Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the election suggests the result has delivered a blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s public prestige.

Essential Research’s fortnightly aggregate keeps on rolling, this one combining results from polling conducted over the weekend of the election itself, and in its indecisive aftermath over the weekend just past. The result is little changed, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 41%, Labor down one at 36% and the Greens steady at 10%, but two-party preferred has nudged to 51-49 in Labor’s favour. Also included are leadership ratings, and these are particularly interesting in having been conducted only over the past weekend. They suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has taken a knock, with his approval down three to 37% and disapproval up eight to 48%. Bill Shorten is up two on both approval and disapproval, to 39% and 41% respectively. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-29 to 39-31. In the event of a hung parliament, which we now know won’t happen, 33% would have favoured a Coalition minority government, 36% would have favoured Labor, and 21% would have preferred a fresh election. Fifty-one per cent consider a fresh election likely in the next 12 months, versus 28% for unlikely (for what it’s worth, you can count me among the latter). For some reason, a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds a six-point drop in support to 58% and a two-point increase in opposition to 28%. Sixty per cent believe it should be decided by a plebiscite, down six, while 25% think it should be decided by parliament, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *