The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.
This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.
We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:
• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).
• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).
• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.
• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.
ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:
Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.
Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.
Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.
Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.
Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.
Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:
Surprised no movement 2PP
How will Turnbull handle minority gov?
Put me down for 84 labor, 8 Indies for whoever is doing tip sheet thanks
Riley on Ch 7 claiming that the fallout from Brexit is a great advantage to Turnbull.
These results all rest on how preferences are allocated. Won’t know till Saturday week.
Where does 42.4 and down 1.1 come from? I can’t see it in the results.
[Riley on Ch 7 claiming that the fallout from Brexit is a great advantage to Turnbull.]
I hate the way journos do this.
Ch 10, Ch 7 and doubtless all other MSM making a big thing of financial instability after Brexit. Doing their best to frighten people.
That’s not a good poll for Labor IMO. I think we were all expecting something better than that in light of the single seat polling ReachTel has also done.
It’s not an unreasonable assumption to be made, unfortunately. Especially with the media working as hard as it can to regurgitate government talking points and bash Labor ones.
FTSE opened down almost 9% but has pared that back to under 5%
Dow Futures are currently down 2.6%
Put me down for ALP 78, (Green, X, other) 10, LNP 62.
William can you explain why the big swings in individual polling is not showing up in the national polling? It feels like 2013 re-visited.
Advantage coalition.What a load of tripe about the Libs being better economic managers. Dickhead Riley should read this https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jun/14/new-research-abbott-and-turnbull-the-worst-economic-managers-since-menzies
zoidlord @ #2 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:16 pm
He won’t.
Firstly the LNP have shown they can’t negotiate. Secondly, the RW will remove him for failing to win outright.
I’m still optomistic that Labor will win
I’m starting to revise my earlier thinking. I reckon we might see one day of major market volatility (ie today) as the markets digest this unexpected turn of events. Then by early next week, everyone will realise life goes on pretty much as usual, with Cameron having laid out a sensible timeline, and markets will turn their attention to something else. I hope that by tomorrow week, polling day, voter thoughts around Brexit will be very much in the background.
Darn
Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:19 pm
That’s not a good poll for Labor IMO. I think we were all expecting something better than that in light of the single seat polling ReachTel has also done.
Agreed. Labor PV has gone nowhere. You have to rely on “others” being friendly, which is the big unknown.
UK Labour make the ALP look like consummate professionals.
The winds of change are blowing in some very disparate places and not in others.
Labor are harnessing the mood for change but some people are just looking for stability in uncertain times.
Andrew Gee, as the new member for Calare, will join Tony Burke from the Sydney Uni law course of 1988 as members of parliament
I’d be buying on Monday.
compact crank @ #18 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:25 pm
Because they are.
After saying Brexit will help Turnbull, Laurie Oakes says new Labor internal polling shows “a late move towards Labor” in “seven or eight seats not regarded as likely wins before”.
https://twitter.com/9NewsSyd/status/746253782787383302
I see this mob listed on the ASX this week – sign of the times ?
https://www.droneshield.com/
I think the poll is an improvement over last week’s. I just don’t see Turnbull shooting up in approval by that much for no particular reason. Again, its just one of many polls.
Me too. Primaries seem to have changed enough to bring it back to 50-50.
ALP +0.7
GRN +0.7
LNP -0.8
(That is the pre-forced undecideds. They don’t have last week on their table for easy comparison of forced undecided)
Riley saying advantageous to turnbull
Can do opposite, libs run around saying sky is falling, don’t panic, trust us?
That will work
[ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else]
Is this true? Warringah – Marie Rowland?
Ummm William, NXT is standing in Calare
ReachTEL @ReachTEL 7m7 minutes ago
A point of note: our latest federal poll only included Nick Xenophon Team in the read-out in SA. We removed them from all other states.
[They don’t have last week on their table for easy comparison of forced undecided]
They do, its on the interactive graph.
Gorkay, just one of many national neutral polls showing LNP with a reduced majority unfortunately.
Bad timing. I’m beginning the think this ‘scare campaign’ shit has taken hold.
William – are you expecting the ReachTel Tasmania results tonight?
William B
Oakes did say that the Brexit result will benefit the Liberals, but also said that Labor would be doing another mini launch on weekend in Qld as internal polling suggests a movement to them in several seats there
[Alias
Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:24 pm
I’m starting to revise my earlier thinking. I reckon we might see one day of major market volatility (ie today) as the markets digest this unexpected turn of events. Then by early next week, everyone will realise life goes on pretty much as usual, with Cameron having laid out a sensible timeline, and markets will turn their attention to something else. I hope that by tomorrow week, polling day, voter thoughts around Brexit will be very much in the background.]
Sooner or later the ‘profit takers’ will move into the market and cause a correction. It seems to happen that there is initially a massive over-reaction to an event, followed by a reassessment of the strength of external forces on the market fundamentals. Now that Cameron has announced a time for his departure there is more political certainty in the UK at least in the short term. Doubtless the Tories will be breathlessly urging their contacts in the financial markets to show a bit of restraint, if only to try and protect the Tories’ reputation as financial managers.
More stability will not be to Turnbull’s advantage.
Thanks SK @6:32,
And William has it as well up page 🙂
William but internal polling is unreliable though right?
From the old thread, I was SMS polled by Morgan on Federal voting intentions.
Maybe they will stop whatever funkytown readouts they are doing and give us some proper polls again.
Choices were LNP, LAB, GRN, FF, Katter, NXT, other. I chose NXT.
Q – no sweat. Only just noticed it myself.
I don’t see how a combined ALP+GRN of +1.5 and a LNP of -1.1 didn’t shift the TPP?
BBC Scotland News @BBCScotlandNews
As Scotland backs #EUref Remain, #indyref2 is trending online. @BBCtrending investigates (link: http://bbc.in/292PEJT) bbc.in/292PEJT
@Steele,
%1 move to Labor in 2PP is about what you can expect in a week. Once new Newspoll, essential and IPSOS come in than we can have a look at where bludgertrack and KB’s aggregate sits.
William, without revealing trade secrets, how much does this ReachTel shift your BludgerTracker TPP? Does it come out exactly 50/50, or does Labor’s TPP go to 50.1 or 50.2?
Malcolm Turnbull, the David Cameron of Australian politics. A Moderate Tory taking his party backwards from the last election. : )
Just looked at European markets.
UK down only 4%, but the others are 6-10% down. US only 3%.
The thinking must be Brexit is bad for UK, butVERY VERY bad for Europe.
Still basically a deadlock. Polls are mostly inert
The estimate is that an eyewatering 3 Trillion dollars has just been wiped off stockmarket values.
TPP didn’t shift because it is respondent-allocated preferences. The primaries moved in the ALP’s favour, and TPP would have moved to Labor (subject to rounding).
Surely if the last poll forced a nomination of primary vote and included Xenophon outside SA, and this one didn’t then they can’t be considered directly comparable? Maybe it doesn’t make much difference but I don’t see the point altering a poll midway through a critical period unless it is in the direction of gauging more information that wasn’t previously considered in designing the questions , not less