludgers can help with this I would be very pleased to hear him/her also.
    💋 :really, really grateful emoji with kisses: 💋

  5. My post KayJay
    #852 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 8:47 am
    Sent me to the top of the previous page.
    Enough complaints. Time for a little house repair and cleaning.

  6. Oh yes (thanks KayJay for reminding me), our Kookaburras wake us up in the morning and can often be heard until late into the night (the advantages of living across the road from a National Park-long may they reign!).

    Around about 2007 I ‘tamed’ one to come onto the verandah and take meat from my extended foot. I named him
    ‘Kevin’, for obvious reasons. Although I think, being smarter than the average bird, the Kookaburra had figured out that, during the drought at the time he could keep himself and his partner alive to continue breeding by coming for that food, as he refused to do it any more after the drought broke soonish after Kevin Rudd came to office.

    I know that the family still lives around here because I have seen the generations change and they spend a lot of time on my garage peering over the lawn waiting for grubs or skinks to appear. Or in the tree over the Bush Turkey mound out back patiently waiting for breakfast or dinner.

    I have also been told they monitor the Bush Turkey mounds from Winter to Spring and can take the eggs and/or babies..

  7. C@ – Others have experienced the absense of “Kevin’s” company when they were no longer judged as necessary to patronise.

  8. It is surprising that people as smart as Gates, Branson, Bloomberg, Bezos and others are still touting nuclear. It is completely uneconomic,

    I think that proponents of nuclear power are psychologically invested in an identity they have constructed for themselves – an identity of regarding themselves as more reasonable than those idealistic greenies and those clueless conservatives. The substance of the cause they promote doesn’t stack up, but they love the identity of the “sensible centre” (one of the great oxymorons of our age).

  13. C@tmomma
    #856 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 8:54 am
    Thank you. Really interesting “stuff”. ❇
    Thanks CTar1 as well. ❇
    #857 Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 8:58 am
    Others speak about similar with Butcher Birds.
    Thanks again. ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇ ❇

  17. Poroti

    Victoria is correct about Trump going. The only question is will he resign or be impeached or both?

    The Russian thing is not business as normal and at some point with polling numbers so low self interest will make the GOP act.

    The only caveat is that the tea party types might be stupid enough to hang and destroy the GOP as a political force ala the Whigs.

  18. PhoenixRED
    He’s doing a Dubya Bush. George in his first 6 months or so spending half his time “cutting scrub” on his ranch in Crawford. Unfortunately it meant lots of time for the feral mice Rumsfeld and Cheney to play while the cat was away. Even Fox News was giving George a very hard time over all his breaks from the job. Then along came 9/11. We can only hope Trump doesn’t get his 9/11.

  20. @C@tmomma
    Those yellow tailed blacks ?looikeets, huge birds with calls like creaking doors, are actually cockatoos. I’m mad about them. We have heaps, and Banksias are their favourite. Also Hakeas. We’re trying to reestablish the smaller red tailed glossy black cockatoo by planting out She Oaks, courtesy of National Parks and Wildlife.

    Anyone else got Gang Gangs? Always in pairs, and around when the wattles go to seed.

    And lyrebirds – my sacred cows – are everywhere (edge of Morton National Park). Actually they do most damage, but forgiven all, with claws any excavator would be proud of.

    Easter Greetings, and just remember:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQPlFLtWDwM

  22. I am a bit slow this morning. Jester reported this sometime ago.

    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    Replying to @th3j35t3r
    ^^^ UPDATE Reports indicating this failed missile launch was headed towards our carrier group and intended as a ‘warning shot’.

    201

    153

    16m
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    ^^^ UPDATE Image of Mayang-Do – the likely launch facility of the Norks latest fuckup in near Sinpo, North Korea.
    Embedded

    182

    235

    30m
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    Replying to @th3j35t3r
    ^^^ UPDATE: More – N.Korea has attempted to launch a ballistic missile but the launch appears to have been a failure (link: http://bnonews.com/news/index.php/news/id5822) bnonews.com/news/index.php…

    152

    213

    52m
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    #FLASH – “North Korea appears to have attempted to launch a missile, but the launch was a failure” – Yonhap

  23. Victoria
    #FLASH – “North Korea appears to have attempted to launch a missile, but the launch was a failure” – Yonhap

    A launch is a launch is a launch. It’s the thought that counts. Now what Little Hands.

  25. Itzadream

    Yep. Little hands did indicate that there would be a response. Hopefully he will get distracted by all his imbroglios!

