Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the election suggests the result has delivered a blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s public prestige.

Essential Research’s fortnightly aggregate keeps on rolling, this one combining results from polling conducted over the weekend of the election itself, and in its indecisive aftermath over the weekend just past. The result is little changed, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 41%, Labor down one at 36% and the Greens steady at 10%, but two-party preferred has nudged to 51-49 in Labor’s favour. Also included are leadership ratings, and these are particularly interesting in having been conducted only over the past weekend. They suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has taken a knock, with his approval down three to 37% and disapproval up eight to 48%. Bill Shorten is up two on both approval and disapproval, to 39% and 41% respectively. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-29 to 39-31. In the event of a hung parliament, which we now know won’t happen, 33% would have favoured a Coalition minority government, 36% would have favoured Labor, and 21% would have preferred a fresh election. Fifty-one per cent consider a fresh election likely in the next 12 months, versus 28% for unlikely (for what it’s worth, you can count me among the latter). For some reason, a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds a six-point drop in support to 58% and a two-point increase in opposition to 28%. Sixty per cent believe it should be decided by a plebiscite, down six, while 25% think it should be decided by parliament, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. barney in saigon @ #1543 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 5:52 pm

    Regarding Herbert
    They’re scrutineering the remaining votes today preparing for the counting of these votes on Monday.
    At the moment the Libs are +12 with 887 votes to count.
    Nearly half the provisional votes have been rejected. These went to Labor 60.78% on the only batch (166 votes) counted and 402 remain.
    This seems very high and I’m not sure it will be maintained.
    Anyway looking at the current rates of transfer I’m showing Labor +15 at the finish.
    As most of you know any result plus or minus 100 is an automatic recount so that’s the most likely outcome at this stage.

    In regards to the provisional votes, I cannot help thinking about the huge number of people claiming they were not on the electoral role when they should have been. You would think many of these would have ended up submitting provisional votes. I wonder if there is an increase in provisionals this year. Does anyone know offhand to save me checking?

  2. kayjay @ #1547 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 6:03 pm

    Nicole
    greed is good, impulsiveness, self-interest…
    Were you at any time studying the Hillsong Church?

    No lol. Education, which I think is the best medicine to counter/prevent cognitive deficiencies. I did consider doing an assignment on the effects of deceptive media and propaganda, using 1930’s Germany as an example. As I stated earlier, this is one of my pet hates. I am sure it would apply to many other cults though.

  3. P1 @6:49PM: it’s been a bit quiet here lately compared to recent weeks, not unexpected. Unlike last election, we don’t have ‘Liberal’ posters gloating and predicting a decade plus long run for the winner. Others are suffering election- or politics- fatigue and directing their attention elsewhere.

  4. Had ISIS been around in the 1990s they would probably claimed ‘credit’ for Port Arthur. In fact, the deranged Martin Bryant might decided he was a jihadi warrior and made an iPhone video claiming allegiance before going on his rampage.

  5. Poroti

    Everyone will be glued to the “Toowoomba South by-election: preview and live coverage” blog

    You can sit up and keep watch.

    I think the rest of us will sleep through it.

  6. I have finally stopped gnawing on my leg in disappointment a crawled out from under the house. I will start posting again regularly from tomorrow.
    Have a good holiday BK.

  7. Had ISIS been around in the 1990s they would probably claimed ‘credit’ for Port Arthur. In fact, the deranged Martin Bryant might decided he was a jihadi warrior and made an iPhone video claiming allegiance before going on his rampage.

    The NRA have just released a statement declaring that the tragedy in Nice could’ve been prevented if all those spectators had been armed with semi trailers. 😀

  8. confessions
    #1561 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 7:32 pm

    The NRA have just released a statement declaring that the tragedy in Nice could’ve been prevented if all those spectators had been armed with semi trailers.

    ……………………………………………………………

    Others have taken ‘black’ humour further –

    1. No one needs a commercial truck this large.

    2. The Founding Fathers never envisioned large commercial trucks, and did not intend for people to drive them.

    3. These “assault trucks” are designed for killing large numbers of people quickly, and that is their only use.

    4. We need a “no truck” list immediately, one that does not require due process to get on or off.

    5. No where in the Constitution does it mention the freedom to own these killing devices called trucks.

    6. Large commercial trucks should only be owned by the police, military, or politicians, NOT normal citizens, who can use horses.

