With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.
The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.
Turnbull started quite well, but gradually descended into waffle. The low point was him turning the AS questions into partisan blame. Gutless prick.
Great to see Katie Noonan belting one up Turnbulls Blurter with that question on arts funding.
I think the good burghers of Qld came to judge Turnbull as the vacuous Spiv he is.
Interestingly, the QandA session was much like Turnbulls career. He started off with promise, but ended in great disappointment.
I thought Jones was good.
Regarding that NBN question.
The person asking the question nailed it. “Why pay twice?”. Same question was being asked 3 years ago, but the media have singularly failed to grasp that the issue with the NBN is not speed, its about the fact that if you are going to pay 50 billion for something, it needs to be built to last.
Kudos to the guy in the audience. Its a shame Labor hasn’t been hammering the same message. Anything spent on anything other than fibre is wasted money.
Given the audience tonight, it still seems strange that Labor is struggling to pick up seats in Brisbane.. or is there a surprise waiting?
Cud
Turnbull’s answer to the NBN question was akin to saying that he was able to provide a 20 year old Kingswood with a reconditioned engine more quickly than if he provided a new car from the factory – and no more expensive!
jimmydoyle @ #1300 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:03 pm
Hmmmm. I was losing faith in Labor because it had seemed to drop the many lines of attack on the Government. But now it seems to have a master plan building up to leaving that Liberal jugular fully exposed for attack just before election day.
Today the only Liberal TV ad I’ve seen is the faketradie, none of the long running Turnbull ones about Jobsen Groeth etc. Labor is ramping up its advertising significantly.
I’ve not seen any of the threatened big business ads but teachers union and nurses union ads have been on.
That Labor ad linking back to Howard’s “never ever” is great. A fringe benefit is that it links nicely with the Bob Hawke ad on how untrustworthy the Libs are on Medicare. These ads tell me that Labor is NOT on a “two-step” strategy, but are in earnest about winning back government right now.
By contrast, the Libs have the lettuce-leaf #FakeTradie ad inventing poor battlers who just want a fair go at another investment property. I think they either want to lose this election, or their heads are ridiculously far up their …
We will see Cud. They are a hard bunch to pick. I live in the state seat of Stafford, which also falls in the Federal seat of Brisbane.
Three years ago we had the largest swing recorded in about thirty years when the locals elected Anthony Lynham.
It is very possible that Pat O’Neill could win Brisbane back.
This is brilliant.
How Malcolm Turnbull would’ve stopped Electricity-to-the-Home in 1916
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nbn-debate-what-would-malcolm-turnbulls-mix-have-looked-lasky
Perfect!!
A few of us here mentioned a Labor ad using Howards “never ever ” GST, and now Labor is using it,plus Abbotts football field no cuts to anything statement.Brilliant.
I had every confidence ALP would ramp it up in the last week or two.
They were holding their ammo until it would hit the mark
TPOF, losing faith?
Nooooooooooooo!
TPOF,
Turnbull can only get away with it because the media have never asked him that simple question – why pay twice?
The CFMEU advert in response to fake tradie has now had 58 thousand views. Earlier in the evening it was 11 thousand
https://www.facebook.com/CFMEU/videos/980330312065059/
TPOF,
I asked you earlier if you think Labor is going to win. On a related question, is there any chance the undecideds will swing to Labor this coming week? Will it show in the polls or be hidden? Do you think that this Q+A will generate buzz in the community or will the media predictably report that Turnbull was great?
Kate Ellis losing Adelaide to the Liberal’s. The idea seems just plan wrong. To NXT perhaps, even to the Greens, but to the Liberals surely not. I cannot read the article but I am struggling to see how it makes any sense.
Does anyone have more details on this poll?
Amazingly it really feels that the voters are now getting engaged in this election!!
Funnyball @ 11.16
I’m sure that none of those actually involved heavily in this campaign were contemplating a ‘two-step’ strategy. Too often it’s some big-mouthed nobody who is blathering their self-importance who feeds the ‘insider’ comment to some journalist, who thus has some copy and technically acts consistently with the journalist ethics rules.
TPOF – Labor is on the ball.
bemused @ #1309 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:16 pm
I rarely share anything on facebook but have done so with this one.
Are those CFMEU ads going to be well funded on TV?
Just watched the CFMEU ad and it shits on the Lib ad. Going to be a fun two weeks and I’m still going for a Labor win.
On the ad they are using subtitles too along the bottom of screen,so they can read what was said by Abbott and Howard to have more impact.
roger bottomley @ #1313 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:17 pm
Only because Labor had not campaigned as aggressively on trust, unity and competence
as I expected. It now appears it was keeping its powder dry. I hope it has not left its run too late.
Unfortunately I did not get to watch QandA
Reading this the posts of the last few pages suggests Trunchbull struggled.
Can someone please objectively judge his performance without any bias.
How will the MSM describe it in tomorrow’s papers. Can his shabby performance really shift votes? Does anyone who is not dyed in the wool actually watch Qanda?
Cud – they’d need to be cut down – goes for 90 secs ..= 3 ads
Turnball started well, but rapidly descended into waffle and not really answering the questions that well.
The MSM of course will praise him for appearing on a program that isn’t friendly to the Liberal Party, in their view.
I noticed Tony Jones said at the end of tonight that no Liberal as yet had fronted up to appear next week, but as Alan Jones is appearing, they really don’t need another spokesperson for the right.
Cud chewer
I am unsure, but thinking that the CFMEU advert is only going to be shown via social media.
norwester @ #1321 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:21 pm
I am sharing lots of campaign related material on Facebook. That one of course and a Mark David cartoon BK linked to earlier this evening is todays quota.
