Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the election suggests the result has delivered a blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s public prestige.

Essential Research’s fortnightly aggregate keeps on rolling, this one combining results from polling conducted over the weekend of the election itself, and in its indecisive aftermath over the weekend just past. The result is little changed, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 41%, Labor down one at 36% and the Greens steady at 10%, but two-party preferred has nudged to 51-49 in Labor’s favour. Also included are leadership ratings, and these are particularly interesting in having been conducted only over the past weekend. They suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has taken a knock, with his approval down three to 37% and disapproval up eight to 48%. Bill Shorten is up two on both approval and disapproval, to 39% and 41% respectively. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-29 to 39-31. In the event of a hung parliament, which we now know won’t happen, 33% would have favoured a Coalition minority government, 36% would have favoured Labor, and 21% would have preferred a fresh election. Fifty-one per cent consider a fresh election likely in the next 12 months, versus 28% for unlikely (for what it’s worth, you can count me among the latter). For some reason, a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds a six-point drop in support to 58% and a two-point increase in opposition to 28%. Sixty per cent believe it should be decided by a plebiscite, down six, while 25% think it should be decided by parliament, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. It will be interesting to see if there is any sort of honeymoon for the Coalition Govt. This poll is not a great start.

  3. K2….by the way….I know that my comments on the Gs arouse criticism. In a way, the criticism itself is an illustration of one of my observations…..if you will permit me….

    When onlookers see a fight going on, they usually will have one of three reactions: they may want to join in; they may step in to break up the fight; they may recoil from it. Most people will cluster in the latter group. Among the bludgers, there are some protagonists who like to argue….Guytaur, POSS, boer, green pheonix, dtt, bemused, Nicholas, Nicole, GG, Pegasus, colton, confessions, T, ratsak, meher baba and myself being among those who are prepared to make exhibitions of ourselves, to some extent or another. Some, inevitably, go way over the limits of good behaviour and throw insults and slurs. But that is about the limit. Nearly everyone else averts their attention.

    The same thing can be seen in other, more real, political jousts. Some want to fight. Overwhelmingly, most just want the fighting to stop and for “reason” to prevail…for calm to return. In recent times, when economic and other anxieties have become quite elevated, the wish for calm is really very strong. We could see this expressed in the conduct of voters on polling day itself….voters were, it seemed to me, exhibiting a high degree of “closure” in their facial signs, gait and general demeanour. They were “imposing” calm and quiet on the polling environment. The more people that were present at a time, the more palpable was this feeling.

    I think a lot of recent behaviour reflects this split….”rejectionist/fighting” feelings in one queue and “calmative” expressions in the other queues….

  4. The Libs primary was appalling at election and was rescued by Nats and fringe dwellers. This poll just confirms.

    Jenauthor, I think that is a very important point and I am not sure the Libs have fully grasped that yet. The ALP out polls the Libs,, so who has a “mandate”?

  5. Bernard’s explainer on rounding & the shift from 50-50 to 51-49 to ALP

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/07/12/bill-shorten-leads-malcolm-turnbull-in-approval/

    On voting intention, the Coalition is steady on 41%, Labor is down a point to 36%, the Greens are steady 10% and “others” on 10%, which leads to a two-party preferred outcome of 51%-49% to Labor, up from 50-50 last week. Hang on — why’s that? Labor goes down on primary but up on the two-party preferred? It’s a rare confluence of numbers that gives us an opportunity to explain the role of rounding. The results from Essential, from around 1800 people and then weighted, plainly aren’t whole numbers, so they round them to the nearest whole, but still calculate two-party preferred based on the original numbers, and those results are rounded too (except the election eve result, which we kept to one decimal place). This week, the Coalition’s primary vote fell 0.3 points, which didn’t change its rounded number, Labor’s vote fell 0.4 points, which led to it being rounded down by a point, and the Greens went up 0.5 points, but that didn’t change their rounding. As a result, Labor’s two-party preferred outcome moved from 50.4% to 50.6%, and thus up a rounded point.