    7. We already have licensing, registration, titles, inspection, and multiple taxes on large commercial vehicles, and STILL they are used for mass killing. Enough is enough. We must ban them entirely.

    8. We must follow Australia’s example – we must have a massive government buy-back of all trucks currently owned by American citizens, then, they must be destroyed.

    9. We must empower the police and military to go door-to-door to forcibly remove these “assault trucks”. Deadly force is reasonable when “disarming” people of these killing devices.

    10. If it will save the life of even a single child, we must rid our society of trucks.

    11. And lastly, we must continue to resettle enormous numbers of Muslims throughout the United States, primarily in rural, white, Christian areas.

    http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/07/15/obamas-11-point-response-to-the-french-tragedy/

  9. confessions

    Looking at No.11 I think the list’s humor is not intended the way we take it. Especially after reading a few comments on the site. Check out this cartoon.

  10. Not sure if the NRA has claimed the right for citizens to own a robot with a bomb. The best way to stop a bad man with a gun…

  11. I finished the following book today from a favourite author of mine, Daniel Silva – The Black Widow – about ISIS terror attacks in Europe.

    Daniel Silva started to write the book prior to the Paris bombings last year and laid it aside in the aftermath of those attacks. Later he decided to continue with it.

    This series of books is based on a fictional legend of the Israel Spy Service, Gabriel Allon.

    Daniel Silva – The Black Widow

    Series: Gabriel Allon, Book 16

    Number one New York Times best-selling author Daniel Silva delivers another spellbinding international thriller – one that finds the legendary Gabriel Allon grappling with an ISIS mastermind.

    Gabriel Allon, the art restorer, spy, and assassin described as the most compelling fictional creation “since Ian Fleming put down his martini and invented James Bond” (Rocky Mountain News), is poised to become the chief of Israel’s secret intelligence service. But on the eve of his promotion, events conspire to lure him into the field for one final operation. ISIS has detonated a massive bomb in the Marais district of Paris, and a desperate French government wants Gabriel to eliminate the man responsible before he can strike again.

    Acclaimed novelist Daniel Silva has thrilled, entertained, and educated listeners with 18 thoughtful and gripping spy novels featuring a diverse cast of compelling characters and ingenious plots that have taken them around the globe and back – from the United States to Europe, Russia to the Middle East. From its shocking opening to its explosive denouement in Washington, DC, The Black Widow reveals itself as Silva’s most timely and powerful novel yet. Following the success of his smash hit The English Spy, this electrifying thriller showcases Silva’s consummate skill and brilliant imagination and is sure to be a must-listen for his multitude of current and future fans.

    He gives a bit of background here –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AltDFHUbOio

  12. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30m30 minutes ago
    #ToowoombaSouth By-election Primary Votes (52.4% counted): LNP 42.3 Thorley IND 36.5 FF 8.4 GRN 5.9 #qldpol #auspol

  13. nicole @ #1569 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 8:02 pm

    Wayne swan has written an article for the Huffington Post.

    Inclusive Prosperity Should Be Popular, Not Populist
    Balancing the budget on the backs of those least able to bear it is bad economics as well as bad politics.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/wayne-swan/inclusive-prosperity-should-be-popular-not-populist/

    I am loving this last sentence and my response is some thoughtful nods.

    “Similarly, the election result should prompt progressives to redouble their efforts in shaping the message of inclusive prosperity from being merely populist to deservingly popular.”

  14. zoomster @ #1541 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    SK
    I currently drive a diesel Peugeot. I have never loathed a car more.

    Zoom, get a Toyota. You will never regret it. They make sedans and 4wds, both are close to indestructible.

    We’ve got a 1998 sedan and a 2001 station wagon, and they are a delight to drive, reasonable economy for their age and weight, and cheap as chips to buy.

    My 1998 sedan cost me $3000 about four years ago, and it hasn’t missed a beat. I spend about $400 a year on maintenance, mostly servicing and tyres and so on, and it is the most reliable car I have ever owned.

  15. What a wanker, buying a Peugot.

    That”ll learn ya for trying to be sophisticated.

