ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition just keeps its nose in front on the latest ReachTEL national poll. Also featured: marginal seat polling galore.

The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.

This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.

We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:

• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).

• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).

• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.

• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.

ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:

Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.

Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.

Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.

Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.

Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.

Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 27
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  2. So we continue to have Reachtel and Ipsos giving Labor primary votes around 33-34 but Newspoll and Essential 36-37. Who will be right? Reachtel seems to be the worst for Labor at the moment.

  3. The Reachtel figures look a bit odd. NXT in SA is polling around 25% and that translates to 1.75% at a national level – not 1.4% (=20%).

  4. From the Guardian:

    We might never find out who saw them, but there is plenty of speculation in the City that hedge funds commissioned exit polls yesterday that got things even more wrong than the opinion polls and the betting markets.

    One trader says:

    “Sterling was so strong last night that it suggests that somebody had very strong data that the vote was going to be Remain.

    Some hedge fund has probably paid about half a million for it and the data was absolutely terrible.”

    Every cloud, and all that.

  5. Just to join the word jousting fun….Australian Labor makes both UK Tories and LNP look like oppositions. In relation to Cameron, fancy getting such a good election win and then throwing it all away………….In relation to Turnbull, he could be the leader of a one of the few first term governments to be thrown out of office for years. Both the Tories in the UK and the local conservatives have a terrible time ahead of them. Disunity, discredit and in-fighting loom.

  6. I think I must have misread this poll. Others are talking about positive shifts that I didn’t see. So perhaps not as disappointing as I first thought.

  7. Good evening all,

    Reachtel is fine. A move to labor on primaries can never be regarded as a bad thing I would think.

    This election is too close to call as it has been all along. One week to go with both parties neck and neck. No need to get too upset.

    Cheers.

  9. Remember the academic paper that said there were more chicks in marginals and chicks were more likely to vote Labor. Maybe we will see a reverse-sophomore effect. Why not?

  10. Maybe it doesn’t make much difference but I don’t see the point altering a poll midway through a critical period unless it is in the direction of gauging more information that wasn’t previously considered in designing the questions , not less

    You’re not really gauging information when you record people as voting for a party they will not in fact be voting for. You don’t know for sure who the candidates are going to be until nominations close, and when you do, it makes sense to acknowledge the reality of the situation.

  11. Symmetry

    Cameron won election, but promised divisive plebiscite. Resigned.

    Turnbull may win election, but promising divisive plebiscite. Boned.

  13. In support of the “she’ll be right mate” when it comes to currencies, I notice the mighty Oz is worth 74 cents against the US, 53 pence and 66 Euros. While the Oz went up to 55 against the pound, the Oz against the US and Euro is where it has been for some time. Seems to suggest that as the Brits have two years to sort themselves out, the market has factored this in already. Share prices are not so hot.

  14. Go Oakey in Cowper,reckon pruneface won’t be feeling good. Please let my postal vote arrive here in Greek islands, AEC told me approx 25thjune will arrive

  15. I’ll be waiting for Sales to call turnbull a Liar tonight……repeatedly….

    Nope won’t be holding my breath.

    And yes I know…I can go to Helen Wait…

  17. Gee, just a week out and the LNP have not shaken Labor off yet. Still could come, but there might be a bit of concern it might not happen.

  18. wakefield @ #53 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:50 pm

    The Reachtel figures look a bit odd. NXT in SA is polling around 25% and that translates to 1.75% at a national level – not 1.4% (=20%).

    If the SA NXT value is 1.4% of the national PV, then NXT would be getting about 22% of the SA PV….could be right.

  20. This poll is all within MOE. Too early to tell the impact of Brexit.

    (Repeated from end of previous thread). Evening all. Everyone else is spinning the UK Brexit decision for all it is worth so I will have a go.

