The flurry of national polling conducted after the budget for release at the onset of the official campaign has been followed this week by a lull in new results at national level, but with Galaxy and ReachTEL making sizeable entries in state-level federal polling from Queensland and Tasmania respectively. The only national results were the regularly weekly Essential Research and the first campaign poll from Roy Morgan, the latter of which was strong enough for Labor that they have moved back into the two-party lead by the barest possible margin. However, the strong showing for the Coalition in the Galaxy Queensland poll causes them to register 1.2% higher this week in that acutely sensitive state, translating into two extra seats to partly cancel out losses of one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Essential Research has provided new numbers for leadership ratings this week, and these seem to suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s slump is levelling off.
Some of you will no doubt be looking askance at that swing currently projected in Western Australia, and I don’t blame you. There are seven data points in the model from the past three weeks with a combined sample of 1048, which individually have the Coalition’s primary vote in the state ranging from 35% to 44%, compared with 51.2% at the 2013 election. However, I suspect that if you look back in a week or two, you will find the projection moderating somewhat. It’s also worth observing that the model is now crediting Palmer United with all of 0.1% of the national vote. The only pollsters who are still tracking the party are Ipsos and Morgan, with both ReachTEL and Essential having swapped them in their questionnaire for the Nick Xenophon Team. The last five data points for Palmer United are all 0%, and the previous ten were evenly divided between 0% and 1%.
News snippets:
• The Advertiser reported yesterday that a privately conducted ReachTEL poll had produced an encouraging result for Matt Williams, Liberal member for the marginal Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. Williams was credited with 41% of the primary vote, compared with 25% for Labor candidate Steve Georganas, whom Williams unseated in 2013, 14% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Daniel Kirk, 8% for the Greens, and 7% undecided.
• Nick Xenophon told the ABC’s Lateline his party’s strongest lower house prospect, Mayo candidate Rebekha Sharkie, was polling in the twenties. How formidable that makes her would depend entirely on how much of it was gouged from the vote for Liberal member Jamie Briggs, who recorded 53.8% of the primary vote in 2013.
• Labor has hit trouble in a sensitive spot in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, after it emerged that David Feeney had failed to declare a negatively geared $2.3 million property in Northcote on the register of members interests. The news media is now applying the blowtorch to other aspects of the real estate portfolio of Feeney and his wife, and bringing unwelcome attention to his once close association with controversial ex-Health Services Union identity Kathy Jackson. Feeney is under pressure in Batman from Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, who outpolled Liberal candidates in her previous runs for the seat in 2010 and 2013, respectively finishing 7.9% and 10.6% behind Labor at the final count.
• A week after Labor dumped its candidate in the seat, there have been headlines about the contentious views of Sherry Sufi, the Liberal candidate for the Western Australian seat of Fremantle. Sufi’s conservative positions on matters such as same-sex marriage and the stolen generations apology had been well known, but Malcolm Turnbull contrived to make an issue out of them when he visited the electorate on Monday to spruik a local shipyard’s contract to build naval patrol boards, and neglected to invite his candidate. There have also been questions raised about the accuracy of Sufi’s employment record as presented on his candidate nomination form. Also absent during Turnbull’s shipyard visit was Premier Colin Barnett, whose leadership is increasingly coming under pressure amid deterioriating opinion polling.
Markjs
Dutton is continuing where he left off yesterday. Either he is off the reservation, or Turnbull is giving him his full support to do so
Darn – further to the WA speculation – I seem some posters are talking in terms of “winning” 6 seats. I prefer to use “hold” for those Labor already counts as theirs and anything beyond this is “win”. Thus, Burt being a new seat is actually held by no party and has to be won. Beyond this, I think there are 2/3 other seats which Labor should reel in meaning they hope to gain 3-4 extra seats on those they already hold. I supposed it all amounts to the same thing as even the three seats that Labor holds have to won again, but you know what I mean.
Victoria
Of course there r many factors, block size, corner blocks, no heritage or vegetative overlay and close proximity to transport/shops plus in our suburb special council zoning allowing development up to 6 storeys for some streets all drastically affect price.
Tricot
I think your anlaysis seems pretty spot on. I expect there to be good gains in WA, but probably not quite enough to secure government. Burt and Cowan look winnable, but I would be cautious about Hasluck. I imagine quite a few progressives would be reluctant to vote against Wyatt a successful indigenous member. However manybe Swan is winnable. 6 seats out of 16 may mot be spectacular but it is a very solid beginning for recovery.
Here in Qld I think that William’s figures are a little too conservative and I think we will pick up 5 seats – Capricornia, Petrie, Bonner, Brisbane and Forde. Dickson is a long shot but I would not rule it out.
