ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition just keeps its nose in front on the latest ReachTEL national poll. Also featured: marginal seat polling galore.

The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.

This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.

We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:

• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).

• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).

• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.

• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.

ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:

Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.

Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.

Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.

Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.

Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.

Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. nicholas @ #1298 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 12:11 am

    the chauvinism works both ways re Nicholas – his sexism illustrates his innate conservatism.

    It’s a fifty-fifty guess as to gender when a person doesn’t use a real first name, and if you use the phrase “hairy nose” to denote yourself then it tends to conjure the image of an ageing male with tufts of hair sprouting from the nose and ears.
    The pomposity and braggadocio of your posts tip the probability even further towards maleness.
    Of course hirsute braggarts can be female.

    I’ve never presumed you to be anything more than “N”…a letter of the alphabet…

  2. Teh_drewski – Fair enough on the pay rates for AEC officals. Am just one of the impatient ones. Already knew who i was voting for, just wanted to get in and out as quickly as possible.

  3. Here is the SMH’s:
    “We believe that if Mr Turnbull reconnects with his core values and keeps his promises, he deserves a chance to establish his own mandate.”

    No he doesn’t. His policies suck.

  6. MagicPudding and Kevin Bonham – haven’t both Windsor and Oakeshott explicitly said they will only support Turnbull?

  7. Bemused – “That’s interesting, I have always believed that electioneering material, other than HTVs, was not permitted.
    Certainly, I have never heard of it happening before.”

    Henderson gave them to me herself on the footpath outside.

  9. b.c. @ #1303 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 12:30 am

    Here is the SMH’s:
    “We believe that if Mr Turnbull reconnects with his core values and keeps his promises, he deserves a chance to establish his own mandate.”
    No he doesn’t. His policies suck.

    This is laughable. Turnbot has no core values. He is without any core at all.

  10. Briefly,

    It may be that Corbyn will be sacked too.

    I have been busy, and not paying as much attention as I could to the Brexit referendum, but I do wonder now why UK Labour and Corbyn could not rally the working classes.

  11. Michael – “I don’t think the Liberals will get much joy in handing out flyers to read: by the team people get to a pre-poll, they will just want to get in and out”

    Agree, i read them after the event and cheers on the post about the difference between pre-poll and election day rules on the use of flyers/leaflets.

  14. Americans would be wrong to see this as a faraway dispute with no bearing on our own politics. In the United States, demagoguery, populism and the stoking of nationalist fears are also winning hearts and minds – as well as votes for presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump. On Friday, Trump cheered the Brexit vote and seemed to welcome the subsequent collapse in value of the British pound and its impact on tourism (he owns a golf resort in Scotland), oblivious to the fact that the instantly weaker currency threatens U.S. jobs by reducing American exports to an important trading partner.

    Trump’s popularity is rooted in anger and frustration – and those emotions are not only felt on the right. A different sort of dissatisfaction – but dissatisfaction nonetheless – propelled Sen. Bernie Sanders’ improbably strong showing in the Democratic race.

    There are dangerous, demagogic, intolerant currents in American politics today. One lesson of the British vote is not to become complacent, not to assume that voters will eventually come to their senses and opt for the safe, responsible choice. As Trump moves from primary mode into the general election campaign, the message is clear: Don’t underestimate the power of angry voters.

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-brexit-trump-england-united-states-20160624-snap-story.html

  15. D and M it sounds like Corbyn was lukewarm supporting Remain (although from what I’ve read the campaign to stay was pretty ordinary all round)

  16. douglas and milko @ #1310 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 12:35 am

    Briefly,

    It may be that Corbyn will be sacked too.

    I have been busy, and not paying as much attention as I could to the Brexit referendum, but I do wonder now why UK Labour and Corbyn could not rally the working classes.

    I think they’re demoralised…defeat, repeated defeat, will do that…Labour in the UK is split, ill-led and uncertain.

    Luckily, here Labor is coherent and unified, despite the efforts of the Gs to rattle things.

  17. hairy nose @ #1315 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 12:52 am

    D and M it sounds like Corbyn was lukewarm supporting Remain (although from what I’ve read the campaign to stay was pretty ordinary all round)

    Working people themselves were divided, though they still voted to remain. The result will split both the Tories and Labour, no doubt.

  19. Headline: Theresa May emerges as “Stop Boris” candidate.

    It seems to me that the place is in uproar. And the backdown on NHS funding just goes to show that the Leave campaign had no “exit strategy” to start with. Wh

  20. Labor’s recovery and unity from 2013 until now is nothing short of astounding. The media unjustly gives Labor no credit for offering unity, stability and policy innovation against a first-term government with a thumping majority which has nevertheless been a complete shambles. Whatever happens next Saturday, this has been a crowning achievement for Labor, and one it will carry into the next parliament, win, lose, or draw.

  22. jimmydoyle @ #1320 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 1:04 am
    hairy nose @ #1318 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 12:59 am

    One of the things I’ve discerned from voters – other than among the rejectionist cohorts – is a generally quite amiable attitude to Labor. Voters generally greet us with warm smiles, a willingness to talk and offer good wishes to the campaign. This has not been a commonplace for WA Labor for quite a while. I’m sure they’re glad they have the opportunity to support us. I’m sure they hope for our success.

  23. The country deserves so much better than the Liberals intend us to have. I think voters believe that too. Maybe I’m just light-headed with my own hopes. But I think voters can subscribe to optimism and that Labor represents this.

