Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

In the first Newspoll of the year, surging support for One Nation drains four points from the Coalition and widens its deficit on two-party preferred.

The first Newspoll of the year, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor with a lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 10% (steady) – and, impliedly, One Nation rather a lot. Notwithstanding his newly elevated international profile, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are all but unchanged, with approval up one to 33% and disapproval down one to 54%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-30, little different from the 41-32 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1734. Hat tip to the always reliable James J.

UPDATE: One Nation is said to be on 8%, and from what I can gather, this is related in The Australian’s report and not in the tables. This is important, because it suggests that Newspoll’s opening question continues to limit response options to the major parties, the Greens and others, with those opting for the latter prompted to be more specific. This would, if anything, tend to result in their support being underestimated. By contrast, the Western Australian state poll published on Friday included One Nation up front.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,410 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The next Liberal PM may not even be in Parliament yet.

    After my fantasy of the government splitting, Shorten being appointed PM and calling an election which Labor wins in a landslide comes to pass, Labor could be in power for a decade or more.

    I’ve long cherished the hope that while the Gillard government survived a whole term (almost) governing from a minority that the coalition will fail to do so even after being elected with a majority. Probably a forlorn hope but it keeps me going….

  4. Father Doyle, the CA Royal Commission witness from the US, was superb. His honesty and compassion were most evident. He gave many reasons for the behaviour of priest and the church and what needs to be changed.
    The commissioners really appreciated his testimony. Doyle was effusive with praise for the establishment and conduct of the RC and on behalf of the “good” clergy in the US he expressed heartfelt thanks for what they are doing and how they are going about it. He said that of all the similar inquiries around the world this RC stands out and its findings and deliberations will be so important in the future.
    Eat your heart out Pontificating Paul Kelly and your ilk!

  6. 21 degrees and bucketing down in Sydney. There have been thunderstorms and local flooding, with the City receiving 56 millimeters since the early hours this morning.

    The heat is back on Friday.

  7. ‘Urban Wronski ‏@UrbanWronski · 3h3 hours ago
    Sabra Lane on ABC RN allows Peter Dutton to repeat all of his vile propaganda lies about offshore detention being humane and working well.’

    Sabra Lane is an exemplary ABC employee, being little more than a govt propagandist.

    When is she going to interview someone from the opposition?

  9. If Bernardi had his way, they would bring back work houses. Which would of course benefit his assumed benefactor Gina Noheart. Just think, if the party survives to the next senate election, he could have his Gina Noheart stable mate Sophie running on his ticket. What a dynamic duo that would be 😉

    Tom.

  10. Watched half a minute of Bernardi’s speech. He has the doleful face and delivery that suggests nothing will ever make him smile. Did someone call him charming? He looks to me like one of those preachers who believes that anything enjoyable is sinful.

  15. Re Victoria @11:15AM It [next Liberal PM] won’t be who most think it will

    Who do ‘most people’ think it will be? I have no idea. There are a few choices, all bad for the country (and the Liberal Party).

  19. steve777 @ #1106 Tuesday, February 7, 2017 at 12:44 pm

    21 degrees and bucketing down in Sydney. There have been thunderstorms and local flooding, with the City receiving 56 millimeters since the early hours this morning.
    The heat is back on Friday.

    We are getting a foretaste of what 3 – 4 degrees of global warming might actually be like.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sydney-weather-heat-could-break-centuryold-record-before-cool-change-hits-20170205-gu6269.html

    I hope everyone is paying attention, because at least 2 degrees warming is already inevitable, and 3 – 4 degrees seems very likely.

  29. That’s rich. Brandis looking across the Senate Chamber to a Left that is split in two between Labor and ‘their mortal enemies’ (:lol: only in play), The Greens!

    Whilst at one and the same time ignoring Pauline Hanson’s (ex-Liberal) One Nation; Nick Xenophon’s (ex-Liberal) NXT; Family First; the Liberal Democrats; and now Cory’s Conservative Tories.

