Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly result from Newspoll registers the best two-party result for Labor since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, finds Labor opening up a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, with the Coalition down three on the primary vote to 38%, Labor up one to 37%, and the Greens up one to 10%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and up two on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 36% and down one to 51%. However, preferred prime minister is little changed, with Turnbull’s lead shifting from 43-31 to 44-33.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Bit of movement in the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average, with the Coalition up two on the primary vote to 39%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation steady on 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team down to 3%. Despite the apparent move in the Coalition’s favour, Labor’s two-party lead remains at 52-48. Other findings:

• An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes reflects a slight deterioration in Malcolm Turnbull’s standing since it was last asked in May, with arrogant up five points, narrow-minded up four and visionary down five. Nearly every one of Bill Shorten’s 15 indicators are up slightly, positive and negative alike, which presumably reflects his higher profile after an election campaign. The biggest mover is “aggressive”, up six to a still modest 36%.

• A series of questions on “leader trust to handle issues” finds Bill Shorten favoured in almost every case, reflecting the fact that that issues identified are mostly on turf favourable to Labor. A curious is exception is “regulating the banking and finance sector”, on which Turnbull led 33% to 29%.

• The poll also finds strong support for voluntary euthanasia, which is supported by 68% “when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain” and opposed by 13%.

• Strong opposition to liberalising of cross-media ownership laws was recorded, with 61% disapproving and 18% approving.

• Respondents were asked to evaluate the level of importance of five issues, which found climate change, a royal commission into the banking and finance industry and a treaty with indigenous Australians rated of high importance, and votes on same-sex marriage and a republic substantially less so.

• Fifty-eight per cent said they would support recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution, with 15% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,470 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Commissioner Justice Heydon rejecting a request from Nationals Senator Bridget Mackenzie to appear in front of a senate inquiry on Tuesday into the re-establishment of the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

    The former High Court justice was listed as a witness for a public hearing for the senate education and employment committee’s inquiry into legislation to crack down on union corruption on October 4.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/10/01/dyson-heydon-refuses-to-front-senate-inquiry.html?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=57efa1bd04d3016c3a2123ac&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter#sthash.Rh3fb46c.dpuf

  2. Vic, perhaps some ALP senators could seek clarification from him on the law around companies engaging in paying bribes to union officials.

  3. I think I’ll wait until midnight when the Wallabies play the Springboks.
    There may arise some international ramifications out of that which will require a UN resolution.

  4. I watched the GF. The deciding phase came early in the third quarter, I thought. The Dogs’ assault really started to overwhelm the Swans defensive methods. Brilliant as the Swans are at deploying defensive structures all around the ground, they were over-run by the relentless energy of the Dogs’ attacking plays. About five minutes into the third quarter it seemed to me the Dogs sensed they could do it. They were at the contested plays with more zeal, in more numbers and more renewal. They made repeated chances for assault and in doing so took the game away from an otherwise incredibly powerful-looking Swans. Great game. Desire won.

  5. in the dark, an email to me today says clocks change tonight summer time starts. Am I going daft as I can find no mention of it anywhere

  6. Doggies were fantastic and thoroughly deserved the win. The umpiring seemed pretty good. I was surprised to see the disparity between the free kicks when it was pointed out to me during the third quarter as it looked pretty fair. It is stupid and disrespectful to say that the win is tainted. That just comes across as sour grapes. In so far as throwing the ball the Swans are experts at this technique and the Dogs are but observant apprentices.

  7. I’ve heard no mention of daylight saving, so I looked it up. It starts tonight 2:00AM –> 3:00AM. this is a 71 hour weekend, but we get the our back in the early hours of April 3.

  8. Well, there you have it. Stuart Roberts fraternises with and advises homophobic Ugandan witch doctors. Him big Watoto Divine Warrior God.
    See the SMH for the details.
    Maybe he also has spiritual connections with New Guinea, given his Cargo Cult beliefs while collecting Chinese Rolexes and assorted donations for the LNP.
    And you all wondered why he holds Turnbull spellbound.

  9. Honestly, if this wasn’t Australia, and if it wasn’t about the Liberals and Nationals, you’d think I was making it all up.

  10. Morning all. Well done Bulldogs! Wonderful to see Luke Beveridge include injurred captain Bob Murphy in the presentation too. Leadership from the top.

    Not much political news, so I just note that this utter drivel from Chris Uhlman is still up on the ABC website, two days after we know the SA blackout was not caused by renewable power. Aunty, Chris, your prejudice is showing.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-29/rushing-to-renewables-risks-sector's-reputation:-uhlmann/7888290

    Have a good day all.

