BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

Labor pokes its nose ahead on two-party preferred in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but a stronger showing in Queensland finds the Coalition keeping its head above water on the seat projection.

The flurry of national polling conducted after the budget for release at the onset of the official campaign has been followed this week by a lull in new results at national level, but with Galaxy and ReachTEL making sizeable entries in state-level federal polling from Queensland and Tasmania respectively. The only national results were the regularly weekly Essential Research and the first campaign poll from Roy Morgan, the latter of which was strong enough for Labor that they have moved back into the two-party lead by the barest possible margin. However, the strong showing for the Coalition in the Galaxy Queensland poll causes them to register 1.2% higher this week in that acutely sensitive state, translating into two extra seats to partly cancel out losses of one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Essential Research has provided new numbers for leadership ratings this week, and these seem to suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s slump is levelling off.

Some of you will no doubt be looking askance at that swing currently projected in Western Australia, and I don’t blame you. There are seven data points in the model from the past three weeks with a combined sample of 1048, which individually have the Coalition’s primary vote in the state ranging from 35% to 44%, compared with 51.2% at the 2013 election. However, I suspect that if you look back in a week or two, you will find the projection moderating somewhat. It’s also worth observing that the model is now crediting Palmer United with all of 0.1% of the national vote. The only pollsters who are still tracking the party are Ipsos and Morgan, with both ReachTEL and Essential having swapped them in their questionnaire for the Nick Xenophon Team. The last five data points for Palmer United are all 0%, and the previous ten were evenly divided between 0% and 1%.

bludgertrack-2016-05-19

News snippets:

• The Advertiser reported yesterday that a privately conducted ReachTEL poll had produced an encouraging result for Matt Williams, Liberal member for the marginal Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. Williams was credited with 41% of the primary vote, compared with 25% for Labor candidate Steve Georganas, whom Williams unseated in 2013, 14% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Daniel Kirk, 8% for the Greens, and 7% undecided.

• Nick Xenophon told the ABC’s Lateline his party’s strongest lower house prospect, Mayo candidate Rebekha Sharkie, was polling in the twenties. How formidable that makes her would depend entirely on how much of it was gouged from the vote for Liberal member Jamie Briggs, who recorded 53.8% of the primary vote in 2013.

• Labor has hit trouble in a sensitive spot in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, after it emerged that David Feeney had failed to declare a negatively geared $2.3 million property in Northcote on the register of members interests. The news media is now applying the blowtorch to other aspects of the real estate portfolio of Feeney and his wife, and bringing unwelcome attention to his once close association with controversial ex-Health Services Union identity Kathy Jackson. Feeney is under pressure in Batman from Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, who outpolled Liberal candidates in her previous runs for the seat in 2010 and 2013, respectively finishing 7.9% and 10.6% behind Labor at the final count.

• A week after Labor dumped its candidate in the seat, there have been headlines about the contentious views of Sherry Sufi, the Liberal candidate for the Western Australian seat of Fremantle. Sufi’s conservative positions on matters such as same-sex marriage and the stolen generations apology had been well known, but Malcolm Turnbull contrived to make an issue out of them when he visited the electorate on Monday to spruik a local shipyard’s contract to build naval patrol boards, and neglected to invite his candidate. There have also been questions raised about the accuracy of Sufi’s employment record as presented on his candidate nomination form. Also absent during Turnbull’s shipyard visit was Premier Colin Barnett, whose leadership is increasingly coming under pressure amid deterioriating opinion polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,731 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor”

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  1. Imacca,
    Re “dumber that Dutton”: I assume that Colvin and Dutton both suffer from ‘Plod’s Disease’, which has an effect on the brain’s ability to have intelligent thoughts. Symptoms include dumb facial expressions, a desire for fancy uniforms, and a need to treat the weak and vulnerable with contempt.

  4. Their role is to implement government policy. If you have an issue with Australia’s treatment of refugees and the secrecy around it, take it up with the government rather than demonising the public service.

    Public servants have a higher duty to the law that may sometimes conflict with their career advancement. While it is legitimate to focus most of the blame on the Minister, the Secretary of the department, and other senior managers, there are middle managers and even some lower level people who have opportunities to say no to illegal orders, or opportunities to subvert or throw sand in the wheels of illegal orders. If they fail to take those opportunities, they should be held accountable. Following orders and protecting your career does not excuse all.

