ReachTEL: 50-50

Movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary vote from ReachTEL, but their enthusiasm will be tempered by an alarming result from the South Australian seat of Grey, where Rowan Ramsey is under the pump from the Nick Xenophon Team.

ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.

Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.

Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.

bludgertrack-2016-06-10

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. To the miserable pessimists, 3 weeks to go, and from this poll:

    Asked whether they most supported “tax cuts for companies” or “increased spending on health and education services”, 69.5% of those polled nominated health and education and only 30.5% tax cuts for companies.

  2. Its based on the Greek community abandoning Labor in droves over marriage equality (X being of Greek heritage doesn’t hurt).

    Well, they’re going to be disappointed to learn the NXT platform is officially pro-Marriage Equality and Xenophon himself voted for it when it last came to parliament.

    TBH, I’ve been skeptical about the whole “anti-Marriage Equality voters turned against Georganas in 2013” argument. The statewide swing was on, Hindmarsh has a lot of aspirationals moving into it and Georganas himself ran a very complacent campaign (I should emphasise it was out of naivete, not arrogance) – that made rookie errors like not even running a postal vote campaign. Considering how close the result was, he could’ve won, had there been a bit more fight.

  3. Senate voting in Grey in 2013 vs recent poll
    X at 19%………32.7
    ALP 22%……..14.5
    Lib 33%……….39.4
    Greens 2%……5
    FF 5%………….4
    Lib Dems 5%, Palmer 5% not included.

    As someone commented on earlier the ‘which party would you preference higher’ question – ALP 70%, Lib 30%. I make the ALPvsLib 2PP roughly 47-53 which is a 2PP swing to the ALP of 10%.
    Stretching it , I suspect this seems to sort of suggest that wherever in SA the ALP can keep ahead of X, they will win the seat. It could also suggest a chance of a wipeout for the Liberal incumbents.

  4. Jackol

    The decision to sack the board was made before the court injunction. Indeed, it’s why the injunction was sought.

    What I have heard is that the resistance to a settlement of any kind has come from the board, and that they have used the volunteers fairly cynically. Certainly the misinformation (and certainly there is some degree of this) which is going around suggests a high level involvement.

    It’s a bit dodgy, for example, for people to use state resources for a protest and to charge the cost of using those resources to the state – and yet, by driving their trucks to Melbourne using fuel paid for by the taxpayer, CFA volunteers have done just that.

    They couldn’t do that – and certainly couldn’t do that and not be reprimanded – if their adminstrators (who hold paid positions) weren’t at the very least turning a blind eye.

    There seems to be a willingness to believe that the CFA, because it is staffed by volunteers, is pure as the driven snow. This ignores the fact that the CFA is run by paid staff, who are as prone as anyone else to empire building. It also breaks the rules of common sense, which tends to suggest that there are two sides to an argument, and neither is wholly in the right.

  6. There could end up being 8 on the crossbenches in the lower house if you factor in NXT and windsor chances. Makes it harder for LNP to form government.
    Looks like its going to be minority government, and a lot of chaos to sort it out.

  8. Simon Katich, I’m glad someone else is reading this poll in Grey like I am! I also see a 10% TPP swing from Lib to Labor. No gain for Labor in Grey, but anything like that in Hindmarsh would see a probable Labor gain off the Libs. That might be the only one, but on figures like this, the party representation from SA in the HoR would be ALP 7, NXT 3, Lib 1.

  10. shellbell

    Any views on whether Xenophon might want a cabinet position as the price for the support of his party in hung parliament?

    A definite no from me.
    And Andrews has screwed the pooch for Labor in Victoria. His behaviour is disgraceful. Totally lost the plot IMHO.

  12. Please pardon me if someone’s already answered this, but does the Lib/ALP TPP in Grey in this ReachTEL poll come to something like 53.4/46.6? Would this be a TPP swing from Lib to ALP of 10.1%? I wonder if this gives us some clue about the sort of TPP swing to the ALP in SA seats in which NXT comes behind Labor.

    A Labor-Liberal 2PP derived from those numbers, without knowing exactly how NXT voters would preference (I go 50-50, to be safe) would get around the 61-39 to the Liberals (I am doing this really back of the envelope – our good psephologists might give you a proper number)

  16. carey moore @ #112 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    Please pardon me if someone’s already answered this, but does the Lib/ALP TPP in Grey in this ReachTEL poll come to something like 53.4/46.6? Would this be a TPP swing from Lib to ALP of 10.1%? I wonder if this gives us some clue about the sort of TPP swing to the ALP in SA seats in which NXT comes behind Labor.

