ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition just keeps its nose in front on the latest ReachTEL national poll. Also featured: marginal seat polling galore.

The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.

This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.

We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:

• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).

• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).

• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.

• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.

ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:

Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.

Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.

Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.

Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.

Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.

Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 26 of 27
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  1. I can understand the dissatisfaction felt by the remainers in England today, especially given the continuing and completely unwarranted fear-mongering going on, but the Scots have no-one to blame but themselves. They had the chance to break free from the UK a year or so ago, and they blew it. They gave into fear and now they cry foul.

  2. Thanks for that Douglas and Milko – brushed up quite well…

    You are very photogenic.

    I am also female, despite choosing my (then) dog’s names as my screen name when signing up for Crikey. My real name is Maria, but it is interesting that most people assume I am male. That being said, I actually do some research on gender issues, and I know very well that, unless I am being careful, I can make the “if no gender stated assume male” mistake.

    A few years ago I have a postgrad student who submitted a pretty awful paper to a peer-reviewed journal, with a large number of names on it, including mine. It was refereed quickly, before I picked up that it had been submitted.

    I wrote to the journal editor saying that I needed to withdraw my name, and that of several colleagues who had not given permission for the paper to be submitted.

    The editor was generally cool, and issued said student with a “yellow card” (it was a British journal), so that they could not submit papers to said journal in the future without express permission from all authors.

    However, I must have said something like “please apologise to the referee for the time he has spent on this..”, because the snapy response fromt he Editor was “Also, please do not make assumptions about the gender of anonymous referees.” Touché

  3. As I said earlier, at present, the highest probability is for a reduced Coalition majority. But things could change between now and election day. The momentum is with Labor at present but this could be halted by the Labor deficit numbers. Brexit I think will only be a significant issue if Labor makes a mistake. Economic stability is a big issue, but its hard for the Coalition to get traction from Brexit as now the UK is so far away in our consciousness.
    There is still quite a bit of scope for mistakes by both sides. And in the last week, the media can blow up a mistake out of all proportion and it can be influential. Remember Latham’s handshake of Howard.
    So we will have to wait and see.
    And Xenophon may still be the joker in the pack. It is so hard to estimate from the polls how well Xenophon will do in the HOR. Xenophon has been underestimated so many times in the past.

  4. Steve777 @ 11.05pm: That cuts both ways. I sometimes think back to the times when unions really were powerful and capricious to boot, and when you could basically guarantee that some bloody-minded refuelers’ or baggage handlers’ strike would be pulled on at Easter or Christmas. If you believed the rhetoric of the Liberals and the IPA, that’s still the case, whereas most people understand that the impact of unions has simply lessened, for ill in some ways, for good in others. They aren’t the bogey man they once were.

  5. I wonder who the Sydney Morning Herald will endorse?

    They’ll probably do what they usually do. Set out a reasonably sober assessment of both sides and advise its readers to vote Coalition.

  6. AB
    They had the chance to break free from the UK a year or so ago, and they blew it. They gave into fear and now they cry foul

    That’s a bit unfair. The Better Together campaign assured Scots that Scotland would be safe in the EU if they voted down independence. Well, they did that, and have subsequently been dragged out of the EU against their will.

  7. Scotland is well within its rights to hold a second referendum on being part of Britain once the terms of Brexit are finalised, I would suggest. They are not getting what they voted to remain in any more.

  8. JimmyDoyle @ 11.07pm: Yes, you are right on that. But I would guess most of the cross-benchers would be disinclined to back a Liberal leader other than Mr Turnbull. Apart from anything else, changing him straight after an election which has been almost completely focussed on the Turnbull brand would be the greatest case of what the Americans call “bait and switch” in Australian political history, and I don’t imagine the cross-benchers would want to share the credit for that.

    And ultimately, they probably wouldn’t actually have to back a Labor government, but merely threaten to do so: that would probably be enough to persuade the Liberal party room to stick with Mr Turnbull rather than take the risk that the cross-benchers might not be bluffing. (They could also support a no confidence motion in any Liberal successor to Mr Turnbull, rather than back a Labor government; that would presumably lead to an early election.)

    But as you say, a lot will depend on the numbers, and the composition of the cross bench.

  10. On last minute dramas in the campaign, remember, also, that the blackout for TV and radio election advertising is now only 96 hours and 39 minutes away.

