BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor

Labor pokes its nose ahead on two-party preferred in the latest reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, but a stronger showing in Queensland finds the Coalition keeping its head above water on the seat projection.

The flurry of national polling conducted after the budget for release at the onset of the official campaign has been followed this week by a lull in new results at national level, but with Galaxy and ReachTEL making sizeable entries in state-level federal polling from Queensland and Tasmania respectively. The only national results were the regularly weekly Essential Research and the first campaign poll from Roy Morgan, the latter of which was strong enough for Labor that they have moved back into the two-party lead by the barest possible margin. However, the strong showing for the Coalition in the Galaxy Queensland poll causes them to register 1.2% higher this week in that acutely sensitive state, translating into two extra seats to partly cancel out losses of one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Essential Research has provided new numbers for leadership ratings this week, and these seem to suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s slump is levelling off.

Some of you will no doubt be looking askance at that swing currently projected in Western Australia, and I don’t blame you. There are seven data points in the model from the past three weeks with a combined sample of 1048, which individually have the Coalition’s primary vote in the state ranging from 35% to 44%, compared with 51.2% at the 2013 election. However, I suspect that if you look back in a week or two, you will find the projection moderating somewhat. It’s also worth observing that the model is now crediting Palmer United with all of 0.1% of the national vote. The only pollsters who are still tracking the party are Ipsos and Morgan, with both ReachTEL and Essential having swapped them in their questionnaire for the Nick Xenophon Team. The last five data points for Palmer United are all 0%, and the previous ten were evenly divided between 0% and 1%.

bludgertrack-2016-05-19

News snippets:

• The Advertiser reported yesterday that a privately conducted ReachTEL poll had produced an encouraging result for Matt Williams, Liberal member for the marginal Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh. Williams was credited with 41% of the primary vote, compared with 25% for Labor candidate Steve Georganas, whom Williams unseated in 2013, 14% for Nick Xenophon Team candidate Daniel Kirk, 8% for the Greens, and 7% undecided.

• Nick Xenophon told the ABC’s Lateline his party’s strongest lower house prospect, Mayo candidate Rebekha Sharkie, was polling in the twenties. How formidable that makes her would depend entirely on how much of it was gouged from the vote for Liberal member Jamie Briggs, who recorded 53.8% of the primary vote in 2013.

• Labor has hit trouble in a sensitive spot in the inner Melbourne seat of Batman, after it emerged that David Feeney had failed to declare a negatively geared $2.3 million property in Northcote on the register of members interests. The news media is now applying the blowtorch to other aspects of the real estate portfolio of Feeney and his wife, and bringing unwelcome attention to his once close association with controversial ex-Health Services Union identity Kathy Jackson. Feeney is under pressure in Batman from Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, who outpolled Liberal candidates in her previous runs for the seat in 2010 and 2013, respectively finishing 7.9% and 10.6% behind Labor at the final count.

• A week after Labor dumped its candidate in the seat, there have been headlines about the contentious views of Sherry Sufi, the Liberal candidate for the Western Australian seat of Fremantle. Sufi’s conservative positions on matters such as same-sex marriage and the stolen generations apology had been well known, but Malcolm Turnbull contrived to make an issue out of them when he visited the electorate on Monday to spruik a local shipyard’s contract to build naval patrol boards, and neglected to invite his candidate. There have also been questions raised about the accuracy of Sufi’s employment record as presented on his candidate nomination form. Also absent during Turnbull’s shipyard visit was Premier Colin Barnett, whose leadership is increasingly coming under pressure amid deterioriating opinion polling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,731 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Labor”

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  2. Rossmore
    Friday, May 20, 2016 at 5:31 pm

    When he wasn’t saying “Jobs & Growth” Cormann was interrupting Burke. Sales let Corman go on and on with mindless platitudes, and then kept wanting to rephrase her question to Burke while saying he wasn’t answering it.

    They were like children, and I’m surprised Burke kept his temper.

  4. “It would be unconscionable for the ALP to preference the Libs ahead of X. Don’t do it!”

    Nick Xenophon is not that much of angel. He is a former member of the Liberal party, and teamed up with Liberals for the senate reforms. He has also been wavering on the ABCCC, suggesting he will support it with amendments. But no outright refusal to back the legislation.

    I wouldn’t trust Xenophon with the balance of power in the senate with a Liberal government. You just don’t what to expect from him, he is certainly not someone who identify with the left.

  5. “And this ‘au pair’ were happy with my offer of board in lieue of $300 wages.” #ausvotes 
    :large

  6. “Why did Burke get interrupted by Sales 10 times & Cormann 0? Why did she let Cormann interrupt a further 8 times? ”

    Because she is a partisan hack who is totally compromised by her obvious lack of professionalism.

  8. So, the NBN dude on the raid took images of documents during the raid and sent them to people at NBN Co?? Bit of a WTF moment.

  9. Yabba, dunno how similar they are, has Woodward ever been propositioned by a girl with the pick up line “I’ve killed a grizzly bear , so imagine how good I am in bed” ?
    and Wil Anderson is a one L Wil

  11. The @NBNCoLimited has agreed to destroy photographs taken by one of its employees during last night’s AFP raids on Labor party offices

  13. [ The @NBNCoLimited has agreed to destroy photographs taken by one of its employees during last night’s AFP raids on Labor party offices ]

    But, I would think they will need to let the ALP and their lawyers know what those photographs were and who has had access to them before they do it.

  16. Ex-Fraser ministry chap on The Drum is very, very, very confident that when Mal wins the election (with huge majority), we will see the small l liberal Mal emerge and govern for us all.
    I don’t think the rest of the panel bought it.

  18. A city in India’s Rajasthan state has broken the country’s temperature records after registering 51C, the highest since records began, the weather office says.

    The new record in Phalodi in the desert state comes amid a heatwave across India.

    The previous record for the hottest temperature stood at 50.6C in 1956.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36339523

  20. Rod @ 5.44pm

    I’m pretty convinced that Labor are benefiting from this raid. This is getting the NBN talked about in a way that would not normally be possible due to the technical complexity of the alternativ e systems. I’m not so sure that the Dutton dog howling isn’t being effective. Although, without boats arriving in any sort of numbers above one, the sense of panic is not there.

  23. Re Sprocket_ @6:51PM: no matter, they can be revised downwards… after the election of course. The Government if it is returned than then cut what it wants to cut.

  26. More breaking news on the AFP raid.
    “Labor lawyers say AFP has admitted the NBN staffer at raids took photos of privileged documents and sent them to NBN’.
    This means Parliamentary privilege is undermined.

  30. Reachtell 50-50 (but the primaries have moved a point in ALP favour which should be good for bludgertrack)

  33. Riley says “ALP ahead but too many seats”… then very ominously adds “we could be heading for another hung parliament”

  35. Victoria

    From Penrith reaction Mr Shorten has suffered no political damage from AFP raids. So Murdoch influence there not working

  37. [The @NBNCoLimited has agreed to destroy photographs taken by one of its employees during last night’s AFP raids on Labor party offices]

    It’s not a case of destroying the negatives. Once those photos were taken they will live forever in cyberspace (or the cloud or wherever). Even if they are ‘destroyed’ they can be retrieved with greater or lesser difficulty depending on how much destroying was done.

    This just reinforces my opinion of the AFP that it allowed this to happen at all.

  41. Exclusive 7 News Reachtel poll puts Turnbull Government in losing position in a must-win marginal seat. @Riley7News

  42. I know I should know his name (and the face *is* familiar) but I’ve just watched some old Liberal fart play the “Just You Wait” card in support of Turnbull on The Drum (which I VERY rarely watch).

    We’re only going to know Malcolm’s True Wonderfullness if we elect the Libs back into government. Until then it’s nudge-nudge/wink-wink “watch this space”.

    Jesus also wept.

  47. david @ #1654 Friday, May 20, 2016 at 5:47 pm

    “It would be unconscionable for the ALP to preference the Libs ahead of X. Don’t do it!”
    ……Xenophon…..is a former member of the Liberal party
    I wouldn’t trust Xenophon with the balance of power in the senate with a Liberal government.

    …………………………………………………………………………………….

    Agree – I don’t trust Xenophon either.

    He’s not only a former tory, but was president of the young SA tories.

    The tories have done nothing for SA. They closed the car industry based on ideology and any significant numbers of jobs from the subs are several election away.

    The crow eaters seem to be putting everything on Xenophon having ‘the’ balance of power after the election – otherwise they may well end up with nothing and help stop Labor forming Government.

    If Xenophon picks up a swag of seats – does it all turn out like PUP after they have been elected and want to go their own ways ?

    Crazy.

  48. BB,

    I think it might have been Peter Baume who was a Liberal education Minister some years ago.

  49. [Peter Baume former LNP Health Minister I think]

    Baume is well on the left of the Liberal Party spectrum. So he is hoping. Tell him he’s dreaming!

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