Finland, best education in the world, best metal bands in the world, better government and open borders!
Scott Bales..
You are correct ..I mean’t, of course: $1,600,000.00 ..the largest single donation by a big business in Federal history..
..my initial mistake was inadvertent.. 🙂
Just thinking back to last weekend’s Insiders, Niki Savva made a cryptic comment at the end that the Libs had some more dirt to throw at Labor. I wonder if she was referring to the Feeney thing.
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus
Seven in 10 Australians think the government should do more to help refugees (link: http://trib.al/0TPwiAa) trib.al/0TPwiAa
zoomster @ #39 Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 8:14 am
So you think 55% is good?
Hmmmm… 🙁
CC
“Labor can’t afford to do FTTP”
So you admit your mob have well and truly fucked the NBN, just like the Greens fucked the CPRS and Malaysia.
Short sighted spivs.
Re CC @9:50AM.
OK, intersting. The total Bulk Billing rate has been around 78% in recent years, having gradually increased from the low 70’s at the turn of the century. In particular, it seems that the freeze initially imposed initially by Labor and extended by the Coalition hasn’t yet bitten (it may have halted the increase, but that’s unprovable).
(Section 1.4a: http://health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/1A9DB6D72BD5879ACA257BF0001AFE28/$File/MBS%20Statistics%2020161%20MarQtr%2020160406.pdf)
But my point still stands. The longer the freeze lasts, the more pressure there will be to abandon bulk billing. Either that or Doctors cut their income, which must be what is happening in many practices now, but that can’t last.
@ Markjs – and are you aware that the donation was from Graeme Wood, who is a regular sized person, not a big business?
victoria @ #42 Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 8:21 am
Read the story linked to earlier. It is clearly in the Batman electorate which does not include Kew.
CC I expect that even a pea brain like you can understand that delaying an increase to a Medicare item payments for six months is different to continuing a total freeze for six years, which is what the COALition have announced as their intention, and budgeted for. This is highly likely to result in the situation returning to that under Howard, with his total failure Health Minister Kay Paterson, where in six years from 1997 to 2003 they managed to force bulk billing down from 80% to 66.7%. This is what they clearly and obviously intend to do again.
The effects will be borne by the less well off. The agenda is clear, the figures are built into the current budget, and your pathetic attempts at obfuscation just show you up for the cherry picking liar that you are.
Darn
I am not sure the Feeney stuff is a big deal. He is a fool for forgetting to update his registry of interests, but hardly the first MP to do so. Having an investment property is not illegal, so I dont get what all the fuss is about in this regard. Most MPs have investment properties. Just because Labor want to change negative gearing policy, does not make existing arrangements wrong in some way
@ Markjs – and if the donation WAS from a big business, not a person, it would be far from the largest, topped by both QLD nickel and minerology.
Scott Bales..
Graeme Wood is the founder of Wotif ..a company in which he holds almost 20% of their shares ..Wotif is valued at around $1Billion.. it’s a ‘big business’..
DTR
The seats you mention are all in play. As some have said here, if it is close in the East, then for the first time in living memory, the election might come down to the wire here. Obviously, the election is won and lost in the East for the most part and between them, NSW, Victoria and Queensland determine the fate of the 10% of the electorate who live in Sandgropia. It will be a nice change for WA to actually get the spotlight when for the most part in previous elections, we all here might as well be in Mongolia on election night.
As I mentioned earlier the electorate is a bit surly here at the moment and if, in a week or two before the election they feel like beating somebody/anybody over the head, it will be the LNP which will cop it this time – but to what extent is the rub.
My observation here is that the Federal election is not tracking that much interest but Barnett and the fiasco of our local Perth City Council and its mayor is. I sense a certain weariness of politics among Joe Public and I don’t think anyone really gives a toss as yet.
zoidlord @ #155 Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 10:08 am
South Korea now at top. Finland excellent. Australia 15th.
Australian health system at 32nd.
Should I now go to reading Mein Kampf or a wonderful Nora Roberts romance story?
The INTEREST bill on Govt debt has blown out to more than $14Billion/year ..more than double the cost under Labor..
..spin that one, Mr Morrison..
If DTT’s calculations @9:56AM are correct, it’s back to the future – 2010. Maybe David Feeney will be the new Craig Thomson. While he is not accused of doing anything actually illegal, that won’t matter to a feral L/NP/Murdoch/IPA coalition in Opposition.
@ Markjs – you can’t honestly believe that.
The money belonged to Graeme, not Wotif. The decision to donate was made by Graeme, not Wotif. It was a personal donation, not a business one.
