Six weeks into the campaign, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is where it was at the start of the campaign, and has been at every point since – with nothing at all to separate the Coalition and Labor on two-party preferred. The only changes since a week ago have occurred at state level, where the Coalition is down two on the seat projection in New South Wales, but up one each in Queensland and Western Australia. The latest addition to the aggregate is your regular weekly Essential Research, which is unchanged on two-party preferred at 51-49 in favour of Labor. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 40%, while Labor, the Greens are the Nick Xenophon Team are steady on 37%, 10% and 4% respectively. Speaking of the Nick Xenophon Team, it should be noted that the BludgerTrack model ignores its existence so far as the seat projection is concerned, so the following should probably be interpreted as pointing to a hung parliament:
I think that Sprocket has an unhealthy obsession with the Telecrap, like I have with your ABC!
Surely that poster is a joke, but sadly I think its true. Desperation writ large.
SPROCKET – Thanks. Opened it up and couldn’t stop laughing. Not exactly subtle!
Meher Baba holds different positions to those held by most posters here and sets out his case. I don’t see why anyone has a problem with that.
Boris,
The president of the AMA:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-22/election-2016-medicare-ama-bill-shorten/7531978
Meher
The co-payment is a seriously bad idea, because anything that makes GP visits unaffordable places extra strain on the hospital system. Sure $5 does not seem so much, BUT at the end of the pay week or pension period it just might not be available. Especially because most health practices now demand that you pay up front electronically say $65 and then get the rebate back. If there is a co-payment requirement, people will need to have say $45 in their saving account before their bill can be processed. There will be lots of people, myself included who at times will not have $45 in the bank.
Now what are the actual health consequences of waiting one or two days to go to the GP ie until pay day. Some infections will worsen and more people will need to rush to the emergency services. Some people may die as a result – eg older people with pneumonia, children with gastro or croup, serious illesses such as meningitis not caught in time.
I do have some sympathy with the need for some sort of price mechanism for pathology, and too often Doctors are asking for absurd tests- my own experience where a Dr called for an ultrasound before removing a difficult splinter.
One idea I have is that for each pathology or screening test the Dr would tick a box that said “essential,” Highly desirable, or desirable. Essential would attract no charge whatever, Hightly desirable a small charge but collected by the Doctor, and desirable, where payment would be at the discretion of the patient.
Let us take say an ultasound for a pregnancy. Now we know that babies mostly develop normally so unless their is a real concern, an early ultrasound might be in the desirable category. However at 20 weeks or so the Dr might have some concerns or think there are twins or whatever. In this case the ultrasound might be elevated to essential.
Blood tests are even more an issue. Let us say that the Dr has some particular concern and quite sensibly orders some essential tests. However because the patient is getting blood anyway they add another 5-10 less essential tests. This all adds to the cost. The patient may choose if they want that Vitamin D test et.
Victoria: “Simply. How about everyone contribute according to their capacity, to a universal health system?”
In the end, this will either have to mean significantly higher income taxes for middle-to-upper income earners, probably including self-funded retirees, or else rationing of all services.
As I have said before, it’s not like public vs private schools. Public and private hospitals largely provide a different range of services: public hospitals focus on the urgent and life-threatening, and private hospitals focus on the important but less urgent. The public hospitals also provide some of the important but less urgent services, but patients typically have to wait for them, often for a long time.
If Medicare were to provide all the services currently delivered by private hospitals, we would be looking at more than an additional $10 billion per annum having to be found from the taxpayer. Abolishing the part of the private health insurance rebate that goes to subsidising hospital cover would save perhaps a fifth to a quarter of that.
And there’d have to be waiting lists for everyone, because if all hospital services are to be free to everyone, one can expect demand for non-urgent treatments to increase quite significantly. And there’d be some difficult choices: eg, what would you do about cosmetic surgery for vanity purposes? These, which many are currently accessing through private hospitals, would probably have to be prohibited. And there are other treatments like this.
So the overall package would look like this: significantly higher taxes for middle-to upper income earners, potentially longer waiting lists for hospitals, and a reduction in the levels of service available. Add to this nightly TV news images of people in white coats holding placards outside major hospitals protesting about the changes.
I think such changes could be quite justifiable on policy grounds. But good luck in trying to get the public to buy them.
Burgey we are a pretty good bunch here despite the fights that happen from time to time.
Green/Labor disputes are like a footie game. They can be entertaining but I wouldn’t want to be on the field taking the hits.
I heard yesterday from a source I trust that the editors of the DT and the Hun each have a $600k bonus on offer if the LNP win the election outright.
Meher – you might get people to read your posts if they weren’t treatises. If something is more than 2 pars I generally skip past. Try making 2 or 3 separate posts???
@ Edi – I think remain will win, for two reasons:
One is that undecideds will go for the safe, option – the status quo. That reflects what we have seen in similar referendums, including the Scexit vote.
The other is that the Brexiters claim they are very likely to vote, which is reflected in the polling. When you’re just yelling at the wireless, it’s very easy to say “I will definitely vote”, but for most Brexiters, getting to a polling place represents a significant challenge.
