Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The only pollster currently in the game finds Labor retaining its modest post-election, and finds opinion finely balanced on superannuation reform and nominating Kevin Rudd for United Nations Secretary-General.

Essential Research, which is still the only polling series back in the game after the election, records Labor maintaining a 52-48 lead in the latest reading of its fortnightly rolling average, with primary votes also unchanged at Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 10% and Nick Xenophon Team 4%. Also featured:

• Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

• Thirty-seven per cent said Tony Abbott should resign from parliament; 25% that he should be given a ministry; and 21% that he should remain on the back bench. A similar question in March found 47% saying he should quit at the looming election, with 18% saying he should be given a ministry and 15% that he should remain on the back bench.

• Capping after-tax super contributions backdated at $500,000 recorded 29% approval and 34% disapproval.

• A question on groups that would be better and worse off under the re-elected Coalition government returned the usual results, with large companies and the high-income earners expected to do very well indeed, small businesses somewhat less well but still net positive, and various categories of struggler expected to do poorly.

• As it does on a semi-regular basis, the pollster asked questions on trust in various media outlets. However, this asked specifically on reportage of the federal election campaign, dropped separate questions for the news and current affairs as distinction from talkback programming of “ABC radio” and “commercial radio”, and in the case of the newspapers, dropped the normal proviso that respondents be be a readers of the paper in question to qualify for inclusion. This led to much lower levels of trust being recorded for the newspapers across the board, while the radio results split the difference between the higher results that are normally recorded for news and current affairs, and the lower results for talkback. As far as relativities are concerned, the results as before find television the most trusted medium, public broadcasters favoured over commercial ones. However, The Australian did not perform significantly better than News Corporation tabloids, as it has usually done in the past, whereas the Fairfax papers continued to record somewhat higher levels of trust than News Corporation ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,123 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. SK

    I got my notice from ABS this morning.

    A week after my nephew and Bilko said they got theirs.

    I was planning to send them an email if I didn’t get something today.

  2. Confessions
    Yes. I am surprised that Cullerton was not required to sign some form of document confirming that he was eligible to be a Senate candidate. If he did so, was it filled it out correctly?

  3. This write up of the US Greens Convention is the first I’ve seen, and has some parallels withour local version

    “It’s easy to make fun of the Green Party — maybe too easy. They don’t try to make it hard. At the convention, Green Party delegates shared spaces with baffled U of H undergrads and queued with them for the McDonald’s in the food court. Much of what took place at this week’s convention alternated from a cringe-inducing earnestness about the political process — the convention’s slogan was “Houston, we have a solution,” offering a green future to a city with 575 miles of freeways that celebrates oil tanks with murals that depict moments from the Texas War of Independence — to the sort of self-unaware kitsch that might play in a Tim & Eric sketch.
    Story Continued Below

    The talent show, a keynote event and fundraiser the night before the nomination of presidential nominee Jill Stein and vice presidential nominee Ajamu Baraka, is a great example. Here is a party that aims to be taken seriously, whose new narrative centers on the theory that 2016 is a year of Green Party emergence. And here are their senior members, listening to open-mic poetry with lines like “Isis is a goddess, not a terrorist” and “We are gonna Banksy the big banks, see?” and ukulele songs about the unimportance of money and the comparative importance of dancing. The night ended with an off-key group karaoke version of “We are the World,” but with new lyrics: “We’re not going to go with Trump or Hill-ar-y,” those on stage sang, as the audience waved their hands wildly back and forth.”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/what-if-the-green-party-stopped-being-kooky-and-started-getting-real-214149#ixzz4GhxscOWk
    Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

  4. These US Greens would welcome Malcolm-Ieaun: with open arms

    “There was a dichotomy at the Green convention. There are a lot of people that could be — affectionately or unaffectionately — referred to as kooks. The kook-ism is what most people know the party for. Stein hasn’t gone out of her way to help that reputation, with statements about vaccines and the dangers of wireless internet. Julian Assange spoke to the convention on a livestream, from the Ecuadorean embassy where he’s avoiding rape charges, to express his opinion that the choice between Trump and Clinton was like a choice between “cholera and gonorrhea.” The party’s vice presidential nominee, Ajamu Baraka, has a long history of fringe statements and beliefs, like his opinion that the Malaysian airliner shot down over Ukraine looked like a “false flag” operation.”