  26. victoria Sunday, April 16, 2017 at 10:02 am
    Itzadream
    Yep. Little hands did indicate that there would be a response. Hopefully he will get distracted by all his imbroglios!

    ******************************************

    Its the other way round, Victoria – its using NK/missiles to distract FROM the Russian imbroglios …

  27. The $64 question now seems to be whether the launch failed because of Murphy’s Law or because the US managed to make it fail.
    Since all sides are fully invested in fake news I am 100% sure that we will never know for sure.

  30. Bw

    or because the US managed to make it fail.

    I doubt that they can. I guess that this is a large part of their frustration with NK.

  31. The New York Times
    8 mins ·
    A show of strength by North Korea fizzled as one of its ballistic missiles “blew up almost immediately” upon launch, an official said.

  32. Causing rocket launches to fail brings a whole new meaning to ‘digital disruption’.

    It can probably be done … given the rudimentary level of tech that NK appears to show with it’s little vignettes show Kim Jong Un pointing at old TV sets with a magic want refurbished from Harry Potter movies.

  38. I agree with John Ziegler on this:

    “and apparently Russia is now our enemy again and we even seem to be bragging about how horrible relations with them suddenly are. Of course, that all does seem a bit like a man going out of his way to distance himself from his mistress once he realized that his wife was getting too suspicious.”

  39. Donald Trump Wants to ‘Ride Like Vladimir’ in Queen Elizabeth’s Golden Carriage

    Trump wants to be like his hero, Vladimir Putin, who rode in the royal carriage when he visited in 2003, or President Xi, who rode it in 2015

    If someone starts shooting, it won’t stop bullets, and horses don’t make much of a getaway vehicle.

    Trump is not very popular in Great Britain. When Trump starts to realize the danger, perhaps he will change his mind?

    Or perhaps the allure of the thing for a man with a golden potty but no access to a golden carriage will override caution. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/15/donald-trump-ride-vladimir-queen-elizabeths-golden-carriage.html

  42. I imagine that if they have penetrated the NK IT then they could make it fail.

    Would have made Trump look more ‘leaderly’ than sending the Battle Group to menace the Norks. As in, ‘I can go to Florida and play golf and STILL blow up ur missiles! I don’t need to do any more than that.’ 🙂

  43. [ I imagine that if they have penetrated the NK IT then they could make it fail. ]

    Much simpler explanation is that the missile just failed. It only takes a very little thing to break or not work quite as it should to give you a thing that goes boom at short notice instead of a viable launcher. Just ask Elon. 🙂

  45. Vic – From your link :

    Though North Korea’s missile infrastructure lacks the competence of Russia’s, Russians using the same type of missiles achieved a 13% failure rate, while North Korean attempts failed a whopping 88% of the time, according to the report.

    The Russian’s are probably saying ‘How many times have we told them to read the instructions that are on the box.’

  47. Trump is not the only problem in the world, remember. An example of the stupidity of bureaucracy.

    Since injuring his back as a chef, David Hockey has been fighting constant pain and an insurance company that encouraged him to work in aged care or as a farmer.

    The 49-year-old has multiple back injuries and is incredulous the insurer denied his request to retrain as a bookkeeper at a cost of $2400 10 years ago. The insurance company rejected his request because sitting at a computer all day would be bad for his back.

    Now, despite being unable to do any heavy lifting, his workers compensation insurer has suggested he retrain in aged care, which would cost $6100. Aged care can involve heavy lifting and the training involves sitting at a computer all day.

    “This whole system is ridiculous,” Mr Hockey said.

    “I now have a rehab provider saying I can sit at a course all day … to train for an industry I can’t work in … for three times the cost.”

    http://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/4599440/thousands-of-injured-workers-to-be-forced-onto-welfare/

  48. 12m
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    Replying to @th3j35t3r
    ^^^ Defense Sec. Mattis says President Trump & military advisers are aware of failed North Korea launch and have no further comment.

  49. “The Russian’s are probably saying ‘How many times have we told them to read the instructions that are on the box.’”

    Unfortunately it’s in cyrillic.

  50. CTaR1
    re: mangroves, thanks.
    When they cleared WesternPort’s mangroves and South Gippsland’s old growth Mountain Ash they released enough silt to kill off large swathes of WesternPort’s seagrass beds.
    I imagine the same could well happen to the Gulf’s seagrass beds and that it could well cloak the phytophores and asphyxiate the trees.

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