Victoria #1315 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:18 pm
That one of the best politica adds I ever seen. brought tears to my eyes.
tpof @ #1325 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:23 pm
So much material… so little time.
Seriously?? Good on them.
teh_drewski
Monday, June 20, 2016 at 10:23 pm
I find it a teensy bit hard to believe that the Libs are tracking to win Adelaide. I could believe a Xenophon insurgency, but I doubt many Labor voters who desert them for Nick X will preference the Liberals before Labor coming back.
—————————
THE XENEBOMB IN SA
In South Australia, who will Xenephon ‘open ticket’ primary voters give their second preferences to, Liberal or Labor ? This is one of the burning questions safe seat holders in SA are surely keeping awake at night worrying about if he pulls 20 % of the primary vote, let the alone the 29% the recent poll suggested.
The answer is we just don’t know without a precedent to work from. All we have are election polls conflicting and conflating predictions….. and perhaps an extrapolation from the 2015 State Election in SA. So here it is-
In 2015, the South Australian electorate gave 80.6 % of the primary vote to the two major parties in the House of Assembly. However, in the Legislative Council the two major parties drew only 67.0% and NXT attracted 12.9 % of the vote. NXT took 65% from the Liberals and 35 % from Labor. That is, Xenephon voters raided the pantry of both BLUE and RED houses, but raided the BLUE house 30% more.
If someone like NXT or a GREEN is stealing your PV twice as much as your enemy but don’t finish second on PV,meh. But if they are stealing 30% more PV from you than your Labor enemy AND this interloper finishes second on PV, you are in deep doo doo. Bye bye Mayo and Grey- And Labor seats are safe ?
Read my earlier post Sachin. I thought he started well on his strong suit of the economy, but descended from there and by the end he was waffling, partisan, and blaming others. His answers on the arts and SSM were very ordinary.
I found that I could access the article through the NT news.
No more details of primary vote or anything so it is just a random headline figure which makes no sense and a claim that voters in he southern part of the electorate did not like Abbott but like Turnbull. Seems very, very suspect to me.
Towards the beginning of the campaign Labor had ads imploring to donate just $5 as they were being outspent by the government 5:1 – with an accompanying bar chart. The same ads now show a ratio of 3:1.
I can’t help wonder if a well targeted social media campaign of that nature, cleverly connected in the mobile digital world with very easily processed credit card micro-donations, might have helped Labor’s campaign a lot. TV ads cost a lot of money to reach every eyeball, the social media ones might not be as prominent but they have their advantages too.
Sorry I meant to say they had Facebook ads asking for small donations.
Is there a link to the Howard-Abbott never ever ad?
The CFMEU ad is too long for TV. It’ll run on social media, but still likely to get high viewership, just arguably not the viewership it needs in an election campaign.
meher baba @ #968 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 8:29 pm
MB…you know a campaign is working when voters start to recite campaign messages to door-knockers and phone-callers. This has been happening all over the place. Voters are just highly sensitised to anything that could drive up health costs or make access to health services more difficult. This is fundamentally related to the ageing of the population, the very rapid increase in the cost of private health insurance and the record of the Liberals.
The Liberals have ventured onto the territory where Labor has it’s greatest advantage. They would not do this without compelling reasons for it.
TPOF, we are just past the half way mark of a normal campaign.
I think there is plenty of time.
A week in an election campaign is an eon.
I see Bolt has Campbell Newman on there. Nah I’ll leave it on mute.
cud chewer @ #1316 Monday, June 20, 2016 at 11:19 pm
I’ve maintained for some time that the uncommitted vote was very soft. Many people have pointed out that there is no sense that baseball bats are waiting to be wielded in this election and that is true. And in most cases that would mean the public would be comfortable enough with sticking with the current government.
But this government has done nothing. While it has done little to drive uncommitted voters to throw them out, it has done even less to encourage them to keep them on. I still feel that there is real scope for the soft uncommitted, with so little for them to vote for in the current government, to turn to Labor on the basis that there is enough there in their policies to give them a go.
Put another way, a small target strategy only works effectively when the public is looking to kick the other side to death. For a government to run a small target strategy when their opposition has actually put out constructive and popular policies is highly dangerous. In effect, they are making themselves such a small target that in the absence of a desire of voters to vote AGAINST their opponents, they will actually disappear into a little dot and leave Labor as the only party with a presence on the ballot paper.
I don’t know if I’m right. I’ve stuck my head out in a way I’ve not done before by thinking that the electorate will behave differently this way because the circumstances had been turned on their head in this election. We’ll see. But I’m much more confident than I was a few days ago. Labor is fighting and fighting hard in the last couple of weeks. That could well make the difference against a hollow government led by a hollow man.
Confessions – It hasn’t been released yet, but here’s one in the same vein:
https://www.facebook.com/LaborConnect/photos/a.398667261788.195403.307341981788/10154331357911789/?type=3&theater
The early part of the Q&A focusing on health can’t have been good for the Libs. Audience looked very sceptical.
I’m hoping the logic of your argument is correct TPOF
Warren Peace
I was surprised by my own reaction. It. made me emotional too.
Personally I thought Turnbull was adequate without nailing the opportunity. Can’t see too many votes shifting because of his performance.
But I’m probably biased.
Herald Sun pushing around this so called survey which really shows the demographic of the paper.
Apparently the biggest issues are Surplus and ISIS, Climate change is the smallest issue and a plebiscite on gay marriage would fail miserably just to name a few.