Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll tells a familiar tale, with the two-party vote unchanged over four successive polls, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal decline levelling off, and Bill Shorten continuing to rise.

The latest Newspoll for The Australian is the fourth successive result from the pollster showing Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 36% (down one) and Greens 11% (steady). Leadership ratings echo other pollsters in finding Malcolm Turnbull levelling off after a steep decline in the early months of the year, with approval steady at 38% and disapproval up one to 50%, and Bill Shorten continuing to improve, with approval up four to 37% and disapproval down three to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-27 to 46-31. Expectations of a Coalition in have diminished considerably since the question was last asked in March, with 44% now favouring a Coalition win (down 11%) and 33% favouring Labor (up eight). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1709.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,704 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. Diogenes,
    The law in Qld does not prevent doctors being charged for performing abortions. there legal status is a bit shaky.

  3. Why are the federal Greens talking about state issues on the day when the federal coalition govt’s economic mantra is unravelling?

    So sick of these weasels doing the work for the Liberals!

  6. momma,

    That’s a very interesting interpretation.
    I can assure you there are thousands of years of history that disagree with your assertion.
    But, you already knew that.

  8. Zoomster, correct re current legal position.
    I suspect the Greens constitutional law position (whether or not they have thought it through) might be correct though, i.e. that there could be Federal power via external affairs to impose decriminalisation (women’s reproductive autonomy clearly being a matter of international concern which is enough to enliven Commonwealth legislative power, without having to get to what treaty obligations do or don’t mean).

    On a different but legally connected issue I had a small part in the Toonen v Australia “communication” to the UN which assisted in valid Federal legislation being passed re decriminalisation of intimate acts “against the order of nature”, whatever the f… that means; prior to that, law in that area was a State matter too.

  10. Just because its not a definition ‘a child’ does not mean it needs to be destroyed.

    Its still a life form that is killed because man deems so.

    All babies should not have stigma attached to them.

  11. MM

    Some Native American tribes owned black slaves of course

    I believe the Cherokee and Choctaw tribes fought with the Rebels to keep slavery.

  13. The Greens have marched into the Nationals heartland of rural NSW and they are gunning for top dog Barnaby Joyce, accusing the “sell-out” Deputy Prime Minister of forsaking the interests of farmers by denying climate change.
    ::::
    Regional support for the party is growing. In last year’s NSW election, they successfully converted the north coast seat of Ballina, held by the Nationals for 27 years, and almost knocked off Lismore.

    On Mr Joyce’s homefront battle, Senator Di Natale endorsed the challenger.
    “We’ve got a Greens candidate in New England and I think people should support him but if it’s a choice between between Tony Windsor and Barnaby Joyce, Tony Windsor offers a much more enlightened view of what it means to represent a rural community.”

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-richard-di-natale-rounds-on-dinosaur-climate-denier-joyce-20160524-gp2n63.html#ixzz49ZvYwxor

  14. Belated reply to Puff 10:33 & Bemused 10:43

    I have no doubt parties do polling to some extent, but I do not believe they have access to some secret more accurate method that the public polls. My initial response was to Peta Credlin, who hinted (wink-wink) that she did have such superior access and the fact she was talking about the ALP PV means she was talking nationally.

    My guess in Oz the parties would be more interested in local seats that the major’s don’t cover, and I doubt they would be as accurate as the majors. It is probably just as good to gauge the “vibe” you are getting over the phone.

  17. On Mr Joyce’s homefront battle, Senator Di Natale endorsed the challenger.
    “We’ve got a Greens candidate in New England and I think people should support him but if it’s a choice between between Tony Windsor and Barnaby Joyce, Tony Windsor offers a much more enlightened view of what it means to represent a rural community.”

    So now Di Natale is trying to undermine Windsor’s chances. A endorsement from Di Natale is not a good thing.

  19. From today’s Crikey:

    On the weekend, Labor announced it would fund another commissioner dedicated to lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex issues to the tune of $1.4 million. The LGBTI commissioner would be a champion of LGBTI rights in Australia, Labor’s Penny Wong and shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus announced at Rainbow Labor’s campaign launch in Melbourne on Saturday.

    A proper process would be undertaken to appoint a person to the new position, Dreyfus says. Labor had been critical of Santow’s appointment to the Human Rights Commission, stating that his role could be part time as part of the president’s role, but it is understood that Labor would be unable to sack Santow under the Australian Human Rights Commission Act, and it will not seek to redirect Santow to undertake the role of LGBTI commissioner.