    He’s not good at this politics stuff, is he, the Attorney General?

    I just guffawed.

  30. Its too bad more Liberals do not write (are not capable of writing?) their memoirs. Yet what would we call memoirs that included todays events?

    I imagine the official Cory Bernardi version might be titled “Atlas Shrugged”.

    The other Liberals version would be called “One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest”.

    The everyone else version would be called “Bonfire of the Vanities” or “One Cuckoo Flew Over the rest”.

  32. Player One – you are absolutely right. Sydney and Brisbane and large swathes of the East of Australia are getting a foretaste of a normal Summer circa 2090. Feeling uncomfortable and having trouble sleeping on hot nights is one thing, but a 3-4 degree rise will totally stuff up rainfall pattterns. We are seeing that in Adelaide and Perth this Summer, as well as Sydney. That will flow through to food production and the economy.

  34. “Cory wants to intervene in the bedroom to prevent “sin” but not the economy to prevent poverty and exploitation.”

    What a businessman does in the privacy of his accountants office is between him and his god mammon.

  36. ‘I hope everyone is paying attention, because at least 2 degrees warming is already inevitable, and 3 – 4 degrees seems very likely.’

    Player One – too many distractions, it’s only the future of the planet, after all.
    Meanwhile our hopeless media report on the weather, never mentioning global warming or climate change.

  37. Turnbull axes MPs’ Life Gold Pass

    Malcolm Turnbull has dropped a surprise bombshell on MPs as part of cleaning up entitlements by announcing the Life Gold Pass will be axed immediately instead of allowing a phase-out period.

    The Prime Minister’s decision has angered long-serving MPs close to retirement who had expected to enjoy the free business class travel.

    Only former Prime Ministers will be entitled to the perk but Mr Turnbull, a millionaire, announced he would not use it.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbull-axes-life-gold-pass-immediately/news-story/0d1a36b5a366bdc22fd368c90cbc0bd4

  40. Guytaur,
    Christensen just tweeted confirmation he is willing to cross the floor. Retweeted by Lyndal Curtis.

    There would now be more backbench Liberals, unconstrained by frontbench solidarity, that would cross the floor to vote with Labor & Bandt.

  44. Only former Prime Ministers will be entitled to the perk but Mr Turnbull, a millionaire, announced he would not use it.

    Now that’s believable testimony!

  45. UnChristiansen may be willing to cross the floor on SSM, but he won’t bring down the govt. Malcolm won’t mind that.

  46. ‘Abbott always criticised Gillard for chaos and dysfunction.Makes it look like a storm in a teacup in comparison.’

    The difference is that we never stopped hearing from Abbott and the lines he used being echoed by his media mates.
    Now the opposition is largely ignored in comparison.

  47. Bill Shorten was exactly right when he said before the election that the Libs would go to war with each other after they either won or lost.

  49. A more extreme Senate. To appeal to the centre Turnbull will have to rely on Labor and the Greens even more.,

    Interesting hows the political sands have shifted away fromnthe right.

  50. Shiftaling, since when did something being obviously a cynical ploy ever prevent the Libs from employing it? 😉

    Nah, I reckon in about two years, when Baird’ publicly stated reasons for resignation have evaporated from the public consciousness, we’ll see a by-election engineered in a nice, safe NSW seat. A “reluctantly returning to politics for the good of party and country” Baird will be comfortably installed and will immediately challenge for the leadership against whichever dud has led the party to a 42-58 poll deficit in the meantime. Desperate to at least save the furniture, the Libs will accept him, at least until the 2019 election, at which point, win or lose, he will be turfed in favour of someone more to the party’s tastes (Christensen? ;)).

    OK, not terribly plausible but, just at the moment, I’m finding politics in general, domestically and internationally, pretty implausible too, so I might as well have some fun with the situation.

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