  5. And the local NSW Greens are imploding… From Crikey newsletter


    A court battle over the acrimonious departure of Greens NSW campaign director Carole Medcalf over allegations of serious misconduct threatens to engulf the preselection battle to fill the NSW Parliament vacancy left by the late John Kaye.

    One of the preferred candidates of the so-called “Eastern bloc”, James Ryan, has been named in explosive new court documents as a key player in an employment dispute brought against the party by the former campaign director.

    Medcalf and the NSW Greens agreed in May of this year that she would leave the organisation in late June. However, the Greens terminated her employment just 12 days after the agreement was signed and booted her out at the end of May, accusing her of “serious misconduct”.

    Medcalf was hired in 2014 to bring professional standards and corporate governance to the party as its campaign director. Her termination caused long-time party treasurer Chris Harris and four other committee of management officials to quit the party in protest. Multiple Greens sources close to the matter have told Crikey that the culture within the committee of management was, and is believed to still be, “incredibly toxic”.

  6. I’m sure Di Natalie will be able to sort out the NSW Greens, although it appears the ex-Trotsky clique are retaining power (somewhat red-faced?)

    “Medcalf’s falling out with the Greens (and Ryan) dates back to at least October 2014, when Medcalf began raising concerns about Ryan — one of the key candidates in the NSW Greens preselection contest — when he was employed as the party’s planning and environmental law officer.

    Medcalf found that Ryan was “under-performing” and needed greater supervision, but according to the statement of claim, when this matter was brought to Greenland and another Greens official, Astrid O’Neill, Medcalf claims she was told that Ryan was a “valued member of staff” who was expected to achieve success in the Greens, and that “unique and alternative ways of operating outside traditional management structures” would have to be put in place to allow Ryan to work.

    Medcalf alleges in the claim that Ryan failed to provide monthly reports on his performance and his work standard continued at the same level until October 2015, when he applied for the position of campaign co-ordinator for the NSW Greens. Ryan was appointed to the position by a panel of three, including Greenland and Rhiannon.

    According to the statement of claim, Ryan was given two staff, but one quit in February this year, alleging that Ryan failed to delegate tasks properly or communicate election plans or strategy to his staff. Metcalf claims that once Ryan was appointed into the position, she was ostracised and unable to properly perform her job. Medcalf alleges that Ryan and Greenland set up an email list string without her included, and in that string, plans were developed for how Medcalf’s employment was going to be terminated.

    When Medcalf was fired, she claims she had no opportunity to address the claims that led to her being fired, and therefore the termination was unlawful. She alleges that the actual purpose of her firing was to remove her from the position, avoid having to pay the money in the deed, and to allow Greenland and Ryan to “go on spending monies from the Greens’ election reserve, without having to provide any accounting” to her to ensure the money was being spent properly.

    Greenland told Crikey that Medcalf’s claims were “ludicrous”.

  7. @ Sprocket – you don’t think “the NSW Greens are imploding” is just a teensy bit sensationalist, when it is followed up by an incredibly dull slab of text that is commonplace in all NSW parties?

  8. confessions @ #2728 Monday, August 8, 2016 at 11:36 am

    Steven:
    And if you are a same sex couple who legally married in another country, would you put married, or something else because SSM isn’t legal in Australia?

    No, that was the second addition Howard put in the marriage act.
    Before the change the Act recognised all legal marriages performed outside Australia now we don’t.

  9. Scott

    You are absolutely correct, and the bastardisation which occurs in Sussex St, for example, would make your hair curl. The Liberal Party will be airing it’s dirty linen tonight.

    My point is simply that the Greens claim they are so much better than the ‘old parties’ and are all altrustic, wanting to save the planet. Perhaps not?

  10. Sprocket_

    I’m sure Di Natalie will be able to sort out the NSW Greens, although it appears the ex-Trotsky clique are retaining power

    His ‘cunning plan’ will be to send in the Maoists to sort the Trots out.

  11. @ Sprocket – fair enough.

    When I think a party ‘imploding’ I think Democrats, One Nation, Palmer United. i.e. “they will either not exist at the next election, or they will get <10% the vote they did the previous time."

