Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The only pollster currently in the game finds Labor retaining its modest post-election, and finds opinion finely balanced on superannuation reform and nominating Kevin Rudd for United Nations Secretary-General.

Essential Research, which is still the only polling series back in the game after the election, records Labor maintaining a 52-48 lead in the latest reading of its fortnightly rolling average, with primary votes also unchanged at Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 10% and Nick Xenophon Team 4%. Also featured:

• Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

• Thirty-seven per cent said Tony Abbott should resign from parliament; 25% that he should be given a ministry; and 21% that he should remain on the back bench. A similar question in March found 47% saying he should quit at the looming election, with 18% saying he should be given a ministry and 15% that he should remain on the back bench.

• Capping after-tax super contributions backdated at $500,000 recorded 29% approval and 34% disapproval.

• A question on groups that would be better and worse off under the re-elected Coalition government returned the usual results, with large companies and the high-income earners expected to do very well indeed, small businesses somewhat less well but still net positive, and various categories of struggler expected to do poorly.

• As it does on a semi-regular basis, the pollster asked questions on trust in various media outlets. However, this asked specifically on reportage of the federal election campaign, dropped separate questions for the news and current affairs as distinction from talkback programming of “ABC radio” and “commercial radio”, and in the case of the newspapers, dropped the normal proviso that respondents be be a readers of the paper in question to qualify for inclusion. This led to much lower levels of trust being recorded for the newspapers across the board, while the radio results split the difference between the higher results that are normally recorded for news and current affairs, and the lower results for talkback. As far as relativities are concerned, the results as before find television the most trusted medium, public broadcasters favoured over commercial ones. However, The Australian did not perform significantly better than News Corporation tabloids, as it has usually done in the past, whereas the Fairfax papers continued to record somewhat higher levels of trust than News Corporation ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,123 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. confessions @ #2696 Monday, August 8, 2016 at 10:38 am

    They will also release your linked information – names and all – for ‘research’ purposes.

    That is not my understanding. I understood the de-identified linked data would be released to researchers. Not information that identifies individuals.

    I just checked and you are correct. Only ‘anonymized’ versions of names will be released. However, your address and date of birth is sufficient to uniquely identify you.

  12. Nicole

    I fully agree with your comment about Gittens’ article. It is the best one I have ever seen from him. Totally nails it.

    It’s not hard to understand why the tide is on its way out for the Liberal party. Its ideology just doesn’t cut the mustard any more. They will be soundly beaten at the next election IMO.

  15. Nicole
    After a few minutes your gravatar in any blog associated with wordpress will change. You can change with gravatar as often as you like.
    Bye

  16. Briefly,
    The problem with the Japanese Economy is the sort of society they have spent decades encouraging.
    * Savers not Consumers where the demography bulges the most. Old people don’t buy much.
    * Which leads inexorably to Problem #2. There are not enough young people who want to spend their money in Japan.
    * Problem #3 is one which they cannot do much about, their Physical Geography. Much of the land mass of the Japanese Islands are uninhabitable and so land for housing is at a premium and so very expensive. So the young people need to put their resources into their accommodation. So they save and don’t consume!

    A very vicious circle.

  18. Morning all
    Some comments on the Olympic coverage… (Disclaimer: I have really no interest in the games but have an interest in the media coverage)
    – Channel 7 are being roundly criticised for the quality of their coverage from Rio back to Australia mainly along the lines of technical gliches and other gremlins
    – If you are in the country like I am and have poor internet coverage or no access to digital radio then forget the ABC. The balance of their coverage is via their online apps and digital radio with only minimal coverage via local radio which is I think a disgrace. You are either providing a full coverage or not at all.
    It will be very interesting to see the ratings in the coming days both on radio and FTA TV.

  20. Did a Labor premier sabotage his party during the federal election?

    It is one of the great mysteries of the 2016 federal election: why did Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews force a confrontation in the Country Fire Authority dispute, creating a political gift for Malcolm Turnbull?

    Even members of Andrews’ own cabinet don’t know why Andrews decided to bring it to a head in June after negotiations slogged along for three years.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/did-a-labor-premier-sabotage-his-party-during-the-federal-election-20160808-gqnb5b#ixzz4GhRp80qD
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  21. Confessions

    I also have not received any information. Now I have not been to the letter box for a while but still!!!

  24. From what I have seen and heard of the Olympic coverage, ABC radio in Sydney is all over it (Aussie, Aussie Aussie GOLD!) and 7 is its usual jingoistic self, but could be worse (Channel 9).
    Plus, they all have developed a seemingly insatiable need to interview the parents of the athletes, who of course all say the same sort of things.