  25. Here is the SMH’s:

    “We believe that if Mr Turnbull reconnects with his core values and keeps his promises, he deserves a chance to establish his own mandate.”

    Hardly a ringing endorsement.

    The point being of course, that if he abandoned his core values last year when he was on top of a pile of writhing alligators, how in the hell is he going to do it when they’re on top of him?

    If that’s all the Herald has, then bring it on.

  28. plus it says IF he reconnects – what, in the next week? Well that ain’t gonna happen so I guess they’ll have to support Bill!

  29. This is a line ball election. Labor may be 50/50 on TPP but they are seriously competitive in enough seats to be in with a very big chance to cause an upset.

    Yup. But people still want to call it early. This one folks, will get called on the day. I’ll laugh if it has to wait for W.A. for a change.

  30. Headline: Theresa May emerges as “Stop Boris” candidate.

    Interestingly, I mused on Twitter earlier about the prospect of a “Stop Boris” candidate and I tried to speculate who’d they’d tie their flag to. While Osbourne seemed like the intuitive choice, the problem is he is very similar to Cameron and carries all the similar problems Cameron has in this environment. So, I concluded that May might be the go-to for such a movement.

  33. b.c. @ #1303 Sunday, June 26, 2016 at 12:30 am

    Here is the SMH’s:
    “We believe that if Mr Turnbull reconnects with his core values and keeps his promises, he deserves a chance to establish his own mandate.”
    No he doesn’t. His policies suck.

    What a joke.
    If Turnbull reconnects with his supposed core values he will get dumped by his own party.

  34. Turnbull had his chance to establish “his mandate”, he blew it. In my opinion, if Turnbull had established “his mandate” he would be the PM for a number of terms. He didn’t have the courage

  35. Douglas And Milko
    After 4 attempts at logging in (I am sick of this ) re @smh editorial I put on twitter what I thought, considering the time in Oz, thought nothing will come back WRONG, think smh going to regret this 4 cancellations of subs so far wait til I retweet in the morning :devil: if icon works

  36. Labor’s recovery and unity from 2013 until now is nothing short of astounding.

    Let’s not get too self-congratulatory about this. Bill Shorten does not have a scrap of the prime ministerial about him. For whatever reason his minders have elected to write for him every single line that comes out of his mouth, and he even fails to deliver them in a remotely convincing way. It projects a profound lack of intelligence and persuasive skills. Good job Labor for doing the bare minimum of remaining united; great job for actually taking the fight to the Liberals on actual policy detail (up until the Mediscare campaign, more or less); but if you had elected a leader with the capacity to think and speak for themselves, your victory would not be in doubt. We would not be staring down the barrel of three more years of arch-conservative government.

  38. tom the first and best @ #1119 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 9:14 pm

    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/24/reachtel-51-49-coalition-2/comment-page-23/#comment-2428485
    “The weakest leader of the Libs since Downer” does not say he is weaker than Downer, it says that he is weaker than Howard, Abbott and Nelson but Downer was weaker. Everybody who knows what since means knows that.

    Mathematically, in the strictest sense of mathematics, you are correct.

    By common usage, however (which reigns supreme in matters like this) you are incorrect. I interpret it to mean ‘since and including Downer’, as I think most other people would.

  39. kevin-one-seven @ #1128 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 9:27 pm

    Turnbull is Downer without the fishnet stockings, maybe.

    K17, that was always an unfair thing to hang on Downer. Out of the goodness of his heart he agreed to get dressed up, including the fishnet stockings, in what seemed like a good cause.

    That episode was the reason that I never agree to dressing up as a woman for school productions. A photo out of context can be used to ridicule, as it has been for Downer.

    The ‘principal boy’ in a pantomime is another matter entirely. A beautiful young woman dressed as a boy and in fishnet stockings is usually a sight for sore eyes. Downer (or me) as the Dame in pantomime, not so much.

  40. I do wonder now why UK Labour and Corbyn could not rally the working classes.

    UK Labour, like the ALP, has a weak relationship with the working classes these days. Decades of economic policies that have increased the precariousness of employment and increased inequality of wealth and income have done immense damage.

  41. Some of my ‘green’ friends are all for another vote on #brexit because the people are only now working out what it will mean.

    I asked them if it was then ok for the religious lobby/ Abbott and Co to ignore the plebiscite on same-sex marriage (if we have one)….. [insert the sound of crickets] followed by a ‘No’, they have to accept it.

    Hypocrits.

    My point. I’m sick of all people, from all sides, who play this dangerous game of not accepting the results of a democratic vote.

  42. Mari,

    Douglas And Milko
    After 4 attempts at logging in (I am sick of this ) re @smh editorial I put on twitter what I thought, considering the time in Oz, thought nothing will come back WRONG, think smh going to regret this 4 cancellations of subs so far wait til I retweet in the morning :devil: if icon works

    Thanks for letting me know. I will check twitter out now (devil)

  47. briefly
    Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:18 pm
    The older, richer and more chauvinist elements of the English middle class have voted to abolish the employment opportunities of millions of young people and to liquidate whole slabs of their industrial economy. They have been hallucinating.

    That about sums it up. England has just voted to become a quaint little island of the west of Europe; bit sad I supposed for the young who would like a job. News Flash for the oldies; the Empire was gone before you joined Europe; it isn’t coming back.

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