ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
The best retail politician in Australia at work
“Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce told a constituent to “piss off” after a heated exchange over mining in a pub in his New England electorate.
“At that stage the bar staff woman came in beside me and she put her arm straight out between Barnaby Joyce and myself. ”
Mr Joyce lost his temper with Nicola Chirlian, a Liverpool Plains beef farmer and anti-mining activist who had tackled him on the topic of coal and coal seam gas mining on ABC’s Q&A program in Tamworth on Monday”
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-barnaby-joyce-tells-constituent-to-piss-off-during-heated-pub-exchange-20160610-gpg857.html#ixzz4BAdR1yaT
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K17: you’re right. Scott Morrison seems to have been appointed heckler in chief, and really that’s all his contributions are.
Doyley,
Well, I have been calling a Shorten victory for a long time and way before it was fashionable to do so. Along with a Trump victory.
Why. Because despite the Labor faithful being somewhat down about the chances early on I looked at the Libs in despair.
Post Abbott knifing Turnbull did nothing, nothing at all. What he did do was to play to the left on issues which pissed the center right off. Then he got antsy and manufactured a DD and delivered a shit budget that pissed the center right off again. Then, come calling the election and to rub salt in the wounds, Turnbull talks about the ‘Team Turnbull’ and removes the liberal brand from all his advertising. So, I’m not on team Turnbull’s team, he left me a while ago while chasing lefty votes. Now he is finding out, not many people are on ‘team turnbull’ or have the get up and go to run with him. Alas the general panic among most Libs because they must realise they have actually done nothing over the last three years. Nothing at all, bar knifing a first term PM. And thats sad, because not only did they do what they criticized labor for relentlessly for, they must now also realize they don’t have the strong base like Gillard (aka Unions) to help drag the party across the finish line and that infact, Turnbull has pissing into the face of liberal supporters and not going on talk back radio and removing the Liberal name from everything.
Labor on the other hand. Policy, Leadership, Unity.
I naturally vote right, but there is nothing this election on the right worth supporting, no clear plan, no leadership, no unity. Nada! In fact a hung parliament with the libs would be a black hole for the Australian Parliment. So while Labor will spend more, will most likely start the boats again, I still think they will do better than the divided Liberals over the next three years. I feel sorry for the center right, but thats life and we need to clean our house up.
Sky News Australia
22m22 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Sanders to join with Clinton to beat Trump http://bit.ly/28pvlzg
kevin bonham @ #15 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 7:27 pm
The shift in Queensland was not repeated to anything like the same extent in NSW (though last-election preferences were inaccurate there). Also there was barely any sign of it coming in Victoria, and it wasn’t repeated in the Canning by-election. I think it was an oddity made possible by a massive primary vote swing and the strange attributes of optional preferencing.
The other point is that respondent preference samples are volatile. One sample will find them swinging to Labor by this much then the next might not show anything.
The lack of prior measurement of NXT prefs is an issue though. Especially since a lot of those people won’t actually vote for NXT since it won’t be fielding in their seat.
I take your points KB, but I would think that the strong X vote in SA is basically the local manifestation of the flight to “others” and by saying that trying to measure where that will go is a bit difficult rather serves to confirm my original point.
Jack A Randa: it’s hard for a non-country South Australian to understand the strength of feeling towards NX in country SA and it’s even harder for someone not even from SA to understand.
NX has developed a reputation as someone to be trusted. Yes, he loves his publicity stunts, usually involving cringe-making puns, but at the end of the day he gets runs on the board for the work he and his staff do for ordinary South Australians.
I’ve worked for many years in Labor MPs’ offices, and if there is one refrain I’ve heard time and again from constituents is that if you can’t fix (whatever the issue is) then they’ll go to Xenophon, as they’ve heard he can get things done (but only if you’ve tried your own MP first).
So while (thankfully!) I have never driven any constituents into the arms of Xenophon, it’s interesting that it appears to have happened enough for it to be a thing people talk about (and obviously in a positive way in terms of Xenophon getting results).
This is why I think the Xenophon thing in SA shouldn’t be interpreted so much as a “pox on both your houses” vote as a pro-Xenophon vote.
The reality is he is hugely liked, admired and trusted by many voters.
Good evening once again,
It should be remembered this is only one poll. Three weeks to go.
I still strongly believe that labor is following a plan crafted out and thought through months ago.
Irrespective of the MSM going on about labor being forced to do this and that and ” shamed” into making savings announcements this week, labor is working to a plan.