    I’m waiting for one of them to say that Janelle’s become a self-obsessed bore who’s put the family’s life on hold for the sake of her overwhelming ambition, and we’re sick to death of her. Not going to happen of course, because they’re all so proud, naturally.

  25. Morning all,
    I received my Census papers last week (found under the doormat when I returned home after a few days staying at my folks in Kyneton)
    I decided to complete the census online on Saturday rather than wait until Tuesday evening to complete it.
    Some questions I have about some of the questions asked (I read the entire booklet)
    Q.6. What is the person’s present marital status? The options include Never Married, Widowed; Divorced; Separated but not divorced; Married. What about Single? My only option was Never Married. What about Single? Surely you can be single but never married?
    Q,19, Religion, No option for Atheists (which I am one)… so do I place this under No religion or Other (please specify?)
    Q.46. Did the person actively look for work. The options were Yes No (as in FT work.PT work) but not “I was looking for full time and part time work”
    Pretty poor effort from the ABS

  26. I caught the tail end of a conversation this morning between Neil Mitchell and (presumably) someone high up in the banking sector (don’t know which bank). Whoever he was, he was full of praise for Turnbull’s yearly tummy tickle, totally supportive. But when he was questioned as to whether the banking scandals over the past few years had led to more scrutiny being applied he dismissed the notion out of hand.

    All of which leads me to two conclusions:

    1. Turnbull’s yearly chats are nothing but a con and the banks know it.

    2. What the bastards really need is what Shorten will give them. A royal commission. Only then will we find out what they have really been up to.

  28. Steven:

    And if you are a same sex couple who legally married in another country, would you put married, or something else because SSM isn’t legal in Australia?

  29. @DTT
    I think you made a comment yesterday about PHON not just pulling votes from the LNP. I’ve been having a look at the raw dump of senate prefs for Victoria, and thought I’d check the PHON vote. I’ve not had time to work out how to filter out the informal votes so this is a raw dump of % of major party voters that included PHON as a preference in spots 2-6 ATL:
    ALP: 9.38% (1.44% PHON #2)
    LNP: 9.79% (1.81% PHON #2)
    GRN: 1.94% (0.33% PHON #2)

    Of those who put PHON at #1 ATL, major party prefs in positions 2-6 broke:
    ALP: 27.56% , (6.71% ALP #2)
    LNP: 27.14% (8.65% LNP #2)
    GRN: 12.48% (1.8% GRN #2)

  30. “I’d gladly take “Another wasted three years” as opposed to what this mob would want to do if they could.”

    Barney in Saigon, Confessions, Nicole..

    ..three words: National Broadband Network..

    BB..

    You can put your house on 4C getting “Labor to blame” in at some (several) point(s) during their Lib expose tonight. Truffles will be judged as more sinned against than sinner .. & given time to finally emerge from his chrysalis as the majestic magnificence he ROOLLY ..TROOLY IS>>..

  32. ‘Truffles will be judged as more sinned against than sinner .. & given time to finally emerge from his chrysalis as the majestic magnificence he ROOLLY ..TROOLY IS>>..’

    Yes, this is the line that they will most probably adopt…Probably be all the fault of those damn moderates. Que Tony the terrible.

  34. C@t,

    Speaking of Japan and deflation, I wonder if aomething similar is happening here. Except that instead of lack of land, we have high housing prices driven by a failure to invest in high speed rail. And I’m not just talking Sydney to other cities, I’m talking within Sydney itself.

  35. It makes sense though that when people are struggling to pay for housing, other goods and services will have a lower priority and this deflate

  36. ‘And I’m not just talking Sydney to other cities, I’m talking within Sydney itself.’

    As I boarded the 40+ year-old train to the city this morning, packed to the rafters and still half a dozen stations to the city, I was musing on the inability of successive governments to deliver adequate services.
    Of course Baird is by far the worst, as he promotes development minus the required infrastructure to the benefit of his developer. mates.

  37. Cud Chewer,
    I saw an interesting piece the other week about Gen Y in Australia, wherein those interviewed stated that because Housing was so unaffordable for them these days they have given up saving for the deposit for a home and so are spending their earnings on holidays and the good life instead.