  7. Ghost says ALP Primary up and LNP down

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 42.6 (-1.6) ALP 36.6 (+1.5) GRN 9.9 (+0.4) NXT 2.7 (-1.5) #ausvotes

  9. GhostWhoVotes
    35s
    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #ReachTEL Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 55.6 (-2.1) Shorten 44.4 (+2.1) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #ReachTEL Poll Shorten: Approve 27.9 (+3.3) Disapprove 38.4 (-5.6) #ausvotes

  12. Ruawake – it’s worth nothing that the current Macarthur is quite different, and much more favourable to Labor, than the Macarthur in 2013 due to the redistribution.

  13. The Ch7 coverage was good for the ALP, had Shorten in Penrith (where Turnbull cancelled) saying wtte that the locals are perfectly friendly and Turnbull should say hello.

  16. nicholas @ #1704 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 6:18 pm

    Their role is to implement government policy. If you have an issue with Australia’s treatment of refugees and the secrecy around it, take it up with the government rather than demonising the public service.

    Public servants have a higher duty to the law that may sometimes conflict with their career advancement. While it is legitimate to focus most of the blame on the Minister, the Secretary of the department, and other senior managers, there are middle managers and even some lower level people who have opportunities to say no to illegal orders, or opportunities to subvert or throw sand in the wheels of illegal orders. If they fail to take those opportunities, they should be held accountable. Following orders and protecting your career does not excuse all.

    Yes they do. But it is not the ‘law’ as determined by Nicholas and it is not international law where it is not supported by domestic law. It is domestic law where it is in conflict with a direction by the Minister. Public servants who are unhappy with the direction of their department can leave. And I can tell you from personal knowledge that many of the old immigration people have left because of the new regime.

    But at the end of the day, it is the government that is accountable. And if you think that the public servants should cop it for doing their jobs, all you are doing is letting Dutton and Turnbull off the hook. Which is probably what you want, given that you are more obsessed about banging up Labor than the Liberals.

  17. BTW, the primaries published on CH7 (which I posted) included the Undecided’s which is why the party numbers are lower.

  18. tpof @ #1670 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    Rod @ 5.44pm

    I’m pretty convinced that Labor are benefiting from this raid. This is getting the NBN talked about in a way that would not normally be possible due to the technical complexity of the alternativ e systems. I’m not so sure that the Dutton dog howling isn’t being effective. Although, without boats arriving in any sort of numbers above one, the sense of panic is not there.
    ……………………………………………….

    What have they got to hide and why ?

    Why are the Police being used to stop voters from being informed

  19. No change in Ipos:

    GhostWhoVotes
    17s
    GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (0) ALP 49 (0) #ausvotes

  25. With a Coalition primary vote of 38-39% Labor will win the election with a comfortable margin. Don’t see how you can get 50/50 on those primary numbers.

  26. So X is a former Tory and you don’t trust him. Fine.

    But he’s no longer a Lib. Hevotes often with Labor. So you preference the Libs ahead of him? Batshit crazy.

  28. And if you think that the public servants should cop it for doing their jobs, all you are doing is letting Dutton and Turnbull off the hook.

    Any large scale crimes and atrocities require the complicity and cooperation of hundreds or thousands of people. Make no mistake: Australia’s methods of dealing with asylum seekers – such as tardy and inadequate medical care, leaving people vulnerable to rape and assault, inflicting mental illnesses – are wrong by any civilized standard and also most likely involve breaches of Australian domestic law. There needs to be a thorough Royal Commission with a brief that does not spare middle managers and junior people who invoke the Nuremberg defence (‘just following orders’). If you read my comments closely (or even at all) you would see that I said the heaviest responsibility rests with the most senior people. My point is that it is wrong to claim that middle and junior people should necessarily be given blanket immunity from disciplinary action and/or legal penalties. There are sometimes middle-level and junior people who go further than they need to in inflicting misery on people, or who don’t take reasonable steps to slow down or subvert or question illegal practices.

  29. William, if you are around, is there any good reason why we need to log in every day or two? It hardly seems necessary.

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