Lets say I buy stock in BHP. BHP pays me a dividend. I then donate that money to the Greens. Is that BHP donating, or me?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-19/afp-wins-access-to-james-ashby-phone-records/7427832
..spin that one, Mr Morrison..
It’s all Labor’s fault because of Boats, Pink Batts, School Halls and the rejection of the 2014 Budget, Boats, Boats, Boats, Terror…
Ken, I understand there is a new Malcolm Turnbull biography on the shelves. If you are looking for a romance story………
I have heard that Parramatta are in big trouble again regarding the salary cap. Apparently they have been caught hiding payments to their players under the heading of community donations. It has been found that the supposed donations were to the illegitimate son of Eric Grothe Jr, Jobson Grothe. Upon investigation, the salary cap auditors found that Jobson Grothe did not exist. More to come…
Tom.
MARKJS – The fact that Turnbull didn’t have an immediate answer straight after Dutton’s interview is a pretty good sign Dutton was improvising. Turnbull then had to workshop the issue before his next speaking engagement.
Looking forward to Bluey giving his first point to the Greens!
nappin @ #175 Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 10:25 am
Thank you VM. I like my romances have gentle lady and gentleman story lines. Self love story not so much.
Steve 777 @ 10.11
There was a trick built in by the Howard government when they introduced an extra item as a rural top-up / incentive to medicare rebates. My understanding is that this item could be added to the medicare data for each eligible patient for every single other item number at every visit, AND is counted in the bulk-billing stats. So a bulk-billed rural consultation counts a two bulk billed items. Sorry I don’t have time to find a link ATM
dtt… WA Labor have excellent chances to win Cowan, Burt and Hasluck. They have a very good chance to win Swan. They will be at least competitive in Stirling and Pearce. If things continue to go awry for the Liberals, Labor may also have a shot in three regional seats – Durack (formerly Kalgoorlie and Labor-held); Canning (which includes both South Metro and rural districts stretching down to Bunbury, and which has changing demographics); Forrest (taking in the SW where the slowdown has also been quite marked in some places and where there is a lot of demographic change).
I’m not suggesting Labor’s chances are high in those seats, but they bear watching, especially as the LNP campaign continues to disintegrate.
You have to be here to understand that voters have really lost confidence in the Liberals, a party that has dominated for many years and which has just failed repeatedly to deliver for WA. There is every chance the Liberals will get an enormous kick. Most voters will feel very well-pleased if that occurs.
Scott Bales..
OK ..I accept your point.. perhaps we can agree on this wording for the noticeboard:
“Greens are against political parties accepting donations from INDIVIDUALS that exceed $1,000.00 ..but THEY accepted the largest single donation from an INDIVIDUAL of: $1,600,000.00 ..which is 1,600 times more than their self-imposed limit”
Lets not forget the biggest fool of them all when for over 12 months Turnbull didn’t update his interests as Communication minister, when he had shares in NBN FIBRE construction project, a 40 odd billion dollar project vs a single house.
And then compare the number of coalition party members who have shares in houses.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Thursday, May 19, 2016 at 10:27 am
“MARKJS – The fact that Turnbull didn’t have an immediate answer straight after Dutton’s interview is a pretty good sign Dutton was improvising. Turnbull then had to workshop the issue before his next speaking engagement.
Precisely my thinking ..I made that very point in one of my previous posts..
[This underclass is very visible in Hobart where I live. They are a substantial presence in a large geographical area that begins a few kilometres north of the city centre: beyond a point that is known locally as the “latte line” or the “flannelette curtain”. While there are of course many hard-working people who live in this district (many of whom are newly-arrived migrants), ]
I to live in Hobart – I work north of Creek Rd – the flannel curtain (there used to b a lawyers office with that on their door) and live in South Hobart….no doubt there is a distinct divide some of my friends who grew up in Moonah and now live in Fitzroy where it is a badge of honour! Your point on education is a bit confused re funding saying that additional funding is not the answer but then saying it is needed for additional targeted resources such as case management but yep I agree. There is horrible weather here at the moment thunder and horizontal rain!
Pegasus..
You’ve had more than an hour to withdraw your accusation that I lied on PB..
Please provide the proof ..or withdraw ..thanks
And there is the France investment..
https://delimiter.com.au/2012/08/23/turnbull-in-conflict-of-interest-investment/
Yabba88
Will be interesting to see where this Ashby/Slipper/Brough thing goes
dtt
Melbourne prices are often hard to believe. My son was living in a house while probate was being sorted – absolutely nothing special, three bedroom brick veneer in a commuter suburb, nowhere near a train station and miles from the closest shopping centre.
When it came on the market, it was for over a million.
There is horrible weather here at the moment thunder and horizontal rain!
Now if you were living on the eastern shore, where it never rains, you’d be right.
