As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:
• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.
• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.
• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.
I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.
“When someone calls you a racist because you wrote a comment about a twerp who won a Gold Logie (FFS), then, yes, it gets personal.”
Exactly. I usually take anything said online with a grain of salt, but this is a step to far.
[
Ooooh as @timwilsoncomau attacks Waleed with vitroil…he was saving that up
#auspol #thedrum
Was that on The Drum? Anyone see it? I thought Wilson was in favour of free speech by everyone.
]
That was then this is now, Wilson was for free speech when he was on his 300k gig as freedom boy, not that he did much, now he is a Liberal candidate .
[I don’t like Di Natale. I think he’s a bit up himself.”
“Oh no! Does that make me a racist?”
]
I’m going to bang my head against the wall one more time. I think there is an important distinction here between looking like a racist, acting like one, and having a heart that is consciously racist.
With the Goodes saga (and I was on the wrong side of that debate till near the end) we learned that although you might be doing or saying something, say booing a swan because you hate all the swans and you love the bunnies, and you might be doing it without the tiniest morsel of racist motivation, thought or intent, but it is not your pure heart that is important.
But during that saga that the AFL let drag on way too long in the circumstances we learned that the most important opinion was Adam’s and he didn’t hear each boo individually he heard one large strong consistent racist boo. We learned, that like with sexual harassment it isn’t the intent that is important it is the impact. As a society we could have said ‘bad luck for you Adam you are just getting that wrong it isn’t racist at all toughen up mate.’
But we were better than that we accepted that if you are in the choir and singing with the choir then you are going to be characterised with the choir and if the choir as a whole is properly characterised as racist your voice is likely to get the same characterisation. But again the characterisation is the impact, not necessarily the intent.
The whole nomination and victory of Waleed from the start was framed in a context of race and racism. It wasn’t just one media outlet. The acceptance speech last night was explicitly framed by Waleed in terms of race.
In this context if you indulge in the personal critique (up himself, etc etc,) particularly if you so in the absence of an actual detailed specific critique of his work (which is an entirely different thing) then you run a risk that some people are going to perceive you as racist, or more accurately the comments as racist. It was why I used the duck metaphor, if you are saying things that look racist people are entitled to form an opinion. And others are entitled to disagree and have other opinions. People might have the opinion that the Goodes saga had a bad outcome, where I thought it had a fantastic outcome and I learned a lot. I was applying those outcomes and what I learned during the Goodes stuff to the Waleed stuff, maybe that application is not correct.
Equally as Nicholas, in his very good very measured comments (which were of course abused), perhaps it is worth thinking about why we want to ‘not like this guy’, perhaps we don’t always fully understand why we think he is full of himself, it is enough to just know we think he is full of himself, but perhaps we think that because we expect based on his race that he will behave in a different way, a more humble way.
Anyway feel free to resume hating on me.
Bandt’s comments relate to a chapter he has written in a forthcoming book – How to Vote Progressive in Australia: Labor or Green? Edited by Dennis Altman and Sean Scalmer
http://www.publishing.monash.edu/books/hvp-9781925377149.html
John Reidy
He can relax into his real IPA persona now, then.
The Drum replaying on 24 now.
To balance Wilson Linda Burney and Tony Windsor are on the panel
Of course not, but that kind of statement (from Di Natale in the article linked by Vogon Poet) only provides encouragement for me and others like me to preference other parties over the Greens. For example I’m seriously considering given my second preferences to NXT, as I think Xenophon would genuinely try to compromise with Labor in implementing Labor’s agenda. The Greens on the other hand seem only interested in damaging Labor by holding Labor over a barrel and forcing their own agenda on everyone else.
I want progressive policies to be IMPLEMENTED – I will accept 50% progress if 100% is not achievable – the Greens seem to see that kind of compromise (at least with the Labor Party) as anathema. So for me, as much as I like Greens like Waters, SHY, Siewert (and even Rhiannon, who I have a soft spot for), and especially figures like John Kaye who I always voted for and highly respected, I simply find the Greens untrustworthy in IMPLEMENTING progressive policy at the federal level in Australia.
WWP wrote:
No one referred to either his ethnicity OR his religion. That’s the point. You read that into the comments, but you were dead wrong to do so.
I gave reasons for my not being all that enamoured about Waleed Aly, but I’ll be buggered if I’m going to write a “detailed” essay on the subject just to please you, WWP.
You and Guytaur were the ones who brought his ethnicity into it, by reference to some alleged campaign against him winning the Logie award (which, if we didn’t write a sufficiently detailed explanation, we critics would be lumped in with, apparently).No-one else mentioned his ethnic or religious origins.
The only comment I saw before today about his Logie prospects was that he was an “unbackable favourite” against the woman with the helmet hair who sits next to him on The Project (she won last year, I’ve heard). That doesn’t sound like a hate campaign to me, and hardly justifies the accusation that I or anyone else was joining in a Daily Telegraph anti-Aly head-kicking exercise.
That Aly chose to give a sermon about his mate “Mustapha” who was forced to call himself “Mike” or”Bill” or something so he could get a job (I heard this quote on the radio, while half-asleep this morning) has no bearing or connection to my expressed opinion that he’s a bit of a hack when it comes to toeing the Meeja line on politics and political personalities. He says it pretty, but he’s still a hack.
See? No mention of him being Egyptian or a Muslim.
JD
Chris Graham would probably substitute Labor for the Greens in your comment.
His take on Shorten’s announcement today on Aboriginal scholarships for the teaching profession.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/05/09/its-only-day-one-and-robot-bill-shorten-has-already-short-circuited-my-synapses/
BB – Tks.
Specifically, it’s $1.2 million a year, for the most impoverished (and unemployed) folk in the country, for arguably the most important area of life – education. In other words, it’s the perfect Labor Aboriginal affairs policy… all sizzle, no sausage… except that the sizzle is basically inaudible.
Seriously folks, does it get any more uninspiring than this? 400 scholarships for Aboriginal teachers over four years. That’s 100 a year, or broken down further, a dozen scholarships for each state and territory, every 12 months. Wow, how are they ever going to fill that many positions? Way to lift a people out of poverty, Bill.
Never mind the fact that innumerable scholarships already exist – at a state and federal level – to encourage Aboriginal people into teaching. Which is obviously a good thing – most important job in the world.
airlines @ #692 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 6:15 pm
The arrogance of that statement( by Bandt) makes it clear the greens are still the party who prefer 100% of nothing.
WWP
Having read the definition of Covert Racism to remind me of what it actually is. Its not BB. Its not me its not adrian.
Its the media who does the selecting of who gets jobs etc that has the problem. Just as the Oscars selection panel selects the winners of the Oscars.
[If no two of the three major parties would agree to govern together, Bandt said that “sounds to me like a great basis to go back to the people and seek another electoral mandate”.
“We should be unafraid to fight a new election called because Labor wouldn’t accept a reasonable proposal from the Greens for stable, effective and progressive government.”]
Wow, vote green for unstable government and a great chance of a very early return to the polls.
Great opening campaign pitch
The expenses of wind turbine maintenance and parts making them cost more than coal generation doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Why would gear boxes for wind turbines be less reliable and more expensive than equivalent parts for a coal powered turbine?
CTAR, I didn’t think you’d notice.
Excuse me, but is it the red wine, or are you really standing on your head with a big split going down the middle of your face?
[WWP, BW, can speak for himself, you called me racist in what was a total misinterpretation of what I was saying.
Then you refused to accept my correction of what I was saying. ]
I saw you as joining in the hating on Waleed, you picked up a quote about Waleed and ran with it. I made a comment, that was a little too sarcastic, to highlight how the comment looked, and could be taken, in the context. That is still my view.
I accept (and have all afternoon) that your view is that your comment was intended to be simply a comment about schools with good equipment making you physically ill, as odd as that might be, and that you were not saying your near physically illness in anyway related to Waleed not withstanding the stream of discussion did, the quote you included did and the program you referred to all related directly to Waleed.
I accept your position entirely and without reservation, because it is utterly irrelevant to me, it is wonderful that you have the purest heart totally free from racism, I just don’t see how it is relevant.
peg
so if a party has done something in the past which someone doesn’t consider right, then they’re never allowed ever again to do anything to try and improve the situation?
That kind of logic would still see women without the vote, because at one stage all parties opposed it, and it would be hypoctritical of any of them to try and change it.
Pegasus, fair cop on the Intervention but the rest of that “article” is just a variation on the personality politics that you decried in a previous comment, with silly comments about Shorten and Gillard.
Furthermore, Labor opposed cuts to Aboriginal legal and health services, and the Gonksi changes specifically attempts address educational disadvantages faced by Indigenous students.
Finally, Shorten and Labor have recommitted to Closing the Gap – specifically cutting Indigenous incarceration rates.
http://www.alp.org.au/closingthegapjusticetargets
WWP
Our part is when we make comments supporting the discrimination. Unconscious or otherwise. For the unconscious you are referring to as defined as part of covert racism I don’t think this is so is the case of the people in PB.
Why? SBS. I have not heard BB adrian or anyone else here refer to Lee Lin Chin as full of themselves. I have not heard PB posters making disparaging remarks of presenters on SBS but have heard those comments in the general community.
Thats why you are wrong there is no covert racism here. Just honest views on someone. The most you can say is what I have been saying is that a comment may be mistaken for racist when its not.
You can talk about how to tackle covert racism in society without naming one person in PB.
Even my comments on mistaken perception have gone too far as I should have seen the context in which they were being viewed due to your comments. That is my fault.
Of course, none of what I said in my previous comment is to say that Labor shouldn’t continue to improve its policies for Indigenous Australians.
[That Aly chose to give a sermon about his mate “Mustapha” who was forced to call himself “Mike” or”Bill” or something so he could get a job (I heard this quote on the radio, while half-asleep this morning) has no bearing or connection to my expressed opinion that he’s a bit of a hack when it comes to toeing the Meeja line on politics and political personalities. He says it pretty, but he’s still a hack.
See? No mention of him being Egyptian or a Muslim.
]
Yeah I was all over that and agreeing with you hours ago, a little confused you self selected in a different camp to the one I thought you were in.
JD
Did I say anywhere I agreed with the article in its entirety.
However, you are not the only Laborite here who deliberately makes such an assumption in order to have ‘a go’ at me.
[Thats why you are wrong there is no covert racism here.]
Was there any at the goodes football matches with the boos? In your opinion?
Oh goody,
a Greens vs. Labor flame war plus who is/isn’t a racist on PB based on Waleed Ali winning a TV popularity contest and how this might be interpreted, depending on context, of course.
Good grief.
ABC News now leading with Labor split on how to treat AS. Terrific stuff from those who we are assured from the ABC about every 15 minutes, are the most trusted reporters on the planet, really.
I am waiting for Bluey’s report, but I don’t think I can endure both Turnbull and Morrison shouting at me for days on end.
WWP
Yes. That was the general community. Not the small club that is the PB posting community.
Read the covert racism definition from Wikipedia that should help crystallise the issue for you.
[The expenses of wind turbine maintenance and parts making them cost more than coal generation doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Why would gear boxes for wind turbines be less reliable and more expensive than equivalent parts for a coal powered turbine?]
the studies are reliable John, the cost is per MwH, so more wind turbines and parts required to match a typical coal station.
A lot depends of cost of coal, at five year lows now at $45, when coal was around $130 wind was cheaper, coal peaked at $195.
Monica
Oh goody, a Greens vs. Labor flame war plus who is/isn’t a racist on PB
It’s been going nearly all day.
FMD how do you indent a quote now.
http://insidestory.org.au/why-not-new-zealand
OH calling. Time to go and enjoy home cooked mushroom soup made from mushrooms picked today from a local bush park. Doesn’t gt much fresher than that.
Oh goody,
a Greens vs. Labor flame war plus who is/isn’t a racist on PB based on Waleed Ali winning a TV popularity contest
I might just kick of a RGR to break it up Monica.
Pegasus – by offering block quotes from article without any of your own commentary, it comes across to me that you are implicitly endorsing what is said in the article. To me that seems a reasonable assumption. If you don’t want me or others to assume that then you probably should say so.
How am I having a go at you? I was referring to the author’s comments as silly, not your comments. Truly mystifying.
Monica – Scrolling, scrolling, ……
smh: Widespread confusion over the Turnbull government’s proposed building code threatens building projects. https://t.co/iSICeEfZUF
One of Tony Abbott’s strongest backers in the outer western Sydney seat of Lindsay has openly criticised sitting Liberal candidate Fiona Scott for backing Malcolm Turnbull in last year’s leadership ballot.
I tried that earlier Boris. Didn’t work.
Uhlmann did the best TV coverage tonight. Very even handed.
Mikehilliard – to indent enclose blockquote in symbols at the beginning and /blockquote in symbols end of the text you want to indent.
Link
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-09/sex-appeal-mp-accused-of-stabbing-abbott-in-back/7395544
Mikehilliard – the symbols I refer to in my previous comments are the greater than and less than symbols.
Has bluey reported?
[WWP
Yes. That was the general community. Not the small club that is the PB posting community.
Read the covert racism definition from Wikipedia that should help crystallise the issue for you.
]
I am crystal already, but thank you. I also didn’t intend to call anyone racist, rather I failed to make the point that is just isn’t cool to hate on Waleed today, and if you do people might draw the wrong conclusions, but I accept fully that it got lost in the swearing and bad duck metaphor.
I never thought BB was even at risk of people drawing the wrong conclusion. He either self identified or someone else identified him in a post I missed. We know his writing style, I had interpreted his main and substantive point to be a point I agreed with and just noted that I thought some of the other stuff was a bit harsh. Again I wouldn’t have gone there today, but I didn’t think it was a biggy.
Notwithstanding the great strides we appear to have made, it clearly isn’t a subject people are comfortable with, which is interesting of itself.
And if those “some people ” are idiots ?
[I tried that earlier Boris. Didn’t work.]
I’ll give it another go shortly nappin, you might have been using the wrong bait.
The right bait is important depending on the time of day and the type of fish that are around at that time.
mikehilliard @ 728,
it’s absurd, truly.
I’m about to go and have dinner, but will catch up later.
Also I’ve today got linked into the local campaign effort. We’ll certainly win here, I reckon.
Need to understand how we might influence outcomes in the marginals, through the party.
Zoomster can prob ably help.
BFN
is how to quote (without spaces in between of course)
oh ffs
without the |
without the gaps in between 🙂
im not going to bother