  11. Pedant – yes I think the breaking of any “agreement” would result in another election, which Shorten and Labor would win in a landslide.

  12. Yes, Pedant @11:12PM, the Big End of town and their political wing are still invoking their old and unfortunately long-since defeated adversary to scare the punters.

  14. Jimmy Doyle

    The establishment European left, including – or perhaps especially, UK Labour – desperately needs to move past its reflexive and blind defense of the EU, and start pushing for wholesale political and economic reform of EU agreements and institutions. Until it does that, the far-right will continue to be the home of the tens of millions of Europeans disillusioned, disempowered, and hurt by the European project – and they will rip it apart if they can.

    This seems to be the consensus of Poll Bludgers, but this has not been my experience in continental Europe. The Western European powers are very happy with the EU, as are the Baltic states. The latter in particular are terrified of the possible break-up of the EU, because they would then be subject to the same pressures Russia puts on states such as Ukraine and Georgia.

    And, I can tell you from personal and family experience, Ireland love the EU, and wants to join the Schengen zone. So far they have not joined the Schengen zone, at the behest of the UK, because of the problems with would cause with the currently seamless border with Northern Ireland. However, this border will, in about 2 years, become a hard border, in which case Ireland will go for the Schengen zone.

    And, as for UK Labour trying to modify the EU, things have gone past that. The EU want the UK out, and quickly, to minimise the damage. and I agree with them. The primary purpose of the EU is to prevent the terrible internecine wars that plagued the continent until after 1945 for Western Europe, and up into the end of the 1990s with the former Yugoslavia.

  15. the markets….

    http://www.reuters.com/
    S&P -3.59%
    Dow – 3.39%
    FTSE – 3.15%
    Nikkei – 7.92%

    the politics…
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZA3KG

    Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton regained a double-digit lead over Republican rival Donald Trump this week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

    The June 20-24 poll showed that 46.6 percent of likely American voters supported Clinton while 33.3 percent supported Trump. Another 20.1 percent said they would support neither candidate.

  16. A B
    It’s perfectly understandable that Scotland would like to reassess their position and vote again on independence. The whole proposition has changed. There is nothing to stop them from deciding democratically whether to leave the UK now in light of the changed circumstances

  19. Pre-voted in Corangamite today and it was packed. Just a couple of observations.

    – Running the gauntlet was terrifying, party hacks jostling each other to be the first to shove HTV cards in your face. Would love a back entrance.
    -Liberals have spent a fortune. I received 3 items from them. A HTV card, a flyer on the CFA dispute, and a leaflet on what they have done for the seat for the past 3 years and what they plan for the next 3.
    – ALP had a combined HTV card that took in Corangamite and the neighbouring seat of Corio (Marles ALP). Thought it quite strange.
    – Would be good if the AEC employed polling officials that have a basic understanding of English, as i had to repeat my common surname numerous times.
    – I complained about the size of the Senate paper to my wife and said they need bigger booths. Shit everywhere. An official overheard and came up and suggested using the side walls of the booth left and right so you can get the full picture.

    Anyway like many others on here. I will be glad when its all over.

  20. The Age
    1h
    The Age‏ @theage
    COMMENT: Feel sorry for Scott Morrison – it must be tough backing a doomed cause #ausvotes

  21. diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm

    Rossco
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.

    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.

  22. douglas and milko @ #1264 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:24 pm

    Jimmy Doyle

    The establishment European left, including – or perhaps especially, UK Labour – desperately needs to move past its reflexive and blind defense of the EU, and start pushing for wholesale political and economic reform of EU agreements and institutions. Until it does that, the far-right will continue to be the home of the tens of millions of Europeans disillusioned, disempowered, and hurt by the European project – and they will rip it apart if they can.

    This seems to be the consensus of Poll Bludgers, but this has not been my experience in continental Europe. The Western European powers are very happy with the EU, as are the Baltic states. The latter in particular are terrified of the possible break-up of the EU, because they would then be subject to the same pressures Russia puts on states such as Ukraine and Georgia.
    And, I can tell you from personal and family experience, Ireland love the EU, and wants to join the Schengen zone. So far they have not joined the Schengen zone, at the behest of the UK, because of the problems with would cause with the currently seamless border with Northern Ireland. However, this border will, in about 2 years, become a hard border, in which case Ireland will go for the Schengen zone.
    And, as for UK Labour trying to modify the EU, things have gone past that. The EU want the UK out, and quickly, to minimise the damage. and I agree with them. The primary purpose of the EU is to prevent the terrible internecine wars that plagued the continent until after 1945 for Western Europe, and up into the end of the 1990s with the former Yugoslavia.

