Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Some consolation for One Nation courtesy of Essential Research, which records the party’s national vote at a new high.

The Guardian Australia reports the latest result of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has two-party steady at 53-47, with the Coalition down two on the primary vote to 35%, Labor down one to 36%, One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens steady on 9%. There is as always a bunch of other stuff in the poll, which you can read about in the report, or here when I get around to writing it up tomorrow.

There was no BludgerTrack update last week for reasons that should be apparent if you scroll through the last few posts, but here it is now. To be clear, this is what I should have run last week, and does not include this latest result, which I’ll include in my next run later in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,433 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:00 pm

    We will not be breaking promises to satisfy the musings of people who have never spoken to an unemployed WA worker nor campaigned for a single vote here nor, still less, paid taxes or made investments here. We have a democracy here. It works. We like it a lot. We will make up our own minds, thanks very much for asking….

    Miners pay 7.5% of the value of their production in State royalties. They pay company tax as well. If they evade company tax, that is not something a State can do anything to alter. Instead of telling WA what we should do, why don’t you impose some taxes on gas extraction? Why not do as we have done since the 1970s and impose a domestic gas reservation policy on your producers?

    For the very little it’s worth, I am in favour of a more far-reaching renovation of Federation finances – a restoration of the Pre-GST Commonwealth responsibilities – and the imposition of Monopoly Profits Tax…a tax that would apply to all the jumbo corporates in banking, insurance, telecoms, resources, transport, retailing, infrastructure…and the commitment of the revenue to public investment by the States. All the States need better access to revenue for investment purposes. It should not fall to just one of us to finance our sisters.

  2. “Actually “sustainable energy” is all ultimately solar energy, directly or indirectly.”

    Eeer, not quite.
    Radioactive decay -> geothermal power
    gravity -> tidal power

  3. [Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:07 pm
    Actually “sustainable energy” is all ultimately solar energy, directly or indirectly.]

    Think of all the energy we are sucking out of the sun. Apparently it won’t be sustainable either in about four billion years time. And it’s all the fault of those renewable energy crackpots!

  4. Bemused @9:07PM:

    We also have solar –> photosynthesis –> plant growth –> organic matter in geological deposits –> coal

    Last step needs tectonic forces. But wait long enough (e.g. a couple of hundred million years) and coal is renewable, sort of. I remember reading in a science book ages ago as a kid that coal and oil are (sort of) stored solar energy. But I won’t tell any Liberals.

  5. briefly @ #2352 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:00 pm

    We will not be breaking promises to satisfy the musings of people who have never spoken to an unemployed WA worker nor campaigned for a single vote here nor, still less, paid taxes or made investments here. We have a democracy here. It works. We like it a lot. We will make up our own minds, thanks very much for asking….
    Miners pay 7.5% of the value of their production in State royalties. They pay company tax as well. If they evade company tax, that is not something a State can do anything to alter. Instead of telling WA what we should do, why don’t you impose some taxes on gas extraction? Why not do as we have done since the 1970s and impose a domestic gas reservation policy on your producers?
    For the very little it’s worth, I am in favour of a more far-reaching renovation of Federation finances – a restoration of the Pre-GST Commonwealth responsibilities – and the imposition of Monopoly Profits Tax…a tax that would apply to all the jumbo corporates in banking, insurance, telecoms, resources, transport, retailing, infrastructure…and the commitment of the revenue to public investment by the States. All the States need better access to revenue for investment purposes. It should not fall to just one of us to finance our sisters.

    Spoken like a true mining industry compradore who has swallowed all their bs.
    Mining employs relatively few people and freely discards them when it suits. It is pushing harder with automated technology to eliminate even more.

    Yes, I would favour a proper taxation regime for the mining industry, but there is no hope with the current Federal Govt. The best that can be done is via the State Govt for now.

    And the funniest thing of all in your post is you seem tho think John Menadue is some kind of a dilettante.

  6. steve777 @ #2355 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Bemused @9:07PM:
    We also have solar –> photosynthesis –> plant growth –> organic matter in geological deposits –> coal
    Last step needs tectonic forces. But wait long enough (e.g. a couple of hundred million years) and coal is renewable, sort of. I remember reading in a science book ages ago as a kid that coal and oil are (sort of) stored solar energy. But I won’t tell any Liberals.

    Yes. That is the energy “capital account” accumulated over a very long period and exhaustible in theory.

  7. When I was little I used to think that the solution to our Electricity needs would be solved by tapping into the Earth’s core. The heat would power turbines up on the crust and so we would have a cheap, virtually endless supply of Energy!

    Of course, I also believed we could invent materials which would not melt when we put them down under the Earth’s crust.

    I was disabused of my idea when someone told me how far down the drilling would have to go just to get through the Crust, let alone any further, but that that would probably be hot enough anyway.

    Anyway, I suppose that taught me not to watch, ‘Journey to the Centre of the Earth’ and then muse about such things afterwards. 🙂

  8. A disgusting dereliction of duty:

    “As to climate change, I think the president was fairly straightforward: We’re not spending money on that anymore.”