    At the time, Dreyfus said that Santow’s appointment was “a backdoor $700,000 cut” to the commission.

    Dreyfus told Crikey that the new LGBTI role was in addition to the existing commissioner roles, and Labor would work with the Human Rights Commission to ensure adequate funding for the organisation.

    “Labor is providing $1.4 million in additional funding for the LGBTI commissioner over four years as a new statutory role in addition to existing commissioners. Labor is acutely aware of the funding issues faced by the Human Rights Commission, including the special efficiency dividend announced in this year’s budget. We will work with the Human Rights Commission to ensure they are sustainable and strong,” Dreyfus said.


  21. Regional support for the party is growing. In last year’s NSW election, they successfully converted the north coast seat of Ballina, full of dead hippies and New Age entrepeneurs, which was formerly held by the Nationals for 27 years, and almost knocked off Lismore, which is also full of dead hippies and New Age disciples.

    There. Fixed it. 🙂

  23. Zoidlord,
    It is not a life until the foetus can be and is sustained independently of the uterus. A foetus is not a child. While the foetus is sustained by the mother’s body it is not a child. That is my understanding of the law.
    Also some may be uncomfortable that a woman can make these decisions, but it is her body and she has the ultimate say in such matters. Women have been having abortions since the year dot. The ruling patriarchy who control resources and particularly medical resources may try to deny women the right control their own reproductive processes but this will be resisted.
    Perhaps the energy and funds spent on trying to prevent abortions could be spent on addressing the gender pay gap and overall greater poverty of women around the world so they will have less reason to terminate their pregnancies.

  24. C@t: top post earlier.

    RH and Doug: gold star for the “Wentworth Gelding”

    John Reidy,
    [Thanks RH for channelling Doug, there must be something in the sea water causing all of these perceptive sea creatures.]
    Acid. Carbonic acid.

  25. @Puffif she doesntvwant it then she shouldnt take responsibility of taking a life she does not want to create, the law is created by man and those with power.

  26. Question,
    But Sammie the Tenterfield Terrier is quite confident of his private polling and he didn’t leak. He just aimed.
    His is a focus group of one.

  27. Jeezus, c@tmomma – I’m seeing an awful lot of nastiness, but most of it’s coming from the Labor supporters to the Greens, rather than the other way round!
    After all, weren’t the Laborites here ordering the Greens to go after Coalition-held seats? And now that they are, all they get from you is…mockery and complaints, because you wanted someone -else- to knock off the sitting Coalition frontbencher!
    I’d have thought that you’d be overjoyed – if it’s Windsor vs. Greens candidate for the lead on the vote, Joyce is toast. Whatever happened to “focus on the Coalition!”?

  28. Zoidlord
    It is her decision and her right to take that life if she wishes. She is the mother and carrier of the foetus. She controls her reproductive processes. That is the harsh but true measure of it. No-one has a greater right to interfere and prevent this. I am sad for the ones who do not get the chance to be born but I would prefer for the state to work towards motherhood being without the struggle and hardship it is for billions of women.

  30. puff, the magic dragon. @ #1679 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 11:37 pm

    Zoidlord
    It is her decision and her right to take that life if she wishes. She is the mother and carrier of the foetus. She controls her reproductive processes. That is the harsh but true measure of it. No-one has a greater right to interfere and prevent this. I am sad for the ones who do not get the chance to be born but I would prefer for the state to work towards motherhood being without the struggle and hardship it is for billions of women.

    I am not as relaxed about it as you appear to be and view it as an undesirable procedure as are many other things that are not illegal.
    I agree with Obama’s position that it should be legal, safe and rare.
    One of the great ironies, and something that is inexcusable, is that the most fervent opponents of abortion being legal, are also the most fervent opponents of the availability and use of effective means of contraception. Hypocrites!

  31. I would love to see every mother cared for, looked after during her pregnancy and afterwards, so that pregnancy is welcomed and enjoyed for all women. But that would need a big change in the way things are done, and will not happen in my lifetime.

  33. “SHE was Julia Gillard’s captains pick at the 2013 election but despite resigning from politics the former prime minister is standing by Nova Peris”

    Whatever.

  34. Not a huge issue for me, but re: abortion I’m with Puff. Safe, legal and rare.
    Safe for health reasons.
    Legal for justice reasons.
    Rare for social-justice reasons.