  7. Briefly

    In 2013, their was a very strong “angry” element at the booth I was handing out HTVs. People were fed up. Sure, our booth returned a positive for Labor, but their was no mistaking the anger about the surety of another three years in the wilderness.

    Bill Shorten has a lot to be proud of.

    And, it’s the likes of you and your cohorts who were never going to say die.

    Well done again.

    And, despite your constant put-down of the Greens, which I don’t think you needed to do, I must admit your compelling argument, coupled with a few others, and the press, reminded me of where my values lay, and they certainly weren’t with a Greens party led by Richard di Natale.

  8. Interesting about the concepts of’honeymoons’ and ‘political capital’. They are bandied about but just what they mean is anyone’s guess. Honeymoon I suppose is the goodwill to the winner at the election prior to buyer remorse setting in. For Turnbull, he really missed the boat to go to the election when he knocked off Abbott. Political capital is, I guess, the leeway the electorate gives the newly elected leader to bring in policies that were promised. I would think that Turnbull is down on his uppers in this regard to. He will struggle to resurrect his own agenda let alone the zombie bits from 2014 onwards. Turnbull may not exactly be a dead man walking (but the polices from the election and beforehand have been trashed. Whether any of this leads to an early election is yet to be seen.

  9. The Gs….9.84%….of which about 7.2-7.3% is a Labor-positive expression and around 2.5% is a cryptic Liberal-positive expression.

    So…the Tory PV+ G-pref assembles at about 44.5%. The Labor PV + G-pref assembles at about 42.3%. The Labor-positive plurality is 4-5-6% below where it ought to be.

    No doubt this is due in part to the relentless anti-Labor campaigning by we-all-know-who!!!

  10. kezza2 @ #7 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 5:14 pm

    Briefly
    In 2013, their was a very strong “angry” element at the booth I was handing out HTVs. People were fed up. Sure, our booth returned a positive for Labor, but their was no mistaking the anger about the surety of another three years in the wilderness.
    Bill Shorten has a lot to be proud of.
    And, it’s the likes of you and your cohorts who were never going to say die.
    Well done again.
    And, despite your constant put-down of the Greens, which I don’t think you needed to do, I must admit your compelling argument, coupled with a few others, and the press, reminded me of where my values lay, and they certainly weren’t with a Greens party led by Richard di Natale.

    Thanks K2….it’s good to see you back among the bludgers again…-:)

  11. At one stage last week the AEC had the Liberals PV and Labor’s PV both at 35%ish.

    I was hoping Tanya would remind Brandis of this last night when he was repeatedly and gleefully slagging off about Labor’s poor PV.

    P.S. Just referred to AEC again for PVs

    Labor 35.0
    Liberals 28.5
    LNP 8.5

    Other variants of Lib/Nats were bugger all.

    So “pure” Libs and Qld LNP together are 37, of which a portion of the 37 belongs to the Qld Nats part of the LNP. In fact “pure” Lib PV is probably less than Labor’s if one can assume that “pure” Nats own at least 2% 0f the LNPs 8.5%

    So Brandis needs to be told (about these PVs, and to eff off too)

  12. H-o-R PVs to date…
    So, if we split the National Liberal QLD 8% 50/50 (which is what is was in 2006 – last time they ran separately) then the Liberal Party has a national PV of about 33%.

  14. I think it is dawning on some of the more sensibile LNP crew that the days of a 44% PV for the Liberals (+Nats) might be over. They have been busy throwing stones at Labor’s PV when the sand is moving under their own feet. The splintering of the right wing vote is yet another problem besetting the LNP – especially those in the ‘broach church’ Small L Liberal area.

  15. KayJay

    My husband had a series of TIAs and a stroke, so I’m familiar with the symptoms and wasn’t afraid of that. It was the cold and discomfort on a bare wooden floor without the strength to pull bedding over me.