  12. Cullerton was probably not eligible to be a candidate but it is not up to the AEC to investigate the truth of his claims on his application form. It is up to others to challenge the claims in a court of law.

  13. I’m starting to wonder whether Brandis was involved in the ABS decision to retain all names in the census data collection. It seems bit strange that the first time this has happened is during Brandis’ term as AG.

    Brandis has consistently sought greater powers to collect and use information on all Australians. What better way to collect data on everybody than via the census? For example, it would be simple to cross match names and addresses with those who specified “Muslim” under religion. This would create a massive database available to the security agencies, police and Dutton’s border force.

  14. Scott Bales,
    Maybe you have caught up with it, or maybe you haven’t, but the ABC just did a long report from Perth about the Grylls challenge to Redman and the essence of it was that the WA Nationals felt that they would lose seats in the upcoming election, and the election itself, if they didn’t replace Redman with Grylls, who all concerned believe is better at ‘explaining’ to the electorate all the lovely successes that the WA Nats have brought to their patch.

    However, Grylls has said that he will only return on the condition that Emperor Colin is rolled and replaced with Dean Nalder or the Corrections Minister, whose name I cannot recall.

    So, if Grylls comes back, Colin is for the tumbrils.

    Expect fireworks. Have popcorn at the ready. : )

  15. Hal Greenland and Lee Rhiannon need to step down from positions of influence in The Greens. Or else there will be a big, Green hole in NSW where there should be MPs, sooner rather than later.

    I detect a waning enthusiasm for The Greens in this State as people get fed up with The Greens’ NSW antics.

  16. The Chinese are not happy with the flags being used in Rio.

    Chinese broadcaster CCTV has also complained about the Chinese flags that were used over the weekend during ceremonies at the Rio games. The small stars on the Chinese flag are supposed to all point toward the flag’s large star, but at the Rio games, the flags have small stars all pointing upward.

    “The national flag is the symbol of a country. No mistakes are allowed!” CCTV declared.

    To make matters worse, it was later revealed by Chinese media that the flags were manufactured in China.

    Hilarious!!

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/aug/08/china-says-australia-is-on-fringes-of-civilisation-after-swimmer-mack-horton-attacks-sun-yang

  17. [
    booleanbach
    Monday, August 8, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    The Greens in the US are apparently anti-vaxers.
    Not a vote winning strategy.
    ]
    Handing out how to votes cards last election; I had anti-vaxers to the left of me and anti-vaxers to the right. Is the labor party the last political party to believe in science?

  18. Documents immigration is fighting to keep secret accidentally released

    Documents about asylum-seeker boat turnbacks, which the government is arguing must be kept secret for national security reasons, have been accidentally handed to Guardian Australia by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/08/documents-immigration-secret-asylum-seeker-boats-accidentally-released-guardian-australia

  19. citizen @ #2769 Monday, August 8, 2016 at 2:26 pm

    I’m starting to wonder whether Brandis was involved in the ABS decision to retain all names in the census data collection. It seems bit strange that the first time this has happened is during Brandis’ term as AG.
    Brandis has consistently sought greater powers to collect and use information on all Australians. What better way to collect data on everybody than via the census? For example, it would be simple to cross match names and addresses with those who specified “Muslim” under religion. This would create a massive database available to the security agencies, police and Dutton’s border force.

    Yes, I made this point a few days ago. Given the recent history of governments turning their supposedly “private” census information over to security agencies, then anyone who admits to being a follower of Islam, or who leaves that question blank but admits to being born in an Islamic country, has rocks in their head.

  20. phoenixred @ #2776 Monday, August 8, 2016 at 2:50 pm

    Documents immigration is fighting to keep secret accidentally released
    Documents about asylum-seeker boat turnbacks, which the government is arguing must be kept secret for national security reasons, have been accidentally handed to Guardian Australia by the Department of Immigration and Border Protection.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/08/documents-immigration-secret-asylum-seeker-boats-accidentally-released-guardian-australia

    Darn, I was hoping to get some details today but still we must wait.
    Kinda funny (cannot think of the appropriate word) how they are arguing how important it is to keep them secret but inadvertently handed them over.

  21. Frednk

    Is the labor party the last political party to believe in science?