    MICK MULVANEY, director of the USA Office of Management and Budget

  9. Matt Ellis, 34, a Melbourne software engineer, is pleading with his fellow Australians to oppose the government’s idea of allowing home buyers to tap into their superannuation.

    Good on him. It’s bad enough that the system is allowing those who can afford to ‘invest’ (speculate on asset inflation) in that crazy pyramid scheme, otherwise known as the real estate market, to suck up all the savings, so much of the lives of young people (mortgages take up an entire second income in a two income family), now they want to suck up their retirement savings as well.

    It will all end in tears, not least for honest ‘investors’. It will send eventually send lots of spivs broke, but unfirtunately in the process it will bring down the economy and lots of good people with it.

  10. Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:23 pm

    We will reform the Federation…undo the mischief of Howard and Costello…revive State investment…revive household income growth…revive full employment…defeat the LNP and change the country.

    You can mutter and grumble all you like about a side issue in WA Tory political competition….no-one cares either way.

  11. briefly @ #2363 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:33 pm

    Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:23 pm

    We will reform the Federation…undo the mischief of Howard and Costello…revive State investment…revive household income growth…revive full employment…defeat the LNP and change the country.
    You can mutter and grumble all you like about a side issue in WA Tory political competition….no-one cares either way.

    John Menadue has far more influence than you or I can hope to have.
    I don’t want mining companies having undue influence on Australian governments and not paying a proper price for our sovereign wealth.

  12. Briefly

    I share your view on Federal-State finances. I am no expert but I recall reading a few years ago the view of one commentator with some experience in the field that Howard made a big mistake when he decided to give the states GST money to spend as they wished given that State governments had a sorry record of financial discipline.

    You only have to look back at a few WA budgets in the mining boom years when Barnett and his Treasurers Buswell and Porter spent like drunken sailors, handing out over-the-odds pay rises to public servants and totally incapable of any form of spending restraint or imagining the the goose might stop laying golden eggs.

    One hopes McGowan and Wyatt can do much better. Though that would not be hard.

    And while I do think the miners have been able to dodge their commitments I agree that week one of a new government is not the time to bash them.

  13. A disgusting dereliction of duty:

    Trump’s mob are also reversing Obama EOs on auto emissions standards, and federal govt programs that connect students with science and the environment.

    His administration is more party like it’s 1950 than responsible, functional govt.

  14. briefly, rossmcg:

    It was the Court Liberal govt that agreed to the GST carve up terms proposed by Howard’s lot.

    No wonder Barnett’s whingeing never had an impact in Canberra; he was a cabinet minister in Court’s govt!

  15. The basic issue with the GST is it is not the “growth tax” it was held out to be. The wages share of the economy is falling. The consumption share of the economy is falling. The GST share of the economy is falling. Yet the States are forced to squabble between each other for this income. Every State has the same demands for higher investment in infrastructure – infrastructure that will lift State incomes. But the revenue to finance such investment is inadequate. All the States should be fighting to reform GST/ Commonwealth-State finance.

  16. Steve 777

    the last thing a Federal government should do to slow the rise in housing prices is give buyers more money to spend through access to superannuation. there is any amount of evidence that giving people more money to spend does just that.

    Labor had the answer: negative gearing and capital gains tax reform.

    The punters will bleat like mad but in my mind many property investors are not much different to the mugs at the TAB or in the pokies lounge. They are gambling and sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

    they can complain about the rules being changed but when did the tax rules ever stay the same?

  17. When I was little I used to think that the solution to our Electricity needs would be solved by tapping into the Earth’s core.

    I vaguely recall a 1960s sci fi movie about that. Can’t find it in a quick search. As I recall things looked very bad until the hero saved the day (and the Earth).

  18. Confessions
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:41 pm
    briefly, rossmcg:

    It was the Court Liberal govt that agreed to the GST carve up terms proposed by Howard’s lot.

    No wonder Barnett’s whingeing never had an impact in Canberra; he was a cabinet minister in Court’s govt!

    Barnett was the Treasurer who consented to the deal with Howard. For a few years, the GST drew faster than the economy and State spending. But those days are long behind us.

  19. Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:45 pm
    briefly @ #2367 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:38 pm
    Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:37 pm
    Tell him to find another tree up which to bark.

    He doesn’t need any advice from me.

    That would go for all of us.

  20. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-17/liberals-face-another-problem-over-upper-house-president/8365424

    A potential problem has arisen for the WA Liberals, already in disarray, with Labor considering offering a former Liberal minister the role of Upper House president.

    It is understood the new Government is waiting to see whether Simon O’Brien secures a seat in the Legislative Council, before offering him the role.

    If Mr O’Brien accepted, Labor and the Greens could end up with a working majority in the Upper House, based on the count so far.

  21. briefly:

    Mark McGowan MP
    Like This Page · 3 hrs near Perth ·

    I always said that from Day 1 of a Government I lead that we’ll put WA jobs first.

    And I’m keeping my word.