    European peoples endured more or less endless warring from the Reformation onwards until 1945. They have an incomplete union and, consequently, they an unstable monetary order, but they also have peace. Understandably, they will not permit the English Tories to compromise this. The Tories have never understood their absurdity. Perhaps they soon will.

  23. Taylormade – the AEC has to take anyone it can get. They don’t pay enough to get anyone who has something better to do on their weekend.

  24. Douglas and Milko
    The Western European powers are very happy with the EU

    I strongly disagree with that. The National Front in France is fanatically Eurosceptic and is campaigning on holding a referendum on whether France should withdraw from the EU. They are currently polling in the high twenties-low thirties. The Dutch, Danish, Swedish and the Austrians all have popular Eurosceptic parties. The Five Star Movement in Italy is a left-wing Eurosceptic party that rivals the incumbent Democrats in polling. Unidos Podemos in Spain is also left-wing and is mildly Eurosceptic and very well could win the imminent election.

  25. Norwester
    Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    I can’t get over some of the defeatist crap here.
    This is a line ball election. Labor may be 50/50 on TPP but they are seriously competitive in enough seats to be in with a very big chance to cause an upset.
    ——–
    Couldn’t agree more. Remember in 2013, in NSW for example, Labor’s PV fell 2.7 points from 37.2 to 34.5 and the Coalition PV only improved by the same 2.7 points – yet Labor lost 8 seats in NSW. Preferences from the Greens to Labor also suffered in NSW due to a fall in Green PVs from 10.1 to 7.9. This can be reversed. Also, I think it was Antony Green who said in NSW Labor has a better record of converting swings into seat gains than the Coalition. William shows a 2PP swing of 3.1 against the Coalition in NSW. Don’t plan to move to NZ just yet-
    Worst case scenario for me right now is a Coalition 74 Labor 70 Others 6 Hung Parliament. I hope but don’t expect it will get much better than a Labor – cross bench Government.

  27. On European attitudes to Brexit, I can’t help thinking that the time will come when they resemble those described by Lytton Strachey relating to John Henry Newman’s conversion to the Catholic faith and departure from Oxford: “The University breathed such a sigh of relief as usually follows the difficult expulsion of a hard piece of matter from a living organism”.

  28. Sohar
    Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:36 pm
    First Dog seems to have been neutered by Lenore Taylor during the election campaign. Too Turnbull unfriendly?

    Hardly, FDOTM has been out bilby spotting…

  29. The Scots didn’t get what they voted for. They have every right to reassess their choice given the changed circumstances of Brexit.

  30. shiftaling @ #1266 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:25 pm

    A B
    It’s perfectly understandable that Scotland would like to reassess their position and vote again on independence. The whole proposition has changed. There is nothing to stop them from deciding democratically whether to leave the UK now in light of the changed circumstances

    Doubtless, if the EU will have them, they will be very tempted to leave the UK. I would do so were I in their shoes. For a small economy, access to the markets of the EU and to their institutional machinery would be invaluable. They may also find they could position themselves to take on a role as a financial centre. The great advantage the UK has had in financial affairs has been the legal system, a system that is understood and accepted in non-UK jurisdictions. This system also operates in Scotland. Maybe Edinburgh can become the next City and Glasgow the next Oxford or Cambridge. Why not!

  31. taylormade @ #1269 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:27 pm

    Pre-voted in Corangamite today and it was packed. Just a couple of observations.
    – Running the gauntlet was terrifying, party hacks jostling each other to be the first to shove HTV cards in your face. Would love a back entrance.
    -Liberals have spent a fortune. I received 3 items from them. A HTV card, a flyer on the CFA dispute, and a leaflet on what they have done for the seat for the past 3 years and what they plan for the next 3.
    – ALP had a combined HTV card that took in Corangamite and the neighbouring seat of Corio (Marles ALP). Thought it quite strange.
    – Would be good if the AEC employed polling officials that have a basic understanding of English, as i had to repeat my common surname numerous times.
    – I complained about the size of the Senate paper to my wife and said they need bigger booths. Shit everywhere. An official overheard and came up and suggested using the side walls of the booth left and right so you can get the full picture.
    Anyway like many others on here. I will be glad when its all over.