I trust the campaign team, they have not put a foot wrong so far and they will continue to do it their way.
Whether it will work, well, we will not know that for a week or two yet and perhaps not until election night but jeez they will give it a crack.
Keep the faith and a good night to you all.
Cheers.
Chinda63
Tops post.
Is someone going to say: stuff the major parties, I’m going to vote for the X man and then, when they find out there is no X-man standing in their seat, vote for the Government? Seems a bit odd to me.
X seems to occupy the right part of the space formerly taken by the Australian Democrats (the Meg Lees or Don Chipp Democrats) and long since vacated by the ‘Liberals’.*
* actually ‘Liberal’ might have been a good name for his group if it had not already been taken by the Conservative/Market Fundamentalist/Far Right alliance
Rummel,
Thanks for that great reply. Much appreciated.
Cheers.
Chinda – did you read this? The libs shouldn’t have dumped Jensen. He’s on a mission. I hope no Labor MPs act like this.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/10/dennis-jensen-accuses-liberals-of-profiling-constituents-and-neglecting-decided-voters
A lot of people vote x in senate and their own party in reps in SA. Polling is only for reps however a large amount polled will probably just say x anyway. I get that from family members and friends.
Interesting, Chinda, but at a bit of a tangent to what I said. Are you suggesting that X’s appeal is particularly strong in country SA or does it, as I would assume, apply to the whole State? Cos if the latter, then my conclusion that they’ll take all 11 seats looks good.
Without seeing the data for other seats, that’s a bit of a wild conclusion. Grey is in a different region than the Adelaide seats. There might be local factors at play, a good NXT candidate, who knows?
Without looking at other seat polls, one can only guess.
Also worth pointing out Labor has very low polling in Grey, so it’s easy for them to slip to third place. Not so much in other seats.
As I said the other day, I really wanna see Port Adelaide and Barker.
Barnaby…..The best retail politician in Australia at work
He’s would be perfect running the Tamworth Mad Barry’s
If X gets my vote in the senate in NSW it will be on the Tail end.
Steve777 – Liberal Democrats would also have been a good name if it hadn’t already “taken by the Conservative/Market Fundamentalist/Far Right alliance”
Have the VIC government completely lost the plot? Taking steps to sack the CFA is LooLooLand stuff.
I think a lot of voters who vote for minor parties don’t see it in a left-right context. They are looking for someone who they trust and perhaps has a policy or two they agree with – they probably don’t over analyse the situation much more than the average major party voter.
Labor is actually having a red hot go at attracting this type of voter. Hence lots of concrete policies and lots of talking to voters in less stage-managed environments than has been usual. As others have said, it may not work but I think we won’t know until pretty late in the game.
Those primary vote numbers are pretty horrid for Labor. Having said that, my gutt feeling, and it is only that, is that Labor will get a very generous preference flow. I think that a lot of people saying they are voting for indies/others are unhappy with the government, but not ready to give Labor their first preference. Then of course there are those who may find they don’t have an independent, or outside of SA an X candidate, to vote for.
Labor have had a couple of rough weeks in the campaign, but as others have suggested, maybe it had to be that way. I do expect Labor will finish stronger than the Coalition who do not appear to have much new to offer.
One more thing; the much predicted collapse in the Greens vote that I see from some regulars on here still is not happening.
[Davidwh
Friday, June 10, 2016 at 8:49 pm
Have the VIC government completely lost the plot? Taking steps to sack the CFA is LooLooLand stuff.]
And the volunteers are after blood on every Facebook page i’m on.
davidwh
No. They have not lost the plot. Far from it
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-10/cfa-board-sacked-by-victorian-government/7500518
Rummel @8:24PM: interesting.
Alas the general panic among most Libs because they must realise they have actually done nothing over the last three years. …they must now also realize they don’t have the strong base like Gillard (aka Unions) to help drag the party across the finish line…
I disagree about the strong base. The Coalition have about 50% of the people on side, but about 95% of the money and nearly all of the ‘natural’ sources of power and authority* in their corner. They’ll probably get over the line and replace Malcolm with the sort of hard right-winger they want in about a year’s time.