  38. Adrian,
    As you probably well remember it was the Carr Labor State Government of NSW which was the last one to deliver upgraded train rolling stock. Mainly it went to the Inter City routes and the poor old Inner City commuters got the hand-me-downs. : )

  40. Bakunin

    Wow!!
    Thanks very much. That is really interesting. So yes ON is as much a labor nibble as an LNP nibble. i suspect it will be the same in Qld

  41. Coles do a home delivery service.
    Last Saturday I received gratis a small pack of cat food. Next week I may get the cat to go with it.
    The delivery folk usually have an electronic device which one signs as having received the goods. When new the device comes with a stylus with which to sign and the stylus is attached with a cord. Over time the cord mostly has disappeared and the stylus usually gone to join it. Last Saturday the device was absent and the driver had a plastic case in which nestled the printed order form which I duly signed. I have asked about their trucks and have been told that Newcastle gets the cast offs from Sydney which accounts for breakdowns I suppose. In a true conservative society I expect that smaller centres serviced by Colesworths the drivers will need to look after the horse and cart as well. I have not been to Sydney for many, many years although If I were to do so I would probably be able to travel by train on rolling stock which was not new on my last visit. 🙂

  42. DTT

    In reference to Malcolm Roberts.

    “The way to get people like that on side is to treat them as knowledgeable and wise”

    I’m not sure what you mean by the catch-all phrase “people like that”. Are you aware of some diagnosis for Malcolm Roberts.

    People can only be judged by their words and actions. From that we glean their values, intelligence, personality, mental state etc etc, as best we can, in the absence of any formal, professional diagnosis.

    In his case he has shown clearly that he is narcissistic, over-confident, domineering, passive aggressive in the extreme and highly competitive.

    These may or may not be signs that he has a personality disorder, or a mental illness, or both.

    He believes “they” (the banks and the UN mainly) are out to exploit us all …… they may be ….. but his evidence is based on totally irrational considerations (carbon dioxide is always benign; nothing man has done has harmed the atmosphere) to the extent that he is in major denial, or delusional.

    Either way, whatever Kroger or anyone else does to win him over, they will lose.

    Your suggestion is akin to saying that one can simply use appropriate language and social intercourse to convince a sociopath to behave as an adjusted person.

    It won’t happen. The circus will be very interesting to watch as it gets into full swing.

    And BTW the shameful MSM has already seen that Roberts is so unpredictable as to be exciting to viewers, and they are already playing a major and unconscionable role in bringing on the circus to attract audiences. He has done more major I/Vs than any other pollie in the past 4 days …. every channel including SBS.

  43. Last week, as I trundled home on a 40 year old train in the rain, I watched with interest as rain came down through the light fittings to the seat below. Nobody else seemed to notice, as it wasn’t appearing on their phone’s screen

  44. ‘And BTW the shameful MSM has already seen that Roberts is so unpredictable as to be exciting to viewers, and they are already playing a major and unconscionable role in bringing on the circus to attract audiences. He has done more major I/Vs than any other pollie in the past 4 days …. every channel including SBS.’

    So true. I am waiting for a love-in with Leigh Sales to come, now that she is unfortunately back from leave.

  45. There was an interesting interview on ABC radio this morning with some lady from an Australian Christian group, complaining that no religion is equivalent to ‘none of the above’ in multiple choice questions (which i am not sure that it is) and that it should therefore be at the bottom of the list instead of the top; but she did make one valid point: there are many christian groups not accommodated in the list and she suggested it should be set out as Christian, Moslem, Budhist with a number of sub categories – e.g Catholic, Anglican, or Suni, Shia, Sufi etc., with each major category having an ‘other’ as the last on the list [to be filled in].

    This seemed a good idea to me. They could still put no religion (even with subgroup athiest, antitheist etc) at the top of the list as it is probably the main category with the most “adherents”.

  47. Briefly
    Monday, August 8, 2016 at 11:04 am
    Bad luck about the post Mari. I reckon you’re likely to have another shot at it before long though… -:)

    I think and hope you are right, hope Rob Oakeshott stands again, will volunteer to help him

  49. Adrian @ 12:54; i agree, he is getting far too much air time by the MSM.
    It is the ‘Trump’ effect in play here.
    Unfortunatley our interviewers do not have the ‘smarts’ to successfully challenge such people.
    If you want to see how a good interview could play out, watch Joy Read on MSNBC’s AM Joy, latest edition; where she continually challenges a Trump supporter’s economic assumptions from a genuine knowledge of the actual facts.

  50. @DTT
    Yes, QLD is similar.
    1 ATL to Majors, with PHON in 2 – 6:
    ALP: 23.66%, 5.68% PHON #2
    LNP: 23.54%, 6.41% PHON #2
    GRN: 6.12%, 1.39% PHON #2

    1 ATL to PHON, prefs 2-6 to majors
    ALP: 29.00%, 7.7% #2
    LNP: 31.76% , 9.9% #2
    GRN: 12.89%, 2.2% #2

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