The return of Ipsos this week threw a spanner in the BludgerTrack works, since its results were starkly divergent from the trend of the other two pollsters, to an extent that went well beyond the pollster’s observed peculiarities before the election. In particular, the primary vote for Labor was four points below anything recorded by Newspoll or Essential since the election; the Coalition were about two points below its recent form; and the Greens came in about six points on the high side. My general strategy for bias adjustment had been to use half measures of the difference between election result and trend measurements for the relevant pollster, but that wasn’t remotely adequate to cover the peculiarity of this Ipsos result. So, for the time being at least, I’m incorporating Ipsos in a way that is all-but-neutral to the overall calculation, but in which the trendlines will be affected by the movement in Ipsos results (or will be, when there is more than one Ipsos result to go off).
Despite the Ipsos numbers having little impact on this week’s result, there has been a fairly solid move back to the Coalition on the voting intention reading, which partly reflects the recent trend of Essential Research, which has had Labor’s lead over the past fortnight narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. On the BludgerTrack seat projection, this translates into gains for the Coalition of two seats in Western Australia, and one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Here the Ipsos numbers did play a role, since its state breakdowns were particularly strong for the Coalition in Western Australia and South Australia. Ipsos also makes as much difference as it would always have done to the leadership ratings, the model for which begins with the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership. Reflecting to the overall strength of the Ipsos result for the Coalition, Malcolm Turnbull records a solid recovery on net approval, to the extent of almost closing the gap on Bill Shorten, and widened his lead as preferred prime minister.
barney in saigon @ #984 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 5:01 pm
In her case the stern would be a more appropriate place for the adornment.
I wonder if anyone at the ABC has ever watched the PBS Newshour? Surely that sets the standard to follow if they are serious about high quality journalism for the future. It’s a million miles above anything in Australia. They are able to present serious discussions between people with differing views without turning it into some sort of ideological grudge match between extremists, staged for ratings and click-bait head-lines.
Oi, Sydney. Southerly buster just hit Jervis Bay. Coming at ya!
Jackol,
Mmmm. Maybe enough with the pointless insults on female politicians?
If a male politician had a face like a horse I would have nominated them.
PP, seconded.
It’s not about what they deserve, or what you or I think they deserve.
Calling people names, sniggering about how “horse faced” or “arseholeish” anyone – politician or not – serves no purpose in civilized debate.
I had no time for people who made fun of Gillard’s ear lobes, or butt size, or accent – it had nothing to do with the merits (or not) of her policies/politics. But if it wasn’t acceptable with Gillard, then it’s not acceptable with Bishop or O’Dwyer or Cash or Mirabella.
Attack their contemptible ‘policies’ and atrocious politics by all means.
C@tsky, Dutton much ?
Thank you, Outside Left. I’m over this sweltering heat!
I miss Winter already!
Lizzie:
If the ABC continues to ape the commercial outlets it won’t have any customers, old or young!
Outside Left,
Mmm, Dutton would be better playing an Ass. ; )
Fess
They’re already at least halfway there, I think.
Don’t forget where Emma Alberici started her journalism career. Doing stand-ups to camera near the latest house fire/car crash/gangland killing for Channel 9.
Or their arrogant, over-entitled attitudes. I don’t care what O’Dwyer looks like, but the minute I hear her in an interview constantly talk over the top of others or refuse to let others get a word in, I switch off. Very off-putting, and unfortunately she isn’t alone in using that tactic.
C@t:
Meanwhile over this way we’re still waiting for winter to end. We’ve either completely missed out on spring, or are not going to get a summer at all. 🙁
kayjay @ #999 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 5:35 pm
Sorry! 🙁
But Kimosabe, why the long face ?
‘Surely that sets the standard to follow if they are serious about high quality journalism for the future.’
That’s one hell of a big ‘if’ right there. They have shown little or no evidence that this is a priority.
One stomp of the front hoof for yes, two for no!
bk @ #1001 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 5:44 pm
Nah she’s too short.
I was thinking of your well voiced love for (infatuation with) Sophie when I made my recommendation.
peter piper @ #1002 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 5:45 pm
I believe I may have identified the flaw in your argument.
kayjay @ #999 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 5:35 pm
Indeed. I strive always to give them the respect they deserve. Sometimes that is not very much.