(Disclosure: I lived in Dynnyrne and would never live on the eastern side of the river. )
psyclaw: “their kids are average or above but their attitude and their parents attitude is often unhelpful”
I have friends who teach in schools north of the flannelette curtain in Hobart. They report to me that the kids there, like kids everywhere, mostly range from slightly below average intelligence to slightly above. Many of these kids have parents who are long-term unemployed or disability pensioners and live in houses where the TV is constantly on, there are few if any books or even pictures on the wall. The parents (or parent, as is increasingly the case) do not promote learning in any way shape or form. The kids all have mobile devices, which they increasingly seem to be allowed to use in class unhindered (I don’t know if this is a Tasmanian-specific problem or a national one). They spend a lot of their time on facebook, instagram, etc.
The teachers are able to adjust to this situation and are still able to get the kids to do some work. However, the syllabus is dumbed down to a significant extent: talking to my friends who teach English (although it’s not called that any more), only the bright classes go anywhere near Dickens or Shakespeare these days and the rest mainly focus on easy-to-tread teenager-oriented novels written by people you’ve never heard of.
Anyway that’s what I’ve heard from people who teach in these sorts of schools. The statistics seem to back it up.
Certainly, these schools could do with more funding: particularly for career-oriented stuff. Tasmanian used to have dedicated “pathway” planners who focused on the kids in years 9-10 to help them decide whether or not to go on to years 11-12, what to study, what they wanted to do when they finished school, etc. These were abolished a few years back and the funding seem to have been redirected towards creating a level of “super principals” above the level of individual school principal to “help” the latter with their management tasks. (And then further budget pressures saw most of these jobs abolished anyway.)
So the system is a bit underfunded. But you can’t ignore the socio-demographic and cultural factors: it’s been proven in many studies that what makes a kid do well at school has at least as much to do with their circumstances at home as at school.
OK, yes, everything I’m saying is anecdotal. The stats show that kids in public schools from poorer areas generally do worse than those in public and private schools in better areas. You can interpret those figures as you wish: eg, that the whole answer is to put more money into the public system, or that the main problems are socio-demographic and cultural, or a combination of both. I think it’s a combination, and that the socio-demographic and cultural factors are very important.
Mark
Pegasus signed out an hour or two ago. You will need to wait until later.
Nappin – I grew up on the Eastern Shore (Tranmere before it was developed) and friends and family still carry on that it is warmer over there…..reckon you are about a kilometer from me at the most! Reckon Wilkie is fairly safe in our electorate and my hope is that Nikolic is out the door more hope than reality. Abetz was at the place I work last week I’m sure the temperature dropped
dtt at 08:00ish:
dtt
I believe Feeney’s property is in kew. $2,300 sounds right. substantial homes in that area can fetch well over 6 mill
The house is in the suburb of Northcote, not Kew. Northcote is not nearly as expensive as Kew. I think $2.3m is a lot for the property too, but it is 4 bedrooms and is sited on a block that is 900m. That is a very very big block of land for an inner suburban property. It is a developer’s dream as you could site a small block of units or multiple townhouses on it.
D
Found it – sold for $1.3 million…
http://www.domain.com.au/property-profile/15-maroondah-road-ashwood-vic-3147
Scoutdog: g’day, good to hear from a fellow Tassie!
I hope I clarified my point in my more recent post above. I’m certainly not saying that more funding isn’t required, but I’m also saying that there are significant socio-cultural factors which make it difficult for many disadvantaged kids to learn. When there was more lower-skilled, well paid work available in Tasmania (eg, Hydro and Forestry workers who got jobs for life), it didn’t matter so much. But the Australian labor market has changed, and the reality is that, in order to earn enough money to make it worth while not to do all you can to remain on social security payments, you need to have some marketable qualifications and/or be prepared to work really hard. And that’s a cultural shift for many Anglo Australians from blue collar backgrounds.
The answer is better education combined with strategies targeting attitudes.
That’s how I see it anyway.
My opinion hasn’t changed since last night. I’m with K17 and Markjs (and briefly and others). Dutton is not deploying a “cunning plan”, that would give far too much credit to the L-NP and too little to the Australian voter. They may be shoring up the base, but that is hardly something ALP supporters should be alarmed by.
Greg Jericho
1m
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut
Immigration, Border Force officials under investigation (link: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-19/immigration-and-border-force-officials-under-investigation/7427302) abc.net.au/news/2016-05-1… via @ABCNews
I do not want to get too far into the Feeney house, but is it true that he bought it from Kathy Jackson? If he did then I would be a bit worried about further scandals.
AFP can access the evidence from the Slipper Ashby civil trial