By contrast, Bremainers are going to say “I don’t really care, I guess I’ll vote remain, if I bother to turn up”, because caring is not cool. However, they will turn up to vote, because they do care, they just can’t admit it.
meher baba @ #43 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 8:52 am
for the umpteenth time….the existing -ve gearing concessions as they apply to existing housing do not increase the supply of housing. They simply favour investors over other classes of buyers. Far from increasing the supply of housing, they increase demand for rentals – demand that comes from would-be buyers who cannot compete against subsidised buyers. -ve gearing increases the supply of tenants but not of housing. It is the most perverse housing policy we could devise.
Tom Hawkins
Bribery and corruption?
TH – If Rupe can’t get the libs over the line at this election, his power mystique will be utterly broken. I’ve seen absolutely no suggestion that the Labor Party has even bothered trying to be nice to Rupie. He’ll get nothing after the election.
Thanks Victoria, yes she’s doing well. We have no such facility available in NSW as far as I know – lots of new roads but. Well, new roadworks at least.
If that’s true Tom – someone needs to tweet this
Hi meher
Explained the 25% increase at 9.09 am post above.
The NSW government is expecting and welcoming house prices falling as more are built.
As prices (costs) fall returns (ROI) increase.
I had to register to talk about PHI. From a public health and purely economic perspective, we have public and private sectors funding the wrong services. The public sector should be funding more living well activities to maximise contribution to society. Preventative health care services and care of acute services in hospitals and chronic disease in the community. The public sector should minimise the care provided in the last 6 months of life where there is a current disproportionate cost. This is where private funding of services should play a role – you can’t take it with you after all. Sadly this is the opposite to what is currently occurring.
Oh and until this morning I was sceptical about comments that the Greens are running a spoiler campaign against Labor but after RDN’s comments regarding Medicare and Labor on ABC radio this morning I realise I was simply naive.
Pegasus, good article.
Also the Labor state government is on life support but the Liberal opposition is too incompetent to find the switch to turn them off. So both parties are not well liked at state level and any other potential hope is grasped in desperation by many.
K17 QLD had a good free hospital system which operated for many years under Joe and the Medicare system survived 11 years of Howard so yes I think the universal health system will survive for a long time whichever party is in government. Having said that I don’t see any problem have debates on ways to make the system sustainable over time. Hopefully some good things will come out of the debates.
That has always been part of but different to the political argy-bargy.
I’m not a tweeter nor a Facebook user. I agree with you.
tpof @ #89 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 9:59 am
It’s possible Z fear losing his seat. The quota is just under 33%. He could come up short.
From the financial review, via the guardian
“The most likely scenario at this stage is that after the election, there will be nine Senate crossbenchers, of which up to six, and a minimum four, will belong to the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT). This would be one more than the old eight-member crossbench.
The Coalition is on track to lose one senator and drop to 32 spots. Labor, which now has 23 senators, could end up with 26, while the Greens will lose one in South Australia to reduce their total to 10.”
Turnbull and the Tories and the greens should have remembered the old advice to people who are too clever by half: be careful what you wish for.
Tom – can I quote it? Is it a firm rumour?
By the way, steve777, dtt and others, thanks for the support. I am actually pretty thick-skinned, so I don’t really care what other posters say about me.
Anyway, while I would be the first to acknowledge that my posts are too verbose and I sometimes make claims that, on later reflection, I realise were wrong, I rarely have a go at other posters.
It’s true, I’m to the right of most posters on here although, as I have posted in the past, not so far right as to prevent me voting for Labor in the last four Federal elections (and consistently under Hawke-Keating up to and including 1993: shoot me, I did vote for Howard on more than one occasion). I happen to be strongly in favour of free markets and private enterprise (which is certainly not unheard of among Labor people: vis, Hawke and Keating) and I consider both the unions and a somewhat sentimental socialistic/welfarist element to have too much influence on the party’s policies these days.
Nobody has to agree with me, but I’m not a troll: I post what I think.
[“I’ve never seen, and nor do I see, a proposal to potentially privatise the payments system as … a way to privatise Medicare,” Dr Gannon said.]
So why isn’t turnbull going ahead with it then, spent $5 million already doing the groundwork, why drop it?
Autocrat
Good to hear she is doing okay.
Vic state govts have invested heavily in our hospital system. Whilst nothing is ever perfect, it is highly valued and appreciated by many
Scott Bales, that seems like sound thinking. I am leaning towards remain winning as well. The murder of Jo Cox has seemed to have also helped remain, not sure it is a great basis for changing views on an issue like this one, but it seems to have happened and lots of people are probably going to be voting on equally poorly thought out reasons.
kevin-one-seven @ #113 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:14 am
I think that pretty much sums it up. Print newspapers are a big net expense. Their only use is to mollify traditionalists who cannot make the jump to getting their information and opinions from the web, include the web pages of print media, and to act as propaganda battering rams for egotistical owners. The headlines and posters (which are the most brutally dishonest of Murdoch’s rubbish) are a last ditch attempt to claim influence in electoral contests. Fail that and the whole newspaper empire of News Corpse collapses.