    A Labor-Liberal 2PP derived from those numbers, without knowing exactly how NXT voters would preference (I go 50-50, to be safe) would get around the 61-39 to the Liberals (I am doing this really back of the envelope – our good psephologists might give you a proper number)

    I see no point in trying to be more precise and agree it is something like this.

  17. My guess is that 50:50 is a good general pref to follow for NXT but I’m pretty sure it would represent however the seat runs so Grey would be more like 60:40 to the Libs.

  18. My calcs…
    If its 39.4 Lib to 14.5 ALP primary that leaves 46 to others. These others are preferencing ALP 70-30. So thats 14.5+0.7×46=46.7% 2PP to ALP.

  19. Carey Moore, question 1c of the ReachTEL poll for Grey showed that 69.8% of everyone not intending to vote Lib or Lab would give their preference to Labor over Liberal. That’s 69.8% of 46.2% of respondents, or 32.2% of the total. This elevates the 14.4% of Labor PV’S (after undecideds are added) up to a Labor TPP of 46.6%.

  22. It is still when the majority of people will think about the election. I think Labor will win the last three weeks; starting with Shorten on Q&A next Monday.

    I hope you are right, and think you probably will be. The ALP PV is a bit of a worry though. Was interesting the ABC segment tonight in the martial arts place. The woman who will vote for the Libs, even though she thinks Medicare is important? There is someone who is willing to vote against their own interests big time.

  24. zoomster –

    The decision to sack the board was made before the court injunction. Indeed, it’s why the injunction was sought.

    Yes, indeed. And what a responsible government would do – irrespective of whether they intended to change their minds or not, but purely to show they were crossing all the Ts etc – would be to say “well there’s an injunction until a hearing on this date, in light of this we’ll postpone our ultimatum until that is settled”. That would have been the proper thing to do – no loss of face for the government, respecting all the various players and institutions.

    But no.

    There seems to be a willingness to believe that the CFA, because it is staffed by volunteers, is pure as the driven snow.

    I, certainly, have never suggested that the CFA is “pure as the driven snow”, so good straw man there Zoomster.

    The fact that large numbers of volunteers are directly involved in the CFA’s operation cannot be ignored. It’s a big issue politically, emotionally, etc. This group of people cannot be simply treated as a party to an industrial dispute, and they can’t be dismissed as a reactionary interest group – they may well be a reactionary interest group, but they have a special place in society that is ignored at the government’s peril.

    The Victorian government needed to treat this case very very carefully. It doesn’t matter how cynically the CFA hierarchy may have treated the volunteers – and the story you’re telling smacks a lot of character assassination of a political rival more than a rounded out assessment of where things stand. The government has tried to impose organisational change that impacts on a large number of volunteers – without any real explanation for why these changes are necessary or even a good thing. No one has explained why these changes need to happen.

    It all stinks, and screwing around with a historied volunteer based organisation is just dumb dumb dumb.

  25. funnyball @ #115 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    Does anyone know if there is an Ipsos poll due out tonight?

    I’m not expecting one.

    By the way if there is nothing else out tonight my aggregate is going to 50.7 to Coalition (80-65-5) for a couple of days as a result of the way it weights very recent data in the final three weeks.

  26. KB, in Grey right now, the only evidence we have indicates “others” (meaning non-Liberal-and-Labor, and including NXT) are preference get Labor 70/30, not 50/50.

  27. Oh ok. I was just going by the raw PV numbers and how they traditionally split. It’s, of course, purely academic if those PV numbers amount the way they do, as it would be an NXT v. Lib exercise.

  28. There is a lot of people that vote against their own interests otherwise Labor would win everytime.They are the deluded types that Murdoch loves. Plenty of deluded.Look how they were deluded into voting for Abbott.

  30. On the face of it, whether the LNP can hold on to their majority is going to depend on developments in WA and SA. The LNP can lose 13 seats and hold their majority. At this stage, it appears they will struggle to do that but equally, Labor will not surpass them either. So close.