  11. Before I go, there is this sad story about links between coalition MP Stuart Roberts and an anti-gay Ugandan “church”. Blessed are the bigots.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-mp-stuart-roberts-close-ties-to-antigay-african-church-20160930-grsgi8.html
    Between Roberts, Abbott and too many others, the reason we cannot pass ME law is clear: our parliament (the Liberal party especially) is dominated by right wing religious fundamentalists who are completely unrepresentative of the majority of church goers, let alone our society.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ross Fitzgerald says the destabilisation of Turnbull is starting. Well worth reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-destabilisation-of-malcolm-turnbull-is-starting-20160930-grsqe7.html
    Lenore Taylor nails it on the SA blackouts reactions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/01/the-lights-go-out-in-sa-and-turnbull-flicks-the-switch-to-peak-stupid
    Mark Kenny with his thoughts on the US election.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/in-the-case-of-trump-v-clinton-whos-the-real-outsider-20160930-grsd30.html
    Jacqui Maley says that politics has become an arms race of outrageousness and the narcissists are winning. One to read and think about.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/donald-trump-has-turned-politics-into-an-arms-race-of-outrageousness–and-the-narcissists-are-winning-20160929-grrjck.html
    Trump himself has appeared in a soft-core porn video.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/10/01/trump-supporters-really-dont-care-about-his-cameo-in-a-playboy/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    The guy is a shocker!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/10/01/donald-trump-sex-tape/
    Now he retreats from his statement about respecting the result of the November election.
    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/1/1576709/-Trump-on-supporting-the-results-of-the-November-election-We-re-going-to-see-what-happens
    MUST WATCH! An hilarious parody of the debate.
    http://americablog.com/2016/09/brilliant-hilarious-parody-trump-1st-presidential-debate.html
    Veteran Bob Schieffer shows how it’s done with respect to interviewing a political player.
    http://americablog.com/2016/09/cbs-bob-schieffer-grills-trump-surrogate-like-journalist.html
    Stuart Robert – what a dill. His bad political times continue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-mp-stuart-roberts-close-ties-to-antigay-african-church-20160930-grsgi8.html

  13. Section 2 . . .

    Health care is our newest booming industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-care-boom-20160928-grqqzv.html
    But the aged care industry is in a downward spiral. It’s quite a woirry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/agedcare-industry-in-a-downward-spiral-20160930-grs6aw.html
    Oh so true. The effect of bonuses on leading to suboptimal outcomes is a blight on business.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/90-cents-in-every-dollar-of-executive-performance-pay-is-for-luck-not-good-management-study-20161001-grsuoo.html
    What hope do first home buyers in Sydney have?
    http://www.domain.com.au/news/developer-destroys-young-couples-dreams-as-ryde-home-sells-for-230000-over-reserve-20161001-grsvrv/
    Trump defends his 3 am Tweet, saying he’s not an insomniac. I think insomnia is the LEAST of his problems.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-at-all-hours-donald-trump-wakens-a-twitter-fury-20161001-grstxg.html
    Caroline Wilson has written a good piece on the AFL grand final.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-grand-final-2016–a-long-time-coming-but-hope-and-heart-win-20161001-grt0rq.html
    Dutton spends up big time on spin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-spends-8-million-on-spin-doctor-army-20160901-gr6oas.html
    Comedian Kitty Flanagan has written a good article about the difficulty of assimilation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/assimilation-wont-happen-overnight-but-it-will-happen-just-like-pantene-20160930-grsed6.html
    Peter FitzSimons says time’s up for climate change deniers. and for the SSM plebiscite! He also has a great quote from Jerry Springer – “Hillary Clinton belongs in the White House. Donald Trump belongs on my show.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/climate-change-deniers-listen-up-your-end-is-nigh-20160930-grsejk.html
    My nephew was the police officer who was the first responder to this horrific crime.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/police-investigating-suspicious-death-of-woman-in-adelaides-north-east/news-story/0dedfbf96bda6e90bd954f1cb44d2a87

  14. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Exactly!!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/companies/meet-the-factory-workers-in-thailand-that-will-take-our-jobs-once-australias-car-manufacturing-industry-closes/news-story/576545b39f5ce34f014defcce8135da5

    Matt Golding with Stuart Robert.

    David Pope on the post-blackout investigations.

    And Pope celebrates the Bulldogs’ great win.

    Mark Knight farewells Dennis Cometti.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2e4bf7a0e5aba6c01b65ad280579d8a6?width=1024

  15. Stuart Robert’s defense of his association with the Watoto Pentecostal Church in Uganda is pathetic.

    ‘I was only there to build houses for the Orphaned kiddies!’

    Why doesn’t he contribute his skills to building houses for the Homeless in general, or Homeless Domestic Violence sufferers and their children in Australia then!?!

    Because our laws wouldn’t allow them to be infiltrated by the Lame Gay Churchy Losers to brainwash the inhabitants, that’s why!