* Not all of course – the Unions (much weakened) are on Labor’s side, as are in broad terms the Arts community, what might be called the ‘liberal intelligentsia’ (politically weak) and maybe what might be called the ‘softer’ religious community (not the George Pell and Scott Morrison Christians, but those who believe in the guy who threw the job creators out of the temple) – also politically weak
Most of the individual seat polling in 2013 was inaccurate. I’m sceptical this time. However if the Libs lose Grey then the will lose government pretty badly.
http://www.salon.com/2016/06/10/the_democrats_party_derailed_bernie_how_the_establishment_has_worked_to_discredit_sanders_movement/
Rummel
Do you know about this matter?
“To the question ‘did CFA management and board members know that practices at Fiskville were unsafe or contravened standards of safety regulation?’, the answer again is yes, some did.”
She said the findings were directed at “professional managers that should have known better”.
Will they start 3 cornered PPM polling?
And before you smarties jump at me, there is no need to state the obvious problem with that.
Link
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-24/report-into-cfa-fiskville-training-facility-tabled-in-parliament/7440840
Early voting starts Tuesday.
ALP campaign lunch is a week away, and they still haven’t pushed the NBN policy.
Its a bad strategy to leave policy details so late, they should have got everything out before voting starts, it should just be smiling and waving from Tuesday.
No, sorry Victoria. I do not know much about that issue.
Rummel,
Top post from a true Menzian Liberal.
However, I beg to differ. Not in the way that you might be expecting but to say that I think that, even though Labor may be showing Policy. Leadership. Unity. I think the people are afraid. That’s why I think they will vote for the Coalition and it’s why they keep voting for them in poll after poll despite Labor’s obvious superiority.
Despite Parrakeelia.
Despite the $50Billion raid on the Treasury to give away to corporations and wealthy individuals.
Despite Turnbull doing a very good impression of a guy who can barely conceal that he can’t be assed really with the little people.
Despite the fact that everyone knows the Coalition are going to dismantle Medicare and Public Education, two great institutions of the egalitarian society, and send us instead into the realms of the UK’s new Health and Education and Welfare system.
Despite the fact that everyone realises that the Coalition are itching to finish the work begun with Workchoices as we should all know by now that it’s what the Coalition never say before an election but unleash upon us after an election that is what we are really up for here.
In fact, it’s because of that thing. It’s because of all those things.
People are afraid. They are very afraid. They are afraid of losing their jobs. They know that it’s all they’ve got keeping them and their families, who they love very much, from the breadline. So they are prepared to swallow hard and vote for the Coalition because they know that the backers of the Coalition are the ones that hold all the cards, and thus their lives in their hands. And if it comes down to voting for noble sentiments and the fair go, or self-interest, well, as Keating said, “Back the horse called ‘Self Interest’ every time.
Not because they don’t care about others, I’m sure they do, but because they have to care about their own first. If the choice is sinking or swimming, then they will swim to keep their heads above water.
That will get the Coalition over the line when it shouldn’t.
The base of the Coalition, on the other hand, are from the school of ‘Bugger you, I’m all right, Jack!’ They are the ones that benefit from the fears of the downtrodden. Also from the policies of, not ‘The Turnbull Coalition’, but rather what they really are, ‘The Corporate Coalition’. Led by the Corporate Man In Chief.
Rummel
It was a very big issue here in Vic. Investigation was conducted and findings were made. The site was closed down and the CFA was found to have failed monumentally.
I have heard from sources close to NXT they are confident of 4 Senate and 3 lower house seats in SA – Mayo, Hindmarsh and Boothby. That was before the polling released today.
The X phenomenon is hard enough to understand from within SA, let alone from outside! But at least he is a centrist, unlike most other populist politicians
Notwithstanding X’s high popularity for going into bat for ‘iron curtain’ workers in Grey which probably inflates his State wide reality, taking 17 points off the Fibs 2013 first preferences and 14 from Labor to score 29.3 in that ReachTEL seat poll is going to scare the bee gees outta anyone holding a seat in SA where NXT might finish second- I would not want to be the Member for
Mayo, Barker, Grey, Sturt or Boothby right now – the unemployed and Super changes retrospective losers may want someone to blame and punish with an X
Hmmm looks like the polls are tipping the coalition’s way and with there not being any particular vibe for changing govt I agree with others who have said Labor have a huge uphill struggle to win from here. A hung parliament might be a good thing – at least it makes life difficult for the coalition to govern.
The danger with this election is if the Libs crawl over the line or win more enough seats to form a minority Gov situation the Libs will implode and who knows what will happen.