  31. Kevin B:

    Thanks for that. Clearest cut explanation of how the Senate electoral changes work in practice that I’ve ever seen. I’m actually quite anxious about the Senate ballot this time around because I can see myself making mistakes and getting it wrong. What chance do politically disengaged voters have? I envisage many invalid votes. 🙁

  32. Carey Moore, your point is quite right about Grey. But this indicates to me that “other” preferences in general, and possibly NXT preferences in particular, are flowing more strongly to Labor than a lot of people seem to be presuming.

  34. funnyball @ #126 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:16 pm

    KB, in Grey right now, the only evidence we have indicates “others” (meaning non-Liberal-and-Labor, and including NXT) are preference get Labor 70/30, not 50/50.

    I hadn’t seen it had Lib/ALP respondent preferences. Which I treat as usual with lots of caution but on that basis yes it would be a massive 2PP swing.

    The idea that NXT could be a gateway drug to preferencing Labor in SA is an interesting one.

  35. For the rest of the campaign:
    1. Turnbull will either be in hiding (I think he is physically ill) or telling people to vote for stability (even though he will get axed straight after the election).
    2. Morrison will come out once a day and bite someone’s leg.
    3. The Lib’s only policy is tax cuts for Corporations.
    Labor should dominate the last three weeks. The only question is whether the Fawning Corporate Media let them.

  36. confessions @ #131 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    Kevin B:
    Thanks for that. Clearest cut explanation of how the Senate electoral changes work in practice that I’ve ever seen. I’m actually quite anxious about the Senate ballot this time around because I can see myself making mistakes and getting it wrong. What chance do politically disengaged voters have? I envisage many invalid votes.

    It’s pretty hard to actually completely invalidate your vote under this system. Quite easy to accidentally exhaust it early though. All kinds of silly stuff will happen first time around but over time people will get more used to it.

  37. [Does anyone know if there is an Ipsos poll due out tonight?]
    Forget the polls, its comedy night at PB.
    Did I tell you the one about the psephologists end of year party where one of them drowns in a vat of beer?
    The head psephologist had to break it to his wife. Sobbing, she asked if he suffered.
    “I dont think so ‘mam. He got out three times to take a piss”.

  38. “As I said the other day, I really wanna see Port Adelaide and Barker.”

    Carey: unless I’m blind it looked to me like there was no NXT candidate standing in Port Adelaide.

    The Grey result doesn’t surprise me at all. NXT seems to have a particular allure in country SA at the moment. I haven’t seen any polling first Gand, but I’ve had (and overheard) enough conversations to have wondered, for a few weeks now, whether NXT will pull off a couple of upsets in country Sears like Barker and Grey (my seat).

    I did predict weeks ago that NXT would hold the balance of power after the election, with 3 or 4 seats in both the Senate and the Reps.

    I remain convinced it will happen.

  39. Jackol

    ‘The government has tried to impose organisational change that impacts on a large number of volunteers ..’

    No, the government has tried to resolve a long running dispute, taking the guidance of the independent umpire. Andrews’ decision went further than the FWA recommendations, putting in place stronger protections for volunteers, including a dispute resolution process.

    As for ‘the changes that needed to happen’, what changes? Apart from the media beat ups, the changes made only affect the union concerned – that is, the professional firefighters. There are very few real impacts on the CFA that I’m aware of.

  40. I apologise in advance if most of you already know this, but I’ve only just been made aware of this today, despite how surprising that may be to believe.

    In regards to AS, I now understand that this BS debate over whether or not we should accept more refugees is moot. The fact of the matter is that we (Australia) has signed up to the UN convention on refugees which compels us to accept any refugees that wish to come to our shores. Therefore it doesn’t matter one iota who agrees or doesn’t agree or if it will encourage more boats or people smugglers, there is no choice in the matter, we are legally obliged to accept them.

    With that being the case, it now makes a lot more sense why the government persists with the line that peoples lives are at risk when coming by boat and that’s the reason why the boats must be stopped. It’s the only argument they can take to justify their blatantly criminal stance. It also explains why the Greens solution is to fly the refugees over. Legally, that is problem solved.

