Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition primary vote sinks to the mid-thirties, as One Nation nudges ever closer to double figures.

This week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result finds Malcolm Turnbull slipping a point further towards the danger zone, with Labor’s lead now at 54-46. It also has One Nation once again reaching a new peak, of 9% (up one on the final poll of last year), with the Coalition now only able to manage 35% (down two), and Labor, the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 37%, 10% and 3%.

The poll also finds 36% approval and 48% disapproval for the Centrelink debt recovery program, from a question with less problematic wording* than was offered in the GetUp! poll by ReachTEL. Those opposed were more likely to do so strongly (29% of the total compared with 19% for less strongly) than those in favour (13% strongly, 23% less strongly). Another question finds 46% more concerned about politicians’ expenses than welfare overpayments and 8% vice-versa, with 40% opting for both equally.

A series of national identity questions to coincide with Australia Day includes a finding of 44% support and 30% opposition to Australia becoming a republic, which is more favourable than other such poll results in recent years – no doubt because the question specifies “a republic with an Australian head of state” Also featured is an occasional question on “trust in institutions”, which finds an across the board improvement since September, except for the ABC, environment groups and the Commonwealth public service, which are steady. Police forces and the high court continue to rate best, parliaments, religious organisations and trade unions worst.

In other polling news, Ipsos has a global survey on the American presidency that finds a very narrow band of results internationally with respect to Barack Obama (with the dramatic exception of Russia), with Australia being fairly typical in having 84% rating him good and 16% poor. Views on Donald Trump are a little more diverse, with Australia ranking at the low end in having 25% expecting he will be a good president compared with 75% for bad. Australians are evenly divided on the question of whether he will make it to the end of the year without being impeached.

* “Centrelink is currently conducting a debt recovery program in which welfare recipients are being automatically sent notifications regarding possibly overpayments. From what you have heard do you approve or disapprove of the way this program has been conducted?”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,936 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 39
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  1. lizzie @ #45 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 5:10 pm

    Bemused

    Clothing prices may well have plummeted, but so too has the quality.

    A point on which I can agree wholeheartedly. I can still wear garments I bought in the eighties and nineties, but the finish on more recent articles is shocking. Where is the saving if clothes have to be replaced more frequently? We are being forced into a throwaway lifestyle. And don’t start me on microwaves!!

    Agree 100%.

  2. We get cheaper ‘cheap’ clothing. I’m sure the child laborers and exploited workers in places like Bangladesh and Turkey will be thrilled to hear the joyous news. Cheaper cars ? I wonder how much that has to do with the rolling out of automation across the industry ?

  4. poroti @ #52 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 5:17 pm

    We get cheaper ‘cheap’ clothing. I’m sure the child laborers and exploited workers in places like Bangladesh and Turkey will be thrilled to hear the joyous news. Cheaper cars ? I wonder how much that has to do with the rolling out of automation across the industry ?

    And the cost of the high tech stuff in cars continues to plummet.

  6. Ctar1
    “When a party has a leader who can’t score points against Theresa, Boris and Hammond you are really talking useless.”

    If Corbyn was a racehorse, he’d be headed for the glue factory.
    Ideological purity can give you a nice, warm-and-fuzzy feeling inside – but it won’t win you elections. It’s bewildering that the Labour Party base in the UK are quite happy for Labour MPs to lose their seats at the election, all in the name of staying true to Corbyn’s quaint ‘values’.

  8. Bemused
    “Clothing prices may well have plummeted, but so too has the quality.”

    I’m a supporter of free trade. But I have to agree with this. Shoes these days are cheap, but of appalling quality.
    I don’t buy shoelaces any more. I used to buy shoelaces all the time – back when my shoes outlasted the shoelaces. Now the opposite is true. (And I know the shoelaces aren’t getting any better.)

  9. Turnbull’s alternate fact:

    JOE KELLY (Oz headline now)
    Malcolm Turnbull opens the door to China to join the imperilled Trans Pacific Partnership deal after Donald Trump withdrew.

    According to the NYT, China is taking advantage of Trump’s move to push its own regional multilateral trade pact and may invite Australia to join:

    China has already sought to capitalize by making a push to complete an alternative pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which aims to unite 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

    Good luck to Malcolm on this one.