    Current problem was also school holidays. I appreciate your list of actions taken and shall pursue some of them. 🙂

    kezza2

    Bright girl. You have reminded me – I think the dog licked my plate. Perhaps a vet visit is in order.

  16. A threat to Democracy .. secret deals?
    This will be the first question time issue to trouble Mal
    Kenny..

    This continuum is wantonly broken if the Prime Minister’s first act is to ink a private arrangement in which policies and patronage are seen to be traded. Indeed, it should be noted in passing that it is actually illegal to offer material inducements to a federal parliamentarian to affect her or his actions.
    Of course, there is no suggestion the Coalition agreement is illegal. But a deal which hands over keenly sought ministerial spots, and grants unspecified undertakings on policies in exchange for a guaranteed majority, should at the very least, be open to public assessment.
    The defence for not doing so seems to start and end with precedent. But past secrecy is worse than irrelevant.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/coalition-agreement-barnaby-joyces-secrecy-strengthens-the-right-to-know-20160712-gq3xu5.html#ixzz4EB4Fb7eF

  17. Anyone else note that Pauline Hanson’s number political advisor is our friend James Ashby of Ashybgate/Slippergate/your favourite gate?

  18. The Nats apparently want the Communications portfolio.

    Key reasons are they want to protect ABC regional outlets, and prioritise the NBN to the country.

    Given it was Malcolm’s baby, if he hands it over it will be his first ‘failed test’

  20. Lizzie, I didn’t think a dog could get food poisoning, not after what my dogs have eaten over the years anyway…
    Best wishes on the recovery.

  21. This attempt by a big miner to walk away from its financial obligations to remediate a former mine site is so obvious Rio Tinto might as well rename itself James Hardie.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-12/rio-tinto-selling-massive-queensland-coal-mine-for-dollar/7588916
    Sinec the mine and its’ jobs are as good as dead (judging from the Rio move) why doesn’t Anna Palusczuk force Rio Tinto to start the remediation now? If they refuse Qld should take Rio to the courts now, before its too late. The clean up will generate at least $100 million in work in the local area, and take a long term liability off the books.

    Miners in Qld have a long history of walking away from mine cleanups without doing them, and the Mines department there has not exactly proven themselves a reliable defender of the State’s interests. Those who argued against the mining tax should be reminded of cases like this.

  22. ides of march @ #17 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    Anyone else note that Pauline Hanson’s number political advisor is our friend James Ashby of Ashybgate/Slippergate/your favourite gate?

    Many of us. There is some suggestion that Mr Ashby might have helped, from his PHON billet, in the eviction of Mr Roy from his seat.

  23. jenauthor
    Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 5:02 pm

    And the ALP’s was their second worst in what 50 years? and the Greens did SFA.

  24. As for this poll, after Turnbull’s appalling failure to face up to the crowd on election night, the damage to his leadership rating are not surprising. And on these numbers, any talk of another election from the Libs is pure bluff.

  26. Shorter C. “Look over there”.

    CC – I would be interested in your comment on the low Lib PV relative to the other parties and history.

  28. Ides of March

    And I found this observation in the article, interesting………

    It is easy to imagine James’ motivations were political and financial gain, that he was a honeytrap pawn in a Liberal/LNP concocted plot.

    But Ashby was no pawn. He had his own agenda — my take is that it was the sheer fun of destroying lives and creating political chaos. Being centre stage on the great stage of national treachery.

    James gives off distinct anarchist vibes, fizzing bomb in hand.

  29. Vogon Poet

    Probably why I didn’t think of it, as a diet of possum and wombat poo provides their vegies most days 😆

  32. But Ashby was no pawn. He had his own agenda — my take is that it was the sheer fun of destroying lives and creating political chaos. Being centre stage on the great stage of national treachery.

    Well, he has that in common with Pauline Hanson, I guess.