    Stuart Robert has to go. If Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t sack him then we know he is Prime Minister in name only.

  16. And I bet, IF she even gets asked about Robert by the craven Cassidy on Insiders today,
    Julie ‘The Queen of the Dermal Face Fillers’ Bishop will go…Because. Religion…Because. Orphaned Kiddies. And the craven Cassidy will let her get away with it.

  17. CTar1,
    What is there left to sack him from?

    The Liberal Party.

    They forced Julia Gillard to advise Craig Thomson that he should resign from the Labor Party and go to the Cross Benches. Why isn’t the same standard being used for Stuart Robert?

  18. Good Morning

    I agree with BW last night about the umpires. BW and I are not alone. See Greg Jericho’s timeline for comment on umpires.

    Both are great teams. The score was close and it was a great game that did not deserve to be spoiled by bad umpiring.

    The score only blew out at the end as the Swans stopped playing to win as they knew they could not win. As such the score at the end is misleading. There is only so much motivation you can do when the umpiring decisions are going against you in such a fashion.

    You only have to look at the umpiring throughout the year to see. That. I remember when the umpires favoured the Swans is a match this year. I think it was Collingwood they were playing but I am not sure. The umpiring was just as bad in that game.

    There is a reason the Olympics gets umpires from other countries to be the umpire. Less chance of bias. With all the underdog fairy tale stories especially in Melbourne that has to have an effect on how the umpires view the teams. An unconscious bias sets in.

    I know the sore loser tag is used a lot. However if you are objective the stats do not lie.
    The history during Home and Away games in the regular season does not lie.

    The AFL has a major umpire problem that needs to be fixed. First they have to decide to apply the rules to all the games equally including the finals and grand final.
    Then they have to look at how to do their best to take out bias deliberate or not.

  19. Cat

    The Liberals are using AFL umpire standards?

    Jokes aside. Hypocrisy is the LNP DNA and the Canberra press too.

    While I agree with BB that Murphy does the media as if it does not apply to her at least she does write about the reality of the bubble the “insiders” live in.

  20. Frydenburg not doing well on Agenda by the looks of it.

    SamDickfos: Frydenberg: If you rely more on these interconnectors and they go down then this is exactly the problem we’re talking about. #agenda #auspol

  21. Schadenfreude George ‏@GeorgeBludger · 9h9 hours ago

    A little birdie has told me a huge numbr of complaints have come through at the ABC over dipstick Uhlmann’s bullshit reporting of #sablackout

  22. SamDickfos: Frydenberg: The Victorian Premier through a spokesman said Hazelwood’s closure won’t impact energy supply. Of course it will. #agenda

  23. 😆

    Michelle Robertson ‏@shellzzz · 6m6 minutes ago

    It’s very windy in Melbourne today, I hope our renewables don’t go rogue
    #Auspol

  24. SamDickfos: Frydenberg: Malcolm Turnbull has brought home the reality of the fallacy of Labor’s renewable energy target. #agenda #auspol

    They really do live in a bubble. Imagine thinking you can get away with that when polls show the public accepts the science

  25. …the Baird government prepares to introduce a controversial Biodiversity Conservation Act to NSW Parliament this month.

    The Royal Zoological Society of NSW has warned that removing the licence will cause the neglect of three-quarters of protected fauna in NSW and “will almost certainly miss the species that are sliding towards threatened status”.

    “The approach suggested by the Baird government beggars belief, not only do they remove protections for killing native animals, they will also stop keeping records of how many are killed.”

    The royal society said the proposed law won’t take into account the need to manage animals and birds flocking to an area with water in times of drought, for example.

    Species to be exempt from offences relating to harming animals will include sulphur crested cockatoos, galahs, purple swamp hens, ravens and crows. However a full list of exempt animals and birds is not provided.

    And the real kicker: encourage ignorance.

    Harming a native animal during land clearing will also no longer be an offence if the property owner was unaware of the animal.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/baird-government-declares-open-season-on-native-animals-20161001-grsv5m.html

  26. What the Roberts story tells us is the standard the LNP are not walking by.

    I think even GG will agree that we can say with the likes of Senator Bernadi Christensen and Roberts being accepted in the party makes the LNP your anti gay party.

  27. To “Liberals”, the environment only has value as a place for their developer mates to “develop”, farmer mates to clear, mining mates to dig up and logging mates to log. It can’t be allowed to get in the way of any mate making money.

  28. One good thing that comes out of the Big SA Darkness is that from now on, every time Uhlmann spouts his biased pro Liberal monologues, he can be dismissed by simply referring to his stupidity as the pratt who believe renewable energy blows over transmission towers.

  29. rickygervais: I believe I am a god. Please respect my belief. Don’t question it. Just do as I say. Otherwise you’re being disrespectful.

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