  10. My grandmother bought a microwave many years before her death. She has been gone at least twenty five years, but my mother is still using it…

    Antonb, Australians could import cheap secondhand Japanese cars until around the 1990s. I can’t remember what was done to stop it – some kind of tariff? – but I remember it happening, because my husband and a friend were planning to import some.

  11. Clothing prices may well have plummeted, but so too has the quality.

    A point on which I can agree wholeheartedly. I can still wear garments I bought in the eighties and nineties, but the finish on more recent articles is shocking. Where is the saving if clothes have to be replaced more frequently? We are being forced into a throwaway lifestyle. And don’t start me on microwaves!!

    This is not actually the case. You still get what you pay for.

    I buy a lot of my clothes from Op Shops, but also from K Mart. So sometimes I come across a piece of clothing in the Op Shop that is a quality brand. They are still very well made. Sometimes they are made in France or Italy but with others they are designed in the fashion capitals but still ‘Made In China’. They tend to last as well as the ones made in Paris and Italy. (You should see some of the things I have picked up! Some Op Shop ladies just don’t know their labels 😉 )

  13. The same goes for shoes. Sometimes you can pick up some very expensive shoes at Op Shops. Some wealthy people just move them on when the heels get worn down a little rather than getting them repaired. They can afford not to! Or they must have worn them for a special occasion then donated them to charity. I got my son an expensive pair of ‘Made in London’ black faux crocodile skin brogues for Xmas. Hardly worn. He loves that sort of thing. 🙂

  14. Can someone remind me of the 2pp figures
    A just before Rudd was ousted
    B just before gillard was ousted
    C just before the mad monk was ousted.
    are there any guesses how long before Mal goes?

  16. lizzie @ #49 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    KayJay

    The directions on my pill packets are printed in very small print so that only a child with eyesight equal to the best of Wedge Tailed Eagles who are said to be able to spot a moving rabbit from 4 miles.

    🙂
    Not only that, they have decided to print the contents in white on green, or other illegible combinations. Obviously to conceal the facts from consumers.

    Yes, you have detected the serious part of the equation. My eyesight is poor. At home I have on hand various magnifying aids.
    I have some flea/cockroach bombs which the said critters will doubtless enjoy. The instructions are printed in black on silver background with miniscule type. I can’t read it even with an ordinary desk type magnifying glass. Fortunately I have a jewellery loupe type glass at 40 X . I will defeat them. I will read the instructions come what may as I have a much higher powered glass as a backup. My traveling, go shopping outfit may soon require a what used to be called a bum bag. Pain in the bum. Thanks for your input. ❇ ❇

  18. Bemused
    As you seem to be about. Have I understood you correctly, on the previous thread, to be arguing for a psychiatric system separate from the rest of the health system?

  19. According to the NYT, China is taking advantage of Trump’s move to push its own regional multilateral trade pact and may invite Australia to join:
    ________________________________________________________________________
    I know for a fact that straight after the China FTA came into force new non-tariff barriers came up.

  21. citizen @ #59 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 5:36 pm

    According to the NYT, China is taking advantage of Trump’s move to push its own regional multilateral trade pact and may invite Australia to join:

    China has already sought to capitalize by making a push to complete an alternative pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which aims to unite 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

    Good luck to Malcolm on this one.

    We should be worried about this. The RCEP has the same kind of ISDS provisions that were the real purpose of the TPP – the trade concessions (if any!) in these treaties are definitely secondary. Global corporations want these provisions – they allow them to overrule the sovereignty of pesky governments who try to put taxes, regulations, public interest, the health of their citizens or other social considerations in the way of their rapacious greed. They will support any treaty that has ISDS provisions, whether or not they are good for the countries that sign up – and Turnbull is likely to sign up because his interests are more in line with the corporations than the citizens whose interests he is supposed to be representing.

    It needs to be pointed out that ISDS-type provisions always favor the corporations over governments. No US corporation, for example, has ever lost an ISDS dispute. It would probably be the same for Chinese corporations, which (I guess) would also have the backing of their government.

    If you are a small country stupid enough to sign one of these treaties, you are going to lose out big-time.

  22. Monica Lynagh
    Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 5:51 pm
    Bemused
    As you seem to be about. Have I understood you correctly, on the previous thread, to be arguing for a psychiatric system separate from the rest of the health system?

