The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.
This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.
We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:
• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).
• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).
• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.
• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.
ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:
Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.
Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.
Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.
Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.
Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.
Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:
Bluepill – Labor is the favourite on Sportsbet in the minimum ten gains I mentioned except Hindmarsh, where I believe NXT will deliver the seat to Labor. All the line-ball seats I mentioned have in many cases reasonable odds on Labor winning, and in others have had favourable polling. An unbiased view (which you are not capable of) of the seats I mentioned as line-ball would say that Labor has a good chance in all of them. A hung parliament is a very strong possibility.
C@tmomma
Stock markets in Europe are doing double digit one day plunges. Even Greece has got into the act with a 13% plunge.
It adds up to many trillions.
If the All Ords goes up on Monday, Bluey may reconsider…
Darn you know what its like when you get older – the hair just sprouts everywhere ….
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 10.25pm: The risk with dumping Mr Turnbull if there’s a hung parliament is the same as was the case with Mr Rudd: he’d be likely to resign on the spot, triggering a by-election. And the outcome of a by-election in such circumstances could be totally unpredictable, especially if there’s a half-decent swing against him in Wentworth next week.
I can’t get over some of the defeatist crap here.
This is a line ball election. Labor may be 50/50 on TPP but they are seriously competitive in enough seats to be in with a very big chance to cause an upset.
Let’s see who wins the policy launches tomorrow…
First Dog seems to have been neutered by Lenore Taylor during the election campaign. Too Turnbull unfriendly?
The ALP could do worse than point out that the steady economic management in risky times which Mr Turnbull talks about almost always involves cutbacks and austerity which hit the poor and middle class while leaving the top end untouched.
Kevin17 – I dunno. I think even the most ardent right-wingers would rather be milking the benefits of being in government for just a little bit longer than deliberately sabotage government-formation. I think the hard right would wait until after Turnbull signs an agreement before making trouble. Don’t forget, If Turnbull is forced into minority government or even if he only has a 1-3 seat majority, the hard right will be able to extort all sorts of concessions out of Turnbull. As I said before, we haven’t even begun to see the true chaos of a minority government.
hairy nose @ #1185 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:19 pm
The classical use of the term “chauvinist” was derived from French politics. It described an arrogantly patriotic conservatism. The term was borrowed by feminists and modified to the familiar “male chauvinism”. The English middle class have exhibited a defensive, petulant, petit patriotism to the question of their economic future….hence, their “chauvinism”…as I see it -:)
It is both demoralised and demoralising. They have voted from fear…from reaction. It is terribly sad…imo
cupidstunt
Almost forgivable compared to the Septic Tanks voting in Dubya not once but twice.
Puff
Those providers get thousands for every job ‘outcome’. What we need are active labour market programs designed to get to tackle the fundamentals behind disadvantage.. US and UK programs looking at multiple disadvantage for high risk groups on a spacial and micro level work – indiscriminate programs with wage subsidies, as favored by the tories here do not work. All it has done is just create a new industry dependent on Government hand outs.
briefly – On election night I’ll be ecstatic if Labor wins, consoled by a minority Liberal situation, and disappointed by a Liberal win. But regardless, I will thankful that it’s over!
Lat night I needed to meet someone in Town (Sydney near the Townhall, where my partner had been on pre-poll duty).
It was freezing, and so I figured a pub near the Town Hall, where we could get a beer and a quick meal before catching the bus home was a good idea.
I went to the Edinburgh Castle, a favourite of Expat Scots, and there was not even standing room. they all seemed to be watching something – could have been sport, but I wondered if there was Brexit stuff on some News Channel.
My next try was the Criterion, which is the Irish hang-out. Busy, but not hopeless, and downstairs was warm and quiet. When I ordered the beers, the bartender was Irish, and, having just heard about Brexit, I almost hugged him and told him how glad I was that my EU passport is Irish and not from the UK.
I find my EU citizenship so useful for my work. I can go to Europe for work, and not worry about being a few days over three months if it takes me that long to do what I need. I am always paid from Australia, but if not, I would not need a work visa.
I feel so sorry for all those young Brits, who have integrated with Europe: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/young-brits-declare-brexit-result-not-in-my-name/7543316
Also, there has been some commentary tonight suggesting that UK austerity is the EU’s fault, and that with the UK out of the EU, austerity int he UK will end.
Nothing can be further from the truth. The Brexit victory has given legitimacy to Boris Johnson, Nigel Farange, and other assorted RWNJs. And now, it is much harder for the young to escape, go to Europe, learn some languages and get some really useful life experience.