Boerwar
That reminds me of the view circulating amongst his fellow officers of Michael Carver (later FM Lord Carver, a very great general officer in the British Army):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/1719706.stm
Evening all.
So it looks like the government will have an inquiry to look at what carbon reduction measures to be implemented after 2020, with everything apart from ‘soil magic’ off the table.
While the state governments are leglislating to permit land clearing, the federal government will be paying farmers to plant trees back again.
Jackol,
Language developed to enable gossip. I’m just inserting a bit of ‘Punch’ into our commentary on politics. It’s not like I am Phillipines President Duterte calling President Obama a ‘Son of a whore’. All I see myself doing is carrying on a tradition whereby we the ruled have a little bit of fun at the expense of our rulers.
Frankly, to not do so, to my mind would truly be political correctness gone mad. I’m not saying it to her face. It was just part of the general end of the political year hi jinx where steam is let off.
I can also claim consistency over time as well as being an equal opportunity sledger. On both sides of politics, anyone in the public realm, and personally, comments about appearance should not be a no go zone for mine.
Anyway I can see the situation being that, if people of the nominal Left are 100% polite to their political opponents then they will suffer restraint complications, ie reputational damage, and then that simply ends up enabling their opponents to keep on getting away with doing it and inflicting damage because of it. Such as with your example of Julia Gillard. Us playing nice won’t stop them. And we have just seen how successfully one man destroyed the reputation of opponent after opponent on his way to victory.
Yes we shouldn’t be completely amoral with the epithets we direct at our political opposites; Paul Keating showed how it could be done with panache. However, we also should not be namby pamby milquetoasts either.
Catmomma – no, sorry.
If someone came on here and said Tanya Plibersek was ‘horse faced’, or that Terri Butler was ‘an arsehole’, it wouldn’t be acceptable, and what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
By all means be witty and feel free to show a lack of deference to our political ‘leaders’, but plain old hur-hur ‘she looks like a horse’ hur-hur simply doesn’t cut the mustard as far as PB commentary goes.
Confessions,
Meanwhile over this way we’re still waiting for winter to end. We’ve either completely missed out on spring, or are not going to get a summer at all.
Ah, but I remember Summer in WA verrry well and once it gets going there’s no holding back the verrry high temperatures. : )
Abbott sold it some kind of magical, cheap way of combating climate change, but most of what it did was weed clearing and highway rubbish clean-ups.
That is NOT combating climate change.
[serves no purpose in civilized debate.]
Except we don’t have any civilised debate at all in this country, we simply have political tribes chanting their theme song.
But I agree you can’t be all offended about Julia being treated to sexist indignities and then inflicting the same on others without looking less than intelligent. But it could be worse you might be racist and not know it.
confessions @ #1009 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 5:48 pm
Michelle Guthrie acknowledged on her appointment that her goal was to ‘monetise’ the ABC. Perhaps the only way she knows how to do that is to ape the commercial media. But it has obviously escaped her notice that much of the the commercial media is losing money hand over fist.
We are in a race to the bottom.
Jackol
Just as well I’ve restrained myself from revealing the thought that enters my head whenever I see a picture of Kelly O’D with her head thrown back and her mouth wide open, then.
Jackol,
By all means be witty and feel free to show a lack of deference to our political ‘leaders’, but plain old hur-hur ‘she looks like a horse’ hur-hur simply doesn’t cut the mustard as far as PB commentary goes.
And I think you’ll find that my original intention was the merest of hints. However, in a more general context, if I perceive that someone is being an arsehole then they will be called out as such. It is an entirely apt colloquialism in use all across society. Note also that I didn’t refer to anyone as such in the aforementioned context that we were discussing previously.
C@tmomma
#1024 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 6:14 pm
Speaking of milquetoasts I was watching something or other on TV a couple of days ago and a lady was cooking “Eggs In A Nest”. It just the play on words C@t. 🙂
And yes, the voters are treated as the straight persons for the talented meritocracy. We, the oh so humble peasants will have our revenge. True, it’s not that some of the above are ugly – which they are – or nasty – also true and obnoxious. The real reason is that they aint humble and contrite like us’ns.