  37. matt @ #1678 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 11:32 pm

    Jeezus, c@tmomma – I’m seeing an awful lot of nastiness, but most of it’s coming from the Labor supporters to the Greens, rather than the other way round!
    After all, weren’t the Laborites here ordering the Greens to go after Coalition-held seats? And now that they are, all they get from you is…mockery and complaints, because you wanted someone -else- to knock off the sitting Coalition frontbencher!
    I’d have thought that you’d be overjoyed – if it’s Windsor vs. Greens candidate for the lead on the vote, Joyce is toast. Whatever happened to “focus on the Coalition!”?

    I didn’t make any comment about the seat of New England.

  39. c@tmomma @ #1572 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    Mr Mundine said Labor had no credibility when it claimed to be the party for Aboriginal people.
    Yes they do. They never pre-selected Warren Mundine for the Senate, a winnable House of Reps seat, or even an unwinnable one!
    They did choose Pat Dodson, Linda Burney and Nova Peris. Plus the better Wyatt alternative, in State politics in WA, Shadow Treasurer, Ben Wyatt.

    Ben Wyatt is one of the most impressive people in politics in WA.

  40. The thing tat strikes me about the ‘Black Hole’ allegation is,

    How is it possible to talk about a ‘Black Hole’ until all policies and costings are released?

  42. victoria @ #1564 Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 10:01 pm

    c@t
    Appreciate you sharing this on the blog.
    And this latest crap from the Greens is definitely beneath it contempt. They should be ashamed

    Of all the issues to use to raise some publicity during an election, and to choose as a club with which to beat Labor, abortion would have to be one of the most squalid imaginable. The G’s have sunk to new depths today.

    I’ve been taking note of those posters who object to the critique of the Split; been thinking I might ease off. But we can all see the G’s don’t want temperate politics. They want shouting and they want insults. They want truculence. They enjoy malice, rancour and contempt. These are their main products. The politics of anger, spite and tumult. They employ the techniques of the fascists. In their own fashion, they are just like Murdoch and at least equally detestable.

  43. Briefly, for your own peace of mind, I suggest you take a deep breath and calm down. From what I have heard (via the SMH article, and please inform me if you have seen otherwise), the Greens released a policy regarding abortion accessibility – a policy area that they have long held consistent, and consistently progressive, views on. That is all they did.
    They didn’t slam Labor. Or the Coalition. Or “major parties” in general. They simply said that more money should be made available to ensure that a woman has, in practical as well as theoretical terms, the right to decide whether or not she wants to bear a child, rather than being forced (de facto or de jure) to carry it to term against her wishes.
    If you want to claim that they were posing while Labor did the hard yards on the issue, fine – there’s a case there. If you want to claim that their proposal is un-Constitutional or impractical, also fine – there’s a case there, too, although I think it’s weaker. If you want to claim that they’re pandering by timing their release of this policy – well, all politicians do that, do they not? But I am honestly not seeing the “insults, truculence, malice, rancour or contempt” that you’re alleging in this policy release, not even hints of them.
    Not everything they say is an attack on Labor.

  44. C@Tmomma
    Admiration!
    On another unrelated point of business.
    I suppose the burning of bullshit would be a greenhouse gas producing agent. The NLP wonders are major producers.
    Shame.

  45. Briefly,

    Of all the issues to use to raise some publicity during an election, and to choose as a club with which to beat Labor, abortion would have to be one of the most squalid imaginable. The G’s have sunk to new depths today.

    I know I have sworn off fighting Greens trolls on this blog until 3rd July, but, yes, the Greens have sunk to a new low today. Using this ( a state issue) to try and distract Labor from fighting the LNP is despicable. I am pro-choice, and so is everyone else in the Labor party that I know. Yes there are one or two ALP Grouper Troglodytes that may not be pro-choice, but we are getting rid of them at a rate of knots.

    Additionally, it is only Labor who has the social policies in place to help woman who actually do decide to continue with a pregnancy.

    The Greens could easily have waited to raise this as a private members bill in the new Federal parliament, but my guess is they want to see the far right attack Labor for not repudiating the Labor pro-choice position. And before all you Greens and useful idiots start squealing like stuck pigs, yes, Labor is pro-choice, even if they do allow a conscience vote.

    As I have said earlier, it is only ever Labor Governments who have decriminalized or legalized abortion.

  48. DaM,
    Is it just me, or could your statement be copy-pasted to slam ANY policy statement by the Greens, on ANY issue (changing the subject name only)?
    If you’re going to accuse the Greens of wanting to hurt Labor by releasing a policy, well then – there is quite literally NOTHING they could do that you wouldn’t call the same!

  49. all is quiet on pb, so miss CrikeyWhitey when I am overseas, she and I used to have great conversations in the early hours of the morning

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