    That’s interesting, I have always believed that electioneering material, other than HTVs, was not permitted.
    Certainly, I have never heard of it happening before.

  32. Taylormade @ 11.27pm: I don’t know why the AEC doesn’t combine two adjacent screens by cutting the cardboard dividing wall out with a Stanley knife and sticking them together: I saw that done some years ago by the ACT Electoral Commission when they were offering pre-polling for NSW with the big Legislative Council ballot.

    I voted pre-poll yesterday, and found the easiest thing to do was hang my senate ballot paper over the wall of the screen like a towel drying, while filling out my reps paper.

    I don’t think the Liberals will get much joy in handing out flyers to read: by the team people get to a pre-poll, they will just want to get in and out.

  33. Bemused – the Liberals, at least in NSW, have shown they are perfectly happy to break the law if it helps them get elected. I don’t see why the Victorian Liberals would be any different.

  35. Jimmy Doyle

    The Western European powers are very happy with the EU

    I strongly disagree with that. The National Front in France is fanatically Eurosceptic and is campaigning on holding a referendum on whether France should withdraw from the EU. They are currently polling in the high twenties-low thirties. The Dutch, Danish, Swedish and the Austrians all have popular Eurosceptic parties. The Five Star Movement in Italy is a left-wing Eurosceptic party that rivals the incumbent Democrats in polling. Unidos Podemos in Spain is also left-wing and is mildly Eurosceptic and very well could win the imminent election.

    I am basing my comments on living in Europe for about 20% of the last 10 years: France, Germany and Ireland mostly, but with quite a few trips to other places.

    Marine Le Pen (FN) certainly does very well in the south of France, particularly around Marseille, but my impression is that she is only a footnote to the news in most of France, especially Paris. Also, France, unlike Australia, have about the same number of socialists to balance her. France is rock solid for the EU.

    Ireland and Germany – great fans.

    The Netherlands – Geert Widers once again seems pretty fringe, a bit Pauline Hanson like.

    Austria really is a worry, as is Hungary. It all goes back to the Hapsburgs and the Holy Roman Empire.

    Belgium – we are talking here about a country where you need to speak English, always, because you do not know whether the person you are speaking to is Flemish or Walloon. Personal experience – at the Flemish Free University in Brussels (there is also a Walloon one) – Reception for a conference, order: Wit Bier Dank. (Well, it was the Flemish part of the University so trying to speak the lingo seemed just like good manners) . Bartender deaf. Ahhh. Bier blanche si vous plait, one white beer immediately poured – the bar tender was a French-speaking Walloon. And these people are going to leave the EU? Certainly not as one united Belgium.

    The difference with the UK, I think, is the willingness of the right to jump on the “Leave” bandwagon for cynical political gain, and the pernicious influence of Murdoch in the Anglophone world.

    Jimmy, I am sure your information is as good as mine – this is just my experience of the EU as lived in western Europe.

  36. norwester @ #1244 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    This election is a real contest. Don’t be sucked in people. It is close.

    It’s an arm wrestle and they are biting their nails!

    I’m not being put off by the attempts at stage-managed bravado that the Coalition are laying on with a trowel. Like today’s effort from Turnbull and Morrison. It was almost as bad as the one they arranged to show them walking in a ‘unified’ way out to the car in the courtyard in Parliament House (another one of Keating’s magnificent achievements just quietly for all the Green nongs out there).

    So today we had Turnbull and Morrison in their best bespoke pinstripe suits, traipsing through the sandstone colonnades of somewhere, before they had their solemn press conference to be ever so frank and earnest about how they, despite evidence to the contrary being all around them and sticking out like the proverbials, are the only ones you can trust to manage the economy during any economic crisis caused by the Brexit vote.

    When, at one and the same time the denizens of Sydney were going out into the bright and clear winter weather to bid up 600-odd houses way above their reserve price. ‘Brexit? What Brexit? I thought it was a breakfast cereal!’ I could almost hear them say.

    Now if it was going to worry them they would at least stayed near to the reserves.

    Yeah. Nah.