    Science, like facts, have a left-wing bias.

  22. This New York Times article applies also to Australia:

    Think tanks, which position themselves as “universities without students,” have power in government policy debates because they are seen as researchers independent of moneyed interests. But in the chase for funds, think tanks are pushing agendas important to corporate donors, at times blurring the line between researchers and lobbyists. And they are doing so while reaping the benefits of their tax-exempt status, sometimes without disclosing their connections to corporate interests.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/us/politics/think-tanks-research-and-corporate-lobbying.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

  23. Voting for the Greens in the US is an even bigger waste of a vote than voting for the Greens in Australia.
    What a bunch of laughable idiots.
    You know you are representing the loony fringe extreme left when even Bernie Sanders doesn’t want anything to do with you.
    Any political leader who so openly criticises vaccinations should be treated as an inconsequential moron just like Jill Stein is.
    And she calls herself a doctor.
    That woman is even more batshit crazy than Trump.

  24. I wouldn’t be so quick to assume Di Natale will be able to sort out the NSW Greens. Since he became leader he’s been trying to get rid of Rhiannon in favour of generational change, but hasn’t been able to do even that.

  25. Rhiannon said the other day in response to St Bob’s call for her to go “that she had been democratically elected and was still younger then when Bob retired from politics”.

    Doesn’t sound like she plans on leaving anytime soon.

  26. The PHON to ALP is going to be a little over inflated in QLD (they had exclusively ALP pref cards instead of Split Ticket in Wyatt Roys former seat)

  27. Think the north and the poor caused Brexit? Think again

    The prevailing assumption is that the vote was one in the eye for metropolitan elites, and that the white working classes, the disenfranchised and unheeded, the voters hidden on estates, had finally given a message to the Westminster bubble that knew nothing and cared less about their concerns.

    In fact, most leave voters were in the south: the south-east, south-west – indeed the entire south apart from London voted leave.

    …most leave voters are middle class, or at least were of the generation whose housing and pension windfalls put them squarely in the category of wealth.

    …the very most we can say is that leave had some popularity with the disaffected and the disenfranchised; but it was not limited to that group, and the people who swung the vote were affluent, older southerners.

    Instead, we’ve taken it as a kicking-off point that the Brexit vote was won by a council estate in Bolton.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/07/north-poor-brexit-myths

  28. @Colton
    I’m hoping people don’t take Australian election advice from you since you don’t appear to understand preferential voting (that or you’re being deliberately deceitful with your wasted vote rhetoric).

  29. Kenny’s article gets off to s surprisingly good start:

    ‘David Leyonhjelm is a boorish, supercilious know-all with the empathy of a besser block.’

    But you have to ask why he isn’t quite so frank when discussing the personal attributes of certain LNP members.

  30. Elaugaufein,

    Yes, I fully understand how the system works. Thats why I made the statement that a vote for the Greens in the US is an even bigger waste of a vote than voting Greens here in Australia.

    Happy that my comment triggered you enough to make a comment though.

  31. Larceny……
    [The charges relate to the alleged theft of a $7.50 key from a tow truck driver who was trying to repossess a car he was leasing….. A warrant was issued for his arrest earlier this year.. after he failed to show up to court… he was convicted in his absence.]

  32. Elaugaufein.

    So to clarify. Yes I think a vote for the greens in Australia is a complete waste of your vote however it is a much bigger waste in the US where they do not have proportional representation. Simple really.
    If you had of read my original post more carefully you may of been able to comprehend what I was saying.
    Cheers.

  33. Dave:

    The time for Rhiannon to go was before the election which is what RDN was trying to achieve. I fear she’ll have to be blasted out of her Senate seat.

  34. As promised:
    Anyhow, I came across something recently that has prompted me to pose the following questions:

    Does the Govt invest taxpayer funds held in trust, into shares in publicly listed companies? (Like a bank or superannuation fund might)

    If so, is it right that they should do this?

    Should the Govt be entitled to exercise voting rights related to said shares?

    Any thoughts?

  35. Fess – She gave me the impression she intends going her full term – for starters at least.

    Can’t see what RDN or anyone else can do until that term is up.

    But its no doubt all the fault of ‘someone else’…..

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