    I’ve just sent Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a letter requesting that Perth is immediately removed from the Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme, and have given notice that we’ve started reviewing the West Australian Skilled Migration Occupation List.

    https://www.facebook.com/MarkMcGowanMP/photos/a.432761316741748.102339.426913580659855/1596812007003334/?type=3&theater

  22. From reading the transcript of Sabra Lane’s interview the only way it could make sense if you substitute ‘intermittent’ for non-renewable.
    “A state that is reliant on an intermittent power source like wind turbines as the backbone of its supply”

    I think the mistake shows an underlying bias.

  23. briefly:

    So typical of the Liberals to negotiate a deal that suited the times rather than the state’s interests overall.

  24. bemused @ #2328 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 8:47 pm

    rossmcg @ #2319 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    To describe wind as “non-renewable” once might be excused as a slip of the tongue, to do it twice raises serious questions.
    Where Ms Lane is concerned I think we know the answer.

    Actually the term “renewable” is not a good descriptor but off the top of my head I can’t think of a better one.
    Fossil fuel OTOH is a very good descriptor.
    I have long thought of it in economic or accounting terms.
    Fossil fuels are energy ‘capital’ accumulated over millions of years, is finite and would eventually be exhausted in time if it were not for Global Warming.
    What is commonly referred to as “renewable” is better thought of as the “current account” energy. It is the harvesting of solar energy as it falls on the earth, either directly through solar energy sources or via its weather effects causing wind and waves and rainfall providing hydro.
    Perhaps “sustainable” is a better term. We live off our energy income as it arrives from the sun.

    non-consuming energy

  25. Bemused
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    Or you.

    You’re the one posting gratuities.
    Give up. You’re wrong. And you’re a bore. Get used to it.

  26. A disgusting dereliction of duty:

    And defunding Meals on Wheels. Because it hasn’t been shown to work.

    The barbarity is unbelievable.

  27. Confessions
    Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:53 pm
    briefly:

    So typical of the Liberals to negotiate a deal that suited the times rather than the state’s interests overall.

    Yes…and a deal that matched their prejudice against the role of the State…

  28. pegasus @ #2376 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 9:50 pm

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-17/liberals-face-another-problem-over-upper-house-president/8365424
    A potential problem has arisen for the WA Liberals, already in disarray, with Labor considering offering a former Liberal minister the role of Upper House president.
    It is understood the new Government is waiting to see whether Simon O’Brien secures a seat in the Legislative Council, before offering him the role.
    If Mr O’Brien accepted, Labor and the Greens could end up with a working majority in the Upper House, based on the count so far.

    Hahaha… I was speculating they might offer it to one of the cross-benchers, but a Lib would be best of all.

  29. Roddmcg @9:45PM: agree 100%.

    The property market is effectively corrupted, with ‘investors’ seeking to exploit what is pretty much runaway asset inflation competing against people looking for somewhere to live, plus real investors looking for rental income.

    The reasons for this sutuation are complex, including people in China wanting to move assets to somewhere they consider safer, but perverse incentives in the taxation system help make the situation worse. Whatever, we have an asset bubble in progress, which is hurting real people, not just those with money to burn.

    It’s even hard to come up with a parallel. In most other markets, collectors / ‘investors’ / speculatirs are largely separated from actual users of a good (e.g vintage cars vs used cars; stamp collectors vs people wanting to post something; old masters vs someting nice for the lounge room wall).

  30. Rossmcg
    #2321 Friday, March 17, 2017 at 8:32 pm
    You people in the east beware. We are building wind farms in WA so we could steal your wind.

    Maybe we could do a deal. we will let you have some wind as long as you don’t use up all the sun on your solar panels before dawn in WA.

    Just remember that South Oz already has working wind farms and if they see WA as a threat in the market place their wind farms will huff and they’ll puff and blow you wind farms down! You know Barnaby’s right!

    Tom.

  31. C@t:

    Vandal is too soft a word.

    I only hope that his govt manages to piss off enough of those swing voters who voted for him that come the mid-terms and the following POTUS election, they all swing firmly back the other way.

  32. A potential problem has arisen for the WA Liberals, already in disarray, with Labor considering offering a former Liberal minister the role of Upper House president.

    Ahhh but that would be just soooooooooo nice. 🙂

  33. If Mr O’Brien accepted, Labor and the Greens could end up with a working majority in the Upper House, based on the count so far.

    Were he to accept, he would earn an immediate referral to the Liberal / Murdoch Dirt Unit. He will need to have a squeaky clean past.

    If it comes off, Labor could take a historic opportunity to address the malaportionment in the upper house.

  34. Tom

    as a sometime SA resident many years ago I am aware that the people there like to think of themselves as more culturally sensitive than the rest of the nation. More in tune with arts and stuff.

    Are SA wind turbines better looking?

  35. From the ABC story about WA’s upper house

    “Mike Nahan is a certainty to take on the role, after Deputy Liberal Leader Liza Harvey confirmed she would not nominate in order to devote more time to her two teenage children.”

    Has Christian Porter tweeted on this?

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