It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy

The official start of the election campaign has been marked by three new polls confirming the impression of a very tight race.

As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:

• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.

• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.

• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.

I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.

bludgertrack-2016-05-09b

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,094 comments on “It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy”

Comments Page 17 of 22
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  3. Thank christ that worked! Basically whatever markup you use will keep going until you close it with the slash another easy one is b for bold

  4. Then:
    ‘Yeah tell yourself that of course you aren’t racist’
    ‘It is the appropriate response to racism, and I do not apologise for it. ‘

  6. ‘where is the accusation of racism by the way, my specific words please.’

    That good enough for you? There are others but I can’t be bothered trawling through your gutter looking for them.
    Must be all that overflowing passion I guess.

  9. <blockquote><i>
    Indented text with italics formatting
    </i></blockquote>


    Indented text with italics formatting

    Replace i with b and you get the bold text

  13. [WWP’s response:
    ‘Yeah people with dark skin going to good schools, that makes a whole special class of person want to puke.’]
    There most definitely is such a class that has been my whole point the whole time. I’m a bit confused I thought you’ve said clearly you aren’t in that class and I don’t think I’ve ever disagreed, and if I did disagree or appeared too disagree with you excluding yourself from that class I completely and with out reservation apologise.
    I have tried to point out that the post creates a risk people will wrongly conclude you are in that class, with the failed ‘looks like a duck’ metaphor. I should probably have clarified a few hours ago, but the whole swearing, idiot, beat up in the pub stuff kind of had me not really wanting to help you that much.
    I fully accept you are pure of heart and did not mean to convey the meaning, or any meaning inconsistent with that pure heart.

  15. To avoid things going into perpetuity whatever you open (i.e. <keyword>) you must close (i.e. </keyword>). Where keyword is blockquote, i or b

  16. I think all righthinking people in this country are sick and tired of being told that ordinary, decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired.

  18. No worries MH. Slav even knows how to display the markup’s as they should be written. I would have to google that 🙂

  23. I saw Tim Wilson on the Drum, toeing the Coaltion line on boats. He accepts that we have to threaten asylum seekers who arrive by boats with indefinite imprisonment, and be seen to be preoared to do it, to stop them from risking their lives on a dangerous sea journey. It would be unlikely that he actually believes thatif he is a genuine proponent of individual freedom, although I accept that as a right-winger he probably shares their usual dislike and disdain of the ‘outsider’ and a punitive attitude towards any of them who step out of line.

    His position on boats is surely inconsistent with his other positions. He would be unlikely to favour restrictions on tobacco, fatty foods or sugar to protect community health. In fact he would call such interventions ‘nanny state-ism’. Likewise, I think he would be unlikely to favour having the authorities round up rock fishermen, formula one drivers and abseilers and subject them to indefinite imprisonment without trial is a jurisdiction outside the reach of Australian legal protections (what’s left of them). For the greater good, of course, as a deterrent to others who might want to take up these dangerous activities.

  24. The ones I used are easy to remember, because < is a "less than” sign so you write &lt;. Same goes for “greater than” sign >

  26. Lord Haw Haw @8:08PM: the term ‘right thinking’ people’ is used by ‘Right Wing thinking’ people.

  28. Bluey Bulletin 49 Day 49 of 103

    ABC VOX POPS
    Bluey was listening to the ABC vox pops this morning and went WTF? Nine out of ten had ponceY millionaire accents and they all went jobs and growth. Crap.

    GREEN ON THE OUTSIDE
    Bluey saw Turnbull picking up a watermelon. Bluey knows that the Liberals are counting on the Greens to help destroy Labor but Bluey reckons that fondling a watermelon in public is a step too far.
    FIGHTING TAX CHEATS
    Turnbull in a policy masterstroke is going to get rid of corporate tax evasion by getting rid of corporate tax.

    LABOR UNDERDOGS
    Bluey reckons don’t let the bastards spoof the troof. Labor is enter the election period behind and has underdog status.

    SPOILERS
    Jensen is going to run against the Liberals but try to stay a Liberal. Bluey reckons they will turf him out.
    Some Labor idiot candidate still does not get it that raising differences of opinion about refugee policy can sink Labor’s chances in the election.
    Bluey notes that Dutton is deliberately trailing his coat, with a report on the two boats, discussing preferencing Christians with Bolt, et cetera. Clearly the Liberals hope to drive a wedge inside Labor and to give the Greens some fodder to play with.
    Fiona Scott and the Whole NSW Liberal Party in the seat of Lindsay. Kami Kaze stuff.
    Savva not saying extremely pleasant things about Creddo.

    POLLING
    The bad news is that Labor is behind. The good news is that it is in the game.

    GREENS GO A MERRIO
    Do you think that the Greens might try to destroy the Liberal Party or the National Party? Nope. The Greens are trying to destroy a thoroughly decent person: Albo. Bluey’s advice to the Minerals Council is that their self-interest would best be served by funding the Greens as well as the Nationals and the Liberal.

    SIC TRANSIT GLORIA MUNDI
    Bitis arietans mirabellensis has been put on the endangered politicians list in Indi.

    AGENDA
    Bluey thought the Liberals got in the groove today. Turnbull looked like someone had injected him man stem cells. Labor has a more complex message to sell and it all sounds a bit bitsy to Bluey.

    CREEPING MILITARIZATION
    Turnbull’s press contingent is being flown around in a C130 Hercules.

    INVICTUS GAMES
    Bluey is thrilled about these games. He regards them as an excellent start. Next step would be to include players from countries which we have invaded, bombed, strafed, set on fire and the like. Bluey looks forward to vets with PTSD being included as well as family members who have had to carry extra loads in life as a result of living with vets.

    NORFOLK ISLAND HUMAN WASTE DISPOSAL MK 111 canned
    Whoever thought that running NI as a New Model Gulag has changed his mind.

    FAIR GO FOR MILLIONAIRES
    Corman was on 7.30 explaining how the Coalition is interested in a fair go for millionaires.

    DUTTON TRASHES YET ANOTHER THING
    Dutton today casually trashed the traditional Caretaker Conventions in relation to Opposition access to information. Turnbull does nothing about it, so owns it.

    BLACK SWAN EVENT
    ANZ and WESTPAC are both investigating mass fraud involving lending to foreigners who have purchased Australian homes. There is a bit of a view that a lot of people lied about something or other and that a lot of other people in the banks did not even notice… until a Banks RC hove into sight. Bluey wonders whether any of the homes purchased are empty and are not inaccessible to Australian young home buyers.

    Verdict for the Day: Liberals
    Cumulative tally: Labor 31 Liberal 18

  29. Yep…..
    Rowan
    3m3 minutes ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    So @MathiasCormann & @scottmorrisonmp believe a BIS Shrapnel report but NOT a RBA report on negative gearing.. Says it all really #abc730

  35. Captn Haddock…

    I’m sick and tired of saying to my wife how sick and tired I am of Cormann

    And your wife?

  38. Thanks BW
    Turnbull certainly gave his 3 word slogan a workout today. I’m sure he can’t do it for 50 days.

  41. WarrenPeace

    I will hold off using emoji then. No point if not all can see it. Let me know when you get fixed. A windows person can probably tell you what patch to use to update for emoji.

  45. BW
    If Bluey’s tally ends up with Labor well in front does that automatically mean they win the election?

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