Greece was badly done by, because of the neo-liberal provisions of the treaty of Maastrict, but this was just a reason for the UK to agitate to get those provisions changed. But Britain, it has not been damaged by the EU. Its austerity problems are all home-grown.
I sense Brexit is already fading here on PB at least. However this is an excellent article discussing why the majority of Brits opted to leave..
“‘If you’ve got money, you vote in … if you haven’t got money, you vote out’
Brexit is about more than the EU: it’s about class, inequality, and voters feeling excluded from politics. So how do we even begin to put Britain the right way up? “
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=179067&subid=11549147&CMP=ema_632
Didn’t Thatcher win 3 elections? 1979, 1983 and 1987, with that fool Major winning in 1992
PENDANT – Doesn’t matter. You’ve got to put yourself in the shoes of a party which has just lost a huge majority after one term, is in a hung parliament situation and has a dud leader they all hate. There is a good chance they’ll be a lot more interested in getting square with each other, and getting rid of Malcolm, than forming a government. Quite a few might even have the self-awareness to realise they are not fit to govern. They’ll hope Shorten will form a minority government and re-run the Gillard years.
This is all speculation. But I remember when the tories beat the Gordon Brown, there was talk about Labour trying to form a government with the LibDems, but a lot of Labour people said that the party would be better off in Opposition, licking its wounds. I think a lot of Libs would feel like that.
The party more believable this week on job creation will win the election.
We’ll hear more about their initiatives for Queensland tomorrow.
Quite a few seats on a knife’s edge in QLD. Libs will need more than waffle to match Labor.
Where’s Meguire Bob when you need him?
Seems the slogan from Labor..
Bill Shorten @billshortenmp
Seven more days to elect a united Labor government that puts people first. #ausvotes
(link: https://amp.twimg.com/v/d3783475-4b22-4116-a946-ed0d74ae1418) amp.twimg.com/v/d3783475-4b2…
I wonder whether that Age editorial was planned to neuter Turnbull’s launch?
I heard somewhere that the ALP costings will be given on Monday … not sure where now (can’t remember) but it would fulfill another promise to the electorate and reassure them that Labor can be trusted to do what they say. Also from this, the uncertainty from Brexit can be cited as a reason to be cautious about believing ANY predictions on budgets … including the Libs
kevin-one-seven @ #1192 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:25 pm
I think they will not be able to dump him if there’s a hung Parliament. This would be to repudiate the result of the election. The Independents in the House would have no reason to support the Liberals in Government if T were replaced by, say, Bishop or Andrews. Certainly, the RW would want to dump him. But they would be unable to do so. They would de-legitimise their party were they to change leaders. Perversely, a narrow loss may work better for T than a narrow win. Only if the Liberals were prepared to go into Opposition would they contemplate dumping T if they held say, 72-73 seats.
They may figure temporary Opposition with a “hero-Leader” (like Abbott, they will suppose) would be better than a feeble Government.
JD – The hard-right can extort concessions out of Turnbull, of course, in a hung parliament situation. But that means Turnbull could NOT reach an agreement with the cross-benchers. That is another big problem for turnbull. He could not reach an agreement which would straddle the goals of Monkey Pod and, say, Nicky X. In fact X would be absolutely mad to jump into bed with Turnbull and the libs for that very reason. He couldn’t trust that Turnbull would still be the PM in a week’s time and he would know that Turnbull could not deliver centerist government because of Monkey Pod.
There is a person on this blog who reminds me very much of Generic Person.
(I’m sad about Brexit too Briefly) – the chauvinism works both ways re Nicholas – his sexism illustrates his innate conservatism.
Yeah Thatcher was elected 3 times but got knifed in 3rd term.
Briefly – But because I don’t think that Turnbull could stitch together a minority government with cross-bencher support (for the reasons given above) I think Turnbull will certainly get axed after his attempt to form a government fails (if not before)
Britain was only protected from EU-forced austerity by virtue of being outside the Eurozone.
The establishment European left, including – or perhaps especially, UK Labour – desperately needs to move past its reflexive and blind defense of the EU, and start pushing for wholesale political and economic reform of EU agreements and institutions. Until it does that, the far-right will continue to be the home of the tens of millions of Europeans disillusioned, disempowered, and hurt by the European project – and they will rip it apart if they can.
Kevin17 – as I said, A Coalition minority government is a recipe for chaos. Labor should be elected on stability alone.