WarrenPeace:
Thinking further on that, I wonder if the coalition *would* try to form govt in a hung parliament situation? Have any journos asked Turnbull what he’d do if neither party has a majority?
BUG1 – Dunno. There is THREE weeks left to go. Most campaigns are just winding up now. This is when people should be paying attention. Certainly, it looks like the libs have put their feet up for the duration (except for Mad-Dog Morrison). Only decided voters will be voting early anyway. Surely, they’re the gimme voters.
The more Murdoch discredits X the more his votes go up.
victoria –
Sorry, has the government dismissed the CFA board because they ‘failed monumentally’ in the case you cite, or because they took a different position on this EBA?
The context is the EBA debacle. If the government thought the CFA board were not doing their job properly with respect to other matters, they should have acted separately to the current imbroglio.
No, the Andrews government is playing stupid nasty hard politics for some reason – I’m guessing they see the UFU as a bigger potential problem and/or have made commitments to the UFU that they shouldn’t have made and can’t back out of – and it looks very bad.
Outsider
I have heard from sources close to NXT they are confident of 4 Senate and 3 lower house seats in SA – Mayo, Hindmarsh and Boothby.
—-
Xenephon will not get past Labor (37.1 in 2013) on first preferences and take second spot for the 2PP preference flow against the Liberal (46.1) in Hindmarsh. However, his voters WILL help Labor to win with the backing of Green (8.8 in 2013) second preferences given the demographics of this seat cf Grey at one extreme and the hobnobs in Mayo at the other, IMHO.
If the Libs crawl over the line they’ll probably will get rid of Malcolm as soon as they have a plausible right-winger to take his place. The mainstream media will run interference.
As long as they can keep from imploding, it won’t be like the 43rd Parliament. Big money and the mainstream media will be in their corner. They won’t seek taxes from Big Money to fix the ‘budget emergency, they’ll hit the poor and powerless, so no flack from the media there. An L/NP Craig Thomson will be sheltered. An independent Speaker would be hailed as a master stroke. If the deficit and debt continue to balloon the Government will be allowed to blame it on Comodity Prices or a slowdown in China or Labor or the cross bench or anyone and everything except themselves. Cruelty to exported live animals won’t faze them or the media.
And 5 minutes after they’re securely ahead in the polls, an election will be called. If Donald Trump has started a war by then it will be a khaki election.
Jackol
Mr Merlino said additional safeguards had been made to the agreement to address the issues raised by the CFA, but their refusal was not the sole reason for the decision to sack the board.
He said the recent inquiry into Fiskville and a recent review of the fire services found “significant cultural and governance failures”, morale was low and there was “an enormous divide between senior management and firefighters”.
“Volunteer and career firefighters have told us they’re sick of being used as a political football – they want this fixed so they can focus on fighting fires and keeping their communities safe,” he said.
Bug1 I have to strongly disagree. I know a lot of people do vote early; but the last three weeks of the campaign, any campaign, are still absolutely critical. It is still when the majority of people will think about the election. I think Labor will win the last three weeks; starting with Shorten on Q&A next Monday.
I queried NXT’s Hindmarsh confidence too. Its based on the Greek community abandoning Labor in droves over marriage equality (X being of Greek heritage doesn’t hurt). Believe it or not. With a number of potential 3 way contests, seat based polling in SA over the next week or two will reveal more.
Steve777:
Sadly what you say is highly likely to be how a coalition minority govt unfolds.
Please pardon me if someone’s already answered this, but does the Lib/ALP TPP in Grey in this ReachTEL poll come to something like 53.4/46.6? Would this be a TPP swing from Lib to ALP of 10.1%? I wonder if this gives us some clue about the sort of TPP swing to the ALP in SA seats in which NXT comes behind Labor.
victoria – the emergency services minister installed today would say those kinds of things to try to paint some sort of vaguely reasonable picture of their otherwise boneheaded actions for which there is very little possible explanation.
“Some anonymous people have told us we should do something, so there!”
If there really is a groundswell of opinion to the effect that the CFA board should be sacked then it isn’t visible, and the optics of basically flouting even the judicial injunction – there’s court stuff happening in 12 days, why not at the very least hold off until that is settled.
It’s rushed ugly action because the government is backed into a corner – probably of their own making – and they want to use all the power of the state to force a resolution as quickly as possible now that the shit has hit the fan.
Steve777 #93 Friday, June 10, 2016 at 9:34 pm
If only we members of the MSM who weren’t brown hole suckers, or cared about the future of our country.