And, sorry, I have to go and do some work now. Ciao!
Has anyone other than me noticed the similarities between Edi_Mahin and the unlamented Edwina St dog?
http://insidestory.org.au/none-of-us-have-hearts-of-stone-refugees-and-the-necessity-of-morality
So why isn’t turnbull going ahead with it then, spent $5 million already doing the groundwork, why drop it?
Pure and simple political expediency. #MediScare is biting as an issue.
briefly @ #121 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:20 am
For those unfamiliar with the ACT candidates, ‘vote Zed’ apparently refers to Zed Seselja.
I might be being very unfair to NSW but I suspect that if you are sick move to Victoria or Qld. I too paid not one cent (other than parking) except I did pay for one expensive extra pharmaceutical. Even that I could have avoided but voluntarily paid.
Basically I agree with Victoria. PHI is a waste of bloody money. Except, except I like others am fearful of radical right wing governments such as Newman.
I am horrified to hear of waiting lists for radiotherapy!!!!!. Although I guess if you have cancer surgery, there needs to be at least a three week recovedry period any way to let the would heal so it may not be quite as bad as suggested.
Perhaps what we need are some “semi-private” hospitals which cater for elective surgery.
TPOF, I have been a member here for a long time, I usually just comment around elections because that is what interests me. I have never had another account on here.
DAVIDWH – Howard had oodles of mining boom money and was smart enough to know that Medicare was untouchable. None of the present Liberal goons have any of his nous. They don’t believe in government (hence the NBN debacle) and will do whatever their big donors (the private health insurers) tell them to do.
Jenauthor,
Gotta love people who like to give advice to others posters selectively chosen from the ‘other side’.
Meher Baba,
I always read your posts as they don’t consist of emotive bile and are always interesting and informative.
Briefly at 10.20
From an ACT point of view I’d be surprised. At the last election, the Greens put up Simon Sheikh as a glamour candidate and he still did not make it. And that was in the context of knowing that the Liberals would come after the public service with swinging axes. There is no third party candidate here now with that kind of pull and with such a candidate having to get 33% of the vote after preferences, it is highly unlikely that the Liberal senator would be in any danger at all.
[the Medicare system survived 11 years of Howard so yes I think the universal health system will survive for a long time whichever party is in government.]
Not really, under howard we were paying $35 to see a doctor when howard was ridiculing anyone paying $20 to see a doctor. Paying extra for tests and exams too. With three kids was very costly. howard drove bulk billing from high 80s to low 70s.
And howard as treasurer under fraser destroyed completely the original medicare, Medibank, which is now completely privatised.
labor after howard got bulk billing back into the 80s and it is stayed there under the libs as their changes have mostly been rejected by the senate.
under turnbull all the medical bodies agree that bulk billing will decline again in aslow gutting of medicare on its way to eventual privatisation as happened with Medibank.
Quite right. Financially there is no obstacle to the federal goverment buying whatever real resources (such as the services of doctors, nurses, medical researchers) are available for sale in the Australian dollar.
It is profoundly illiterate to believe that the federal government, like a household, needs to obtain dollars from elsewhere – by earning it, borrowing it, or selling assets – before spending.
edi_mahin @ #135 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:27 am
Well you sound like Edwina St John to me. Taking obnoxious positions (and I don’t mean just politically conservative) from time to time and then asking with a completely straight face for opinions on other matters of the day.
Still, it is of no consequence, so I’ll take your word for it.
Carl Schneider
What did RDN say – roughly?
Ha! I said just yesterday that Medicare was biting so hard that the Liberals had to pull out the old reliable Boats! scare.
Hands up anyone who thinks today’s Telecrap screamer is purely coincidental.
DavidWH,
I am so glad you post here. Your thoughtful posts are always a pleasure to read, and your different perspective is really important.
Peg – I didn’t comment on the content of Meher’s posts, just the length. The length is off-putting for me and others, thus the message he/she might be trying to get across is lost.
It was just a suggestion so his/her arguments might be heard by more on the blog
The MSM may be trying to play down or ignore the “Save Medicare” campaign..
..but they have no control over tv ads + social media. It’s featuring heavily on Twitter, Facebook (the biggy) and Youtube..
Old media is also largely static text/imagery ..whereas anything online is dynamic and very often creative and amusing..
This campaign is biting all right & even our old media will not stop it..
The other side of medicare is the PHI rebate and subsidisation of elective surgery and other treatment.
Effectively the government and taxpayer is subsidising for non essential treatments be they six packs or breasts, facials, and body sculpturing, there are also the retreats where you can recover from any so called stress or trauma in 6 star resorts.
this isn’t health care it is vanity and cheap holidays.
TPOF
I dropped back in yesterday after a long absence to follow the last two weeks of the campaign.
Is Edwina still around?
carl schneider @ #117 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:18 am
G sledging of Labor is absolutely par for the course. Those of us who make up the Labor membership and campaign hard to win elections will not forget it. Their tactics will be neither forgotten nor forgiven.
boris @ #147 Wednesday, June 22, 2016 at 10:34 am
Absolutely correct.