    No.
    Simply that admission should not be via A&E as it currently is.

  27. PlayerOne
    No US corporation, for example, has ever lost an ISDS dispute.

    Err, yes they have. Philip Morris is an American corporation and lost a ISDS case against Australia. You may have heard of it.

  28. jimmydoyle @ #77 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    PlayerOne
    No US corporation, for example, has ever lost an ISDS dispute.

    Err, yes they have. Philip Morris is an American corporation and lost a ISDS case against Australia. You may have heard of it.

    Yes, I thought of that as I wrote it. I’m not sure that was an ISDS dispute, since I am not sure under which treaty they brought the case. There are other provisions in various other bilateral treaties that are not full blown ISDS. Wikipedia says “The United States has never lost any of its ISDS cases”. However, this may refer only to the US government rather than include US corporations, but it is certainly true that the ISDS provisions tend to favor the larger over the smaller – governments and corporations.

  29. @Antonbruckner11

    You don’t need a TPP to buy something from another country, just more excuses from Goverment to lock in bad stuff withTPP, (which there is a lot of it)….

  30. Re Philp Morris case.

    Philip Morris Asia challenged the tobacco plain packaging legislation under the 1993 Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of Hong Kong for the Promotion and Protection of Investments (Hong Kong Agreenment). This was the first investor-state dispute brought against Australia.

    https://www.ag.gov.au/tobaccoplainpackaging

  32. Probably linked to already, but Ross Gittins on Centrelink debts:

    I’ve been amazed by the way the Centrelink boss, the junior minister, Alan Tudge, and the senior minister, Christian Porter, have each denied there’s any problem.

    Really? This is the way bureaucrats and politicians get their names into the history books for contributing to their government’s demise.

    So far they’ve mainly been picking on young people on the dole, but now they’re moving on to invalids and age pensioners. Really? Courageous decision, minister.

  33. jimmydoyle @ #77 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Err, yes they have. Philip Morris is an American corporation and lost a ISDS case against Australia. You may have heard of it.

    More on this. Actually, it is quite interesting …

    http://isdsblog.com/2016/05/26/philip-morris-asia-limited-v-australia/

    I am still not sure it was an ISDS case, but seems Philip Morris lost because of a jurisdictional problem – it was ruled they were not entitled to protection under the treaty they tried to use, so they lost. By comparison, when Philip Morris sued Uruguay (definitely under ISDS provisions this time) they won.

  34. poroti @ #80 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 6:34 pm

    Re Philp Morris case.

    Philip Morris Asia challenged the tobacco plain packaging legislation under the 1993 Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of Hong Kong for the Promotion and Protection of Investments (Hong Kong Agreenment). This was the first investor-state dispute brought against Australia.

    https://www.ag.gov.au/tobaccoplainpackaging

    Thanks, poroti – so definitely an ISDS dispute – but they lost because they weren’t entitled to use the provisions. So not really a true example.

  35. So far they’ve mainly been picking on young people on the dole, but now they’re moving on to invalids and age pensioners. Really? Courageous decision, minister.

    Almost the definition of “career limiting” isn’t it?? 🙂

    Can’t wait to see what ScoMo has in store for the budget this year?? Last one before his tilt #leadershit perhaps??

  36. JenAuthor & Kay Jay

    Question: How do you turn the volume up,in a dream?

    I see the movie, but can’t hear a word they’re sayin’.

    Y’all missing out on a classic or two.

  37. From William’s link.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbulls-centrelink-head-here-pls-20170123-gtxdyi.html?utm_content=buffer3095f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    What on earth is motivating them? Partly it’s that, having made so much fuss about debt and deficit while in opposition, the government is having enormous trouble getting the budget deficit down.

    It lacks the courage to tackle the big sources of rent-seeking by business interests, but is confident it can get away with cracking down on the tiddlers in social security.

    It’s worse than that, however. Porter and Tudge are from the Liberals’ hard Right. You can see from their speeches and remarks they have little sympathy for people poor enough to need social welfare, and every sympathy for their own class, groaning under the weight of a tax rate of supposedly “almost 50 per cent”.