    Now, I know that we don’t want the AS debate to become an issue during the election, but I’m just speaking from a purely moral/ethical standpoint here. Maybe I’m the odd one out that didn’t understand all this until now, but I would hazard a guess that most of the country (apart from PB) were as unaware as I was of our legal requirements in regards to AS. The real question should be not if WANT to accept more refugees, but if we should REMAIN a signatory of the UN Convention on refugees.

    As for Offshore detention, in light of this realisation, I now have no idea how any plausible argument can be made to justify it.

  41. For the rest of the campaign:
    1. Turnbull will either be in hiding

    My own view is the Libs will persist with the same messages they’ve run with since the beginning. It’s working after all.

  42. Zoomster –

    There are very few real impacts on the CFA that I’m aware of.

    You’ve said this a couple of times. It may be true, but if it is true than all the nonsense about how this can’t be resolved short of nuking the CFA is just nonsense.

    You’re trying to make out that the CFA are kicking up a stink for no reason at all, and that just doesn’t wash. Short of accusing the CFA of being political saboteurs, why would they risk the political storm involved in them taking a stand – it makes no sense.

    What does make sense is that they, and/or their volunteer membership, think – rightly or wrongly – that there is change being imposed on them. If no change is actually being imposed on them, then the government just needs to sit down and talk with them some more and work out how to convince them that there is no change. And if there is no change this should be fairly easy, right?

    But no, Occam’s razor suggests that there actually is organisational change being pushed through here and the government cannot explain why it needs to happen – because it doesn’t need to happen – but they’ve agreed with the UFU that this should happen as part of the bargaining and can’t revisit it now for whatever reason.

  43. z
    That must be why the Labor Minister for Emergency Services resigned over it. And the Discrimination Board, Supreme Court and volunteer firefighters are against it.

  44. Why wouldn’t NXT be a gateway drug to the ALP in the rest of Australia. I don’t understand why someone would be pissed off enough with the system to vote for NXT but would then preference the Government (or vote for the government if there is no NXT candidate)

  45. Kevin B:

    I normally Senate vote BTL but with the changes wasn’t thinking of doing that this time around. Perhaps it’s safest to just keep doing that, even if it makes the amendments redundant for my individual vote.

  47. [A definite no from me.
    And Andrews has screwed the pooch for Labor in Victoria. His behaviour is disgraceful. Totally lost the plot IMHO.]
    I don’t follow this at all, Abbott sacked and replaced lots of boards and appointments just to put mates into place and I never saw a single complaint. Here a board is being sacked for reason and people are up in arms. Either I’m missing a really important distinction or the hypocrisy and inconsistency is staggeringly stupid?

  49. Then Industrial Relations Minister Natalie Hutchins appeared to verbal Fair Work president Iain Ross by claiming he had told her the agreement would improve diversity in the fire services. Ross said nothing of the sort, and clearly made his displeasure known, forcing Hutchins to issue a humiliating retraction just hours later.

    Then the CFA board released legal advice – from the Government’s own Senior Counsel no less – stating that signing the deal could unlawfully breach anti-discrimination laws. Again, this advice was batted away, with Andrews saying it was up to the Fair Work Commission to decide what was legal and what wasn’t.

    As if all of this wasn’t extraordinary enough, later on Friday the Supreme Court issued an injunction preventing the CFA board from signing any agreement until June 22, ostensibly because the concerns of volunteers had not been properly considered.

    Once again Andrews – backed by his freshly appointed Emergency Services Minister James Merlino – steamrolled his way over this trifling matter, sacking the board anyway.

    The only entity that has not been steamrolled is the militant union. The message to other unions: go hard, hold your ground, inflict maximum damage and you will prevail.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/daniel-andrews-steamrolls-his-way-over-process-to-pass-firefighter-industrial-deal-20160610-gpgqih.html#ixzz4BBCOxHYs

    This is poor leadership from Daniel Andrews. His duty is to promote the public good, not ram through deals that suit a powerful backer of his government. The process stinks and the outcome gives short shift to the rights of parents, carers, older people, and people with disabilities.

  50. Perhaps now that the ALP can see that the majority of voters are still too stupid to realise what the Libs actually stand for, they may actually revert back to their “We’ve got nothing to lose” approach that worked so well for them up until a few months back and start taking some risks again. They seem to have gone into their shell since the campaign started, (a bit like myself now) since coming to the realisation that they were a real chance of winning and have perhaps been trying to play it too safe. Could be a blessing in disguise?

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