I rhink this is a picture of Hairy Nose. The gender is not obvious to me on first inspection 😉
https://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=
&imgrefurl=http://www.factzoo.com/mammals/northern-hairy-nosed-wombat.html&h=512&w=510&tbnid=VPbrvFA_42gNHM:&tbnh=186&tbnw=185&docid=dngw6PxM8lZJiM&itg=1&client=firefox-b&usg=__HByOuSG-r32sZ2H9W79tGec052s=
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 10.42pm: Well, you might be right, we are postulating strange people under rare stresses, and the world is an amazing place. I wouldn’t underestimate the extent to which politicians will do almost anything to stay in power.
But another factor to consider is that Mr Turnbull would, presumably, have to be dumped by a party room meeting. Such a meeting would not take place until after Senate count is finished, which will be at least a month after polling day. In the meantime, the makeup of the House will have become known, Mr Turnbull will (in the absence of a clear ALP victory) still be PM, and negotiations with the cross-benchers in the House would be able to proceed. I would anticipate that Mr Turnbull would try to stitch up a deal for supply and confidence before the party room meets. And I would also anticipate that he would want the deal to be for them to support a Turnbull government rather than any old coalition government, as was the case with the deals after the 2010 election.
If the cross benchers wanted to play really tough, they could make it clear that in the absence of Mr Turnbull they would support a Labor government, and then, if Mr Turnbull happened to get rolled, he could quite legitimately advise the GG to invite Mr Shorten to form a government.
norwester @ #1217 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:44 pm
QLD is all-important, as usual….!
Even in the Thatcher years Murdoch was doing secret deals. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/28/how-margaret-thatcher-and-rupert-murdoch-made-secret-deal
What an arm wrestle – with six days to go!
Seems there is still a decent chunk of undecideds and lukewarm Lib supporters. And the swings are happening in enough Lib seats to make it closer than it perhaps should be on polling aggregation.
What is the record for the most number of seats declared at under 1% majority? This stat could be tested next Saturday.
Rossco
Whatever happened to the ACTU? They barely seem to exist anymore. I used to always know who was their boss; now I have no idea. You see Change and GetUp and the IPA all the time but the ACTU doesn’t seem to be a player.
Sohar,
Yes, I have noticed this. I really miss his incisive commentary. He was the reason I subscribed to Crikey. However, Poll Bludger now keeps me here.
I wonder who the Sydney Morning Herald will endorse?
hairy nose @ #1224 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:48 pm
-:)
I do agree!!
pedant @ #1230 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:53 pm
pedant..you’re on the money there
I’m not sure that Brexit is the big vote winner for Malcolm that he and the Murdoch press are expecting.
And enough of the defeatism in here. I think this election still can be won by either side, or there’s a decent chance of a hung parliament.
norwester @ #1233 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:54 pm
Labor will campaign to the last hour and the last vote.
Cupidstunt
#1225 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:49 pm
It most probably would have been in the first term if it wasn’t for the Falkland War.
Bloody Argentinians!
Thanks for that Douglas and Milko – brushed up quite well…
This election is a real contest. Don’t be sucked in people. It is close.
Remember too that Dutton’s latest big boats scare campaign lasted all of one day, despite some of the panic in this group.
Shorten can’t control the media, as in the ABC and Murdoch, so if the two of them want to continue to be pro Turnball, so be it.
He’s totally outcampaigned Malcolm, in my opinion, and at the worst, I’ll expect Labor will win back enough seats so that it’s in a good position to win in 2019.
And the Labor campaign is a whole lot more professional and better organised than in 2013.
I wonder how successful the new approach of using Obama like tactics to target individual voters in marginal seats will be?
Alas the ALP doesn’t have the financial resources of the other side.
hairy nose @ #1185 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 10:19 pm
I made the same assumption purely on the basis that no woman would use your screen name. 😀
Bob Hawke, as President of the ACTU (1969-1980), was regarded as the second most powerful person in Australia, after the PM. He was a household name, as . No one can name the head of the ACTU today (I had to look it up). The ACTU was increasingly eclipsed and excluded from the councils of power from the time Howard came to power in 1996. This was largely owing to changes in the economy and the workforce, but Howard certainly helped move things along.
That would strongly depend on the seat count. If, say, Labor had 69-70 seats to the Coalition’s 73-75, with 6-7 crossbenchers, it would be inadvisable and probably impossible for Labor to form government, as they would have to rely on all of the crossbenchers – and Katter, McGowan (and Oakeshott and Windsor, if they win) would not back Labor.