    Still, I love diesels. You can’t run anything else into the sea, bog it, leave it overnight to time and tide, pull the engine down, rinse, put it back together, right as rain.

  16. So help me dog if moneybags million dollar PM Turnbull attempts to have a joint sitting of parliament to introduce the ABCC….

    Asbestos found in children’s hospital”. A staffer put it this way: “It’s the sort of thing that sinks Governments.”

    You know it’s bad when a Liberal Premier praises and thanks the CFMEU for its conduct. One can only imagine the horror workers who suffered potential exposure must feel.

    The big question the public rightly asks is how on earth could such a thing happen.

    While investigations will try to establish that, the answer is more likely to be a stuff-up than deliberate deception.

  17. I am loving this last sentence and my response is some thoughtful nods.

    “Similarly, the election result should prompt progressives to redouble their efforts in shaping the message of inclusive prosperity from being merely populist to deservingly popular.”

    ………………………………………………

    Swannie is on the money.

    From Jeremy Grantham today (in a Brexit context) – co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo, (GMO) a Boston-based asset management firm –

    There is a consensus that social cohesion is the key to a successful society. It brings with it the broadest range of advantages: greater economic mobility; longer lives and better health; fewer babies born to teenagers; fewer traffic deaths, murders, suicides and robberies; a smaller percentage in prison; and less stress and higher levels of contentment, amongst others. Not bad.

    The biggest simple input to social cohesion turns out to be income equality, which is correlated highly with every individual measure of social cohesion listed above.

    Conversely, income inequality leaves the impression, probably correctly, that the political voice of the poor has been lost or weakened.

    He gives references to back it up etc

  18. It is not a stuff up. The CFMEU for one, have been voicing their concerns regarding asbestos in materials from China for ages!!

  19. Nicole

    There was something quite enjoyable about your slap-down of CC the other night. I note he disappeared like a dog with a tin can tied to his tail.

    I was hoping that he’d disappeard for good (although I do recall William congratulating him on his forebearance with the regulars).

    Then he re-surfaced a couple of days later with his new set of RWNJobbery.

    It’s pretty hard to run the RWNJ’s out of town.

  20. And a further report a few hours ago

    Almost 70 major buildings and construction sites across Aus­tralia have been supplied with materials by a Chinese company linked to the discovery of deadly asbestos at a Perth children’s hospital and a Brisbane office tower this week.

    The Australian has obtained a list compiled by the company, Yuanda, showing it has supplied products to projects including ANZ Bank’s headquarters in Melbourne, Lend Lease’s Barangaroo development in Sydney and James Packer’s new Crown Towers in Perth. The 69 projects named in the document include government-owned projects such as the Queensland Children’s Hospital in Brisbane, the Gold Coast University Hospital, Fiona Stanley Hospital in Perth, the Perth Stadium and the Royal ­Adelaide Hospital.

  21. dave @ #1579 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 8:38 pm

    “Similarly, the election result should prompt progressives to redouble their efforts in shaping the message of inclusive prosperity from being merely populist to deservingly popular.”

    ………………………………………………
    Swannie is on the money.
    From Jeremy Grantham today (in a Brexit context) – co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo, (GMO) a Boston-based asset management firm –

    There is a consensus that social cohesion is the key to a successful society. It brings with it the broadest range of advantages: greater economic mobility; longer lives and better health; fewer babies born to teenagers; fewer traffic deaths, murders, suicides and robberies; a smaller percentage in prison; and less stress and higher levels of contentment, amongst others. Not bad.
    The biggest simple input to social cohesion turns out to be income equality, which is correlated highly with every individual measure of social cohesion listed above.
    Conversely, income inequality leaves the impression, probably correctly, that the political voice of the poor has been lost or weakened.

    He gives references to back it up etc

    Yes, good points there too. I will have to find a link to that. I also like this old argument that does not get enough of a spotlight. When the lower and working classes have more money to spend it stimulates and gives life to the economy so everyone benefits, whereas giving it to those who already have it removes money from circulation, which leads to stagnation and is bad for the economy.

  22. Anyone heard of this book?

    “The Vigilantes of Montana,” by Prof. Thos. J. Dimsadale?

    This happens to be my late night reading.

