Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition primary vote sinks to the mid-thirties, as One Nation nudges ever closer to double figures.

This week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result finds Malcolm Turnbull slipping a point further towards the danger zone, with Labor’s lead now at 54-46. It also has One Nation once again reaching a new peak, of 9% (up one on the final poll of last year), with the Coalition now only able to manage 35% (down two), and Labor, the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 37%, 10% and 3%.

The poll also finds 36% approval and 48% disapproval for the Centrelink debt recovery program, from a question with less problematic wording* than was offered in the GetUp! poll by ReachTEL. Those opposed were more likely to do so strongly (29% of the total compared with 19% for less strongly) than those in favour (13% strongly, 23% less strongly). Another question finds 46% more concerned about politicians’ expenses than welfare overpayments and 8% vice-versa, with 40% opting for both equally.

A series of national identity questions to coincide with Australia Day includes a finding of 44% support and 30% opposition to Australia becoming a republic, which is more favourable than other such poll results in recent years – no doubt because the question specifies “a republic with an Australian head of state” Also featured is an occasional question on “trust in institutions”, which finds an across the board improvement since September, except for the ABC, environment groups and the Commonwealth public service, which are steady. Police forces and the high court continue to rate best, parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions worst.

In other polling news, Ipsos has a global survey on the American presidency that finds a very narrow band of results internationally with respect to Barack Obama (with the dramatic exception of Russia), with Australia being fairly typical in having 84% rating him good and 16% poor. Views on Donald Trump are a little more diverse, with Australia ranking at the low end in having 25% expecting he will be a good president compared with 75% for bad. Australians are evenly divided on the question of whether he will make it to the end of the year without being impeached.

* “Centrelink is currently conducting a debt recovery program in which welfare recipients are being automatically sent notifications regarding possibly overpayments. From what you have heard do you approve or disapprove of the way this program has been conducted?”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Basically Turnbull is locked into so many positions, particularly in revenue areas, that he is left with attacking the most vulnerable in society to try and balance the budget.

    The government is basically doomed.

  2. @ BK
    I do some business dealings in a certain other third world country. I know what you mean about barriers. A good fixer makes all the difference in these type of places.

  3. Thanks for your response William.

    I guess another unknown is whether Hanson might choose to direct her preferences to the coalition. That could be very damaging to Labor.

    I couldn’t ever see her doing it the other way around though.

  4. Davidwh

    You would hope that wasn’t the case Poroti.,/blockquote>
    Given the gleefrom the likes of Tudge and Porter about going in hard on the poor then in their cases it may be part of it.

  5. william bowe @ #102 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 7:22 pm

    Terrific piece by Robert Manne on Russia and the US election in The Monthly.

    Yes, very good article. Seems to cover fairly objectively what is definitely known, what is not definite but seems likely, and what is not yet known. It is clear that there is no “smoking gun” and (it seems) not much likelihood of one emerging in the short term.

    Getting Trump out on the basis of his links to Russia is likely to take longer than other alternatives. I still think the most likely method is his tax returns, which should show clear evidence of conflict of interest.

  6. I’ve updated my comments on the GetUp! Centrelink poll with some comments about Essential’s as well.

    I also note that this is, by my records, the equal worst Essential 2PP the Coalition has recorded since the 2013 election. 46:54 appeared twice in mid-2014 under Abbott and then six times in the first three months of 2015.

    I don’t place all that much stock in Essential but that’s not to say I place no stock in it.

  7. Of course Hanson will direct her preferences to the Coalition. The Coalition will make her an offer she can’t refuse, they’ll go as far to the Right as she wants.

  8. Trump now plagiarising Kim Jong Un?

    Donald Trump has echoed North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, after declaring that the day of his inauguration should be a “national day of patriotic devotion” – a rallying cry that would not be out of place in the secretive state’s propaganda.

    Trump’s proclamation, which was made official on Monday, has been uttered by Kim in speeches to his 1.2 million-strong military and members of the ruling Korean Workers’ party in recent years.</p?

  9. With regards to NSW, I imagine that people are starting to see a difference between state Labor and Federal Labor. At the state level, Labor is in the doldrums and Obeid and the rest are still in the news while most of their federal counterparts gains came from NSW. As for One Nation preferences, I imagine at a federal level they will be closer to the normal almost 50/50, but maybe a bit stronger to the Coalition as they co-opt Pauline’s policies. At a state level, definitely in the Coalition’s favour in regional/rural areas. Outermetro Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong more 55/45 to Coalition. Note – I have not the freakish ability of Mr Bowe or Bonham to predict results and I’m not that great hahahahah.

  10. What a great comment piece-

    It is welcome to see more and more people calling out the disgusting hypocrisy of many western women such as the idiots who took part in the utterly pointless and cringe inducing marches this week.
    These faux liberals and their naive and insulting promotion of the burqa as some form of womens empowerment is truly sickening.
    They are literally spitting in the faces of women who would and do die for the privileged, indulgent and cosy existence these western women take for granted.
    They should be utterly ashamed of themselves however judging by the interviews I saw with many of them they are too selfish and brainless to see their shocking hypocrisy.
    Also, It is not a surprise that most of these Facebook feminists take great delight in bagging Melania Trump.
    The jealousy is dripping from the bloated, ugly, hairy bodies of most of these women.
    Now cue the shrill hypocrites who take umbrage at my description of these hags while they giggle and slag off the appearance of men such as Trump, Abbott etc.

  11. Terrific piece by Robert Manne on Russia and the US election in The Monthly.

    Thanks William, that is a good read and includes information, esp about the extent of involvement by Wikileaks that I was unaware of.

