Newspoll: 50-50

Even stevens from Newspoll, which has a further poll finding Barnaby Joyce hanging on for dear life in New England.

With a fortnight to go, Newspoll finds two-party preferred steady at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (up one), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). We are also informed that the Nick Xenophon Team is at 29% in South Australia. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 35% and down one to 51%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-30 to 46-31. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1805.

The Australian also has a Newspoll result showing Barnaby Joyce with a lead of just 51-49 in New England, from primary votes of 48%, 36% for independent Tony Windsor, 7% for Labor and 3% for the Greens. This was part of the same marginal seat polling that was mostly released on Saturday, being conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,417 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. I’m sure the British had great faith in the decency and common sense of the people in discussing the Brexit referendum. But now an MP is murdered.

  2. Overwhelmingly people prefer a plebiscite so let’s have one.
    Overwhelming people approve of ssm, so let’s not legislate for it?????

  3. Late term abortions.

    This is so Qanda. Where are the questions on the govt’s deficit? That the Liberals have extended our debt levels to historic levels and have no obvious plans to bring the budget back to reality.

  4. Jones: “Quite a few questions to go”
    Can Turnbull do any better?
    Arts question probably not one he would have wanted at this point.

  5. This is such a train wreck, is MT actually aiming for people to feel sorry for him? If so, he would have been well advised to drop his natural condescension.

  6. Hi Peg@1015

    Eva Cox: https://theconversation.com/major-parties-are-behind-the-times-and-strangely-silent-on-social-policy-60314

    As we enter the business end of the election campaign, with pre-polling underway, there is a profound lack of any social welfare policies on offer from either major party. The Greens have now put up proposals, mainly to raise the levels of some of the basic welfare payments in line with wide recommendations, including from the Business Council of Australia.

    The bipartisan silence suggests that neither Labor nor the Coalition are keen to engage in this area, despite their frequent promises of fairness and trust. Their focus on working families or agile entrepreneurs fails to tackle the needs of those who are not contributing paid work hours.
    ::::
    In Australia, neither major party seems willing to engage with positive changes to welfare policy and income support, assuming instead that these will be fixed by more jobs and growth….
    ::::
    Both major parties, when in power this century, have failed to tackle the increasing gap between the jobs available and the number of job seekers.
    ::::
    It seems neither major party recognises the structural causes of unemployment and so cannot solve the social problems associated with it. This makes it unlikely that they will explore ideas for universal payments that could reduce the ill-effects of structural poverty and fix the structural inequity problems that create divisive societies.

    Thanks for bringing this article to my attention. I have an enormous amount of time for Eva, but in this case I need to disagree with her assessment that neither Labor or the LNP are noticing the devastating effects of growing social inequity.

    The LNP do not care, they thing inequality is a good thing – it drives competition and the market. However, Labor very much understands the problem, and seeks to mitigate it with policies such as Gonski, keeping bulk billing for Medicare, nad making trades and tertiary education affordable.

    But these are only small steps in the direction of equality, some may say – yes, they are small steps, but like it or not, that is all the Australian electorate will accept. That is why in the Federal sphere, we have had, consistently, LNP Federal Governments 75% of the time, and Labor only 25% of the time.

    However, all significant social changes in Australia have come from Labor, and this will not change. For goodness sake, the LNP are conservatives, they are in power to prevent change.

    This is not to say that the Greens are irrelevant – not at all – they can make a very positive contribution. But, not while they are saying that Labor and the LNP are the same, and hence it makes no difference who you vote for in 2nd July.

    The ALP have many socially progressive policies that will reduce inequality – restoring the funding to Headspace, Homelessness services, Aboriginal services, Women’s shelters and Legal aid centres… The list goes on.

    Should the ALP go further – yes, of course it should, but later, bringing the population with it, from a position of strength by being in government.

    Would it win government if it did push a social agenda far outside the bounds of what will frighten the horses? Not a chance.

    I think I should write a refutation of Eva Cox’s Conversation article, also for the Conversation of course. Is this a good use of my time, given that the LNP will probably win anyway? When that happens, all our bickering about whether Labor is campaigning on the correct policies will be moot.

    I will sleep on it, but I am sorry to see that Eva Cox can see no difference between Labor and the LNP. She is wrong, and I find it hard to believe she actually believes this.

  7. These questions are sensational, well done Brisbane.
    Turnbull is fighting an awful duel with his inner self and is losing massively.
    What a soulless sellout.

  8. Now it’s Abbott & Brandis’ fault! Is there any question MT won’t answer by throwing somebody else under the bus?

  9. Ignores the question. Which is fair enough. The question was why there is mass disappointment in Turnbull and would Turnbull care to reflect on why that disappointment has occurred.

  10. Since we have an hour of uninterrupted Turnbull it is worth watching him with the sound off.

    I’d be particularly interested in female Bludgers’ impressions from watching in this way: how’s he traveling?

  11. Hard-wired Liberal supporters would think he did OK coz he is sick and some of the questions were Labor questions.
    Uncertain people would mostly remain uncertain. Any that stepped out of the uncertainty zone would not be settling on Turnbull.
    Labor supporters got to see a dud.

  12. I voted today, in Hervey Bay.
    Just like “dancing with the stars” I told the LNP ladies I was giving their man the top vote – 7. The ALP bloke he was only getting a – 1.
    When inside, I was asked “do you have a reason you can’t vote on July 02 ?”
    I answered “Yes” – no follow up question.
    Then I proceeded to vote. Couldn’t read the Senate ticket very well as the writing was so small but I managed.
    ALP people said they were getting a good response. There were no Greens or the only Independent there. As well as the LNP ladies the ALA, Family First & Pauline Hansen teams were all handing out their cards with great enthusiasm.

  13. The MSM will spin it as a lecture from a master, so he’s probably only lost 10,000 or so votes from the undecided ABC viewers who actually watched. Maybe not too much damage.

  14. I really do think Mal has given up …. just going through the motions
    He’s left his fate in the hands of Textor & Co.

  15. It was always so easy for Turnbull to appear on QandA and tell everyone what a great leader he would be and how things would be so different with him in charge. Now he is in charge but in title only. Even Lucy must be disappointed that he squandered his big chance to make a difference.

  16. Lateline saying that a Labor ad will go to air tomorrow showing Howard saying “never, ever” on GST, and Abbott on health and education and then Turnbull on Medicare. Excited to see it!

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