As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:
• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.
• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.
• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.
I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.
Yes, isn’t nice during an election to know you can always come to PB to read the Left engage in the good fight…
…on each other.
JimmyDoyle thanks!
That would be the same idiotic Bandt who reckons that Labor wants to burn asylum seekers alive.
[And if those “some people ” are idiots ?]
I can’t speak for others, but for me it breaks down into two categories:
* when important idiots you need who are in positions of power able to thwart my desired outcomes mischaracterise what I say or do, I do my best to bring them around with small words, and no awful metaphors
* when unimportant idiots mischaracterise what I say or do I’m either amused in a smug arrogant way (hard to believe I know) or I am totally and utterly unconcerned.
I remember a couple of times investing some time trying to explain some things I thought were important to a couple of journalists for the local newspaper. I got a couple of articles up but generally you can’t work with idiots.
Sex Party to preference Labor in a number of key seats.
Greens are whingeing even more than usual. So, must be positive for the forces of good!
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-sex-party-backs-labor-in-key-inner-city-green-fights-20160509-gopwnu.html
shanebazzi: .@billshortenmp’s bulldogs, Theo and Tilly, are on Instagram https://t.co/q0Qcvyput6
What Airlines and others are trying to say is that you can indent a comment by enclosing it in <blockquote> and </blockquote>.
WWP
Nicholas called an innocent bystander , and son of one of our respected posters, a racist for no reason other than (apparently) to stir up trouble. This was one of the lowest post among a whole heap of very low posts today, most of which seem to have been made by various “holier than thou” Greens.
Mikehilliard
<blockquote>
indented text
</blockquote>
Will give you
Mikehilliard – no worries 🙂
And William beat me to it.
What’s with the RBA? First negative gearing, and now Alan Kohler is saying that “If you are worried that changing PM’s increases economic uncertainty – don’t be!” With a graph bases on RBA research 🙂
[Need to understand how we might influence outcomes in the marginals, through the party.]
Saw two items today that showed that, one strong one from labor that was heartening in its its simplicity and evidenced that they are in with a very real chance and one from the libs that reinforced the the labor one.
looking good for July.
Tom,
Yeah, but if Di Natale is up himself then it is proof, self evident that there is no end to this prick.
WWP
‘I’m going to bang my head against the wall one more time. I think there is an important distinction here between looking like a racist, acting like one, and having a heart that is consciously racist.’
Bang your head against the wall as much as you like. It is unlikely to do too much more damage.
A query: ‘Where exactly is racist sentience embedded in a heart?
Boris
I hope you are right 🙂
[That was a very poor accusation. Stop digging and say that you were wrong.”]
One I didn’t actually make I thought you might have noticed while doing all your insightful research to reach your conclusion?
Thank god I work and don’t bother reading back over the day’s (or night’s ftm) comments!
GG
Hysterical on so many levels.
Whoooooo. Just seen Tim Wilson on the Drum. doGs but look at his eyes??
Zombie or trying to fill Phillip Ruddocks shoes??
slav g @ #759 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 7:25 pm
Whoops, famous last words.
[Bang your head against the wall as much as you like. It is unlikely to do too much more damage.]
I notice you didn’t actually even try to substantiate your abuse, which I found interesting. And you add more abuse now just to show how above it all you are. Classy and interesting strategy, not all that compelling IMHO.
And now more trouble with metaphors, I’m sure it is done in many cultures in many different ways, but the Christian Bible often uses the heart as a seat of good and evil, without being specific as to the location of good and evil. I was taught to do exegesis extensively before I did it intensively and it is a long time ago, but I’m pretty sure the heart metaphor is independent of the blood pumping muscle.
As I said before it is amazing just how unwilling people are to discuss this, particularly in the context to the Goodes stuff which was a very public discussion with an unambiguous social outcome.
7:30 going with the Lindsay split. Got an exclusive interview.
WWP
Any time you want to stop feeling absurdly sorry for yourself you could always respond to my original comments. Do stop digging.
You are a condescending sod, WWP. You chuck accusations of racism about, get called on them, and then back off by making your comments even smarmier and smugger.
BW
Yeah I know, hopeless.
Fiona Scott on 7:30. Calls Lindsay a “fairweather” seat. What a slur! She might have meant “bellwether” but now she’s telling me how smart she is.
Mh
That was not personal. I was just piggybacking off your try.
Mikeh:
Don’t have a new line after your blockquote stuff. Keep it immediately before and following the text you want indented.
My turn to test indentation
MH
Thanks I got the hang of it watching you learn. 🙂
WWP
‘I remember a couple of times investing some time trying to explain some things I thought were important to a couple of journalists for the local newspaper. I got a couple of articles up but generally you can’t work with idiots.’
So, how long did it take them to wake up?
Corman v Wong now on 7:30
7:30 had some vid of Abbott looking sad in the rain. If I’d known I would have gone to cheer him up. Encourage him to “help” Turnbull.
Ok. I haven’t been game to try this new way of indenting yet, so here goes:
Now let’s see if I have managed not to stuff it up.
Bingo
[You are a condescending sod, WWP. You chuck accusations of racism about, get called on them, and then back off by making your comments even smarmier and smugger.]
LoL do you not see the irony there? where is the accusation of racism by the way, my specific words please.
[you could always respond to my original comments]
Could you be a bit more specific I read back to see exactly what I had written (I’m as guilty as the next person of getting a bit passionate at times so I wanted to be sure) and I found my post praising your contribution earlier in the day, but I must have missed the original comments you now refer to?
Flushed with that success, can someone please remind me how to do the indented text in italics?
[So, how long did it take them to wake up?]
More simple abuse, charming insightful stuff.
WWP
Excellent. It is never too late for you to gain even a preliminary understanding of the nature of abuse or, indeed of insightful stuff.
BWboerwar @ #781 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 7:42 pm
No I didn’t think that at all, I think we’re all finding our feet with this new format.
Darn, replace the word blockquote with the letter i for italics and use them both for both
[Excellent. It is never too late for you to gain even a preliminary understanding of the nature of abuse or, indeed of insightful stuff.]
When you are on a roll stick to it mate, I am happy to respond to your post if you have one that I have inadvertently omitted to respond to.
My original post:
‘I remember that Home Delivery show with Julia Zemero, where they spent half of it in Aly’s private school’s drama theatre and its revolving stage, Zemiro seemingly awestruck at the grandeur of her surroundings.
Made me want to puke!’
WWP’s response:
‘Yeah people with dark skin going to good schools, that makes a whole special class of person want to puke.’
WWP
Do unscramble your brain.
That was another trainwreck for the LNP. Corman denying Sales quote in same way Morrison did with Cassidy
Adrian
Combines being a bullshit artist with bastardry with games playing.