    Regarding the decision to leave, I think it is understandable why so many Brits have decided to go. They are not all racists (though some are). There were other good reasons to go. The EU has become a costly, aloof and out of touch bureaucracy. Those countries that pay high EU taxes but get few farm subsidies are worse off. UK, Holland, Sweden and Finland are all in that category. Germany would be too but its bankers get bailed out by the ECB when they make stupid loans to bankrupt states. The EU is good for all bankers, but not necessarily for the other 95% of citizens. The EU was founded on wonderful principles, and should be good. But if after 15 years whole countries are worse off, then the reality is badly flawed.

    As for Australia, Brexit can be a two sided coin. It will not cause huge turmoil here, unless we allow ourselves to be talked into a panic. The UK is less than 3% of global GDP. Politically, it is a vote for change, against the ruling conservative government. It is also a vote against an economic scare campaign by a government hostage to its countries bankers, against the interests of its people. Let us hope Australian people take a leaf out of the British book and also vote for change. Nobody wants to be ruled by aloof bankers.

  21. 2h2 hours ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    My take of #ausvotes from working on prepolling today.
    1. Ppl made their minds up ages ago.
    2. Ppl made their minds up ages ago.

  22. Again we get an “others” vote of 11 percent. There’s been a lot of discussion about “other” “rejectionist” sentiment and I certainly pick that up myself. Here in South Australia it is being expressed through support for NXT. What I am wondering is, are a lot of people telling pollsters they will vote “other” going to have a realistic way to actually vote? Will they just vote for any old independent candidate or in fact on the day just settle on one of the known parties? I am just struggling to see a 1011 percent “others” vote in the HoR. As for the Senate, well there are plenty of opportunities to express an anti established party vote; we could get some seriously interesting Senate results.

  24. Watch: David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister after #EURef loss http://snpy.tv/291iYl8

    I guess he had to, didn’t he? People at work were saying the referendum may not even mean a withdrawal, and that any timetable is going to take years to come to fruition.

    I admit I haven’t really followed this issue close enough to offer any thoughts on the subject however.

  25. Darn
    Friday, June 24, 2016 at 6:19 pm
    That’s not a good poll for Labor IMO. I think we were all expecting something better than that in light of the single seat polling ReachTel has also done.

    ——————

    National poll done in majority safe liberal /national parry electorates

  27. I put this on the last thread, so repeating.
    I asked a little while ago about polling on Senate voting intentions. I was just now robot led by Reachtel and it included a question on Senate voting intention. Spooky!

  28. 4h
    Michael McCarthy‏ @MMcCarthy_CMC
    “Brexit could be followed by Grexit, Departugal, Italeave, Czechout, Oustria, Finish, Slovakout, Latervia, Byegium. Only Remania will stay”

  32. From uk Telegraph

    Triggering Article 50, formally notifying the intension to withdraw, starts a two-year clock running. After that, the Treaties that govern membership no longer apply to Britain. The terms of exit will be negotiated between Britain’s 27 counterparts, and each will have a veto over the conditions.

    It will also be subject to ratification in national parliaments, meaning, for example, that Belgian MPs could stymie the entire process.

    Two vast negotiating teams will be created, far larger than those seen in the British renegotiation. The EU side is likely to be headed by one of the current Commissioners.
    Untying Britain from the old membership is the easy bit. Harder would be agreeing a new trading relationship, establishing what tariffs and other barriers to entry are permitted, and agreeing on obligations such as free movement. Such a process, EU leaders claim, could take another five years.

    Business leaders want the easiest terms possible, to prevent economic harm. But political leaders say the conditions will be brutal to discourage other states from following suit.

    So the UK ( Londoners ) will be begging between sympathetic banking EU friends in the EU & vengeful EU politicians ….good luck.

  35. Just saw a very powerful ad from the Australian College of General Practitioners on channel 7 about the Medicare rebate freeze – finished by saying “your health should never be determined by your wealth.”

  36. I give a Gonski‏ @igiveagonski
    New research shows spending on education far better at boosting economic growth than corporate tax cuts #gonski

  39. About the “others” vote,
    In my local seat there are only 3 candidates , lib, lab and green. My mate was saying he will vote independent . He obviously didn’t know he won’t have that choice in lower house .