    I remember one story about James Ashby and the ‘interesting’ company he kept. A really out there on the bleeding edge of society’s norms kind of guy.

  33. nappin
    Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 6:00 pm
    The pedantic focus on the “Liberal” party is a waste of time. The only one that matters is the combined total of the LNP vote.

  35. Victoria – I thought it was revenge as the biggest motivator.

    TPOF – What did PHON do in Longman to disturb Roy Wyatt? Beside directing preferences.

  37. compact crank @ #33 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 6:24 pm

    nappin
    Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 6:00 pm
    The pedantic focus on the “Liberal” party is a waste of time. The only one that matters is the combined total of the LNP vote.

    The pedantic focus on the Labor party is a waste of time. Especially as it is the Liberal Party is in government. If they can’t govern, they need to hand over to the Labor Party, which actually does know how to work with cross-benchers.

  38. ides of march @ #35 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 6:28 pm

    Victoria – I thought it was revenge as the biggest motivator.
    TPOF – What did PHON do in Longman to disturb Roy Wyatt? Beside directing preferences.

    I understand from general reading (ie ,written gossip) that it was the the direction of preferences. But someone with actual knowledge or skill will have to look at preference distributions and actually work out if there was a difference there.

  39. Has anyone got any up to date feedback from the seat of Herbert. I know it is very close, to close to call etc and Labor has a narrow 86 lead.
    Any inside goss on how the remaining count might go.
    Cheers

  40. The only one that matters is the combined total of the LNP vote.

    As the Lib PV drops, the Coalition fragments into smaller parties. The more fragments, the less cooperation, instability etc. Already we see the Nats gaining a greater say, and that will not please some Libs. The Lib PV is just as important as the ALP PV.

  41. Wow, briefly! Anne Aly moves at the speed of light! Elected one day, putting her hand up to be included in the Shadow Ministry/Parliamentary Secretary ranks the next!

    Among the new faces in Labor’s ranks, indigenous caucus members Linda Burney and Pat Dodson are expected to immediately be given roles.

    Mike Kelly, a former defence materiel minister, could push a case while Anne Aly, one of Labor’s success stories in Western Australia, has raised her hand for promotion.

    Mr Shorten said the logjam of potential promotees was a “happy problem”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-mps-circle-the-health-portfolio-as-bill-shorten-ponders-the-extent-of-his-reshuffle-20160712-gq4811.html

  43. So Wyatt Roy is back to seasonal strawberry picking for a living?
    Good thing for him he’s not a backpacker, ay.

  45. The problem with the Libs not being Nationals and vice versa, is that when it suits them they claim they are separate identities. Then they claim they are all in the same tent. Then the Nationals want to wag the Liberal dog. The Liberals essentially hate the Nationals and see them for the harlots that they are. In WA when your coalition partner was willing to get into bed with Labor two elections ago, the Libs had just cause to be peed off with the bumpkins. I think the price for the sleep-in is over a billion$$ for country dunnies and long runs of sealed road used by three cockies a day – so called Royalties for Regions or soopped up Pork Barrel. Trouble is the Libs need the bumpkins as the Lib’s voter base is splintering to the right and will continue to do so. The day of the small L Liberal is numbered and the choice for those in the right will be Tea Party or Tea Party Lite. Watch this space….what a hoot.

  46. We could see this expressed in the conduct of voters on polling day itself….voters were, it seemed to me, exhibiting a high degree of “closure” in their facial signs, gait and general demeanour. They were “imposing” calm and quiet on the polling environment. The more people that were present at a time, the more palpable was this feeling.

    You need to get out more.

  48. Jeffemu

    Yesterday Labor was leading Herbert around 150 votes. This morning it went down to 51, and now 86. i have no idea how many postals and/or absentee votes left to count

  49. I know it’s an unusual curcumstance this year, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen the first post-election poll to not have a swing to the ‘winning’side.

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