  12. Trump declares his Inauguration day a “National Day of Patriotic Devotion”? That is truly bizarre. I checked the links, I checked the date (not April 1). To say the least, this guy is a worry.

  13. UK Court rules Westminister must pass a law to trigger Brexit. Scotland the devolved parliaments do not have to be consulted. For those of you interested.

  14. Colton

    The jealousy is dripping from the bloated, ugly, hairy bodies of most of these women.

    Something is dripping from your disgraceful post … and it is not pleasant.

  15. Colton,

    Seriously, man! When you start going on about ugly, hairy, feminists, you are just so obviously trolling to the max.

    Try and be a little bit subtle.

  16. To say the least, this guy is a worry.

    Massive understatement and why so many of us hope the Republicans can deal with him quick smart. A swift impeachment would be the best outcome.

  17. it is certainly true that the ISDS provisions tend to favor the larger over the smaller – governments and corporations

    That’s a general truth about all forms of litigation. Whomever has the deepest pockets has the advantage by default.

    The problem with ISDS provisions isn’t about who is/isn’t likely to win, it’s that in principle corporate entities shouldn’t be able to bend national, state, and local governments to their will in the first place. That’s the exact opposite of how it’s supposed to work.

  18. David and Fess:

    Wiki tells me Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton were impeached (by the House) but the Senate which holds the trial, didnt proceed. Nixon resigned before the House vote.

  19. Trump is still whingeing about “illegal votes” at the election and the crowd numbers at the inauguration. How long can he keep up this presidential tantrum?

    President Donald Trump privately told congressional leaders Monday he wants to move forward with an ambitious agenda, including to repeal and replace Obamacare and to pass legislation bolstering the country’s infrastructure. But he also brought up two past grievances — mentioning his inauguration crowd size and reiterating an unsubstantiated claim that 3-5 million illegal votes cost him the popular vote, according to two sources familiar with the meeting.

  20. Davidwh:

    I am not giving up hope. Trump is manifestly inappropriate and unqualified to be president. I will remain hopeful that the Republicans in Congress will do the right thing for their country.

  21. a r @ #131 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 9:19 pm

    The problem with ISDS provisions isn’t about who is/isn’t likely to win, it’s that in principle corporate entities shouldn’t be able to bend national, state, and local governments to their will in the first place. That’s the exact opposite of how it’s supposed to work.

    I agree with that. I was merely pointing out that the ISDS mechanism is deeply flawed in practice as well as in theory.

  22. eh?

    Paul Harrison ‏@SkyNewsEditor 1h1 hour ago

    #BREAKING The Supreme Court has ruled that Article 50 CANNOT be triggered without Parliamentary consent

  23. Colton

    ‘Now cue the shrill hypocrites who take umbrage at my description of these hags while they giggle and slag off the appearance of men such as Trump, Abbott etc.’

    Um, I’m never slagged off at these men (I think the closest I’ve come to it is calling Trump an Orange Person, fairly mild compared to your invective) so I think that means I’m not a shrill (why is that word women specific?) hypocrite – and yet I do take umbrage.

    As I’ve said before, calling someone a hypocrite because they haven’t taken umbrage at something which that particular person thinks they should have taken umbrage at (and, of course, posters like Colton really don’t know whether the majority of women attending the marches HAVE protested against whatever it is or not) is a very lazy put down.

    It’s easy to keep moving the goalposts so that no matter how many obligatory protests a particular person has ticked off, there is still one or two more that (in the poster’s opinion) they should have been outraged about that they weren’t (sufficiently, at least).

    Which means that no one should ever protest about anything.

    In fact, I’m outraged at Colton for protesting about women protesting when Colton also hasn’t protested about whatever it is that Colton is outraged about these women not protesting about. Hypocrite.

  24. ‘London: Britain’s highest court has ruled that parliament – not the government – must fire the starting gun for Brexit.

    The decision means both houses of parliament will have the chance to debate, and potentially even block, the triggering of the ‘Article 50′ clause in the European Union constitution that starts Britain’s withdrawal.’

  25. Lots of intelligence services in Eastern Europe and the Ukraine among others with a big incentive to get their hands on the Trump tapes and neutralise the Russians. Do they have them already?

  26. davidwh @ #129 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 9:14 pm

    Fess do you know how many successful impeachments there have been? It a very unlikely think to happen.

    I think the big difference, re a Trump’s impeachment, is that much of the talk is coming from Republicans.

    If it happened, it would be interesting to see if Trump jumps or forces them to have the trial.

    Popcorn futures anyone? 🙂

  27. Antonbruckner11

    The Russkiys would have more “tapes” on the Ukraine oligarchs that run the place than you could poke a stick at. so sfa going to happen there. Nothing like a gun at each others head to keep the peace as it were.

  28. How much of Barnaby Joyces much touted millions of assistance for cattlemen goes to PM Malcolm Turnbull? Remembering that the PM bragged to those little Nat$ that he has more cattle than all of them combined

  29. Poroti – I don’t think the Ukrainian oligarchs would give a stuff about film being released of them humping hookers. For the Ukraine this is about survival as a nation. The Eastern Europeans would also be terribly worried about Trump destroying NATO. The stakes are huge. If someone has them, they will leak out.

  30. I can’t see the Republican congress impeaching Trump.
    Anyone who voted for it would be immediately challenged by a tea party candidate or someone further to the right.
    That is one reason any negotiation between the democrats and moderate republicans broke down under Obama. Members of congress spend their whole 2 year term working on their reelection.

Comments Page 3 of 39
1 2 3 4 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *