It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy

The official start of the election campaign has been marked by three new polls confirming the impression of a very tight race.

As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:

• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.

• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.

• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.

I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.

bludgertrack-2016-05-09b

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,094 comments on “It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy”

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  1. From the old thread.

    Very ‘meh’ Newspoll. Only thing interesting to me is the ALP primary at 37… that’s getting closer to where it needs to be.

  4. I don’t know if you wait for the official results to come up on the website, William, but Ghost has tweeted these results regarding Galaxy:

    GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (-2) ALP 36 (0) GRN 11 (0) #ausvotes

  5. Vote Compass:


    GRN
    68%
    ALP
    65%
    LNP
    39%

    How you rate the party leaders:

    Bill Shorten
    90%
    Malcolm Turnbull
    25%
    Richard Di Natale
    5%

    😀

  7. The trend is ALP’s friend. No budget bounce at all. No election announcement bounce at all. Trend will continue. Rupie’s tabloids have been in election mode for weeks, with ridiculous front pages and all. No effect. Won’t get any more effective now.

  11. Well the budget doesn’t seem to have changed anything, neither 50 billion submarine announcement, at least on a national level.

  12. Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago

    This is going to be one tightly fought election.

  14. Well Vote Compass had me at 79% Green, 71% ALP and 37% LNP. They also put me in the top left quadrant. While I am socially progressive, I’m pretty sure I’m not that progressive, and I’m much closer to the economic centre.

  16. Leroy: Others must be remainder = 11%. With Others 45% pref to ALP and Green 80% pref to ALP gives 49.97 to ALP == 50% = tick

  19. b.c. @ #14 Sunday, May 8, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    Well Vote Compass had me at 79% Green, 71% ALP and 37% LNP. They also put me in the top left quadrant. While I am socially progressive, I’m pretty sure I’m not that progressive, and I’m much closer to the economic centre.

    What is the economic centre? Part trickle down and part Keynesian?
    You sound confused to me.

  20. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/election-2016-newspoll-shows-no-budget-bounce-for-pm-who-begins-campaign-behind/news-story/56fa4e916937ba7021e80fbc84f5b320

    Malcolm Turnbull begins the fight of his political life with the government failing to receive any poll bounce from last week’s budget, meaning the Coalition starts a marathon 55-day election campaign behind Labor, according to the latest Newspoll.

    Despite Mr Turnbull’s pledge to restore the Coalition’s poll lead and to show economic leadership when he toppled Tony Abbott as Prime Minister eight months ago, the Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals Labor has maintained its lead of 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in two-party-preferred terms.

    The Newspoll of 1739 people taken from Thursday to Saturday, in the wake of the budget that Mr Turnbull is using as a springboard for the election and the Opposition Leader’s budget reply speech, found no lift for the Coalition’s prim­ary vote, still at 41 per cent for the third consecutive survey.

    Labor gained one point to 37 per cent, its highest primary vote since Mr Turnbull became Prime Minister 238 days ago.

    Based on preference flows from the last election, with the Greens’ primary vote unchanged at 11 per cent and support for minor parties and independents down one point to 11 per cent, Labor maintained the 51-49 per cent two-party lead it has held since early last month.

  21. No other primaries in the article, charts will go up at midnight I expect.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/election-2016-newspoll-shows-no-budget-bounce-for-pm-who-begins-campaign-behind/news-story/56fa4e916937ba7021e80fbc84f5b320

    Election 2016: Newspoll shows no budget bounce for PM who begins campaign behind
    Phil Hudson The Australian May 8, 2016 10:30PM

    Malcolm Turnbull begins the fight of his political life with the government failing to receive any poll bounce from last week’s budget, meaning the Coalition starts a marathon 55-day election campaign behind Labor, according to the latest Newspoll.

    Despite Mr Turnbull’s pledge to restore the Coalition’s poll lead and to show economic leadership when he toppled Tony Abbott as Prime Minister eight months ago, the Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals Labor has maintained its lead of 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent in two-party-preferred terms.

  23. How you rate the party leaders:

    Bill Shorten
    90%
    Malcolm Turnbull
    25%
    Richard Di Natale
    5%

    I had both Turnbull and Di Natale on 5%. 🙂

  25. Henry:

    I ditched Foxtel a few years ago now, and can’t say I’ve really missed it. Except where the footy is concerned.

  26. Given the strength of ALP policy you’d have to say that level pegging in the polls is a pretty good place to be on day one of the campaign. I suspect the Coalition will be worried, and the more concerned they get, the more the cracks will appear.

  27. PPM and approval ratings both seemingly levelling off for Turnbull.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (+2) Disapprove 49 (0) #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 48s48 seconds ago
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 49 (+2) Shorten 27 (-1) #ausvotes

  28. WB,

    I think you have a minor typo under the Galaxy Poll section

    Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and $62 for unfair

  29. And this is only the beginning of the campaign.

    The Coalition will get down and dirty and attempt to appeal to people’s greed. I just think that this type of campaign may have worked during the Mining Boom when Howard successfully played that way but now that people are losing their jobs left, right and centre around the country, and for those still in a job their wages are stagnating, this all makes for completely different atmospherics.

    It’s okay to play ‘To the Manor Born’ when you and your mates have lots of cash to splash around, but when family and friends start to do it tough you just seem like an embarrassment to all concerned if you continue to carry on that way.

    It’s more like a time to batten down the hatches in the economy, make provision for Essential Services so that we’re all looked after with the basics of a good education for the kids, good healthcare for the family, and a good job that pays reasonably well so you can keep a roof over your head and food on the table.

    Bill Shorten offers this. Malcolm Turnbull appears to have kicked the table over after he made you think he cared about it because he talked about the table for a while.

  31. Confessions,
    I gave Turnbull a bit more because he has actually achieved leadership success, even though he’s fumbled it.

  32. This is going to be one tightly fought election.

    That assumes a polling stasis that the evidence simply doesn’t support. Prior to Turnbull the Libs were as good as gone. Turnbull gave them a massive sugar hit, but nothing of substance really changed. Since the beginning of the year the sugar hit has been slowly but steadily wearing off to the point that Labor probably has it’s nose very slightly in front in 2PP terms (but not yet in election winning position).

    But why should the trend stop or reverse now? Certainly we won’t know when it does until well after the fact, but trends don’t usually reverse without some factor driving them. Perhaps the simple fact that we’re now playing for sheep stations will see things turn around for the government, but this has been a singularly incompetent government so that seems a long shot to me and no evidence to support such a supposition has yet appeared even though we’ve known for weeks when the election would be.

    The more likely scenario is simply that Turnbull will continue to bleed support for all the same reasons he’s bled support all year. He hasn’t changed. Also that Shorten and Labor will continue to slowly gather support for the same reasons they have all year. The election will simply put their relative weaknesses and strengths under the spotlight and more people will notice this reality.

    Yes ‘events’ may intervene, Turnbull’s mythical ‘ace up the sleeve’ might actually appear in time, or Labor’s unity and policy coherence may fall apart. But these are all far less likely than the simple answer that the Turnbull and the Libs look like a clueless rabble because they are a clueless rabble, Shorten and Labor look convincing because they have put in the hard yards, and no ‘event’ will occur to switch that any more than ‘events’ have been able to this year.

  36. Was it 36% approval for Mal last time? Thought it was higher than that.
    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m2 minutes ago
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 38 (+2) Disapprove 49 (0) #ausvotes

  38. gecko @ #26 Sunday, May 8, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    Given the strength of ALP policy you’d have to say that level pegging in the polls is a pretty good place to be on day one of the campaign. I suspect the Coalition will be worried, and the more concerned they get, the more the cracks will appear.

    How has Turnbull performed in the last month? How has Shorten performed in the last month? How have their respective teams performed in the last month?

    Which party has policies focussed on middle ground swinging voters? Which has policies focussed on their own base?

    It seems to me that some who are nervous based their fear on the belief that any scare campaign, no matter how ludicrous, will work a treat on people who are so incredibly stupid that they swallow any conservative line out there, even though they are not committed to the right wing.

    For my part, I simply have not seen a day in the last couple of months where the Coalition has had an unambivalently good day. And unless they have some genius tricks up their sleeve, I can’t see any good days coming. Indeed, it seems to me that there is a very great likelihood that any cunning plans that they have in the back pocket would probably embarrass Baldrick.

  40. Ok, so in a week or so we will probably get conformation of whats looking pretty obvious, that there is like, NO “budget bounce”. Much surprisiment.

    And for the beginning of the long campaign, with something of a trend, i’m optimistic that from here its reasonable that the ALP primary will be up there @ 39% or better come July 2. I reckon if it gets there in the next 4 weeks ( 38-39) and is consistent there will be much wetting of pants by Tories.

  41. What is the game plan?
    Who needs to be kept away from the media?
    Who needs to step up?
    Can Windsor win New England and help us?
    The little part I can play is to saturate as many forums, message boards and chat rooms with facts about how much this country has gone backwards under the Abbott/ Turnbull term.
    I am just going to hammer home and drill it into people that this country is worse than it was three years ago and that the Coalition has done nothing to benefit families and the working class. If I get any rubbish suggestions that Turnbull is good for the economy because he was once an investment banker I will laugh in their face and say it does not take much to work in an investment bank. I work in a top Swiss bank and am very unimpressed with the calibre of people who work there.

  43. Bugdet was supposed to be the solution for government’s woes and it hasn’t helped so that’s a win for Labor but anything can happen in a 2 months long election. I am cautiously optimistic for Labor’s chances.

  44. bemused Sunday, May 8, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    What is the economic centre? Part trickle down and part Keynesian?
    You sound confused to me.

    I generally support free trade (not free trade agreements, they’re not the same thing) and globalisation, but trickle down economics is crap. I support competitive (not free, they’re not the same thing either) markets. However, in the case of natural monopolies I definitely see a big role for governments.

    I generally don’t have a problem with foreign ownership (most of people’s objections seem racist) unless it involves vertical integration in an industry. In other words, foreign ownership is generally fine provided the transfer price is reflective of the market.

    I’m pro union, despite never having been a member of one.

  47. Ratsak

    But these are all far less likely than the simple answer that the Turnbull and the Libs look like a clueless rabble because they are a clueless rabble, Shorten and Labor look convincing because they have put in the hard yards, and no ‘event’ will occur to switch that any more than ‘events’ have been able to this year.

    Yeah. I think that’s what I was trying to say at my 10.53pm post.

  48. Ratsak, the reason why the poll trend could stall now is because a lot of voters still believe the things they believed about Labor back in 2013. That Labor is wasteful, mismanaging things like pink batts and school halls etc. All thanks to Murdoch’s beat ups. Labor hasn’t done anything to correct the record, let alone go back further and correct the belief that the Liberals are better economic managers and that Howard was a good PM.

    Sure, polls were crap for the Liberals under Abbott and people wanted him gone, but that doesn’t change the fact that a lot of voters are duped into believing the Liberals represent good governance in general. Again, Labor has done nothing to change the big picture ideas behind why people vote.

  49. If I get any rubbish suggestions that Turnbull is good for the economy because he was once an investment banker I will laugh in their face and say it does not take much to work in an investment bank.

    Investment bankers caused the Global Financial Crisis. That is all you need to know.

  50. What its going to take to shift enough voters now is for more “cigar” moments. Entirely possible yes, but don’t underestimate (you too TPOF) the power of a) the Murdoch media to confuse/scare people and b) the power of the rest of the media to trivialise, misreport and generally make a hash out of Labor’s attempts to see what is overwhelmingly good policy.

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