    Turnbull and Morrison, and this has been the problem with THEIR campaign all along, just don’t get the current zeitgeist.

    People aren’t worried about externalities like Brexit. They are worried about the internalities, if you will, of making sure Australia stays as a place where you can get ahead and enjoy the fruits of your labours. Just don’t leave the rest behind who aren’t as able to do so!

    Which is exactly what Turnbull and Morrison and their pin-striped mates want to do.
    As their misguided imagery reinforced today.

  37. Bemused @ 11.44pm: As I understand it, a pre-poll centre does not have identical legal status to a polling booth. Nobody other than voters, scrutineers and polling officials is entitled to be inside a pre-poll voting centre (Electoral Act, s 348), and canvassing can’t take place inside (Electoral Act, s 200DB), but the usual rules prohibiting canvassing for votes outside but within 6 metres of the entrance apply to polling booths but not pre-poll voting centres (see Electoral Act, s 340).

  38. Pedant,

    “The University breathed such a sigh of relief as usually follows the difficult expulsion of a hard piece of matter from a living organism”.

    Or, as is traditionally said on hearing that a troublesome member of staff is relocating to a new place of work “Our loss is there loss”.

    I recently used this phrase in respect of a matter at my work place. The answer from my colleague was “That is the politest thing anyone has said so far”.

  40. Bemused
    Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:28 pm
    diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm

    Rossco
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.

    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.

    It’s Ged (Geraldine) Kearney

  41. JimmyDoyle #1250
    I believe Windsor would support Labor if they promised to put Tamworth back at the head of the queue for NBN connection. If he is re-elected, it will be despite his support for Gillard, so he could afford to support Labor again.

  42. bemused @ #1271 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:28 pm

    diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm

    Rossco
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.

    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.

    bemused,
    That’s Ged Kearney, as in Geraldine. Not ‘Jed’, as in Clampett.

  43. First Dog seems to have been neutered by Lenore Taylor during the election campaign. Too Turnbull unfriendly?

    Hardly, FDOTM has been out bilby spotting…

    But why is FDOTM out Bilby spotting right now – apart from the long dreary campaign of course…

    Yeah, so maybe it is a cartoonist decision rather than an editorial one.

  44. jimmydoyle @ #1250 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:07 pm

    Pedant
    If the cross benchers wanted to play really tough, they could make it clear that in the absence of Mr Turnbull they would support a Labor government, and then, if Mr Turnbull happened to get rolled, he could quite legitimately advise the GG to invite Mr Shorten to form a government.

    That would strongly depend on the seat count. If, say, Labor had 69-70 seats to the Coalition’s 73-75, with 6-7 crossbenchers, it would be inadvisable and probably impossible for Labor to form government, as they would have to rely on all of the crossbenchers – and Katter, McGowan (and Oakeshott and Windsor, if they win) would not back Labor.

    I can’t see any reason why Oakeshott and Windsor wouldn’t be up for a rerun of 2010-3. Windsor got stuff he believed in and still believes in, he’d be happy to do it again and sock another one to the National Party which he hates. McGowan I would think would decide based on what she thought was best for her electorate. Wilkie won’t do deals as such but may do confidence and supply support without a deal. I’m a bit surprised at the view that the crossbench wouldn’t help Labor that I’ve seen here a few times.

  45. lord haw haw of arabia @ #1290 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:59 pm

    Bemused
    Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 11:28 pm
    diogenes @ #1234 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:55 pm
    Rossco
    Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.
    Your surely jest.
    Dave Oliver is Secretary and Jed Kearney is President.
    It’s Ged (Geraldine) Kearney

    Quite right. Silly mistake, probably a result of also knowing a Jed.

    But its not Geraldine either, its ‘Gerardine’.

  47. Yes, the Age Editorial is for Labor.

    Here is the SMH’s:

    “We believe that if Mr Turnbull reconnects with his core values and keeps his promises, he deserves a chance to establish his own mandate.”

  48. the chauvinism works both ways re Nicholas – his sexism illustrates his innate conservatism.

    It’s a fifty-fifty guess as to gender when a person doesn’t use a real first name, and if you use the phrase “hairy nose” to denote yourself then it tends to conjure the image of an ageing male with tufts of hair sprouting from the nose and ears.
    The pomposity and braggadocio of your posts tip the probability even further towards maleness.
    Of course hirsute braggarts can be female.

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