    Their sacred mission is to prevent the need for higher taxes by ensuring none of their department’s “clients” get away with a dollar more than they’re supposed to get.

    Seems that Peter Martin and Ross Gittins both see the Centrelink grab for funds in the same way.


  38. But in a letter sent to Mr Turnbull on Tuesday, shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus said: “I am very concerned that this issue has been publicised by you directly, including highlighting specific agencies, their functions and target areas considered as vulnerable.”
    This is irresponsible in the extreme – Australians have every right to expect their Prime Minister would put national security ahead of their own political purposes.
    “There is no reasonable purpose for the government seeking publicity on details of national security matters such as this.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/irresponsible-in-the-extreme-malcolm-turnbull-defends-publicising-secret-cyber-briefings-20170124-gtxk1f.html

  40. William

    If you are still around, I’m curious to know your opinion about the likelihood of PHONs preferences splitting roughly the same at the next election as they did last year. With so much of their recent gains coming from the coalition I’m wondering if that will result in a greater share for the coalition next time.

    If such was the case it could mean that the current polls, based as they are on the previous election results, may not be as good for Labor as they appear to be at the moment.

    (PS – I asked a similar question a few days ago but I don’t think you you were monitoring at the time)

  41. PlayerOne
    By comparison, when Philip Morris sued Uruguay (definitely under ISDS provisions this time) they won.

    Nope:

    The World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruled in favor of Uruguay on Friday in a suit filed by Philip Morris International seeking compensation for economic damages caused by the nation’s anti-tobacco measures…

    In a lengthy decision published on Friday, the ICSID said it had ruled to dismiss Philip Morris’ demand that the regulations be withdrawn, or not applied to the company, or that it be paid $22 million in damages instead.

    It ordered the tobacco company to pay Uruguay $7 million and to cover “all the fees and expenses of the Tribunal and ICSID’s administrative fees and expenses.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-pmi-uruguay-lawsuit-idUSKCN0ZO2LZ

  42. With thanks to fednk for the link.

    The offer of the briefings had already been reported that morning in a front page article in The Australian newspaper, which carried quotes from Mr Turnbull and described them as “secret” and “unprecedented”.

    Mr Tehan said he had spoken to his Labor counterpart on Tuesday – after the publication of the article – to explain the offer of the briefing.
    …
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten later told reporters he was “incredibly disappointed” that Mr Turnbull had chosen to brief the newspaper before speaking to the Opposition.

    “Malcolm Turnbull must learn to stop playing politics, rushing out trying to get a hurried headline to distract from his lack of a plan on jobs,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/irresponsible-in-the-extreme-malcolm-turnbull-defends-publicising-secret-cyber-briefings-20170124-gtxk1f.html

  44. @Charles

    [Brilliant rant about Trump here from Jonathan Pie:]

    “…a bloated incandescent lobotomised sexual predator…”

    LOL

  45. Surely it must be obvious to this very thick government that the attitude shown by Porter and Tudge towards those complaining about the current Centrelink fiasco is doing great damage to them?

    Or has the level of internal dissent on multiple subjects now got them to the point where no commonsense decision making is possible? It seems so.

  46. kezza2 @ #86 Tuesday, January 24, 2017 at 6:46 pm

    JenAuthor & Kay Jay
    Question: How do you turn the volume up,in a dream?
    I see the movie, but can’t hear a word they’re sayin’.
    Y’all missing out on a classic or two.

    You will need to get input from JenAuthor.
    You will be familiar with the half awake/half asleep mode, early morning, will I get up, will I stay and doze. Your/my thoughts wander and various themes emerge which I then play around with by thinking of what if, why not etc. You/I can have conversations in this way (internally). It is really daydreaming, I think but unlike dreams we can remember these little episodes.
    Jen says she has complete drama sessions.
    Richard Feynman mentions something like this in his book “Surely You’re Joking Mr. Feynman”. Imagine seeing a picture on the inside of your eyelids and trying to control it. Often I think of the classic “he said/I said – I orta have said …..and so it goes.
    Were you serious ❓
    I always take you for an enquiring spirit. No, not whisky, rum, gin plonk or vodka.

  48. CTar1

    Or perhaps it is a sign they spend all their time conversing with RWNJs and so think that they really are doing a fabuloso job ?

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