  44. Interesting chart of the FTSE – showing todays -5% move in relation to its rally since mid June – ie its given back about the same as it was ramped up prior to the vote ?

    So far anyway…..

  46. CTar1
    #84 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:25 pm

    So you actually got another visa!

    Yes, it only took 10 days.
    Oh the joy of Vietnamese bureaucracy.

  48. WB…when do you expect to see the Mercury reports..??
    At 8:30pm.

    I though Kevin B said 8.30 am in an earlier entry. Typo?

  49. Bluey Bulletin No 89

    SPIV TOWN
    Gambaro chooses the best electorate office possible consistent with some possibly connection with a possible developer possible friend. Who knows? The electorate office is poorly located, appears to lack basics like wheelchair access, and costs the taxpayer a bit more. Bluey assumes that someone is happy.
    SIN BIN
    Curtis gets a year for insider training that netted him $1.4 million. Bluey reckons that, all up, it is not bad work if you can get it.
    KEATING!
    Keating chooses the obscure medium of the AFR letters to the editor to piss all over Turnbull’s lies about Keating’s views about tax cuts.
    ROCK RATS
    Hitherto, Gibrarlter goes where Great Britain goes. Brexit willy nilly must mean Gibxit. The Gib Rats know where the gravy lives. The vote was about 19000 Gibstay and 600 Gibxit. Bluey reckons that if GB Brexits, Gib will Gibxit from GB, the Scots wilt Scotxit from GB, and the Orkneys will Orkneyxit from Scotland. And stockmarkets around the world will do $3 trillionxit.
    DEPUTY DAWG
    Apparently the Monkey Pod Gang wants to roll JBishop and Payne. Bluey reckons bring it on! Bluey reckons forget blood-letting. He confidently expects Liberal wounds to leak bile.
    TURNBULL GROUPIE
    Predictably, Turnbull used Sales’ hand-on-heart gambit in a presser today. He also called Shorten a liar about ten times. In days when Turnbull was a bit more candid: “In an ideal world, every Australian would have private health insurance. That would be the best, that would be the best outcome.”
    457s? NOT TEN FOUR!
    Bluey has stated repeatedly that the biggest issue not addressed is the situation where there are 800,000 workers on visas that enable them to be exploited mercilessly and that there are 1,000,000 Australians underemployed. Bluey notes that this morning Shorten referred to tightening up on the 457s. Bluey reckons there needs to be root and branch reform of IR as it relates to foreign workers.
    FOMENTING HATE
    There is absolutely no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Brexit Referendum in Britain has caused huge and lasting social damage. Can anyone seriously doubt that the marriage equality plebiscite is going to cause huge damage as well? Bluey reckons that Turnbull has questions to answer.
    Di NATBULL
    Once again Turnbull spent some time today touting the Greens vision splendid of a Labor/Greens Coalition. Bluey congratulates Di Natale on some of the most effective support from a Left party to an ultra-right Party in recent political history. Bluey reckons the Dirty Dealer knows what he is about with his destructive behaviours. What Bluey cannot quite understand is why the Dirty Dealer wants Turnbull to be prime minister.

    BLACK SWAN EVENT
    BREXIT. Turnbull has the advantage of incumbency and the Liberals being superior economic managers and a tummy rub from Sales, while Shorten was there when Labor saved Australia during the GFC. Bluey is uncertain how the narratives will go here. In any case, Bluey reckons that Brexit froze the campaign solid today.

    POLLING
    All over the place like Eddie McGuire and Sam Newman commentating on female footie writers. Bluey reckons that if he knew how the preferences would really flow he would be tempted to take a punt. Bluey reckons that Labor is still in with a show. Bluey notes that the Reachtel numbers are pretty well static. As if the whole last week did not exist.

    Verdict for the day: Evens
    Cumulative tally: Labor 57 Coalition 36

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