Thunderstorm in Newcastle. I had already done my mowing for the day.
Anne Aly taking the p.
Calling people names, sniggering about how “horse faced” or “arseholeish” anyone – politician or not – serves no purpose in civilized debate.
Agree. If it applies to Julia Gillard, it has to apply to everyone. Childish insults do not help advance an argument.
Except Peter Dutton, who looks like a stupid and evil potato, even though he isn’t stupid.
Apparently a house fire on Sydney’s north shore due to lightning strike
steve777 @ #1034 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 6:29 pm
Someone should tell the Liberals this.
C@t:
Perth certainly cops very high temps in summer but we don’t down here. Even so it would be nice to have some sunshine and warmth at least for a few days in a row!
WeWantPaul,
But I agree you can’t be all offended about Julia being treated to sexist indignities and then inflicting the same on others without looking less than intelligent. But it could be worse you might be racist and not know it.
I would love it if you could explain how saying a person has a face that reminds you of a horse is sexist? Is it the simplistic notion that because the subject is a female ergo it is sexist? If so then that is just trivialising what sexism is.
I’d also like to know what this unknowing racism is that you refer to? Is it, again simplistically, an aspersion you are attempting to cast at those of us here who have other ideas about how we are to take our fair share of the world’s refugees? Other than by accepting those who come here by boat? If so, then as far as I am concerned I think you will find in the archives that I have consistently argued that Australia take an increased number of refugees from all over the world and from all the world’s refugee camps. No matter their race.
So, do tell WeWantPaul.
Sydney was hot, humid and fairly cloudy today, Darwin-like, after a warm, clammy night. In most suburbs, it hovered in the low 30s for most of the day, with humidity in the 50s percent. Sydney Olympic Park ranged from 22-34.
An afternoon thunderstorm rolled in as well, although that was nothing like a Darwin storm.
And it’s a ridiculous notion that a public broadcaster has to compete. The ABC should be filling a gap that the commercials won’t touch because there’s no money in it, not simply offering more of the same rubbish we see in the commercial media.
catmomma –
I really have no desire for this to degenerate into a long debate, so having made my point I’ll retire on this matter. P1 was the one, in the same back-and-forth, who made the ‘arsehole’ reference; you were the one who made the horse-faced allusion.
And as you said if someone is being an arsehole, then call them out on that – if there is specific behaviour that you think needs to be highlighted and denigrated, then go for it. But there was no such specific behaviour in this case, just a casual “she looks like a horse” and “she’s an arsehole”. It’s schoolyard nonsense.
jackol @ #1041 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 6:37 pm
I stand by my claim that O’Dwyer is an arsehole. Google for supporting evidence:
Has nothing at all to do with sexism, by the way. Both sexes have arseholes.
Some here have disagreed.
Diogenes for example:
And Bushfire Bill had a few words to say about our esteemed poster:
Fran Barlow:
And Dio again:
From Psephos:
Dio in response:
Zoomster
It means the Govt’s algorithm for doing deal with the Greens becomes:
1. Make cuts $x to Landcare (etc)
2. Reach a political impasse
3. Approach Greens, offering to increase Landcare (etc) funding by $y (where y << x)
Basically a protection racket.
There is racism in your unjustified fears of ‘the Other’. An annual refugee intake of 70,000 would be eminently feasible for Australia. Anyone we couldn’t accommodate could be deported. We would have much greater credibility and leverage with negotiating deals with other countries if we took a share of refugees that was commensurate with our real resources, which are extensive, and our political development, which is advanced. It is dumb and obscene that Australia expects far less advanced and resourced nations to do most of the work in responding to refugees. We don’t need to use detention as the default response to people who arrive without a visa. The “deaths at sea” defense of immoral treatment of asylum seekers is a gigantic con that should be dismantled.
Mine was missing cats and interviews with nineties alt-rock musicians.
william bowe @ #1046 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 6:54 pm
Explains a lot.
That’s a lot harder than reading from a script.
William Bowe
#1046 Monday, December 5, 2016 at 6:54 pm
Beaucoup sympathy.
You actually read this lot?
One reads an awful lot of idiotic bullshit on this blog, but castigating someone for starting their career at the bottom rather than the top is … well, nothing out of the ordinary really, now I think of it.