    The Story So Far: Blah blah blah, only the good folk of Montana, the mountaineers, in fact, know how to behave civilly and that’s only when the “right women” are there to civilise the men.”

    This is after 40 pages or so of how the men settled scores, killed Indians and squaws, but it’s mostly to do with where the buckshot went.

    Sounds a bit Eng-Abs murders, And that brings me to McMillan, the electorate. One of the things that scored well for Russel Broadbent, was his call to change the name of the electorate because of Angus McMillan’s penchant for killing Aborigines.

  23. victoria @ #1581 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 8:39 pm

    It is not a stuff up. The CFMEU for one, have been voicing their concerns regarding asbestos in materials from China for ages!!

    It’s a biggie alright. My ex’s father worked for the Brisbane City Council. He tried to raise concerns about workers being sent into asbestos riddled areas (old unofficial dumping sites) without protective clothing and the fact kids were playing in those areas and he was shut down with serious intimidation and threats. This was decades ago. I am sure a lot more will come to light in time.

  24. Don

    I’m an Alfa girl. My absolute favorite best ever car was a Guilia. Red, of course.

    kezza

    Don’t blame me, it was hubby’s choice. We’d had a Peugeot before, which hated me (this time I hate it). It did things like break down in torrential rainstorms a few hundred metres from home. It’s still sitting in the garden (we have cars as garden features…) and glowers at me when I go past.

    I put my Kevin Rudd corflute in it. They deserve each other.

    Anyhoo, the newer one decided not to have power steering any more. I tried to do a U turn in a very wide street the other day, and ended up doing something like an eighteen point turn. I am developing arm muscles like you wouldn’t believe.

    Meanwhile, at last count, we have something like half a dozen cars hubby is tinkering on, not one of which is registered. (3 VW Ups, 1 Lotus, 1 Lamborghini, 1 Alfa, 1 Kombi van, and my son is working on a mini…)

  25. kezza2 @ #1582 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 8:39 pm

    Nicole
    There was something quite enjoyable about your slap-down of CC the other night. I note he disappeared like a dog with a tin can tied to his tail.
    I was hoping that he’d disappeard for good (although I do recall William congratulating him on his forebearance with the regulars).
    Then he re-surfaced a couple of days later with his new set of RWNJobbery.
    It’s pretty hard to run the RWNJ’s out of town.

    Hahahaha I love factual slap-downs. I think he decided to just ignore me.
    We’ll see.

  26. Nicole
    #1584 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 8:56 pm

    Yes, good points there too. I will have to find a link to that.

    …………………………………………

    The short version –

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better

    The longer book version –

    The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger

    http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/The-Spirit-Level-Why-Greater-Equality-Makes-Societies-Stronger-Kate-Pickett-400p_1608193411.pdf

  27. Zoom

    Re: Peugots
    Oh noes, you ‘ll awake the living dead with your: I put my Kevin Rudd corflute in it. They deserve each other.

    Watch out for the regulation WIDESCREEN IN FULL VIEW SNIPER attack!!!
    —-
    Dad had a paddock for dead and dying cars. It used to be our orchard before the horses took over.

  28. Don

    I mean to add, my father shared your regard for Toyotas.

    He was particularly impressed by the similarity between Toyota engines (we’re talking the 1980s here) and Mercedes, to the point that when his old Merc’s engine blew he replaced it with one from a Toyota Corona.

    This ignored the fact that the Toyota engine was made to propel a much smaller vehicle. As a result, it never quite coped with the situation.

    I have a glorious memory of my wedding party lined up behind the Merc at a stop sign, because the engine had stalled and we couldn’t get it going again. My sister, in full bridesmaid’s regalia, sprinted up from several cars behind us, threw up the bonnet, and performed whatever magic was required to get us moving again…

  29. Alan Moir with Turnbull having some problems with the Senate. Little time bomb Arfur is running around.

    Brilliant! Thanks BK.

  30. My next-door (the one who voted Russell Broabent) is having an impromptu party. Just been invited (knock at the door).

    Check ya tomorra!!

  31. kezza2
    The Vigilantes of Montana
    I have obtained this book, initially in pdf, and “calibre”d it to mobi.
    I only recently told my favourite daughter and grandson about the Myall Creek Murders and the governor who hanged some of the perpetrators. The first and last intervention, sadly.

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